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Best Picture: A battle of giants

The nominees are:

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

2008: No Country for Old Men vs. There Will Be Blood 2014: 12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity 2026: One Battle After Another vs. Sinners

Best Picture often comes down to two films, but for the third time this century we have two absolutely monumental films facing off — films that would undeniably win Best Picture in any other year.

We know this is a two-horse race. Both have won everything they need to in order to make a Best Picture win possible. No matter who wins, stats will be broken, as the other film will be the very first instance of a movie having a specific awards haul and failing to win Best Picture. OBAA has been the frontrunner for months, but Sinners has a record 16 Oscar nominations and seemingly all the momentum. So who is going to win?

Let me break it down why I think One Battle After Another is going to win over Sinners:

OBAA has won the top prize basically *everywhere* — Golden Globes, Critic's Choice, BAFTA, PGA, DGA, WGA, and a whole bunch of guild awards. The only thing it really missed was SAG Ensemble, which isn't the same as a Best Picture award.

Many people think OBAA might be a frontrunner like La La Land, 1917, or Power of the Dog — eventually losing steam to allow a more "popular" pick to win. I'd argue that in those cases, the frontrunners all began to show signs of weakness at some point, eventually losing awards along the way. In the case of La La Land, there was also controversy that discouraged people for voting for it. This isn't the case with OBAA. Yes, Sinners has gotten stronger as the season has progressed, but OBAA has not gotten weaker.

I think a lot of people drank the Sinners juice after SAG but we don't really know how that plays out with the full Academy. Yes, it's true that actors are the largest branch, but they still account for only 15% of the Academy, and SAG as a whole is quite a bit different that the elite Academy acting voting members. I'm not saying that the enthusiasm for Sinners after SAG wasn't palpable or didn't translate at all. I just think it's a bit of a stretch to say that it represents an entire industry shift.

Sinners getting 16 Oscar nominations is a huge deal. The previous record was 14, so even without the new casting category, Sinners would have broken the record. That definitely means something, but it doesn't mean it's a lock for Best Picture. La La Land led with 14 nominations; Emilia Pérez with 13; Power of the Dog with 12. OBAA itself has 13 nominations, which is an amazing haul.

I think this all comes down the preferential ballot. This race is so ridiculously close, it will definitely go down to the 8th and final ballot, which means it will matter what's higher on the ballots cast for the other films. Are the people who voted for Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value (probably #3, 4, and 5) going to have OBAA or Sinners higher up on their ballot? I suspect simply because of genre, Sinners is more likely to be lower on a greater number of ballots.

It's ridiculous to think that a film with 16 Oscar nominations won't win Best Picture or Best Director and could potentially get shut out of the acting awards too. (It could get 0; it'll probably get 1; it could get 2 or even 3. This year is crazy.) It doesn't seem fair and it doesn't seem right.

But only one film can win Best Picture. Whoever loses will join the ranks of Citizen Kane, The Shawshank Redemption, Saving Private Ryan, and Brokeback Mountain. That's pretty good company.

There were a lot of great films in 2025. (Be sure to read my picks for the best of them.) As excellent as many of these nominees are, most will be relegated to the memory of Oscar nominees past. (How many of the other nominated Best Pictures from 2008 and 2014 can you name?!) But OBAA and Sinners will likely live on as masterpieces of the craft. We should be celebrating them both, regardless of who wins.

Who will win: One Battle After Another

But look out for: Sinners

Who I'd vote for: Sinners

If I could add one more: Sorry, Baby

◄ Previous: Best Director | Next: Top 10 of 2025 ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Best Picture #Bugonia #F1 #Frankenstein #Hamnet #Marty Supreme #One Battle After Another #The Secret Agent #Sentimental Value #Sinners #Train Dreams #Paul Thomas Anderson #Ryan Coogler

Director: PTA's turn

The nominees are:

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

This really is a two-man race, between Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler.

