Hyperbolog

a film diary

[hyperbolog]

2019 Oscar Predictions Pt. 3: Screenplays, Supporting Actress & Actor, Best Actress & Actor, Director and Picture

Best Original Screenplay

This is a difficult category to predict, as four of the five films are contenders in several key categories and three of those films are potential Best Picture winners. Green Book has won several key precursor awards, but it also is the recipient of extreme award-season backlash. Another knock against Green Book is that the script is as generic as a script can be, often telegraphing it’s major plot points and character arcs pages before they occur. The Favourite is a very funny and acerbic script, however the strangeness of the film may alienate the type of voters that gravitate towards backwards Boomer nostalgia like Green Book. My personal favourite script of the year is Schrader’s First Reformed, and I would love to see it rewarded, but that would be a true upset in a category that rarely provides surprises. The WGA provided no clues this year, as The Favourite did not meet their draconian nomination requirements and the winner, Eighth Grade, was not nominated for an Oscar. I’m taking The Favourite, but would not be shocked if Green Book ended up winning.

Will Win: The Favourite Should Win: First Reformed Could Win: Green Book Should Have Been Nominated: Sorry To Bother You

Adapted Screenplay

The Adapted Screenplay category can sometimes be a real shitshow. This year has avoided awarding middling fare by nominating five legitimately good to great films. This means there will be no Argo or Imitation Game travesties. BlacKkKlansman is the Academy’s best chance to award Spike Lee directly, as the film is unlikely to upset Roma for Best Director or Picture. The Academy loves it when the Coens go country, with previous nods for their adaptations of No Country and True Grit and while Buster Scruggs features many of the Brothers virtuoso monologues, it’s hard to imagine it being a serious contender. A Star is Born is the weakest of the bunch, and probably should have been overlooked in favour of Granik’s Leave No Trace. Can You Ever Forgive Me? is a potential spoiler due to its WGA win, however that is a notoriously fickle guild. Lee’s other competition is Jenkin’s Beale Street which, as good as it is, features some real clumsy translations of Baldwin’s prose. I’m hoping Lee is finally awarded here after three decades of iconoclastic, incendiary and often brilliant filmmaking.

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman Should Win: BlacKkKlansman Could Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me? Should Have Been Nominated: Leave No Trace

Best Supporting Actor

This has been in Ali’s award to win all award season. In a fraught campaign for Green Book, Ali has been able to absorb and deflect all criticism. I’m not sure that even detractors of the film will vote against him, though he won this award just two years prior. Some are predicting that Sam Elliott will join the ranks of Palance and Coburn, who were both industry stalwarts that won Supporting Actor Oscars in their 70s. However, those septuagenarians faced a crowded field with no clear frontrunners. If the night goes Green Book’s way, this could be the second time in three years that Ali wins Best Supporting Actor for a film that wins Best Picture, which is a truly meaningless coincidence.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book Should Win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Could Win: Sam Elliott, A Star is Born Should Have Been Nominated: Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

Both supporting categories seem locked up, with King being the runaway favourite. The only time she lost was at the SAGs to Emily Blunt. However that is essentially meaningless as King wasn’t even nominated for a SAG and Blunt is not nominated for an Oscar. If long-time also-ran Amy Adams couldn’t pull out a win at SAGs with King absent, it’s unlikely that she will pull off an upset at the Oscars. Rachel Weisz should technically be up for Best Actress, swapping places with Colman in this category. Weisz’s performance in The Favourite is electric, but King is the beating heart of Jenkin’s Beale Street.

Will Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Should Win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite Could Win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite Should Have Been Nominated: Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

Best Actor

What is happening? How is it possible that Malek’s karaoke performance is the frontrunner for Best Actor? Wait, that’s not fair. Karaoke singers actually perform the songs themselves. Malik is essentially doing the equivalent of a Lifetime Movie performance in the longest episode of Celebrity Lip Sync Battle. The only upside to Malek‘s Mercury winning Best Actor, is that it will end all arguments regarding “Worst Performance to Ever Win an Oscar.” You’re off the hook John Wayne and Sandra Bullock. Best Actor has gotten into a real rut this decade, only awarding two performances that were not based on real life historical figures. No other decade awarded less than five performances of original characters. It has become a category for the year’s Best Imitation, which would still place Malek far behind Bale’s Dick Cheney and Dafoe’s Van Gogh. As Ethan Hawke was inexplicably left off the ballot, my vote would be for Bradley Cooper, who gives a surprisingly sensitive and nuanced performance in A Star is Born. But honestly, I’d take Viggo’s caricature from Green Book over Malik.

Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Should Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born Could Win: Christian Bale, Vice Should Have Been Nominated: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Best Actress

What was once the lone exciting race in the performance categories has now become a foregone conclusion, as Glenn Close is running away with Best Actress. Close, as always, gives a great performance, but make no mistake, this is a legacy win. The Wife is not a good film, in fact it is a patently ridiculous trifle. This year’s Oscar run-up closely resembles 2014, when Julianne Moore won for the mediocre Still Alice. The only major difference is that Moore had no real competition, while Close should be pacing fifth of five. Olivia Colman’s Queen Anne is a wonderful performance which manages to be both extremely funny and moving, as she infuses empathy into a character that could have easily been a punchline. Lady Gaga is terrific in A Star is Born as is McCarthy and Aparicio in their respective roles. However, it is Close’s year, as the Academy looks to honour a beloved seven-time nominee. When Close wins, it means that Amy Adams will now have more Oscar nominations without a win than any other living actor, placing her just two behind Peter O’Toole for most all time.

Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife Should Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite Could Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite Should Have Been Nominated: Toni Colette, Hereditary & Joanna Klug, Cold War

Best Director

The days of Director and Picture lining up are becoming few and far between. It could be that voters are seeing these categories as intrinsically separate, with Director representing the vision and creativity of a film, while Picture being an award for Best Production, or it could be simply the result of the preferential ballot. There have been four splits this decade between Director and Picture, which is one off the mark for the most in a 10 year span with two ceremonies left to go. This year has a real “2015” vibe to it. That year, Inarritu’s The Revenant performed as the perfunctory favourite for Picture based on the strength of various Guild, Critics and Golden Globe wins, only to lose the Oscar to Spotlight. Inarritu’s Birdman had just won the year before, which may have played into that loss, but the feeling is that voters admired The Revenant, but didn’t particularly like it. Roma has that same admiration and that same cold response. Do audiences love Roma? Everybody seems to agree that the film is a gorgeous love-letter from Cuaron, and a personal achievement. However, much like The Revenant’s gorgeous natural light and impressive camerawork, Roma’s pristine artifice may distance viewers from actually engaging emotionally with the film. I expect voters to award Cuaron’s craft, but not his product. There have been some rumblings of a Spike Lee upset, which seems outrageous, but would be very welcome. Cuaron is already expected to take home Cinematography and Foreign Language, so it is possible that voters could choose to honour Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, which definitely carries an emotional immediacy that is lacking from Roma.

P.S How much better would this year’s Oscars be with only five Best Picture nominees that aligned with the films up for Best Director. Think about a year where the five films vying for Best Picture are Roma, BlacKkKlansman, Cold War, Vice and The Favourite. Nary a Green Book or Rhapsody in sight. We can dream, can’t we.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma Should Win: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Could Win: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Should Have Been Nominated: Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Best Picture

The expansion of Best Picture from 5 to a potential of 10, has definitely had an impact on the Oscars. This decade, Best Pictures have averaged a total of 3.5 total Oscar wins. That’s two less that last decade’s 5.5 average and far less than the 90s, where Best Pictures averaged 6.1 total Academy Awards. The last time a decade averaged so few total awards per Best Picture was the 1930s, which also nominated as many as 10 films a year. In the 2000s, the film to win Best Picture was the evening’s most awarded film nine times. That’s only happened four out of the last eight years. In fact, in two of those years, the film to win Best Picture tied with another film for most total Oscars. That means that the year’s Best Picture has been the lone most celebrated film only twice this decade. Whether this is a result of the expanded lineup, or a side-effect of our shifting cultural landscape, where streaming platforms, VOD and the general surfeit of films have fragmented consensus, the films that win Best Picture are changing. There’s nothing to suggest that trend will abate this year. All eight films nominated for Best Picture are predicted to win at least one Oscar. Roma is the favourite to take home top honours but is projected for just four total wins. However, it’s Best Picture frontrunner status is debatable. Many see Green Book as this year’s Spotlight, though not in terms of quality. It’s the kind of low stakes, ahistorical Boomer garbage that does very well at the Oscars. Black Panther is another potential spoiler, having both the cultural and box-office capital rarely seen in this category. Also, Panther won the SAG, which is a strong Guild win. BlacKkKlansman appears to be this year’s Get Out, as it’s the film that best captures the time in which we live and is certainly too good to win Best Picture. Further hampering BlacKkKlansman, is that it did not win a single Guild. Only Out of Africa has won Best Picture with no Guild support. The Favourite appears to be on no-one’s top pick, but preferential balloting may reward a film so generally well regarded. A Star is Born could also find itself on the top half of a lot of ballots. It seems that the only film that is totally out of the running is Vice. Then there’s Bohemian Rhapsody, which would surely be the worst film to ever win Best Picture. Not only is it essentially directorless, it’s a nearly unwatchable mess, operating more as a collection of montages than a proper film. It’s an abysmal, objectively terrible film that bares closer resemblance to a Hallmark Channel “Movie-of-the-Week” than an Oscar winner. How did this happen? I know that we all like Queen, but we still have eyes and ears, right? I’m taking Green Book, as I do not think that voters are ready to give top honours to a Netflix film, especially producers and directors who may view giving Best Picture to a streaming service as a case of “Too-Much Too-Soon.” Green Book has the air of competent mediocrity which so often goes hand-in-hand with Best Picture winners. That Moonlight win is looking to be more and more of an anomaly.

