When Apple unveiled the Apple Watch back in September, Tim Cook cited 200 million iPhones as being Apple Watch compatible.
Based on the last quarter, ~75 million iPhones sold, the first raft of 6/6 Plus sold prior to that quarter, and however many they've sold since...
We get to what I'm expecting to hear; circa or even north of 300 million Apple Watch compatible iPhones already in the wild.
Considering the hype, I don't think this is meant to be a single percentage of iPhone install base device. This is a healthy double digit percentage of iPhone install base device.
From the above two assumptions, I think all these high prices that have been doing the rounds are way off.
I'd be pleasantly surprised if the 38mm and 42mm came in at the same price points. But, I doubt it, probably a $50 to $80 difference between the two
Capacity wise, because it stores music, I'm expecting this to be explicitly mentioned. Having two different capacities makes sense from an upsell perspective. But, because this is v1 and storing music on Apple Watch is just one of the use cases, I'm not expecting three capacities.
Maybe an 8GB and 16GB, or an 8/16GB and 32GB, not expecting to see a 64GB.
Now, when it comes to the space grey options of Apple Watch Sport and Apple Watch... while they could put a premium on space grey, my guess is that they won't.
Why? Because of the iPhone it pairs with, space grey doesn't cost more than silver or gold.
Around $50 for the sport band. two to three price points for the leather options.
I'm guessing the metallic bands won't be available separately, because, upsell.
When it comes to the steel pricing, my guess is based on the following:
Apart from my first iPhone, which was the 3GS, every other iOS device I purchased was on launch day. I've been an iPad user from day one.
Bearing this in mind, I would not pay twice the price of the Apple Watch Sport to buy a Apple Watch in space grey, and that's including the link band/bracelet.
Which is why, I think that is as much as the market will bear; double the price of the Apple Watch Sport.
No offence to @gruber, but the idea that they'll be well over a grand and hundreds of dollars difference between steel/link and space grey steel/link sounds nuts. In fact, I think his prices are way off both on steel and gold.
Don't really care about the Edition, but, assuming that Apple wants to sell a significant number of them... I'm thinking the entry level SKU would land between $1.5 to $2.5K. But, because it's gold - which I'm not in to, and the fashion element, they could put any price on it, and I won't bat an eye.
The Apple watch isn't an Omega, it's a healthy double digit percentage of iPhone user install base business. And I'm expecting a yearly refresh cycle.
A large part of the user base doesn't even wear a watch, so, it isn't that you're convincing them to buy their first Omega, you need to convince them to wear a watch.
And because it pairs with iPhone, having price gaps that are more than the price of a maximum capacity iPhone, doesn't make any sense to me,
Ultimately, despite all the fixation throughout the industry on price. For me, the star of the show is the Apple Watch itself, and the role it's going to play in the ecosystem going forward.
I've been waiting for Apple to introduce a smart watch since before Steve Jobs made that comment about the iPod nano. And now it's finally happening.
I could be wrong about all of the above, but, when it comes down to it, there is only one thing I'm really hoping; they don't screw this up because they get the prices wrong.
Time to Watch the show...