I feel really bad for PTA. In 2007, he writes and directs There Will Be Blood — one of the greatest films of the 21st century. But it comes out the same year as No Country for Old Men, another juggernaut. Now, he's written and directed a masterpiece in OBAA and it has to go up against the most nominated film in Oscar history.

Whether or not OBAA takes home the night's top prize, I think the Academy will still bestow him with Best Actor. Ever since Boogie Nights, he has been showing his Oscar-worthiness. This is is his fourth nomination for Best Director, and everyone knows it's his time.

There is a reality where Oscar voters may have selected OBAA as Best Picture and give Coogler Best Director to balance things off. A Coogler win would also be extremely historic and meaningful, as he'd be the first Black person to win Best Director. (Even when Barry Jenkins and Steve McQueen's films won Best Picture, they didn't win Best Director.)

Coogler winning could shake things up a bit, but I don't think this is the more likely scenario. What's more likely is that PTA wins and gets a raucous standing ovation.

And then everyone sits on tenterhooks for them to announce Best Picture.

Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

But look out for: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Who I'd vote for: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

If I could add one more: Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

◄ Previous: Best Actress | Next: Best Picture ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Best Director #Chloé Zhao #Hamnet #Josh Safdie #Marty Supreme #Paul Thomas Anderson #One Battle After Another #Joachim Trier #Sentimental Value #Ryan Coogler #Sinners

Actress: Oscar winner, thy name is Jessie

The nominees are:

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

So many of the top prizes (acting, directing, picture) are in hotly contested this year. Even Supporting Actor, which is heavily weighted toward Sean Penn, can still fall to someone else. But if there's one sure bet on Oscar night, it's that Jessie Buckley will win the Oscar for Best Actress in a Leading Role for her performance as Agnes in Hamnet.

Buckley traverses the gamut of human emotion and expression throughout the film. With unrivaled, raw intensity, she delivers a visceral portrayal of a mother's grief. It's not just the best performance in this category, but the best performance of the year and one of the best of the decade thus far.

Rose Byrne is brilliant in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, but the film simply didn't have enough juice to give her the boost she needed. I'm not sure it would've helped anyway. Buckley is just too good. But she might've been able to make it close.

Renate Reinsve delivers another excellent performance in Sentimental Value. I hope she wins a top acting prize someday.

Emma Stone is excellent in Bugonia, but I actually think Jesse Plemons is the stronger performance in that movie. It's disappointing that he's not getting more buzz.

Kate Hudson should have won for Almost Famous 25 years ago. I'll just leave it there.

Who will win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

But look out for: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Who I'd vote for: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

If I could add one more: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

◄ Previous: Best Actor | Next: Best Director ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Best Actress #Jessie Buckley #Hamnet #Rose Byrne #If I Had Legs I'd Kick You #Kate Hudson #Song Sung Blue #Renate Reinsve #Sentimental Value #Emma Stone #Bugonia

Actor: The monumental collapse of Timothée Chalamet

The nominees are:

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Timothée Chalamet had won this year's Best Actor Oscar within a few seconds after losing last year's. Everyone already knew that he was going to come back strong in Marty Supreme. Before anyone had even viewed a frame, there was a lot of hype about the new Josh Safdie movie, and everyone expected Timmy to be great in it. All that was left was for the movie to deliver.

And it did. Marty Supreme met all expectations. The film was exceptional and Timmy did his part, hyping the heck out of it. People forget this now, but he was actually being lauded by many in the industry for his unorthodox campaign in the early months to get people out to the theaters to watch his film.

I say people forget that, because now the Chalamet's public image is very different. People see the self-promotion as an extension of some sort of entitlement, like he believes he's owed an Oscar. It's almost as if he's never stopped playing Marty Mauser — that he's still this overconfident hot shot, so convinced of his own superiority that he needs to let the world know about it.

Let's not beat around the bush here — Chalamet is an exceptional talent. He only just turned 30 and he's already been nominated for Best Actor three times. Marty Supreme is the eighth (EIGHTH!) film he's starred in that's been nominated for Best Picture. When the annals of 21st century cinema are written, Chalamet may very go down as one of the greatest actors of the century. The question among those in Hollywood right now is whether they need to recognize him right now.