Will Win: Green Book Should Win: BlacKkKlansman Could Win: Roma Should Have Been Nominated: First Reformed

[hyperbolog]

2019 Oscar Predictions Pt. 2: Visual Effects, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Cinematography, Editing, Foreign Language and Short Films

Visual Effects

As surprising as this sounds, a Superhero film has not won in this category since 2004s Spider-Man 2. In fact, only two Superhero films have ever won Best Visual Effects, the other being Superman in 1978. Infinity War marks the eighth nominated film in the Marvel universe since Phase One kicked off in 2008. Yet none of those culturally ubiquitous blockbusters ever won in a category perfectly suited to reward their product. In years past, Marvel’s biggest hurdle has been competing with prestige films nominated across multiple categories, such as Inception, Benjamin Button, Blade Runner 2049 and Gravity. This year, no such film really exists, unless you count First Man. In fact, the prestige film that Infinity War should be competing against is Marvel’s own Black Panther, which was left off the ballot. How Panther managed to be overlooked in favour of Christopher Robin is baffling. This should be the Academy’s chance to honour the Avenger’s series which, for better and worse (mostly worse), has impacted modern film more than any other franchise currently operating. Infinity War, despite its numerous flaws, is the culmination of 18 films over 20 years, which is a some sort of accomplishment, I guess. If there is a spoiler this year, it should be First Man. It’s possible that voters will have superhero fatigue, as this year they look to potentially award Panther in multiple categories, as well as Spiderman for Animated film. If there is superhero malaise, First Man could swoop in as a legitimate threat to Marvel and Disney’s otherwise successful evening.

Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War Should Win: First Man Could Win: First Man Should Have Been Nominated: Black Panther

Animated Feature

This category does not produce upsets. The closest thing to a shocker was in 2012 when Brave beat Wreck-It Ralph. Look for Spiderman to continue its award season dominance, as it has won every single precursor award for this category. In a year with very few clear frontrunners, the Spiderverse is a safe bet.

Will Win: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse Should Win: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse Could Win: Incredibles 2 Should Have Been Nominated: Early Man

Documentary Feature

Much like Original Score, this category received a major shakeup when the presumptive winner failed to garner a nomination. With Fred Rogers out of the picture, things get slightly more complicated. This year, there are two films with really strong chances. Free Solo is an impressive visual accomplishment, bolstered by a captivating subject and palm-sweating scenes of real life danger. Free Solo also won at the BAFTAs, which gives it some momentum. RBG is a rote, by-the-numbers documentary that, though not terrible, is ultimately forgettable. What RBG does have is timeliness, as Ruth Bader Ginsberg has become more and more of an heroic figure every day. Coupled with her recent health scares, there may enough good will to propel the film towards an Oscar victory.

Will Win: Free Solo Should Win: Hale County This Morning, This Evening Could Win: RBG Should Have Been Nominated: Won’t You Be My Neighbour

Best Editing

The days of Editing being a strong predicator of Best Picture have all but faded away. From 2000-09, six winners for Editing went on to win Best Picture and every winner was at least nominated. This decade, only one film, Argo, has managed to win both. What makes this year stranger is that multiple Best Picture contenders are not even nominated, including Black Panther, A Star is Born and, most surprisingly, Roma. Since 1980, Ordinary People and Birdman are the only two films to win Best Picture and not be nominated for Editing. This bodes well for Green Book, The Favourite and Rhapsody, who can add this nomination to their Oscar checklist alongside their respective Golden Globe and Guild wins. It is less substantial for BlacKkKlansman and Vice, who have not had strong showings in the Guilds leading up to the Oscars. Bohemian’s nomination and Eddie win make more sense when you consider that John Ottoman essentially saved this once doomed project in the editing room. Many voters may see Ottoman as the true director of the film, and wish to reward him for turning a potential disaster into a near-billion dollar box-office phenomenon. I would be more compassionate towards that argument if the resulting film was remotely watchable. The Favourite won the Comedy equivalent at the Eddies, so it is a strong contender as well. Vice and BlacKkKlansman are both far better films than Green Book or Rhapsody, with much stronger editing. I’m betting on Vice as it won the BAFTA equivalent and I cannot stomach a world where Bohemian Rhapsody wins multiple Academy Awards. If Green Book wins Editing, get prepared for the film to take home Picture and Original Screenplay.

Will Win: Vice Should Win: BlacKkKlansman Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody Should Have Been Nominated: Roma

Foreign Language

This year’s group of nominees is unprecedented, as three of the films, Roma, Cold War and Never Look Away are all nominated in other top-tier categories. Never Look Away’s nomination for Cinematography is probably the most surprising, while Roma and Cold War had been receiving universal praise and recognition all award season. Roma is the favourite and will most likely win, but I have a suspicion that voters will choose it as Best Picture and opt to award a different film in this category. If that happens, I expect to see Cold War as a spoiler, especially as Pawlikowski’s film is up against Cuaron in three Categories, all of which are predicted to go Roma’s way.

Will Win: Roma Should Win: Cold War Could Win: Cold War Should Have Been Nominated: Burning

Cinematography

The American Society of Cinematographers awarded Lukasz Zal work for Cold War, but they have only predicted 9 of the last 18 winners. Cuaron’s Roma has won just about every other equivalent award for cinematography and has been the frontrunner all award season. It is possible that voters will see honouring Cuaron for director and cinematography for Roma as redundant, but it seems unlikely.

Will Win: Roma Should Win: Cold War Could Win: Cold War Should Have Been Nominated: If Beale Street Could Talk

Documentary Short

This is a category that I have not predicted correctly in four years. There’s no reason to believe that will change. A Night at the Garden is my favourite of the nominees, which means it has no shot of winning. Black Sheep, a film about a young black man befriending his racist tormentors, has a lot of buzz, but Docs that rely heavily on re-enactments generally do not fare well. End Game is, essentially, Extremis, a Short Doc that Netflix submitted in 2016 also documenting end-of-life hospice care. LIFEBOAT is about the North African migrant crisis in the Mediterranean. It’s a subject that has been nominated before, in both the feature and short documentary categories, yet has never won. Then there is Period End of Sentence, which Netflix has just picked up for distribution. Period details a group of Feminist women from Hapur, India who operate and sell biodegradable sanitary pads to other women and low cost. Sounds like a winner to me.

Will Win: Period. End of Sentence Should Win: A Night at the Garden Could Win: Black Sheep Should Have Been Nominated: My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes

Live Action Short

Jesus, what a brutal group of films. Marguerite is the most hopeful of this year’s nominee’s, and it concerns an dying woman’s sexual re-awakening as a result of her relationship with her nurse. Mother is a single-take, genre exercise that’s as close to a horror short as you’re ever going to get in this category and, like three of the films, directly involves child endangerment. Skin is about a young boy raised by violent neo-Nazis, one of whom gets a particularly problematic comeuppance. This year’s Detainment is possibly the worst film I’ve ever seen nominated in this category. An exploitative, shameless depiction of the brutal murder of James Bulger at the hands of two 10 year-olds, the film has nothing interesting to say about the killers or the victims. With the mother of James vocally objecting to the film and a petition of over 250,000 signatures requesting it withdrawn from competition, I think it’s safe to cross it off the list of potential winners. Fauve also involves childhood death, but it manages to honestly engage with the trauma and impact of a senseless tragedy, rather than revel in sordid details. I’ve wildly misread this category for the last three years, but I’m going with Marguerite, as it is the film most likely to appeal to the widest range of voters.

Will Win: Marguerite Should Win: Fauve Could Win: Skin Should Have Been Nominated: Caroline

Animated Short

I’m on the fence with this category. The frontrunner has been Bao for most of the year, but Weekends is a far better short. Like Animated Feature, there are rarely upsets in this category as evidenced by 2017’s Dear Basketball, which was able to maintain its frontrunner status despite being, by far, the worst nominee. Last year I bet against the favourite and lost. I’m reluctant to do that again.

Will Win: Bao Could Win: Weekends Should Win: Weekends Should Have Been Nominated: Bilby

[hyperbolog]

2019 Oscar Predictions Pt. 1: Sound Editing, Mixing, Score, Song, Costume, Make-up/Hairstyling & Production Design

Sound Editing

Sound Editing is a category that traditionally awards Oscars to Action and War films. This decade the only outliers have been Arrival and Hugo. There are no clear front runners in most of this year’s technical categories, especially Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. I think First Man should and can win, however it’s lack of nominations in prestige categories, such as Adapted Screenplay, Picture and Supporting Actress may indicate that there is a tepid support of the film as a whole. If that’s true, expect this award to go to Bohemian Rhapsody, which continued to build upon its inexplicable award season momentum with a surprising Oscar nod for Editing and a big win at the Eddies, the latter giving it the edge in this category. There is also a lot of support for A Quiet Place, which could pull an Arrival-esque upset.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody Should Win: First Man Could Win: A Quiet Place Should Have Been Nominated: A Star is Born

Sound Mixing

Unlike Sound Editing, Musicals tend to win Sound Mixing Oscars. While neither Rhapsody or A Star is Born are conventional musicals, music is the key element of both films and essential to their success. Both are box office juggernauts with nominations for Picture, but one film is trending up, and that’s Rhapsody. I’ve never seen a film bottom out during an award season quite like A Star is Born has in 2019. Just a few months ago it was a favourite to take home multiple awards, including Best Picture. Now the only sure win is for Best Song. Hurting Star’s chances further is that the film has not been nominated for Editing or Director. While Rhapsody never stood a chance for director thanks to Singer being a garbage-fire, it stole a coveted Editing nom from Cooper’s film. Rhapsody also took Best Sound at the BAFTAs, which have accurately predicted all but one of the winners this decade. I do think a lot of voters may feel that Cooper was slighted for director and want to award his film in some way. If so, this is the best chance to do that, as the vocals in A Star is Born are entirely done live by the performers, unlike Rhapsody. Also, don’t count out Panther, which may surprise everyone and take every technical award in which it’s nominated. That SAG award was a very loud win.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody Should Win: A Star is Born Could Win: A Star is Born Should Have Been Nominated: A Quiet Place

Best Score

This category shifted from stable to volatile once the nominations were announced and the presumptive frontrunner, First Man, was left of the ballot. Beale Street has the most effective and thematically resonant score, which weaves its way throughout most of the film’s runtime. Britell’s music is gorgeous, evocative and, most importantly, a central component of the film. If there’s any real spoiler in this category, it could be Blanchard for BlacKkKlansman. He’s an industry vet, with 5 Grammy wins who has scored every Spike Lee film since 1991. This is his first nomination.

Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk Could Win: BlacKkKlansman Should Have Been Nominated: Colin Stetson, Hereditary

Best Song

Shallow has won every single precursor award and multiple Grammys. Don’t get clever and try to outthink the room. This is a done deal.

Will Win: Shallow, A Star is Born Should Win: Shallow, A Star is Born Could Win: All the Stars, Black Panther (but not really) Should Have Been Nominated: Thom Yorke “Suspirium”

Production Design

This is a two film race between Black Panther and The Favourite. Hannah Beachler has already made Oscar history by being the first black nominee in this category and Panther’s Wakanda is a landmark piece of cinematic world building. The Favourite is a beautiful film, but the cinematography far outpaces the Set Design in terms of originality and personality. This category has historically honoured period pieces from eras both real and imagined. Since 2000, there has been only one contemporaneous winner (La La Land) and two wins for films set in the future (Fury Road and Avatar). Every other of the 15 winners have been films predominately set in the past. I expect The Favourite to continue that tradition.

Will Win: The Favourite Should Win: Black Panther Could Win: Black Panther Should Have Been Nominated: Cold War

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

This category has always been a fickle mess and this year is no different. The Favourite was not included on the Short List, let alone nominated and presumptive frontrunner Black Panther was also snubbed. Mary Queen of Scots is this year’s mandatory period piece, while Border is the third film from Sweden to be nominated in the last four years, whatever that means. Both films appear to be pacing far behind Vice, which hopes to join The Iron Lady, Dallas Buyer’s Club and Darkest Hour by scoring a win for both Makeup and a lead performance. Much like those films, Vice’s win can be seen as another way for Academy voters to honour a critically praised performance from an industry vet twice in one night.

Will Win: Vice Should Win: Vice Could Win: Border Should Have Been Nominated: The Favourite & Black Panther

Best Costume

In the last decade The Artist is the only film that has won both Best Costume and Picture, so this is not a strong predictive category. Sandy Powell has been nominated 6 times in the last 9 years, including 2018’s The Favourite and Mary Poppins Returns. The last time she was double nominated was in 2015 for Carol and Cinderella. That year she lost to Fury Road. 2018 feels eerily similar. The Favourite takes Carol’s place, as both are critical darlings with multiple above the line nominations, while Poppins, like Cinderella, is a Disney vault staple just happy to be invited. Black Panther, much like Fury Road, is a critical Sci-fi, action hit that captured the pop culture zeitgeist and is nominated for Best Picture. Ruth Carter’s costumes in Black Panther have been a focal point since its release back in February and, as evidenced by 7 Nominations and SAG win, the film has not lost any momentum going into the Oscars.

Will Win: Black Panther Should Win: Black Panther Could Win: The Favourite Should Have Been Nominated: Crazy Rich Asians

[hyperbolog]

2018 Oscar Predictions Pt. 3

Adapted Screenplay:

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name Could Win: Mudbound Should Win: Call Me By Your Name Should Have Been Nominated: I, Tonya

With the weakest Adapted Screenplay field in recent memory, James Ivory’s brilliant adaptation of Call My By Your Name is one of the evening’s few sure things. This is Ivory’s fourth career nomination, with the previous three all in the Directing category, and his script is the only adaptation also nominated for Best Picture. Armed with a monologue for the ages delivered by a criminally overlooked Michael Stuhlberg, Ivory’s script will continue it’s award season winning streak come Oscar night, in the process joining fellow octogenarian Agnes Varda as the oldest recipient of a competitive Academy Award.

Original Screenplay: Will Win: Get Out Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Should Win: Get Out Should Have Been Nominated: Phantom Thread This is the toughest of the major races, with all but one of the nominees also a Best Picture candidate written by the director. Usually this category is a chance for the academy to award an film that will not win Picture or Director, however this year that applies to Get Out, Lady Bird and Three Billboards. Get Out won the WGA, which is a strong indicator, far more so that the Globes, which went to Three Billboards. Gerwig’s terrific, insightful script seems to be getting squeezed out by the momentum of aforementioned pair, and The Shape of Water has some controversy surrounding plagiarism and was never really in the conversation. McDonagh’s Billboards has a real strong shot here, as he is not nominated for director and his film has received 7 total nominations, so this is the only chance to reward him personally. Peele’s Get Out outclasses Billboards in every aspect, and hopefully the recent shake up of Academy members in the recent years, including an emphasis on youth and diversity, propels his film to victory McDonagh’s risible, ill-formed, deliberate provocation.

Best Supporting Actor Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Could Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Should Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name Three Billboards is a film so sloppy and poorly executed that the director/writer had to make a public statement clarifying his position on Rockwell’s character. If you have to publicly state that your film isn’t aligning itself with it’s central racist, you haven’t done a good job as a director. Rockwell is pretty much incapable of giving a bad performance, it’s just a shame that he will win for this film, as his role is surely more deserving of the Oscar for Least Earned Redemptive Arch in a Major Motion Picture. Dafoe is marvellous playing against type in The Florida Project, a film that should have earned multiple nominations for it’s cast and crew. Despite the backlash against Billboards, Rockwell has won every award, including Globes, SAG and BAFTA, and will definitely get the win come Oscar night. Unless your conscious demands that vote differently, have him on your ballot.

Best Supporting Actress Will Win: Alison Janney, I, Tonya Could Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Should Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Should Have Been Nominated: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick It appeared that Metcalf had this category locked up, but Janney took the Golden Globe and hasn’t stopped winning since. They’re both great performances, but Metcalf’s Lady Bird matriarch is an All-Time role for one of the industries most beloved, yet unknown, quantities. Janney steals every scene she in, and her presence casts a shadow over I, Tonya, a common trait of most performances that win Supporting Oscars. Of all the major categories, this is the one that is most primed for a Tomei level upset, as there has been a lot of recent love for Manville among the voters. Could Janney and Metcalf split their respective votes allowing Manville to swoop in? Probably not.

Best Actor Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Could Win: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread or Timothee Chalamet Should Have Been Nominated: Adam Sandler, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) It’s a shame that the recent improvements the Academy has made in membership has not impacted this race at all. Gary Oldman’s Churchill is the kind of stuffy, over-reaching schmaltz that has littered the Best Actor landscape for decades. It is not indicative of the quality of the other nominees work, nor the diverse crop of films that represent the best of 2017. While Day-Lewis is phenomenal in what, reportedly, is his final role, the real standout performance belongs to newcomer Timothee Chalamet. As natural and moving as Oldman is artificial and stale, Chalamet’s portrayal of Elio calls to mind film’s great performances, that of Brando, Dean and De Niro, so strong is his physicality and choices as an actor. If ever I was pining for an Adrian Brody-esque upset, it would be this year. However, this is not to be. Oldman has swept every major award leading up to the Oscars, and there is no indication that anyone else is gaining momentum. Of all the presumptive winners in major categories, his victory is the most assured.

Best Actress Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Could Win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Should Have Been Nominated: Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread Historically, a film winning both Best Actress and Best Picture is a very rare occurrence. It’s only happened 12 times in 90 years, while Actor and Picture have coincided 26 times. This year, four of the five nominated performances are from films also represented in the Best Picture category, which is an unprecedented ratio, even in era of the expanded lineup. This means there is a solid chance that Actress and Picture could line up, but that would require either Three Billboards scoring big at the end of the night, or Sally Hawkins stealing away McDormand’s presumed victory. I’m not sure that the Three Billboards backlash has stolen away any of McDormand’s heat coming into the ceremony, so it’s safe bet to stick with her, as she has won every major precursor award. Ronan and Robbie are sure to be nominated again and, in Ronan’s case, it’s only a matter of time before she is anointed with her very own Oscar. Hawkins performance is the exact opposite of McDormand’s acerbic, monologuing, shit-kicker, yet it is infinitely more powerful, as she manages to supply the emotional anchor for Del Toro’s film while not uttering a single line of dialogue.

Best Director Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water Could Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread Should Have Been Nominated: Sean Baker, The Florida Project McDonagh’s exclusion from this category really shakes up the entire proceedings, as not getting a director nomination is a huge knock against your film winning Best Picture. Del Toro has pretty much swept the Pre-Oscar awards, including the DGA, which has predicted all but five Best Director winners of the past two decades. The only real competition he has is Jordan Peele, who won Best First Time Feature at the DGA’s, but it seems like he’ll take Best Original Screenplay as a consolation prize. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Anderson is rewarded for Phantom Thread, as it’s such a idiosyncratic and strange film, but his inclusion here as a welcome surprise, as he continues to craft the most impressive catalogue in modern American Cinema.

