In previous seasons, I hadn't gone back to compare mid-season projections to final standings, so I thought that would be interesting this year. Who improved the most and who dropped the worst?
Best overall improvement:
In the East, it was the Penguins - who were cruising along at a projected 89 point / 9th place finish. They finished out the season with 104 points and 2nd overall in the East, giving them 2nd place in the Metropolitan division.
In the West, it was the Ducks - they were projecting out at just 84 points and an 11th place finish; they improved the most in the second half of the season to leap to 4th in the west and 1st in the Pacific with 103 points.
In the East, it would have to be New Jersey, who barely edges out Boston for this dubious honor, but let's just call it a tie. The Devils were clinging on to an 8th seed but fell to 12th by the time the season was done. Boston battled it out with Detroit and Philadelphia down to the wire, but in the end, they were done in by tiebreakers. More on that in a moment.
In the West, it was Arizona, who fell out of playoff positioning and never quite got it back, dropping to 10th overall in the conference after originally projecting at 7th place.
How heartbreaking is losing out on the playoffs for Boston this season?
Well, it's not quite as painful for the Bruins as it would've been for the Red Wings - because Detroit would've ended their playoff streak at 24 consecutive seasons. Instead, the Red Wings are heading to the playoffs for the 25th consecutive season, and Boston is left wondering what might have been.
Unfortunately for the Bruins, they had a rough final dozen games of the season, and it made them fall far enough in the standings that the final decision was left up to tiebreakers.
Here's the kicker, Bruins fans: Boston actually owned 2 of the 3 tiebreakers over Detroit. Unfortunately for them, however, they didn't own the most important one: ROW, which is the first tiebreaker.
As you can see from the standings chart, Detroit's ROW is just one more than Boston's. If the Bruins had won just one more game in regulation/overtime, even if their ROW points still matched Detroit's, it would be Boston, not the Red Wings, occupying 3rd overall in the Atlantic. Here’s why:
1st tiebreaker (words from NHL.com): "The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout. This figure is reflected in the ROW column."
As you can see in the above screenshot, Detroit’s ROW was 39 to Boston’s 38. Therefore, additional tiebreakers were not required. But if they were...
2nd tiebreaker: The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included.
Red Wings had 11 goals to Boston's 16 in the four games between these two clubs. This tiebreaker would have gone to Boston.
3rd tiebreaker: The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.
Boston was +10 while Detroit was -13. This tiebreaker would have also gone to Boston.
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