Best Picture: A battle of giants
The nominees are:
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
2008: No Country for Old Men vs. There Will Be Blood 2014: 12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity 2026: One Battle After Another vs. Sinners
Best Picture often comes down to two films, but for the third time this century we have two absolutely monumental films facing off — films that would undeniably win Best Picture in any other year.
We know this is a two-horse race. Both have won everything they need to in order to make a Best Picture win possible. No matter who wins, stats will be broken, as the other film will be the very first instance of a movie having a specific awards haul and failing to win Best Picture. OBAA has been the frontrunner for months, but Sinners has a record 16 Oscar nominations and seemingly all the momentum. So who is going to win?
Let me break it down why I think One Battle After Another is going to win over Sinners:
OBAA has won the top prize basically *everywhere* — Golden Globes, Critic's Choice, BAFTA, PGA, DGA, WGA, and a whole bunch of guild awards. The only thing it really missed was SAG Ensemble, which isn't the same as a Best Picture award.
Many people think OBAA might be a frontrunner like La La Land, 1917, or Power of the Dog — eventually losing steam to allow a more "popular" pick to win. I'd argue that in those cases, the frontrunners all began to show signs of weakness at some point, eventually losing awards along the way. In the case of La La Land, there was also controversy that discouraged people for voting for it. This isn't the case with OBAA. Yes, Sinners has gotten stronger as the season has progressed, but OBAA has not gotten weaker.
I think a lot of people drank the Sinners juice after SAG but we don't really know how that plays out with the full Academy. Yes, it's true that actors are the largest branch, but they still account for only 15% of the Academy, and SAG as a whole is quite a bit different that the elite Academy acting voting members. I'm not saying that the enthusiasm for Sinners after SAG wasn't palpable or didn't translate at all. I just think it's a bit of a stretch to say that it represents an entire industry shift.
Sinners getting 16 Oscar nominations is a huge deal. The previous record was 14, so even without the new casting category, Sinners would have broken the record. That definitely means something, but it doesn't mean it's a lock for Best Picture. La La Land led with 14 nominations; Emilia Pérez with 13; Power of the Dog with 12. OBAA itself has 13 nominations, which is an amazing haul.
I think this all comes down the preferential ballot. This race is so ridiculously close, it will definitely go down to the 8th and final ballot, which means it will matter what's higher on the ballots cast for the other films. Are the people who voted for Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value (probably #3, 4, and 5) going to have OBAA or Sinners higher up on their ballot? I suspect simply because of genre, Sinners is more likely to be lower on a greater number of ballots.
It's ridiculous to think that a film with 16 Oscar nominations won't win Best Picture or Best Director and could potentially get shut out of the acting awards too. (It could get 0; it'll probably get 1; it could get 2 or even 3. This year is crazy.) It doesn't seem fair and it doesn't seem right.
But only one film can win Best Picture. Whoever loses will join the ranks of Citizen Kane, The Shawshank Redemption, Saving Private Ryan, and Brokeback Mountain. That's pretty good company.
There were a lot of great films in 2025. (Be sure to read my picks for the best of them.) As excellent as many of these nominees are, most will be relegated to the memory of Oscar nominees past. (How many of the other nominated Best Pictures from 2008 and 2014 can you name?!) But OBAA and Sinners will likely live on as masterpieces of the craft. We should be celebrating them both, regardless of who wins.
Who will win: One Battle After Another
But look out for: Sinners
Who I'd vote for: Sinners
If I could add one more: Sorry, Baby
◄ Previous: Best Director | Next: Top 10 of 2025 ►
INTRODUCTION | FEATURES AND SHORTS: International Feature | Animated Feature | Documentary Feature | Live Action Short | Animated Short | Documentary Short | TRADE CRAFTS: Cinematography | Film Editing | Production Design | Costume Design | Makeup and Hairstyling | Sound | Visual Effects | Original Score | Original Song | Casting | TOP CATEGORIES: Original Screenplay | Adapted Screenplay | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Actor | Actress | Director | Picture | TOP 10 FILMS OF 2025