Best Picture Will Win: The Shape of Water Could Win: Get Out or Three Billboards Should Win: Get Out Should Have Been Nominated: The Florida Project It’s taken a few years, but the expansion of the Picture lineup is starting to pay dividends, as it is finally resulting in closer races and genuine upsets. With the recent influx of new members to the Academy, it has become increasingly difficult to rely on past precedents when making predictions, especially as the new membership was designed to be far more inclusive. The last two years have seen true upsets, with Spotlight ousting The Revenant and Moonlight absolutely stunning La La Land. This is a huge step forward for Best Picture, as both of those films are actually very good, especially Moonlight, which ranks high on the list of best films to ever to win this award. Making matters more confusing, is that the ballot operates under a ‘instant runoff’ system, designed so that the winning film is one with the widest consensus, as the voters rank the nominated films from most preferred to least preferred. This preferential system does not benefit divisive films, such as Three Billboards, which may land on top of several ballots, but will also, certainly, rank much lower on many others. This balloting system heavily favours The Shape of Water as, while I do not know anyone who is raving about the film, it does not have the same vocal detractors as Billboards. What separates 2017s lineup from the past few years is that a third contender is in the mix, as Get Out is picking up steam. Peele’s brilliant horror-satire is the type of film primed to take advantage of the preferential ballot system, as I can see it being in the top three on a lot of voters rankings. This is a very strong year in terms of good to great films being nominated, with nary a Blind Side or The Help in sight. Still, Three Billboards would be a very poor and disappointing choice. If it wins it, the backlash towards the already polarizing, thoughtlessly incendiary film will rise to that of Crash-level resentment in the years to come.

[hyperbolog]

2018 Oscar Predictions Pt. 2: Part Two: Foreign, Animated, Documentary and Shorts

Documentary Feature:This is a no-brainer. Coco was the presumptive winner prior to the nominations, and that is only bolstered by this year’s especially weak field. Just like Inside-Out and Zootopia before it, Coco is an sure thing.Animated Film: Will Win: Coco Could Win: Nothing…no other film has a chance. Should Win: Coco

Will Win: Faces, Places Could Win: Last Men in Aleppo Should Win: Faces, Places Should Have Been Nominated: Jane

Best Documentary Feature has always been a confounding and fickle category. Often, the most critically praised documentaries are not even nominated, let alone victorious. Roger & Me, Hearts of Darkness, Hoop Dreams and The Thin Blue Line all failed to receive nominations in their respective years, despite universal praise and surprising mainstream success. This year you can add Jane to the list of shocking Documentary snubs, as the Academy failed once again to nominate the outright best Doc of the year. Jane’s loss is Agnes Varda’s gain, as Faces, Places is now the frontrunner. Not only is it far and away the best of the remaining nominated documentaries, it is also crafted by a beloved cinema icon. With a career in cinema now spanning 60 years, Varda should be awarded her first competitive Oscar, having already become the first female director to have won an Honorary Academy Award in 2017 for her contributions to cinema. When she does so, at the age of 89, she will also be the oldest competitive winner in Oscar history. Expect a rousing, and well deserved ovation.

Foreign Language: Will Win: A Fantastic Woman Could Win: The Square Should Win: Loveless or The Square

This is difficult year to predict this category. The last six winners have been strong favourites, sweeping up major awards and riding a wave of critical momentum coming into the ceremony. This year it’s a race between three films, the Palme D’Or winning The Square, Zvyagintsev’s grim, near masterpiece Loveless and Sebastien Lelio’s trans-centric character study A Fantastic Woman. In the Arthouse race, I’m inclined to favour The Square over Loveless, as Zvyagintsev’s Russian morality tale is so depressing and unsentimental that it may not resonant with most voters. However, while The Square is a brilliant satire, comedy is never a safe Oscar bet, especially in this category, with 2013’s The Great Beauty the most lighthearted film to win in recent memory. A Fantastic Woman has a lot going for it, with a great central performance from Daniela Vega, guided by Leilo’s deft, subtle and empathetic approach to the subject matter. It’s certainly far more hopeful than Loveless and far less alienating than The Square, which could go a long way with the voters. There’s a lot of recent noise regarding The Insult winning, which makes sense as that film’s neutral stance towards a complicated human rights issue is typical of the middlebrow, crowd-pleasers which tend to prevail in this category.

Documentary Short: Will Win: Eddie+Edith Could Win: Heroin(e) Should Win: Eddie+Edith

How many of these films have the Academy members actually seen? If we assume that the most viewed will receive the most votes, than Heroin(e) should win, as it has been available on Netflix for some time. Eddie+Edith, which tells the story of North Americas oldest interracial newlyweds who are subsequently separated as a result of elder abuse, ticks off a lot of boxes on the Oscar Checklist. It helps that it is also a very moving and well-made film. Right now I’m oscilating between E&E and Heroin(e), but truly, any of the nominated shorts could win. Well, other than Knife Skills.

Live Action Short Will Win: Dekalb Elementary Could Win: The Eleven O’Clock Should Win: Dekalb Elementary

There are no real frontrunners in any of the Short-Film categories this year. Dekalb Elementary couldn’t be more topical, as it is based on a true story of an attempted school shooting. It helps that the film is gripping, superbly executed and features the strongest performance in any of the nominated shorts. The Eleven O’Clock has been optioned as a Feature film, but it is, essentially, a Monty Python skit, charming at times, but extremely light in comparison to the other four contenders. The Silent Child ranks just slightly ahead of The Boss Baby for the title of this year’s Worst Nominated Film, which means it has a high likelihood of winning. My Nephew Emmitt details the abduction and murder of Emmitt Till from the perspective of his uncle. It’s the type of heartbreaking based-on-a-true story film that generally wins in this category. But so is Watu Wote. And Dekalb. It’s generally a crap shot, but most prognosticators are falling behind Dekalb, which is gaining major momentum in the wake of Parkland.

Animated Short Will Win: Negative Space Could Win: Dear Basketball or Revolting Rhymes Should Win: Negative Space or Garden Party

Kobe Bryant’s paean to narcissism ‘Dear Basketball’ has gotten the most buzz, but the actual short is terrible, and feels like a shoe commercial more than it does a film. Garden Party features stunning photorealism, but the film is super dark, possibly too dark for voters taste. Negative Space is my favourite of the nominees and it is the most awarded of all the shorts, having received 52 awards across 137 festivals. My fear is that the DIY aesthetic will not be embraced by a group that tends to go Pixar every year. However, this year’s Pixar entry, Lou, is nothing special and is further undermined by it adopting a very cloy approach to bullying. Revolting Rhymes is the longest of the nominees, as it is essentially a BBC television episode. The length distinguishes it from the competition, but I’m not sure if that will help or hurt its chances. I’m sticking with Negative Space, as I’ve seen no evidence of a clear frontrunner and it’s my favourite short across all three categories.

[hyperbolog]

2018 Oscar Predictions Part One: Technical Awards

Editing Will Win: Dunkirk Could Win: Baby Driver Should Win: Baby Driver Should have been Nominated: Get Out

Historically, the Film poised to win Best Editing was also strongly favoured to win Best Picture. This has changed in the last decade, where, from 2010-16, only one film, Argo, won both Picture and Editing. Compared to 2000-09, where six films won both awards, and that’s a pretty significant shift away from Editing being a strong correlative category. War and action films fare very well in this category, especially if the film in question is also up for either Best Director or Picture. It would be surprising if Dunkirk didn’t win, though a Baby Driver victory would not be unprecedented, as Whiplash pulled off a pretty crazy upset over four other Best Picture contenders in 2014. Nominations for Shape and Billboards bode well for both films as they vie for larger awards, as being nominated for Editing is still a major factor when determining which films will win Best Picture.  

Sound Editing Will Win: Dunkirk Could Win: Baby Driver Should Win: Baby Driver Should Have Been Nominated: Mother!

This is Baby Driver’s best chance to steal a win, as the film is essentially an action-musical. There’s been a few surprises in recent years, last year’s Arrival being a notable upset over La La Land, but Arrival was also nominated for several major awards, including Best Picture, while Baby Driver is not. Dunkirk is very much the favourite here.

Sound Mixing Will Win: Dunkirk Could Win: Baby Driver Should Win: Baby Driver Should Have Been Nominated: Mother!

War movies win Sound Mixing. The only time they lose is when a major Musical is also nominated, and Baby Driver does not really qualify as such. Working in Baby Driver’s favour is that the film recently won the Association of Motion Picture Sound’s mixing award. However, just like it’s chances in Film and Sound Editing, Baby Driver’s lack of nominations in other major categories, such as Picture or Director, greatly reduce it’s odds of upsetting Dunkirk.

Visual Effects Will Win: War For the Planet of the Apes Could Win: Blade Runner 2049 Should Win: War For the Planet of the Apes Should Have Been Nominated: The Shape of Water

This is historically a blockbuster action category where, with few exceptions, the winning film combines cutting edge effects with mass critical and commercial appeal. The Planet of the Apes Trilogy received nomination for the previous two instalments, ultimately losing to Hugo and Interstellar. This year, the absence of a true crossover prestige picture has cut out a clearer path for victory, as no other nominee is a Best Picture contender. It also helps that War is the best of the three Apes films, and that the Effects are outstanding, surpassing even the achievements in Dawn, which was made only three years prior. A win for War can also be seen as a win for Andy Serkis, who should be a future recipient of a Lifetime Achievement Award. Blade Runner 2049, though nominated in multiple categories, is prohibitively long, aggressively dull and never really connected with audiences. However, if any film was to pull an Ex-Machina upset, it would be Villeneuve’s futuristic neon-noir.