His speech at the SAG awards last year rubbed many the wrong way. Actors aren't supposed to express a desire to be great. (He acknowledged that in his speech.) He idolizes great athletes like Michael Jordan and Michael Phelps, and adopts an approach to acting like training for the Olympics. But the competitive athlete mentality doesn't mesh well with the collaborative nature of the arts. Even if that competition is with yourself, artists have a hard time coming around to that way of thinking.

Timmy started off the season strong, winning a host of Critics' prizes, culminating in the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe. When he lost the BAFTA, it was easy to write it off as the Brits giving the award to someone from their home turf, but it showed there were cracks in the armor. When Timmy lost at SAG to Michael B. Jordan, it showed that there was real competition. Viola Davis's celebration showed just how much love there could be in the wings for Jordan as a viable alternative to Timmy. Actors only make up about 15% of the Academy, but it's still the biggest branch.

Jordan has everything going for him right now: His movie may sweep; he won the SAG in the middle of Oscar voting; he's 9 years older than Chalamet and has never been awarded. And everything is working against Timmy at the moment: his movie isn't winning any prizes other than the ones he wins, and he's put his foot in his mouth on several occasions ("ballet and opera" anyone?).

There's also the fact that it's been six years since the Academy has selected four white acting winners. (The other three frontrunners are white, although Supporting Actress may go to a Black performer.)

Just about every Oscar expert I know has switched their prediction from Timmy to Michael B. Jordan, and I have to say, it's the smart choice. Judging on everything I've seen from previous years, that's sort of what I would expect to happen.

But I've been a fan of Timmy's for a decade. And more than that, I think he deserves this Oscar. I think it's the second best performance of the year (behind only Jessie Buckley in Hamnet). I'm going to *hope* that Timmy was in fact 2nd choice at the BAFTAs and that SAG just didn't vote for him because he won last year, and perhaps there's enough leftover love in the non-actor branches of the Academy for him from his performance last year to add to his great work this year.

But it may be written in the stars. The one actor Timmy's been compared to his whole adult life is Leonardo DiCaprio. If Timmy really is the new Leo, then it makes complete sense that the Academy will make him wait, too.

In a sense, it would be better if Timmy didn't win this year. He's facing headwinds in Hollywood right now and if his name is called on Oscar night, the reception might be tepid. For such a talented actor, I'd wish for his inevitable Oscar win to be greeted with thunderous applause and a thousand smiles.

In any case, I'm going out on a limb and sticking with Timmy, even though I know it's a long shot at this point. If MBJ wins, I'll understand, and I'll be upset I missed such an easy lay-up. But if Timmy wins, I'll be really glad I stuck to my guns.

One final note: Can we just have a moment to acknowledge how ridiculously strong this category is? Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) and Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) aren't here despite extraordinary performances, and I'm not even mad about it.

Who will win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

But look out for: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Who I'd vote for: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

If I could add one more: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

◄ Previous: Best Supporting Actress | Next: Best Actress ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Best Actor #Timothée Chalamet #Marty Supreme #Leonardo DiCaprio #One Battle After Another #Ethan Hawke #Blue Moon #Michael B. Jordan #Sinners #Wagner Moura #The Secret Agent

Supporting Actress: A Race to Watch

The nominees are:

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

This is the most up-in-the-air of all the acting awards, which is a fresh change of pace, given that this category has often been a lock in recent years (Zoe Saldaña, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Ariana DeBose, Laura Dern).

Madigan's SAG win (to go along with her Critics Choice prize) changes the race from an "anyone's game" to placing her firmly in the driver's seat. But she's by no means secure.

Teyana Taylor only has a Golden Globe win, which isn't usually enough, but her film may win Best Picture. Wunmi Mosaku has the more important BAFTA win, but she may have had home-field advantage. Her film is very strong, though.

