The AI buildout is the largest capital expenditure in the history of the technology industry. The financial structure holding it together ha
Ha csak egy cikket akarsz elolvesni az AI lufirol, akkor az ez legyen.
A legfontosabb tetelmondatok:
[...] the capital expenditure being committed is not priced for a technology that is useful. It is priced for a technology that is transformative — for something approaching artificial general intelligence, arriving on a timeline measured in months rather than decades. The problem is that the underlying architecture cannot deliver that. Large language models predict the next token; they do not model the world, plan across steps, or reason about consequences.
Azaz az LLM architektura nem fogja elhozni az AGI-t
But a meaningful share of what is being reported as demand is friction, waste, and compensation for the very limitations the architecture cannot resolve. Users write longer prompts to constrain outputs that drift. They make multiple attempts at the same task because the model cannot reliably plan across steps. They build elaborate scaffolding — tracing, retrieval systems, verification loops, chain-of-thought prompting, recursion engines — to approximate capabilities the architecture does not natively possess. Each workaround consumes tokens. Each token is counted as demand. A portion of the consumption curve is not demand for the product. It is demand for the product to be something it is not yet. The spend rises precisely because agentic AI is not the AGI the investment assumes. [...] The buyers have not learned to manage and the sellers have not learned to price, the two failures meeting in the middle and being reported, in the aggregate, as demand. The buildout is being sized against consumption figures that include their own inefficiency — and the revenue projections required to justify it assume this inflated consumption will grow, not contract, as teams mature and architectures stabilize.
Az AI iranti kereslet jelentos resze nem valos, hanem magabol a technologia tokeletlensegebol adodik. Viszont a befektetok fele ez a megnovekedett "igeny" mint valodi igeny jelenik meg.
When Microsoft invests thirteen billion in OpenAI and books the returning Azure spend as AI revenue growth, the topology is the same one Qwest built: each participant reports the other’s spending as income, and the aggregate is presented to investors as organic demand.
Egy hasonlo anomalia makro szinten, hogy a demand mestersegesen van felpumpalva.
The reason none of them can stop is that the investment, the revenue, and the justification for the next investment are the same transaction. If Microsoft reduces its OpenAI commitment, it loses one of Azure’s largest customers, the AI revenue line that justifies $192 billion in capex, and the earnings growth that holds its stock price — all at once.
Es az ok hogy miert nem lehet leszallni a vonatrol.
This is where Friar’s remark becomes legible. She was not freeforming. She was describing the mechanism that can close the gap between what the buildout costs and what it earns. The people building these systems know the architecture is not AGI — they have said so publicly, repeatedly, on the record. They are selling it at a price only AGI could justify, building software scaffolding to maintain the appearance of progress, and financing the difference with instruments designed so that when the gap becomes undeniable, public money covers it. The backstop is not a contingency for a risk they hope to avoid. It is the mechanism that makes the entire structure viable.
It has always been a move available to those who build complex systems to use the complexity itself as leverage — to secure investment, financing, and time from people who do not understand what is being built. The railroad barons did it with federal land grants. The defense contractors did it with cost-plus procurement. The telecom executives did it with demand projections they knew were false.
They are building it anyway, because the financial structure ensures they do not need it to work. It needs only to continue. The companies and people at its center are enriched at every step — equity in the labs they fund, stock in the companies they run, fees on the debt they structure, carry on the funds they manage. When Friar said “backstop,” she was not describing a contingency. She was describing the business model. The buildout is underwritten by an implicit guarantee that none of the people who made the bet will be the ones who pay for it.
[...]
Employees at Qwest had a name for the practice of filling each quarter’s gap between real revenue and the projection. They called it heroin, because each quarter required a larger dose.
The dose is $544 billion this year.
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