Makeup & Hairstyling Will Win: Darkest Hour Should Win: Darkest Hour Should Have Been Nominated: The Shape of Water

After last year, this category has righted itself by eliminating the potential for another Suicide Squad level embarrassment. It’s surprising that Victoria & Abdul took a nomination away from The Shape of Water, I,Tonya or Phantom Thread, but it barely matters as this is Darkest Hour’s jowly award to win. Think of it as a way for the Academy to honour Oldman’s performance twice in one night.

Production Design Will Win: The Shape of Water Could Win: Blade Runner 2049 Should Win: The Shape of Water Should Have Been Nominated: Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water has won every precursor award that Production Design can win, and is the clear frontrunner. The film makes remarkable work crafting a Del Toro dreamscape from a relatively small $19 Million budget. As Shape did not receive Visual Effects or Makeup nods, Production Design serves as the De Facto representation of the film’s entire aesthetic beyond the lens and, as such, will certainly be rewarded by the Academy.

Cinematography Will Win: Blade Runner 2049 Could Win: The Shape of Water Should Win: Blade Runner 2049 Should Have Been Nominated: Phantom Thread

Will Roger Deakins finally win? He’s one of the greatest cinematographers working, with 14 nominations and no wins. Some of those losses are real shockers, such as Shawshank being bested by Legends of the Fall, but recent nominations for Unbroken, Skyfall, Prisoners and Sicario never really had a chance against weightier Oscarfare in general and Emmanuel Lubezki specifically. All signs point to this being Deakins’ year, with Blade Runner winning several pre-Oscar awards in this category, including the American Society of Cinematographers and BAFTA. Working against Deakins is that a film without a Best Picture nomination has not won this award in 12 years. There’s been a lot of talk lately among experts that The Shape of Water will end up victorious and if that happens it will all but guarantee Del Toro’s film winning Best Picture.

Costume Design: Will Win: Phantom Thread Could Win: The Shape of Water Should Win: Phantom Thread

This should be on every ballot. If this award was ever in doubt, those anxieties were assuaged when Anderson’s film received five additional nominations, including Director and Picture. The Academy clearly has affection for this film, and this is the best and most appropriate category with which to reward it.

Original Song Will Win: Coco ‘Remember Me’ Could Win: The Greatest Showman ‘This is Me’ Should Win: Coco ‘Remember Me’ Should Have Been Nominated: Anything but that horrible song from Marshall

‘Remember Me’ is not only the best song nominated, it is an essential component of Coco’s emotional narrative. Sufjan’s song is the type of low-key, Alt-Folk that usually appears on his annual 70 minutes B-Side album. Mary J Blige’s Mighty River is ho-hum and ultimately forgettable. The other two songs are dreadful garbage. Oscar hungry Diane Warren’s yearly contribution, ‘Stand Up For Something’ sounds like it was written by a barely sentient Civil Rights Edition of Madlibs. Absolute trash. ‘This is Me’ is the other possible choice, as it won the Golden Globe, The Greatest Showman made a ton of money at the box office, and this category is not immune to rewarding unlistenable treacle.

Score Will Win: The Shape of Water Could Win: Phantom Thread Should Win: Phantom Thread Should Have Been Nominated: The Killing of A Sacred Deer

Desplat is a 8 time nominee, 1 time winner, whose Shape of Water score perfectly accentuates the films dramatic and horror elements, when it isn’t stealing directly from Amelie. Greenwood’s Phantom Thread is, by far, the best score. His is previous collaborations with Anderson were criminally neglected in ceremonies past, and a nomination appears to be a vindication, while a win is highly unlikely.

[hyperbolog]

50 Best Horror Films of the 2000s

1. Martyrs [2008] dir. Pascal Laugier 2. The Descent [2005] dir. Neil Marshall 3. Mulholland Drive [2001] dir. David Lynch 4. Audition [2000] dir. Takashi Miike 5. Inland Empire [2006] dir. David Lynch 6. Battle Royale [2000] dir. Kinji Fukasaku 7. American Psycho [2000] dir. Mary Harron 8. Antichrist [2009] dir. Lars Von Trier 9. REC [2007] Jaume Balaguero, Paco Plaza 10. The Others [2001] dir. Alejandro Amenabar 11. The Loved Ones [2009] Sean Byrne 12. Ju-on: The Grudge [2002] dir. Takashi Shimizu 13. Let the Right One In [2008] dir. Tomas Alfredson 14. Gozu [2003] dir. Takashi Miike 15. Lake Mungo [2008] dir. Joel Anderson 16. Kairo [2001] dir. Kiyoshi Kurosawa 17. May [2002] dir. Lucky McKee 18. Inside [2007] dir. Alexandre Bustillo, Julien Maury 19. Shaun of the Dead [2004] dir. Edgar Wright 20. A Tale of Two Sisters [2003] dir. Kim Jee-woon 21. Noroi: The Curse [2005] dir. Takashi Shimizu 22. Session 9 [2001] dir. Brad Anderson 23. REC 2 [2009] dir. Jaume Balaguero, Paco Plaza 24. Drag Me to Hell [2009] dir. Sam Raimi 25. The Strangers [2008] dir. Bryan Bertino 26. The Host [2006] dir. Bong Joon-ho 27. The Orphanage [2007] dir. Juan Antonio Bayona 28. The House of the Devil [2009] dir. Ti West 29. Shadow of the Vampire [2000] dir. E. Elias Merhige 30. Marebito [2004] dir. Takashi Shimizu 31. Frailty [2001] dir. Bill Paxton 32. Pontypool [2008] dir. Bruce MacDonald 33. Frontiere(s) [2007] dir. Xavier Gens 34. Ginger Snaps [2000] dir. John Fawcett 35. Pan’s Labyrinth [2006] dir. Guillermo Del Toro 36. Calvaire [2004] Fabrice Du Welz 37. 28 Days Later [2002] dir. Danny Boyle 38. Trick R’ Treat [2007] dir. Michael Doherty 39. The Devil’s Backbone [2001] dir. Guillermo Del Toro 40. The Devil’s Rejects [2005] Rob Zombie 41. Dawn of the Dead [2004] dir. Zack Snyder 42. Wolf Creek [2005] dir. Greg McLean 43. Grindhouse [2007] dir. Quentin Tarantino, Robert Rodriguez 44. ils [2006] dir. David Moreau, Xavier Palud 45. The Ring [2002] dir. Gore Verbinski 46. Behind the Mask: The Rise of Leslie Vernon [2006] dir. Scott Glosserman 47. Paranormal Activity [2007] dir. Oren Peli 48. Uzumaki [2000] dir. Higuchinsky 49. Land of the Dead [2005] dir. George A. Romero 50. 1408 [2007] dir. Mikael Hafstrom

[hyperbolog]

25 Best Haunted House Films

1. The Shining [1980] dir. Stanley Kubrick 2. The Haunting [1963] dir. Robert Wise 3. The Innocents [1961] dir. Jack Clayton 4. The Others [2001] dir. Alejandro Amenabar 5. Ju-On: The Grudge [2002] dir. Takashi Shimizu 6. The Conjuring [2001] dir. James Wan 7. House on Haunted Hill [1959] dir. William Castle 8. Ghostwatch [1992] dir. Lesley Manning 9. Poltergeist [1982] dir. Tobe Hooper 10. We Are Still Here [2015] dir. Ted Geoghegan 11. The Babadook [2014] dir. Jennifer Kent 12. The Changeling [1980] dir. Peter Medak 13. The Sentinel [1977] dir. Michael Winner 14: The Orphanage [1996] dir. Juan Antonio Bayona 15. The Amityville Horror [1979] dir. Stuart Rosenberg 16. Paranormal Activity 3 [2001]dir. Henry Joost, Ariel Schulman 17. Session 9 [2001] dir. Brad Anderson 18. Hausu [1977] dir. Nobuhiko Obayashi 19. The Legend of Hell House [1973] dir. John Hough 20. Beetlejuice [1988] dir. Tim Burton 21. 13 Ghosts [1960] dir. William Castle 22. The Innkeepers [2012] dir. Ti West 23. Insidious [2011] dir. James Wan 24. The Uninvited [1944] dir. Lewis Allen 25. The Old Dark House [1932] dir. James Whale

[hyperbolog]

Oscar Winner Predictions Part 3: The Major Categories

Adapted Screenplay:

Will Win: Moonlight Should Win: Moonlight Should have been Nominated: Loving

The decision to reclassify Moonlight as an adaptation guaranteed that Barry Jenkins would walk away with at least one Academy Award. Fences is pretty much the exact same script as the play, with almost no adapting done, reminiscent of Kenneth Branagh’s inclusion in this category for Hamlet, which is one of the worst noms of all time. Arrival is a worthy inclusion, but, like lesser films Lion and Hidden Figures, it’s going to have be satisfied with multiple nominations, as all of them will end the night empty handed.

Original Screenplay: Will Win: Manchester By the Sea Should Win: Manchester By the Sea Should have been Nominated: Toni Erdmann

This is a two-way race between Manchester and La La Land. Manchester is a far, far better screenplay and Lonergan would be a lock in any other year, but Chazelle’s film is a fucking juggernaut, seemingly unstoppable and poised to break Oscar records. The smart money is on Lonergan, as he will not win Director or Picture, and this is usually an award that goes to the writer/director of a film nominated in those categories, but unlikely to win. However, do not be surprised if Chazelle wins, placing La La Land on a course for at least 10 awards. Ugh. That’s ridiculous.