It's a shame that the two Sentimental Value actresses aren't really in the discussion. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas gives my second favorite performnce in this category. It's subtle, but powerful — still, not likely to move the needle on her ballot count. I'm ecstatic for Elle Fanning that she finally has a nomination, and it's fiitting that the entire quartet was nominated, but she's a clear #5 here.

Amy Madigan has less than 15 minutes screen time in Weapons, yet she is omnipresent throughout the film. That's the sign of an interesting character brought to life fully by a remarkable performance.

Who will win: Amy Madigan, Weapons

But look out for: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Who I'd vote for: Amy Madigan, Weapons

If I could add one more: Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme

◄ Previous: Best Supporting Actor | Next: Best Actor ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Best Supporting Actress #Elle Fanning #Sentimental Value #Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas #Amy Madigan #Weapons #Wunmi Mosaku #Sinners #Teyana Taylor #One Battle After Another

Supporting Actor: A third Oscar for Sean Penn?

The nominees are:

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Talk about a comeback story. After seeing Sean Penn's performance in OBAA, I assumed he was going to be the frontrunner for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. I figured it might be a tight contest with Stellen Skarsgård (though I hadn't seen Sentimental Value yet), given that Penn has won two Oscars and Skarsgård has never won.

Then Benicio Del Toro started winning all the critics prizes. Then Jacob Elordi won the Critics Choice. And I was thoroughly confused. And then Skarsgård won the Globe, so I figured he was back in the driver's seat because he was likely to win the BAFTA. And then Penn won the BAFTA. And that changed things.

Skarsgård losing at BAFTA showed that his support was fractured. Penn winning at BAFTA showed that his performance in OBAA could in fact win a large industry prize. After he won SAG, the contest was over. What was shaping up to be a "who the hell knows" race may just be written in stone at this point.

I'm okay with this, as I think Penn probably did give the best performance in the category this year. I also really liked Skarsgård's performance and I would've been rooting for him to win an Oscar and for Sentimental Value to salvage something from this year. But that likelihood is slipping away.

Sinners might bring along Delroy Lindo if it has a great night, but there's not anything in the precursors or the current vibe to make me think it's likely. It's been 25 years since someone won an acting Oscar without being nominated for any of the precursors. But if Sinners is really that strong, it could happen.

If Penn does win, I can't wait to see what political topic he brings up during his acceptance speech (if he even shows up) and which powerful figure he chooses to tick off. It'll be chaotic and beautiful.

Who will win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

But look out for: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Who I'd vote for: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

If I could add one more: Kayo Martin, The Plague

◄ Previous: Adapted Screenplay | Next: Best Supporting Actress ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Best Supporting Actor #Benicio Del Toro #One Battle After Another #Jacob Elordi #Frankenstein #Delroy Lindo #Sinners #Sean Penn #Stellan Skarsgård #Sentimental Value

Adapted Screenplay: You can't spell 'Adapted' without 'P,' 'T,' and 'A'

The nominees are:

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Train Dreams

Before this year, Paul Thomas Anderson had been nominated for 11 Academy Awards, including 5 screenplay nominations for Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, Inherent Vice, and Licorice Pizza. It's a little bit nuts that he's never won. The Academy will be absolutely aching to give him this award.

And it's so well deserved. No other film this year so skillfully blends genres, providing high octane thrills without sacrificing character connections or emotional investment, and meeting the zeitgeist all at the same time.

Adapted Screenplay is even more of a done deal than Original Screenplay. In fact, the one time there was no Adapted-Original split (the Golden Globes), OBAA bested Sinners. And it's won every Adapted prize — Critics Choice, BAFTA, and WGA.

Who will win: One Battle After Another

But look out for: Hamnet

Who I'd vote for: One Battle After Another

If I could add one more: No Other Choice

◄ Previous: Original Screenplay | Next: Best Supporting Actor ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Adapted Screenplay #Bugonia #Frankenstein #Hamnet #One Battle After Another #Train Dreams

Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler's 'for sure' Oscar

The nominees are:

Blue Moon

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The two screenplay awards have pretty much been wrapped up since the start of awards season. Sinners will take home original screenplay by virtue of being a truly original work of art that authentically roots itself in Black history and identity, effectively building a mythology that explores the truth of the Black experience.

