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China Diversification (2nd quarter 2026)

The central market is whether the world that produced the last forty years of portfolio construction still exists. The answer, increasingly, is: only partially. Modern mercantilism, AI infrastructure, fiscal pressure, war risk, and the re-pricing of national security are becoming market forces in their own right. Bridgewater has described the current moment as two overlapping “resource grabs”:…

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Risk Building in an AI-Driven Economy (1st quarter 2026)

1. The World in 2026: A New Economic Regime Two powerful forces are reshaping the global economy at the same time. The first is the return of the state as a central economic actor. Governments are increasingly willing to intervene to secure supply chains, protect strategic industries, and strengthen national economic power. The second is the extraordinary surge in artificial intelligence…

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4th quarter 2025

Valuations, Bubbles, and the Temptation to Outguess the Market This year of market buoyancy is making investors uneasy. It isn’t only because prices are rising—it’s because they often rise faster than conviction. When central bankers express discomfort, when seasoned macro thinkers warn of bubble dynamics, and when geopolitics increasingly weaponizes currencies and capital flows, investors feel…

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Staying Focused in Essential Financial Goals (3rd quarter 2025)

Staying the Course Amidst Noise The financial world is entering yet another phase of turbulence. The headlines of this quarter revolve around three major forces: uncertainty around the US dollar, the escalation of new global conflicts, and the relentless march of artificial intelligence. Each has the potential to unsettle markets, but none should deter investors from their long-term course. The…

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Reflections on April (2nd quarter 2025)

Contrarian opportunity in April 2025 April 2025 delivered one of the most emotionally jarring sequences in recent market history. The major equity indices—S&P 500, NASDAQ, and MSCI World—plummeted nearly 10% in the first two trading days when headlines were dominated by fears of trade war escalation. Yet by month-end, these indices had remarkably rebounded, sitting within 1% of their levels at…

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AI and overvaluation risk (Q1 2025)

The first quarter of 2025 has been marked by significant geopolitical events and the extraordinary rise of Chinese AI, particularly with the emergence of DeepSeek. This update explores the implications of AI developments on personal asset allocation. DeepSeek Assessment The rapid advancement of AI has led to an increase in speculation and misinformation in the media. According to Bridgewater…

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Vanguard Model Portfolio and 2025 Asset Allocation

For Swiss investors, considering the Vanguard model portfolio may be a good starting point to build a solid portfolio. Vanguard Approch on Asset Allocation Given today’s uncertain environment, it is crucial for investors to remain disciplined and avoid panic-driven decisions. Vanguard’s Model Portfolio provides a framework for long-term investment allocation, offering different risk profiles…

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Sources for investors entering 2025 (4th quarter 2024)

For our last yearly review, we look at insightful perspectives from three reference investors: a provocative contrarian, a global macro and a value investor: Searching for Value Amidst High Asset Prices The provocative contrarian Marc Faber, in his Gloom Boom Doom report, raises critical questions about the sustainability of current asset valuations. He highlights a growing dichotomy between…

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Sources pour les investisseurs à l'horizon 2025 (4ème trimestre 2024)

Pour notre dernière revue annuelle, nous examinons les points de vue éclairés de trois investisseurs de référence : un contrarian provocateur, un global macro et un investisseur « value » : À la recherche de valeur dans un contexte de prix élevés des actifs Dans son rapport « Gloom Boom Doom », l’anticonformiste provocateur Marc Faber soulève des questions cruciales sur la durabilité des…

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Eisman, Damodoran, BlackRock and DBS (3rd quarter 2024)

3rd quarter 2024 Overview The global financial landscape experienced notable turbulence at the beginning of August, marked by a downturn and a sharp increase in market volatility. According to BlackRock, we are navigating an unprecedented post-pandemic economic environment characterized by persistent inflation, higher interest rates, lower trend growth, and high government debt. This…

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Eisman, Damodoran, BlackRock and DBS (3ème trimestre 2024)

Troisième trimestre 2024 Aperçu général Le paysage financier mondial a connu des turbulences notables au début du mois d’août, marqué par un repli et une forte hausse de la volatilité des marchés. Selon BlackRock, nous naviguons dans un contexte économique post-pandémique sans précédent caractérisé par une inflation persistante, des taux d’intérêt plus élevés, une croissance tendancielle plus…

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Reference investors, the Chinese question and vehicles (2nd quarter 2024)

Market sentiment Looking ahead , the global economic outlook points to slower growth. While consumer spending is expected to remain positive, albeit at a slower pace than last year, some benchmark investors are showing signs of caution. For example, Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position will probably reach $200 billion by the end of the current quarter, said Warren Buffett. This indicates that…

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Investisseurs de référence, question chinoise et véhicules (2ème trimestre 2024)

Sentiments des marchés À l’horizon 2024, les perspectives économiques mondiales laissent entrevoir un ralentissement de la croissance, tandis que la Réserve fédérale a maintenu les taux d’intérêt à 5,25 %-5,5 %, avec des réductions potentielles attendues d’ici la mi-2024 si les tendances inflationnistes continuent de se modérer. Alors que les dépenses de consommation devraient rester positives,…

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Principes, bulle, Etats-Unis et Chine (1er trimestre 2024)

Pour ce début d’année, nous passons en revues la dernière lettre de W. Buffett à ces actionnaires, la situation des marchés aux Etats-Unis, en Chine et dans d’autres géographies, et terminons par quelques considérations pratiques. Principes de W. Buffett Dans sa lettre aux investisseurs de Berkshire sur l’exercice 2023, W. Buffett suite rappelle ses grands principes d’investissements suite à la…

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Principles, bubble, US and China (1st quarter 2024)

At the start of this year, we review W. Buffett’s latest letter to his shareholders, the market situation in the USA, China and other geographies, and conclude with a few practical considerations. W. Buffett’s principles In his letter to Berkshire investors for the 2023 financial year, W. Buffett recalls his main investment principles following the death of his partner C. Munger: Seek out…

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An Asian investment year 2024 (4th quarter 2023)

For this final update of the year, we take a look at the risks from a global macro perspective, a more detailed evaluation at the currency and equity situation in Asia, and finish with some thoughts on possible entry points for self-made and serious equity investors. Risks and caution in 2024 Will 2024 offer a favorable environment for risky assets? For Oaktree, the environment  may continue…

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Une année 2024 asiatique (4ème trimestre 2023)

Pour ce dernier update de l’année, nous allons faire une courte revue de certains risques d’un point global macro en 2024, une appréciation plus détaillée de la situation des monnaie et des actions en Asie, et terminer avec quelques réflexions sur de possible points d’entrées pour les investisseurs self-made en actions. Risques et prudence en 2024 2024 offrira-t’il un environnement favorable…

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