Best Supporting Actress: Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences Should Win: Viola Davis, Fences Should have been Nominated: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures

This is a lock for Davis. No one else stands a chance.

Best Supporting Actor: Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight Should have been nominated: Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Both Supporting categories seem pretty well set. After Ali’s SAG win, it would be hard to imagine anybody else mustering enough momentum to unseat him. There’s always potential for a this category to become a Lifetime Achievement award a la Jack Palance, Alan Arkin, Christopher Plummer, which bodes nicely for Jeff Bridges, but he’s won in the Lead Actor category, so I don’t think that will happen. Dev Patel has been getting a lot of buzz off of his BAFTA win, with those voters overlapping with members of the Academy but that’s unlikely to carry over to the Oscars. Despite extremely limited screen time, Ali casts a shadow over the entirety of Moonlight, the definition of a great supporting performance. It’s his to lose.

Best Actress: Will win: Emma Stone, La La Land Should win: Natalie Portman, Jackie or Isabelle Huppert, Elle Should have been Nominated: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Both lead acting categories are extremely competitive this year, which is a rarity, as recently the winners have been crowned months before the ceremony. Huppert won the Golden Globe, but Stone won the SAG, with puts them ahead of former favourite Portman. Add Portman’s prior win in this category as a reason for voters to prefer casting their ballots for star-on-the-rise Stone and Art-House-Streep Huppert. Personally, I’d love to see Huppert win, as I cannot think of any actor this century to put in consistently outstanding performances in so many challenging roles, with Elle being no exception. While Stone is likable, the role doesn’t really display the emotional depth or range associated with Best Actress. In La La, the music, direction and choreography does most of the heavy lifting dramatically, whereas Huppert “is” Elle. Portman’s incredible portrayal of the grief stricken Jackie O is lightyears ahead of Stone’s doe-eyed ingenue, but this is the year of La La Land, and it would be hard to imagine them not awarding one of the central performances.

Best Actor: Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences Should Win: Denzel Washington, Fences Should have been Nominated: Joel Edgerton, Loving

This year Best Actor is a three way race, with Garfield and Mortenson “just happy to be there.” Gosling hasn’t really won any major pre-awards, as the Best Comedy/Musical Golden Globe isn’t really a indicator, especially with Affleck taking the Drama category which is a historical better signifier. However, I’ve always believed that this is Washington’s award, and his recent SAG win puts him ahead of the pack. Affleck can’t be ruled out, as he has won a lot of the preliminary awards that tend to add up to an Oscar, but he is shrouded, justifiably, in controversy. Washington is Hollywood royalty, and Fences is certainly a more deserving Actor win for him than Training Day, which many feel was a makeup for Malcolm X and The Hurricane and not indicative of his body of work. It’s a close call, but I think Denzel walks away with his 3rd Oscar.

Best Director: Will Win : Damien Chazelle, La La Land Should Win : Barry Jenkins, Moonlight Should have been Nominated : Robert Eggers, The Witch

Oh, how I wish it were not so. This should be Barry Jenkins win. Moonlight is a film which will echo long after La La Land recedes to the Oscar ash heap, alongside The Artist and other inoffensive but forgettable winners, whose sole saving grace is that they are “Not Crash.” Boo-urns.

Best Picture: Will Win: La La Land Should Win: Moonlight Should have been Nominated: The Witch

Yep, it’s a done deal at this point. The only real suspense is whether La La Land sets the record for most wins with 12. For that to happen, it would have to basically sweep, as it is double nominated in Best Song, leaving only one other category for a loss. If you’re shooting the moon on La La Land, that one loss is going to be for Actor, assuming the film gets Original Screenplay and Sound Editing, the only two races that it is really trailing in. It’s the type of pleasant, forgettable, low-stakes, Oscarbait drivel that cleans up at these things. Moonlight will just have to be content with its future place on critic’s lists of “Best Films of the Decade.”

[hyperbolog]

Oscar Winner Predictions Part 2: Documentary, Animated, Foreign and Short Films

Best Documentary: 

Will Win: O.J: Made in America Should Win: O.J: Made in America Should have been Nominated: Kate Plays Christine

If Made in America wins, it would be, by far, the longest film to ever receive an Academy Award. At 7 and a half hours, it’s an exhaustive look at not just O.J Simpson’s life, but the history of the LAPDs turbulent, problematic relationship with Los Angeles’ Black community. It’s a remarkable film, which manages to find new ways to examine one of the most documented events of the last 25 years. But have the voters actually seen the entire film? Do they even consider it a film proper? It’s the presumptive front runner, having won every major award leading up to Oscar night, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Ava Duvernay’s 13th pulled an upset. Many feel she was snubbed in the director category last year for Selma, and her film is extremely timely and relevant. It also doesn’t require setting aside multiple days in order to complete.

Best Foreign Language Film: Will Win: The Salesman Should Win: Toni Erdmann Should have been Nominated: Elle

Toni Erdmann was the frontrunner, deservingly so, winning just about every analogous award leading up to this point. However, it’s a very strange film, one that straddles the line between slapstick and family drama, that may not connect with voters. Asghar Farhadi’s The Salesman, is much more conventional, and, with the political furor over Trumps travel ban, the film takes on a symbolic significance, as it’s the one clear decisive way for voters to support someone directly affected by the fascist policies of the new regime. It’s also helpful that Farhadi is one of the premier dramatists in the world, his films always revealing, powerful and finely plotted, and he brings with him an Oscar pedigree, having won this category in 2011 for A Separation. A Man Called Ove is a possible spoiler, as it’s “Elderly Curmudgeon Learns to Live and Love Again” plot is the type of low stakes, half-charming Oscarbait that cleans up in this category.

Best Animated Film: Will Win: Zootopia Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings or The Red Turtle

Historically, best Animated Feature frontrunners win this award, with the closest thing to an upset occurring in 2012, when Brave won over the much more celebrated Wreck-It-Ralph. There is no reason to believe that will happen this year, as Zootopia has won every major precursor award, while dominating the box-office and making waves with critics. Laika studio’s yearly entry is a possible dark horse, with Kubo and the Two Strings being the only animated film nominated for an award outside this category. However, that award is Best Visual Effects, and Kubo’s inclusion is truly one of the more bizarre choices in recent Oscar memory. Kubo is the best film of the five nominated, with Studio Ghibli’s The Red Turtle close behind, but both will be hard-pressed to upset Zootopia.

Documentary Shorts: Joe’s Violin So, here’s what you need to know: 3 films (White Helmets, 4.1 Miles, Watani) are about the European migrant crisis and Syria. Joe’s Violin concerns a Holocaust survivor donating his violin to a Bronx school for music. Extremis chronicles palliative doctors as they work hand-in-hand with families making end-of-life decisions. For a category that is historically bleak, this is an abyss of misery. Extremis is the best “Film” in the group, but I’ve never been able to getting a feeling for this category. In years past, there’s always one film I can’t see, and that ends up winning. This year that film would be Watani: My Homeland, which is definitely a potential winner, as it is about Syrian children acclimating to their new life in Germany, which seems extremely relevant. The White Helmets has been popping up on a lot of prognosticators ballots, and it’s availability on Netflix guarantees that it has a larger audience than the other nominees. Lately Joe’s Violin has been picking up a lot of momentum and has moved into frontrunner status. It’s both the most life-affirming film, and also deals with the Holocaust, which bodes well for its award chances. But really, any of these films could win.

Animated Short Will Win: Piper Should Win: Piper This is usually a very competitive category, but Piper has been the frontrunner since the nominations were announced. Pixar hasn’t won here since 2001, so they’re due, and Piper is the best film of the bunch, which nearly assures of the Studio’s fourth Animated Short Oscar. If there is an upset in this category, it would be the emotional Pearl, but it seems unlikely.

Live Action Short Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs Should Win: Ennemis Interieurs While this category is never a “sure thing”, Ennemis Interieurs seems poised to win, as it outclasses every other short film by a wide margin. It’s a sharply written, well directed short that turns a passport application interview between a Muslim man and an French official into a taut, psychological thriller. The only other film that comes close to it quality-wise is Timecode, which is a sweet little film about two security guards who silently leave each other videos of themselves dancing in the abandoned parking garage. It’s a cute film, and the only nominee that leaves you smiling, but it’s very lightweight. Silent Nights is possibly the worst Short Film Nominee I’ve ever seen, so treacly, poorly acted and ridiculous that it just could win. Sing is fine, but remarkably unremarkable. La Femme de la TGV is another light, breezy film whose “Wes Anderson-meets-Amelie aesthetic” could turn some voters heads, but it has no real emotional impact. Unless you’ve got some inside info that I’m not privy to, take Ennemis.

[hyperbolog]

2017 Oscar Winner Predictions Part 1 : The La La Lands

Here are the six technical categories that La La Land has on lockdown:

Score Song ‘City of Stars’ Cinematography Production Design Editing Sound Mixing

If you want to go for a major upset in any of these categories, Cinematography is your best bet, with possible La La Land fatigue allowing Moonlight to sneak in and steal a win. Also, there are two songs nominated for La La Land, so the voters could split, giving it to Lin-Manuel Miranda for Moana, bringing him closer to EGOT, but that’s highly unlikely. Unless some major shake-up occurs, these 6 categories belong to La La Land.