Its strongest competition might be Sentimental Value, which, though not as original a story, presents us with the most fascinating characters stories and some of the most ingenious use of dialogue to advance character exposition and development. It is a profound and moving portrait of complicated family dynamics — nothing fantastical, but something very familiar to our everyday lives.

But Sinners is sure to win, and the crowd will erupt when Ryan Coogler walks on stage to accept his Oscar. The film won at Critics Choice, WGA, and perhaps most importantly, BAFTA, which was the platform it was most likely to miss. With an Oscar win on Sunday, it'll run the table.

The film's box office success is evidence that Hollywood should invest in original stories with punch rather than rehashing the same old fodder just because they think it will bring in a buck. We need more movies like Sinners.

Who will win: Sinners

But look out for: Sentimental Value

Who I'd vote for: Sinners

If I could add one more: Sorry, Baby

◄ Previous: Casting | Next: Adapted Screenplay ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Original Screenplay #Blue Moon #It Was Just an Accident #Marty Supreme #Sentimental Value #Sinners #Ryan Coogler

Casting: Who will win the inaugural Oscar?

The nominees are:

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sinners

In a sense, this is a bit of a shot in the dark, because no one really knows how this award is going to go. It's the first new Oscar in a quarter of a century, so there are no patterns to observe and no expectations.

Will the Casting Oscar reward films with multiple nominations (Sentimental Value isn't here...) or focus more on how casting directors fill out all the smaller roles? Will there be a preference for larger ensembles? Will it tend to come along with another acting prize? Will it evolve into sort of a consolation Best Picture prize?

What we do have to go on is how this award has panned out in other ceremonies and with other awards bodies. It might be an easier task this year that in most, because the general consensus seems to be that this belongs to Sinners.

The film won Best Casting at the Critics Choice and SAG awards, although it missed at BAFTAs to I Swear, the home-grown favorite. Casting director Francine Maisler is also a legend in the industry and it's likely people will readily vote for her.

Even without the precursors, it seems like this would've come down to OBAA vs. Sinners anyway, and voters may very well have just given it to the movie they didn't vote for in Best Picture.

But we'll just have to wait and see.

Who will win: Sinners

But look out for: One Battle After Another

Who I'd vote for: Sinners

If I could add one more: Sirāt OR The Plague

◄ Previous: Original Song | Next: Original Screenplay ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Best Casting #Hamnet #Marty Supreme #One Battle After Another #The Secret Agent #Sinners

Original Song: K-Pop's turn

The nominees are:

"Dear Me," Diane Warren: Relentless

"Golden," KPop Demon Hunters

"I Lied to You," Sinners

"Sweet Dreams of Joy," Viva Verdi!

"Train Dreams," Train Dreams

"Golden" is officially one of the most popular songs ever, spending 20 weeks at #1 on the global Billboard charts and broke several records. It's won every precursor, including the Grammy. This is "Let It Go" on steroids. There's a 0% chance this song doesn't win.

Which is too bad. It's not the I don't like K-Pop. I don't have anything against the genre. I just think the song is regular, conventional pop and there's nothing that special about it. (I also don't understand all the fuss around Taylor Swift, so clearly I'm in the minority here.)

I think "I Lied to You" from Sinners would've been a better option for Academy voters, and it's so well integrated into the storytelling as well. But my favorite of the songs is actually "Sweet Dreams of Joy" — which isn't a surprise considering my classical music background. Check out Ana María Martínez's performance. It's stunning!

Note to the Academy: You don't always need to nominate Diane Warren. You're just gonna keep disappointing her.

Who will win: "Golden," KPop Demon Hunters

But look out for: "I Lied to You," Sinners

Who I'd vote for: "Sweet Dreams of Joy," Viva Verdi!

