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🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: BoJ Holds and Upgrades the Outlook, Tokyo Intervenes, Korea Posts a Record Rally 🇯🇵 🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan held rates but raised its growth forecast and moved economic risks to balanced. Takata dissented for a back-to-back hike.

🇯🇵 💴 Tokyo is believed to have intervened overnight, sending the yen sharply higher. Officials hinted Washington helped. 🇰🇷 🇰🇷 Korean shares jumped a record amount as the AI trade roared back. SK Hynix and Samsung both surged.

🇨🇳 🇨🇳 China's factory gauge unexpectedly fell into contraction, with services slipping below the expansion line too. 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 Warsh hinted at a new inflation framework, unsettling investors already uneasy about a market-driven Fed.

Today's Macro Roadmap: Euro-area flash inflation lands at 11:00 CET, with the core rate the number that matters. The US employment cost index follows at 14:30 CET and the final Michigan survey at 16:00 CET, and the Bank of England's Huw Pill speaks at 13:15 CET after dissenting for a hike.

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🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: Chip Rout Swamps the Oil Relief as Three Central Banks Line Up 🇨🇳 A semiconductor selloff swept Asia after a report that China has begun mass producing advanced lithography machines, and Nvidia's latest deals revived questions about circular AI funding

🇰🇷 Korean equities fell far enough to force a trading halt, with the memory names hit hardest 🛢️ Crude extended its slide as Iranian and Omani negotiators worked towards reopening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz

🇬🇧 UK shop price inflation fell to a six-month low, undershooting expectations two days before the Bank of England decides 🇦🇺 RBA Governor Bullock said it is unclear whether this year's hikes are enough, but called financial conditions a bit restrictive, and traders trimmed August odds

🇺🇸 Citadel Securities broke with the consensus and said it expects the Fed to raise rates on Wednesday Today's Macro Roadmap: US Conference Board consumer confidence and the advance goods trade balance, the last inputs before the Fed convenes.

Earnings from Boeing, Coca-Cola, Visa and Barclays. 📄 Read the full macro brief (no paywall):

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#Macro #Rates #FX

Markets Briefing: Chips Lift Asia as Oil Climbs and the Yen Sinks to a Four-Decade Low Read full: @GFXFTs

Real-time audio squawk, scrolling headlines and 24/7 macro market analysis for traders, hedge funds and institutional investors.

📊🇯🇵 GGMA Chart of the Day: Japanese inflation expectations are climbing, strengthening the case for more BOJ hikes. 90.4% of households now expect higher prices in a year (up from 83.7% in March), and 86.1% over five years. Source: BOJ, GGMA: Two-week free trial, no credit card, link in bio

KOSPI surges as softer US inflation revives the AI trade, oil climbs on Hormuz. 🧵 ··· 🇰🇷 Asian equities rallied on softer US inflation. South Korea's KOSPI soared on a chip-sector rebound, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng higher, as traders priced out a near-term Fed hike. Dax futures in the red ···

🛢️ Oil rose a third day as the US resumed its blockade on Iranian shipping and struck near the Strait of Hormuz, keeping an energy-inflation risk in play. ··· 🇨🇳 China's Q2 GDP slowed to 4.3 per cent, below consensus, but June output and retail sales beat.

US PPI is the pre-FOMC focus, with core seen firm at 0.4 per cent. ··· 📅 Ahead: the Bank of Canada is expected to hold, MPR tone in focus. Warsh testifies again this afternoon, alongside Fed voters Williams and Cook. ··· Full report 👇

Real-time audio squawk, scrolling headlines and 24/7 macro market analysis for traders, hedge funds and institutional investors.

📌 Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap, Wednesday 15 July Three continents, three main events: China Q2 GDP, the Bank of Canada decision, and US PPI the day after CPI. A heavy central-bank speaker slate on top. Thread 👇 ···

🇨🇳 China Q2 GDP, 04:00 CET: growth seen slowing to 4.5% y/y from 5.0%, released with the full June activity dump. The year's defining split, resilient industry and exports against soft retail sales and still-falling property. ···

🇨🇦 Bank of Canada, 15:45 CET: a hold at 2.25% is near-unanimous, so the Monetary Policy Report is the event. The real two-way risk is the forward signal, excess-supply caution against a higher inflation profile after a hot May. ···

🇺🇸 US June PPI, 14:30 CET: headline seen flat as energy reverses, but core firm at 0.4%. Several PPI service lines feed core PCE, so this week's CPI and PPI together shape the Fed's preferred gauge before the 27-28 July meeting. ··· 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Warsh testifies again, 16:00 CET.