Costume Design Will Win: Jackie Should Win: Jackie Should have been Nominated: Silence or The Handmaiden

Up until very recently, I had La La Land as my choice for Costume, but Jackie has been building up momentum over the recent weeks, including a BAFTA win, and is a far more conventional choice for this award. Period pieces usually win here, and La La Land’s costumes could be best described as “Off the Rack”, whereas Jackie’s detailed recreation of the styles of a major fashion icon are central to Larrain’s film. Now, the voters may be on La La Autopilot at this point, just checking it off on every technical category, so it’s still a good choice. Also, Jackie has really failed to get major Award traction, and Portman has slipped out of contention for Best Actress, so maybe the Academy just isn’t feeling this film. Basically, flip a coin; this is the most contentious race in the technical categories.

Best Sound Editing: Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge Should Win: Arrival Should have been Nominated: The Jungle Book

First things first: the difference between Sound Mixing and Editing is this: Mixing is how all the sounds in a film (dialogue, music, effects) are properly balanced together, while Editing is the piecing together and creation of sounds that did not exist on set. That is why a film can win Mixing (which La La Land will), but not Editing. Traditionally, Sound Editing is an action movie category, recently going to Inception, Skyfall, American Sniper &tc. The likelihood of an action film winning increases dramatically if the film has multiple nominations in prestige categories that it will most definitely not win, which gives Hacksaw Ridge an historical advantage. However, La La Land is a strong contender and is going to win Sound Mixing, though I actually find the film poorly mixed and fairly muddy, particularly in the opening freeway number. I give the edge to Hacksaw, as the Academy seems to want to award this film somehow, but taking La La Land here is not a bad play. Arrival could play spoiler if Hacksaw and La La split the vote, much like Ex Machina did in last year’s Visual Effects category.

Best Visual Effects: Will Win: The Jungle Book Should Win: The Jungle Book Should have been Nominated: Arrival

This award usually goes to the film with the MOST visual effects, which would be The Jungle Book. It helps that The Jungle Book is a pretty good film, one that was both critically lauded and commercially successful. Rogue One does the best job of incorporating practical and digital effects, but it’s hard to imagine that it will succeed where The Force Awakens failed. Now, that was mostly due to voters splitting their ballots between Star Wars and Mad Max, and there is no real comparison this year, as Deepwater Horizon, Kubo and Doctor Strange are not going to get enough votes to pull off an Ex Machina surprise. Right now, The Jungle Book is the presumptive favourite, with Rogue One as a possible spoiler.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Will Win: Star Trek Beyond Should Win: Star Trek Beyond Should have been Nominated: Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie & Deadpool

Well, this category had a good streak going recently, with the last 3 statues going to Dallas Buyers Club, Budapest Hotel and Mad Max, but all things fall apart. Now it’s regressed back to the category that once gave an Academy Award to Harry and the Hendersons. Can you imagine the Academy voting for Suicide Squad? I can’t. This is between Ove and Star Trek, with Trek the frontrunner as people have actually seen it. A Man Called Ove is also nominated in Foreign Language, which elevates its status, so there’s a chance for the little seen Swedish film to win, but it’s slim. This category was fucked from the get-go, when predicted winner Deadpool failed to get a nom, and why the Academy did not nominate other prestige pics, such as Jackie or Florence Foster Jenkins baffles me. The decision to nominated Suicide Squad, which, if it were not for Passengers, would be the worst film nominated in 2017, is just a terrible, terrible, god-awful choice. I wish Superhero movies would get the fuck out of my Oscars.

[hyperbolog]

Best Horror Films of 1986

1986 was a remarkable year for Horror films. Much like the films of 1984, Horror embraces genre fluidity, melding with Action, Sci-fi, Noir and Comedy. However, the films of 1986 do not achieve the results of 84s crop, failing to crossover into mainstream, blockbuster success. Five of the films that appear on this list are among the ten best reviewed films of 1986, four are nominated for Academy Awards, including Best Director and Best Actress, with two films winning Oscars. Yet Aliens is the only one to appear in the Box Office top ten. It would take years of cult appreciation and positive word of mouth for these films to develop the audience which had eluded them upon release. John McNaughton’s Henry could barely find a distributor, before languishing for three years in MPAA purgatory. When Henry was finally released in 1990, with an X rating, it received rave reviews, and would become a revolutionary locus point for Slasher films. Henry is a brutal, unflinching examination of evil made more lurid and frightening due to budgetary constraints. Shot on 16mm, McNaughton’s film has a documentary quality to it, which decreases the audiences ability to distance themselves from the the films content. Henry’s boogeyman is not the faceless, killing machine of past Slashers, but a real-world, living nightmare. The violence in Henry is not presented as set-pieces built around make-up and effects, nor is the film concerned with eliciting jump scares. The Horror in Henry is achieved through depictions of escalating violence that linger psychologically and infect every scene of the film with dread and terror. Cronenberg’s reimagining of The Fly is the purest example of his body-horror aesthetic; his primary focus the charting of Goldblum’s decomposition. It is also the rare remake that doesn't just improve upon the source material, but consumes the original entirely. Frank Oz’s Little Shop of Horrors shares that distinction, having dismantled Corman’s original film so thoroughly, that it has replaced it in popular culture. As a sequel, Aliens distinguishes itself entirely from the original by avoiding any attempt to replicate Scott’s masterpiece. Instead, Cameron’s film is a face paced, muscular, monster movie, assembled as a non-stop action, carnival ride. And then there’s David Lynch’s Blue Velvet, a masterpiece of Horror-Noir and the perfect distillation of his darkly comic, surreal worldview. Made in the shadow of professional and personal failure that followed Lynch post-Dune, Blue Velvet sees the auteur operating with complete freedom; the results a terrifying and unique cinematic experience that would take him 15 years to replicate. No film of the decade dissects Reagan-era repression better, cutting away the artifice of the 80s to reveal a sinister, suburban underworld full of monsters and madmen.

1:   Blue Velvet dir. David Lynch 2:   Henry: Portrait of a Serial Killer dir. John McNaughton 3:   The Fly dir. David Cronenberg 4:   Aliens dir. James Cameron 5:   Little Shop of Horrors dir. Frank Oz 6:   From Beyond dir. Stuart Gordon 7:   Manhunter dir. Michael Mann 8:   The Hitcher dir. Robert Harmon 9:   Night of the Creeps dir. Fred Dekker 10: The Texas Chainsaw Massacre 2 dir. Tobe Hooper

Honourable Mention: Critters, House, Deadly Friend, Invaders from mars, Maximum Overdrive, April Fool’s Day, Chopping Mall

[hyperbolog]

Best Horror Films of 1985

1985 was a good time to be a Zombie fan. In 85,the progenitor of the genre completes his career defining trilogy, while a trio of new filmmakers subvert Zombie tropes and articulate the anxieties of a new generation. Romero’s Living Dead series had always been overtly politically, the horror genre a Trojan Horse where he hides his criticisms of the Vietnam war, racism and consumerism. Like Night and Dawn before it, Day of the Dead is a rumination on human behaviour in the wake of social upheaval. For Romero, zombies are a narrative tool to examine the dynamic that occurs when disparate people, with conflicting agendas become reliant on each other for survival. Though still quite good, Day is the weakest of his trilogy, poorly paced for its length, his actors simply outmatched by his pedantic, wordy script. Re-Animator, Return of the Living Dead and Demons are not as politically focused as Romero’s films, but reflect a larger cultural shift. These films depict a Regan-era wasteland, populated by disaffected youth, who find no safety or solace in cultural institutions. Stuart Gordon’s Re-Animator is a hodgepodge of horror mythologies, taking elements from Lovecraft, Frankenstein and Zombie films, coalescing into a  blood-soaked, satirical cartoon of academia and the medical community. Gordon’s debut is a remarkably confident Horror-Comedy; a must-see Loney Tunes-meets-Fulci slapstick, gorefest. Screenwriter Dan O’Bannon makes his directorial debut with Return of the Living Dead, a punk-rock, zombie comedy, where the accidental leaking of a secret military gas brings the dead back to life. O’Bannon’s irreverent take on the genre is also the first to film establish Brains as the key nutritional component of a Zombie diet. Bava’s Demons does not display the same wit and comic sensibility of Gordon and O’Bannon’s films, but retains the punk aesthetic and Us vs Them mentality. Demons is the most overtly self-reflexive of these films, taking place in a movie theatre where the infection is spread cinematically. Vampires also have a pretty big year. Fright Night shares Demons reflexivity, as the young protagonist is aware of the rules of Vampirism from watching Horror movies. And then there’s the batshit Lifeforce, scripted by O’Bannon and directed by Tobe Hooper, where the sexually transmittable disease of vampirism becomes a metaphor for the AIDs epidemic. Oh, and the vampires are from space.