If I could add one more: "Our Love," The Ballad of Wallis Island

◄ Previous: Original Score | Next: Casting ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Original Song #Diane Warren: Relentless #KPop Demon Hunters #Sinners #Viva Verdi!#Train Dreams #Golden #I Lied to You

Original Score: 'Sinners' a deserving winner

The nominees are:

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

With Oscars already in the bag for Black Panther and Oppenheimer, Swedish composer Ludwig Göransson is already establishing himself as the next great film composer, in the vein of John Williams, Hans Zimmer, and Howard Shore.

Given the strength of the film, there's not much of a world where Sinners doesn't win the Oscar for Best Original Score, having picked up the award at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTAs, and the guild.

Alexandre Desplat is the other very recognizable name in this category, with 2 Oscars in 11 previous nominations. There's an off-chance voters may go for his Frankenstein score. There was also some talk about Johnny Greenwood's score for OBAA, but this seems in the bag for Göransson and Sinners.

Which seems appropriate, the score is quite remarkable, fusing Delta blues with electronic fusion, and crafting a sound that's authentic both to both the period and the story.

Note to the Academy: There are many different genres of music, and so there are many different genres of film music. You can start recognizing non-traditional entries, like Challengers (which should have won last year), Marty Supreme and Sirāt.

Who will win: Sinners

But look out for: One Battle After Another

Who I'd vote for: Sinners

If I could add one more: Marty Supreme

◄ Previous: Visual Effects | Next: Original Song ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Original Score #Bugonia #Frankenstein #Hamnet #One Battle After Another #Sinners

Visual Effects: Na'Vay 'Avatar' doesn't win

The nominees are:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Jurassic World: Rebirth

The Lost Bus

Sinners

We don't really need to discuss this. Does anyone think that Avatar isn't going to win?

It's a very deserving win, too. The VFX are far ahead of anything anyone else is doing. It's good to know the Avatar films are still good for something.

Unless Sinners has just the greatest night in Oscar history, this is a done deal.

Who will win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

But look out for: Sinners (not really, though)

Who I'd vote for: Avatar: Fire and Ash

If I could add one more: How to Train Your Dragon

◄ Previous: Sound | Next: Original Score ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Visual Effects #Avatar: Fire and Ash #F1 #Jurassic World: Rebirth #The Lost Bus #Sinners

Sound: Will 'F1' cross the finish line?

The nominees are:

F1

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Sirāt

I liked F1. I did. I thought it was a fun movie and I enjoyed it. I don't really think it should figure so heavily in this year's Oscar conversation though. Best Picture? Definitely not. Four nominations is quite a haul. Sound is one I can't really argue with, though, and it very well might win.

But it wouldn't be my choice. It wasn't the guild's choice either. (Their three awards went to Sinners, Frankenstein, and Sirāt.)

But F1 has been cleaning up at the broader gigs, taking home both the BAFTA and the Critics Choice. Most folks have it as the front runner, with the caveat that it all depends on the type of night Sinners is going to have.

My personal pick would be Sirāt's immersive and visceral acoustic experience. But the Academy has often shown its aversion to techno-style sound techniques, so we'll count its nomination here as a win.

Who will win: F1

But look out for: Sinners

Who I'd vote for: Sirāt

If I could add one more: Warfare

◄ Previous: Makeup and Hairstyling | Next: Visual Effects ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Sound Mixing and Editing #F1 #Frankenstein #One Battle After Another #Sinners #Sirāt

Makeup and Hairstyling: 'Frankenstein' may be vulnerable

The nominees are:

Frankenstein

Kokuho

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

The Ugly Stepsister

This should be the third in Frankenstein's set of awards, again having cleaned up at the precursors. OBAA and Sinners also performed well at the guild awards in their respective categories, with Sinners besting Frankenstein in two head-to-heads.

