Your Guide to the New Senate in 2013, Same as the Old Senate?
Of the many pieces of sage advice my dad gave me when I was young, a frequent piece was: “Don’t assume anything – when you assume, you make an a$$ out of you and me.” With apologies to my dad as we head into the Father’s Day weekend, I hope to shed some light on the future makeup of the United States Senate, particularly the Democratic leadership and committee structure. In doing this, I will be making a number of assumptions.
Without getting into a Charlie Cook-like analysis about the Senate seats in play this cycle, or what Sen. Richard Lugar’s (R-IN) primary defeat or Sen. Olympia Snowe’s (R-ME) retirement mean for the GOP in its quest for 51 seats, let’s ASSUME that neither Democrats nor Republicans are able to fundamentally change the Senate’s balance of power. That means Republicans won’t pick up more than three Senate seats and Democrats won’t either. If Republicans did pick up three seats, Vice President Joe Biden would be the tie-breaking, 51st vote, giving Democrats control of the chamber even with a 50-50 split. If the Democrats were to pick up Senate seats, that may affect the committee membership ratios, leaving fewer seats for Republicans on key committees.
Therefore, it is a safe prediction that the members of the core Senate Democratic leadership team – Sens. Harry Reid (NV), Dick Durbin (IL), Chuck Schumer (NY) and Patty Murray (WA) – remain intact for the 113th Congress. One big change would be political, not legislative: who would chair the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC)? Insiders believe Sens. Amy Klobuchar (MN), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) and Michael Bennet (CO) are strong candidates for that important position given their fundraising prowess and political smarts. Here’s a small insight into the importance of running the DSCC: Sens. Murray and Schumer have both chaired the DSCC twice in the last decade and both are in the Democratic leadership AND sit on the key Appropriations and Finance Committees, respectively.
The retirements of long-serving senators will leave a number of vacancies on powerful committees, particularly the Finance and Appropriations panels. Sens. Kent Conrad (ND) and Jeff Bingaman (NM) are leaving their full committee chairmanships (Budget and Energy and Natural Resources, respectively) and both are leaving their subcommittee chairmanships on the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee. Those will be huge voids for moderate Senate seats in New Mexico and North Dakota (both of which I believe will remain in the Democratic column with candidates such as Martin Heinrich and Heidi Heitkamp). On the Budget Committee, the most likely choice for chairman will be Sen. Patty Murray, who has been in leadership and also chairs the DSCC. On the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the next senior member is Sen. Ron Wyden (OR) and he is a lock to become chairman.
Unfortunately for Senate hopefuls Mr. Heinrich and Ms. Heitkamp, if they win they will not be in line for those two Finance Committee vacancies, which will most likely go to the most senior Democrats not currently serving on the Finance or Appropriations panels.
The retirements of Sens. Herb Kohl (WI) and Ben Nelson (NE) will also leave big voids in the other top tier committee – Appropriations. Sen. Kohl chairs the agriculture subcommittee and Sen. Nelson chairs the legislative branch subcommittee on Appropriations. That committee will also have to choose new subcommittee chairs AND fill those vacancies with two of the four members who are next in line based on seniority.
The Democratic senators who are next in line (i.e., most senior and don’t have full committee chairmanships or spots on Finance or Appropriations) in order of seniority are – Bob Casey (PA), Claire McCaskill (MO), Amy Klobuchar (MN) and Sheldon Whitehouse (RI). In the event there are any Democratic losses among the aforementioned seats or any defeats of incumbents sitting on those two committees, the next four Democratic senators by seniority are Mark Udall (CO), Tom Udall (NM), Jeanne Shaheen (NH) and Mark Warner (VA). All eight of these members are well liked; have identified or taken the lead on various issues important to the Democratic Caucus; and have reached across party lines to tackle issues such as the debt ceiling, military readiness, energy, and government waste.
The other important committee chairmen who are leaving the Senate are: Joe Lieberman (I-CT) on Homeland Security and Government Affairs, Dan Akaka (HI) on Indian Affairs, Herb Kohl (WI) on Aging. Those chairmanships will likely be filled respectively by Tom Carper (DE), Maria Cantwell (WA),and Bill Nelson (FL). With Patty Murray moving to Budget, her current post as chairman of the Veteran’s Affairs Committee would need to be filled as well. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) or Sherrod Brown (OH) would be the most likely candidates for that post.
Since many senators serve on four committees, the retirements I’ve highlighted also impact some other committees. Below is a quick reference for all the Senate Committees, the potential new Chair, and key vacancies of senior members.
While this provides some window into the future, I won’t assume that it answers every question.
RISING DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE CHAIRMEN/RANKING MEMBERS
COMMITTEE: CURRENT CHAIR, NEXT CHAIR, KEY VACANCIES
Agriculture: Stabenow, Stabenow, Conrad and Nelson
Appropriations: Inouye, Inouye, Kohl (Ag) and Nelson (Leg)
Armed Services: Levin, Levin, Akaka; Webb; Nelson and Lieberman
Banking: Johnson, Johnson, Akaka and Kohl
Budget: Conrad (retiring), Murray
Commerce Rockefeller, Rockefeller
Energy: Bingaman (retiring), Wyden
EPW: Boxer. Boxer
Finance: Baucus, Baucus, Conrad (Tax) and Bingaman (Energy)
Foreign Relations: Kerry, Kerry, Webb
HELP: Harkin, Harkin, Bingaman
Homeland (HSGAC): Lieberman (retiring), Carper, Akaka
Judiciary: Leahy, Leahy, Kohl (Antitrust)
Rules: Schumer, Schumer, Nelson
Small Business: Landrieu, Landrieu, Lieberman
Veterans: Murray, Sanders/S. Brown ?, Akaka and Webb
Indian Affairs: Akaka (retiring), Cantwell, Conrad
Intelligence: Feinstein, Feinstein, Conrad
Aging: Kohl (retiring), Nelson