Day one saw him double down on the 2% target, call the balance sheet part of monetary policy, and say the Fed will stay independent on his watch. Day two is the follow-up. ···

🇺🇸 Two FOMC voters on the wires: NY Fed's Williams at 14:45 CET, the first senior-voter reaction to this week's inflation data, and Governor Cook at 19:00 CET, speaking late enough to weigh the full CPI-plus-PPI picture. ···

🇪🇺 European tail: final Swedish, Spanish and Norwegian inflation plus euro-area industrial production, with a live question over whether Norway's core is published at all. Plus 🇬🇧 BoE hawk Pill and 🇩🇪 Bundesbank's Nagel. ···

Full preview, every release with consensus and what to watch, free on the GGMA app 👇

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📌 Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap, Wednesday 15 July Three continents, three main events: China Q2 GDP, the Bank of Canada decision, and US PPI the day after CPI. A heavy central-bank speaker slate on top. Thread 👇 ···

🇨🇳 China Q2 GDP, 04:00 CET: growth seen slowing to 4.5% y/y from 5.0%, released with the full June activity dump. The year's defining split, resilient industry and exports against soft retail sales and still-falling property. ···

🇨🇦 Bank of Canada, 15:45 CET: a hold at 2.25% is near-unanimous, so the Monetary Policy Report is the event. The real two-way risk is the forward signal, excess-supply caution against a higher inflation profile after a hot May. ···

🇺🇸 US June PPI, 14:30 CET: headline seen flat as energy reverses, but core firm at 0.4%. Several PPI service lines feed core PCE, so this week's CPI and PPI together shape the Fed's preferred gauge before the 27-28 July meeting. ···

🇺🇸 Fed Chair Warsh testifies again, 16:00 CET. Day one saw him double down on the 2% target, call the balance sheet part of monetary policy, and say the Fed will stay independent on his watch. Day two is the follow-up. ···

🇺🇸 Two FOMC voters on the wires: NY Fed's Williams at 14:45 CET, the first senior-voter reaction to this week's inflation data, and Governor Cook at 19:00 CET, speaking late enough to weigh the full CPI-plus-PPI picture. ···

🇪🇺 European tail: final Swedish, Spanish and Norwegian inflation plus euro-area industrial production, with a live question over whether Norway's core is published at all. Plus 🇬🇧 BoE hawk Pill and 🇩🇪 Bundesbank's Nagel. ···

Full preview, every release with consensus and what to watch, free on the GGMA app 👇

Real-time audio squawk, scrolling headlines and 24/7 macro market analysis for traders, hedge funds and institutional investors.

🌏 Market open, 14 July: China's export beat lifts Asia and metals as rate-hike bets build before US CPI. 🇨🇳 China's June exports surged 27% and imports 36%, far above forecast, widening the trade surplus. Copper climbed and Asian equities firmed.

🇰🇷 Korea's Kospi rose as SK Hynix rebounded from Monday's record slide, and China's CSI 300 climbed. 🛢️ Oil held its gains after Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade of Iranian ships.

🇺🇸 Fed's Waller said the FOMC may need to tighten if core CPI runs hot this week, and markets moved to price roughly even odds of a July hike before Warsh's testimony. 🇯🇵 The yen firmed and JGBs rallied, the 10-year yield falling, on Katayama's pension-cash push.

🥇 Gold extended its haven bid and Bitcoin firmed, steadier than stocks into the US inflation print. 📲 Full brief, no paywall:

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📌 Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap 🇨🇦 Canada Labour Market Report 🇯🇵 Japan PPI 🇩🇪🇫🇷 DE & FR Final HCPI (watch core) 🇪🇺 ECB's VP Vujčić Full preview 👇

Real-time audio squawk, scrolling headlines and 24/7 macro market analysis for traders, hedge funds and institutional investors.

🇨🇦 Canada labour force survey — 14:30 CET After May's blockbuster gain of 88,000 jobs, the market looks for a sharp slowdown to around 10,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 6.6%. The outcome matters for how long the Bank of Canada can stay on hold.

🇯🇵 Japan PPI — 01:50 CET Producer inflation seen rising to 6.8% y/y from 6.3%, monthly pace easing to ~0.3%. Reflects the pass-through of higher energy and oil-related input costs into a widening range of goods. A firmer print reinforces the case that price pressure is broadening beyond fuel.

🇩🇪🇫🇷 Germany & France — final June inflation 🇩🇪 harmonised rate seen confirmed at 2.4% y/y (from 2.7%) 🇫🇷 harmonised rate seen at 2.0% (from 2.8%) As final releases, the potential for surprise is low. Focus is on the core and services details for the underlying trend.

🌍 IEA monthly oil market report — 11:00 CET Lands amid the US-Iran conflict having flared again, with traffic in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted. With crude having climbed on the renewed fighting, focus is on the agency's read of Gulf supply and any revision to its demand outlook.