But I think Frankenstein is just so showy that it's likely to catch the attention of the general Oscar voter more so than the guilds. Still, if Sinners is gearing up for a sweep, this one might just get swept along with it. Stay tuned.

Who will win: Frankenstein

But look out for: Sinners

Who I'd vote for: Frankenstein

If I could add one more: Weapons

◄ Previous: Costume Design | Next: Sound ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Makeup #Hairstyling #Frankenstein #Kokuho #Sinners #The Smashing Machine #The Ugly Stepsister

Costume Design: Can 'Sinners' upset 'Frankenstein'?

The nominees are:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners

This is another category in which Frankenstein has won all the key precursors — Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the guild award. Faltering at the Oscars would be unlikely, but there is a wildcard...

Ruth E. Carter won this Oscar in 2019 and 2023 for her work on the two Black Panther movies. In 2023, she won Critics Choice early in the season, didn't win the guild award, and wasn't even nominated at BAFTA. Her win wasn't a surprised because she is a beloved figure in Hollywood, but she wasn't the frontrunner.

If her film has a spectacular night, she might just just ride the Sinners train to her third Oscar.

Who will win: Frankenstein

But look out for: Sinners

Who I'd vote for: Frankenstein

If I could add one more: Hedda

◄ Previous: Production Design | Next: Makeup and Hairstyling ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Costume Design #Avatar: Fire and Ash #Frankenstein #Hamnet #Marty Supreme #Sinners

Production Design: To Victor goes the spoils

The nominees are:

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The handmade sets of Frankenstein are truly next level — the 130-foot ship and the water tower laboratory are particularly grand — operatic, even. These make it a clear frontrunner for this award. It also has the guild award, the BAFTA, and the Critics Choice.

Sinners may be the closest runner up, not merely because of its status as the top nominated film, but based on the merit of recreating historically accurate environments that provide for 360-degree exploration.

OBAA *maybe* has an outside chance, as it won the guild award for contemporary film, but it would need a sweeping night to do, and that doesn't appear to be on the books.

The fact that Wicked: For Good isn't here just goes to show how much the Academy did not care for it.

Who will win: Frankenstein

But look out for: Sinners

Who I'd vote for: Frankenstein

If I could add one more: The Phoenician Scheme

◄ Previous: Film Editing | Next: Costume Design ►

#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Production Design #Frankenstein #Hamnet #Marty Supreme #One Battle After Another #Sinners

Film Editing: 'One Battle' a cut above the rest

The nominees are:

F1

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

For the last three years, the Best Picture winner has also won Best Editing. This has led people to believe that the awards may be tied somehow. They seem to forget, though, that for the nine years before, the Editing winner did *not* win Best Picture, and in fact only once in that 12-year span did it pan out that way.

The more likely rationale is that when there isn't a clear editing winner, Oscar voters tend to just go along with Best Picture. That sure seemed to be the case last year with Anora. Editing was the award it wasn't really supposed to win, but it did, and it made it clear that it was going to sweep the night.

So look out for editing on Sunday. OBAA actually deserves this award and should win it if it's going to win Best Picture.

People may have F1 as the one to watch here, but it's possible Sinners is the bigger threat. It won the ACE award for Drama (OBAA won for Comedy) ahead of F1. If Sinners has a big night, it may bring along the editing award with it. So look for it early on in the evening as it may be a Best Picture predictor.

That being said, I still think it's also very possible that OBAA wins Editing and Sinners wins Best Picture anyway.

Don't discount F1, though. Stephen Mirrione is well known in the industry, having won an Oscar before. This is his fourth nomination, but the first for the other two.

I also really want to give a shout out to the editing in Marty Supreme, which is exceptional and would be my personal #2 pick, but is going to leave the season empty-handed, sadly.

Who will win: One Battle After Another

But look out for: Sinners

Who I'd vote for: One Battle After Another

If I could add one more: Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

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#movies #Oscar picks #Oscars 2026 #Film Editing #F1 #Marty Supreme #One Battle After Another #Sentimental Value #Sinners

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