1985

1:   Re-Animator dir. Stuart Gordon 2:   The Return of the Living Dead dir. Dan O’Bannon 3:   Day of the Dead dir. George A. Romero 4:   Fright Night dir. Tom Holland 5:   Phenomena dir. Dario Argento 6:   Lifeforce dir. Tobe Hooper 7:   Demons dir. Lamberto Bava 8:   The Stuff dir. Larry Cohen 9:   A Nightmare on Elm Street 2: Freddy’s Revenge dir. Jack Sholder 10: The Doctor and the Devils dir. Freddie Francis

Honourable Mention: Friday the 13th Pt. 5: A New Beginning, Cat’s Eye, Silver Bullet, Ghoulies, Howling II, Mr. Vampire

[hyperbolog]

Best Horror Films of 1984

In many ways, Horror had never been more popular than in 1984, with two of the highest grossing films of the year, Gremlins and Ghostbusters, ostensibly belonging to the genre. And James Cameron’s breakthrough The Terminator, with its high-concept Slasher conceit, successfully blended Horror and Science Fiction in a way not seen since Alien. But none of these films were strictly Horror and the quest to replicate their box-office success did not bring about a mainstream renaissance for the genre. Rather, in the years that followed, studios shifted their primary focus to developing four-quadrant blockbusters, with built in merchandising. No longer would a film’s marketability and success be solely dependent upon the approval of one genre’s fan-base. Serious, adult-oriented horror films would be pushed to the fringes of cinema, with ultra-cheap direct-to-video releases becoming the preferred method of distribution. Of 1984’s blockbuster crossover films, Gremlins is the both the closest to proper Horror and the best. Joe Dante’s apprenticeship in the Roger Corman coal-mines made him uniquely qualified to direct Gremlins. With the assistance of writer John Sayles, he had already gained an education on how to transform B-Movie premises into Grade-A entertainment. If a director had taken Gremlins too seriously or treated the material too reverently, the film could have easily been a failure. Instead, in Dante’s hands, the film becomes a perversion of Americana; the Capraesque, small-town Christmas setting mutating into a Caligarian, nightmare carnival ride. Cameron was also a former Corman disciple, and even worked with Dante on Rock N’ Roll High School before making his feature film debut with Piranha II, which was a sequel to a film of Dante’s. That’s where the similarities end. Cameron’s Terminator is an extremely dark, humourless, apocalypse film that weaves expertly between action, sci-fi and horror. Coming from the effects department, Cameron is more of a technician than Dante and, as such, his film lacks the heart and humanity of Gremlins. This minor deficit is overcome by the casting of Schwarzenegger, whose deadpan expression and robotic delivery make him the perfect, inhuman stalker; an android Michael Myers, a cyborg Jason Voorhees. Though those films reverberated throughout popular culture, in Horror fandom no event is more important than the debut of the genre’s most beloved child murderer, Freddy Kruger. Wes Craven’s A Nightmare on Elm Street is a touchstone for an entire generation of Horror fans, eager for a new, creative spin on the Slasher formula. In the wake Halloween’s tremendous success, the slasher film was catapulted to the forefront of the Horror genre. As film after film attempted to replicate Carpenter’s formula, the narrative possibilities narrowed, and within just 6 years the market was flooded with pale, cookie-cutter imitations, built around teenagers falling  prey to silent, faceless, knife-wielding stalkers. Enter Craven’s Kruger; a wise-cracking, knife-fingered, dream-demon, infecting the subconscious of the children of Elm Street. Craven imbues his monster with motivation and purpose and then gives him his own hellish dreamscape; a personal inferno with which to operate in and manipulate. It’s an ingenious and highly cinematic premise, brought to life through imaginative practical effects and Englund’s committed performance. And there’s also Ghostbusters, which is not nearly as funny as you remember, but does have peak era Rick Moranis

1.   Gremlins dir. Joe Dante 2.   The Terminator dir. James Cameron 3.   A Nightmare on Elm Street dir. Wes Craven 4.   Ghostbusters dir. Ivan Reitman 5.   Night of the Comet dir. Thom Eberhardt 6.   In the Company of Wolves dir. Neil Jordan 7.   Children of the Corn dir. Fritz Kiersch 8:   Friday the 13th: The Final Chapter dir. Joseph Zito 9:   Dreamscape dir. Joseph Ruben 10: The Toxic Avenger dir. Lloyd Kaufman, Michael Herz

Honourable Mention: C.H.U.D, Veneno para las hadas

[hyperbolog]

Best Horror Films of 1983

1983 belongs to David Cronenberg. With Videodrome, Cronenberg’s obsessions with communicable madness and body-centric horror coalesce into his first masterpiece. Videodrome is the artistic apex of Cronenberg’s early work and with it’s completion, closes out the first arc of his career. The Dead Zone marks the beginning his second phase; the point in which he shifts from original scripts built around shocking, sexual violence, to manipulating source material with his unique, fetishistic vision. Gerald Kargl’s Angst displays an astounding disparity between subject matter and style, his cinematography and camerawork so technically impressive that the film transcends it’s exploitative home-invasion plot. This style-over-substance approach to filmmaking is also applicable to Tony Scott’s erotic, gorgeous mess of a vamp film The Hunger and Carpenter’s Christine, which is less of a horror film and more of a satire of American car culture. Overall, 83 is not a great year for the genre. Twilight Zone, though helmed by a murderers row of directing talent, is remarkably underwhelming. This is mostly due to the film’s fatally flawed conceit of recreating beloved episodes from the iconic show, rather than focusing on original stories. Oh, and that the film was cursed. That too. Psycho II, though ranking high on the list of Sequels No One Asked For, is actually quite enjoyable. Anthony Perkins, reprising his role, gives a great performance as the recently paroled Norman Bates, desperately trying to avoid reoffending, despite many, many triggers. The film also contains a 3rd act twist that’s both inspired and ridiculous. The hidden gem of 1983 is Xtro, a low-budget, high-concept Sci-fi/Body-Horror film that, as the description suggests, defies classification. Think Cronenberg working from a Dan O’Bannon script, produced by Roger Corman.

1983 1:   Videodrome dir. David Cronenberg 2:   Angst dir. Gerald Kargl 3:   The Dead Zone dir. David Cronenberg 4:   The Hunger dir. Tony Scott 5:   Psycho II dir. Richard Franklin 6:   Xtro dir. Harry Bromley Davenport 7:   Something Wicked This Way Comes dir. Jack Clayton 8:   Christine dir. John Carpenter 9:   Twilight Zone: The Movie dir. Joe Dante, John Landis, Steven Spielberg 10: The House of Long Shadows dir. Pete Walker

Honourable Mention: The Slasher trend continues, though Curtains, The House on Sorority Row, Sleepaway Camp, A Blade in the Dark and Frightmare are all above-average entries for the Sub-genre and worthy of cult status. Nightmares is a fun anthology film, most notable for being directed by Joesph Sargent, who made the original (and fantastic) The Taking of Pelham One Two Three, as well as the fascinatingly terrible Jaws: The Revenge. Hong Kong Zombie film Zhong Gui (Seeding of a Ghost) is worth seeking out for anyone interested in the intersection of those two cinematic styles.

[hyperbolog]

Best Horror Films of 1982

Before the genre was flooded with recycled narratives and tortured tropes, the 1980s were a remarkably strong decade for Horror. The early 80s were full of landmark films, comparable to the best work from the 30s, 60s and 70s. In 1982 studios were still financing big-budget fright flicks, helmed by talented filmmakers eager to explore the playful possibilities of the genre. It's the year that sees the release of The Thing and Poltergeist, two of the most beloved and celebrated Horror films of all-time. Argento’s Tenbrae, is not only his best film of the decade, but his last truly great giallo. King and Romero’s collaborative efforts result in the best anthology film of the 80s; the terrific EC Comics homage Creepshow. And, in their third instalments, two tent-pole franchises find themselves moving in opposite directions. The Friday the 13th series provides Jason with his iconic hockey mask, and wraps up the initial trilogy arc with one of the series strongest entries. While Halloween makes the bold choice to alienate fans the first two films by releasing a stand-alone feature completely devoid of Michael Myers. Season of the Witch, when viewed as its own film removed from the Myers mythology, is actually a lot better than reputation suggests and is worthy of re-evaluation among genre fans. Also, Pieces came out, and that movie is great.

The Thing dir. John Carpenter

Tenebrae dir. Dario Argento

Poltergeist dir. Tobe Hooper

Creepshow dir. George A. Romero

White Dog dir. Sam Fuller

Friday the 13th pt.3 dir. Steve Miner

The Entity dir. Sidney J. Furie

Pieces dir. J. Piquér Simon

Cat People dir. Paul Schrader

Halloween III: Season of the Witch dir. Tommy Lee Wallace

Honourable Mention: Basket Case, Q: The Winged Serpent, Variola Vera, Madman, The Living Dead Girl, Alone in the Dark, The New York Ripper

[hyperbolog]

Best Horror Films of 1981

1981 is another landmark year, as new filmmakers begin to establish themselves as masters of the genre, subverting, refining and deconstructing classic Horror tropes. 1981 is a particularly good year for lycanthropes, with the birth of a new franchise in The Howling and the release of one the best werewolf films of all time (and inaugural winner of the Best Makeup Oscar) American Werewolf in London. Raimi's Evil Dead trilogy begins, Cronenberg sets the standard for exploding heads, and Fulci makes his psychedelic, gory masterpiece. Honourable Mention: slasher films continue to dominate horror, with fan favourites The Prowler, My Bloody Valentine, The Burning, Just Before Dawn and Friday the 13th Pt. 2 all seeing a 1981 release. Craven's Deadly Blessing features an all time great horror performance in Ernest Borgnine's murderous, Hittite patriarch. Fulci's House By the Cemetery is a frightening as it is ludicrous, and remains a must-see for gore fans. 

1.   An American Werewolf in London dir. John Landis 2.   Dead & Buried dir. Gary A. Sherman 3.   The Evil Dead dir. Sam Raimi 4.   Scanners dir. David Cronenberg 5.   The Beyond dir. Lucio Fulci 6.   Possession dir. Andrzej Zulawski 7.   The Howling dir. Joe Dante 8.   Eyes of a Stranger dir. Ken Wiederhorn 9.   Hallowen II dir. Rick Rosenthal 10. The Funhouse dir. Tope Hooper