🇪🇺 ECB VP Boris Vujčić speaks — 08:15 CET Now the ECB's number two, succeeding Luis de Guindos. He's defended the 11 June quarter-point hike, sees headline and core inflation "higher for longer, into 2027," with longer-term expectations anchored at 2% and "no sign of second-round effects" on wages

🗓️ Also on the calendar: 🇧🇷 Brazil June CPI · 🇲🇽 Mexico industrial production · 🇮🇹 Italian industrial output 📲 Real-time macro squawk & chat on GGMA — iPhone & browser. 2-week free trial, no credit card required:

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#Macro #Rates #FX

📋 Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap 🇪🇺 ECB account of 11 June meeting (13:30 CET) — deposit rate raised 25bps to 2.25%; markets now watching for a September follow-up 🇬🇧 UK RICS house price balance (01:01) — seen -32% vs -34% 🇨🇳 China CPI 1.1% y/y, PPI 4.1% y/y (03:30)

🇩🇪 Germany May trade balance (08:00) — exports seen -0.3% m/m 🇺🇸 US jobless claims 218k (14:30); existing home sales 4.20mn (16:00) 🎙️ Fed speakers: Williams 15:00, Logan 19:30 CET Full report:

Real-time audio squawk, scrolling headlines and 24/7 macro market analysis for traders, hedge funds and institutional investors.

In case you are wondering (like me) why the US Dollar is not firmer on the back of higher oil prices and risk aversion, I think it might have to do with the more pronounced rise in bond yields in Europe vis-à-vis the US. i.e. yield differentials are moving slightly against the US Dollar.

📊 Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap 🇪🇺 Euro-area flash CPI day: France (08:45), Italy (11:00) & Germany (14:00) report June inflation — German print is pivotal, with forecasts unusually wide ahead of the ECB's July meeting.

🦅 ECB Sintra Forum, Day 2: Schnabel (most hawkish voice), Lane & BoE's Breeden on AI & financial stability panels. 🇦🇺 RBA June minutes (03:30) — watching how firmly the Board kept its tightening bias after a hawkish hold at 4.35%.

🇺🇸 US labour warm-up: JOLTS, Conference Board confidence & Chicago PMI — the lead-in to Thursday's payrolls. Plus 🇨🇳 China PMIs, 🇬🇧 UK Q1 GDP & 🇨🇦 Canada GDP. #Macro #ECB #RBA #Inflation

Real-time audio squawk, scrolling headlines and 24/7 macro market analysis for traders, hedge funds and institutional investors.

#Macro #ECB #RBA #Inflation

📊 Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap (Friday) A light calendar, but a few key prints to watch: 🇯🇵 Tokyo CPI (01:30 CET) — first read post-BoJ hike to 1.00%. Core seen at 1.6% vs 1.3% prior. Watch if underlying measures firm despite subsidy caps.

🇺🇸 Final UMich sentiment (16:00 CET) — the day's only truly Fed-relevant print. 1yr inflation exp seen 4.6%, long-run ~3.4% (down from 3.9%). The FOMC's tripwire is unanchoring expectations.

🇪🇺 ECB Consumer Expectations survey (10:00 CET) — is the energy-shock spike in long-run expectations unwinding? 🎙 Fedspeak: Goolsbee (hawkish AI-inflation outlier) & Kashkari (patient 2026 voter). #Macro #Fed #ECB #BoJ GGMA Admin

#Macro #Fed #ECB #BoJ

📊 Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap 🏦 Central bank speak: Fed's Kashkari (07:50 CET) & ECB's Rehn (11:00 CET) 🇨🇭 Swiss trade balance (08:00 CET) 🇪🇺 EZ inflation 🇺🇸 US JOLTS — watch the quits rate (key wage signal) Markets eyeing rate-path clues. Buckle up. #Macro #Fed #ECB

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#Macro #Fed #ECB

🗓️ Macro Roadmap for Today: 🏦 ECB's Schnabel speaks early — recently flagged a June rate hike as needed, with inflation expectations heading toward 4% 🦅 Fed's Waller (14:30 CET) has fully flipped hawkish — "next move is just as likely a hike as a cut"

📊 US ISM Manufacturing (May) — consensus sees a slight uptick; watch the prices paid component closely 🇨🇭 SNB sight deposits update at 10:00 CET — imperfect but worth monitoring for FX intervention signals A lot of central bank speak today. Markets have plenty to digest. 👀

#Macro #FedWatch #ECB #SNB #ISM #RatesOutlook GGMA Squawk

#Macro #FedWatch #ECB #SNB #ISM #RatesOutlook

Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: JGB auction / Swiss GDP & sight deposits / BOE, ECB & Fed speak / Buba report /US NAHB The data calendar is pretty light, apart from the China data dump. On the policy maker front, we get BOE's Mann, who delivered an LSE lecture on UK international exposures last Tuesday.

Her stance is hawkish-conditional: signalled willingness to vote for a hike if inflation expectations and outturns continue to rise into 2027. Kocher is the Austrian National Bank Governor and ECB GC voice on inflation persistence; he tends to align with the hawk wing alongside Nagel.

Bond Selloff Threatens to Knock AI Stock Frenzy Off Course "What would it take to break this rally? Most investors interviewed pointed to the yield on 30-year Treasuries holding sustainably above 5% — the level where it’s already trading."

Investors are fervently chasing the hot rally in tech and AI stocks while widely acknowledging that rising yields threaten to knock equities

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