Pawlenty Post

We're following every aspect of the Pawlenty Presidential campaign until it's over. Or until we fall asleep.

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Pawlenty: 'President Obama Is Inept'

The Pawlenty campaign released this statement, following Friday's S&P announcement downgrading the U.S. This is a sad moment for the United States, but it's a reflection that our country is in trouble. President Obama is inept when it comes to creating the conditions or job creation and economic growth. It's time for a new direction and a new President.

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Pawlenty: Pay 'Outside Creditors' Before Military If US Defaults

On Friday, Pawlenty said that if a deal can't be reached "outside creditors" should be paid before the military in order to avoid default and make time to debate "structural change" in the budget. "You have to to take away the the false choice between a default to outside creditors and raising the debt ceiling or doing it incorrectly or unwisely," Pawlenty said in an interview on “Political Capital With Al Hunt” airing on Bloomberg Television this weekend. "Of course the outside creditors [should be paid first]...Then the military, and then the rest." Pawlenty has said in the past that he does not support raising the debt ceiling and believes the government can avoid default without raising it.

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Tim Pawlenty Rejects FAMiLY Leader Marriage Pledge

The former Minnesota governor announced his decision in a statement earlier today: I deeply respect, and share, Bob Vander Platts' commitment to promoting the sanctity of marriage, a culture of life, and the core principles of the Family Leader’s Marriage Vow Pledge. However, rather than sign onto the words chosen by others, I prefer to choose my own words, especially seeking to show compassion to those who are in broken families through no fault of their own. I respectfully decline to sign the pledge.

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Pawlenty Tied For Distant Third In Iowa Poll

Tim Pawlenty placed a distant third in a poll commissioned by TheIowaRepublican.com. The poll of 500 likely Iowa caucusgoers, which was released this weekend, placed Michelle Bachmann at 25 percent; Mitt Romney was second as 21. Pawlenty and Herman Cain tied for third with nine percent. Ron Paul's support is at six percent. Newt Gringich trails at four percent, Rick Santorum is at two percent and one percent supported former Utah Gov. John Huntsman. The poll had a 4.4 percent margin of error for each candidate’s numbers.

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How Tim Pawlenty Funded Planned Parenthood

Tim Pawlenty has been telling campaign crowds in recent weeks that he is the "most pro-life candidate running for President." That pro-life stance might come as a surprise to Minnesota voters, who remember Pawlenty as a governor who was pro-life, but in a more pragmatic fashion. In fact, as this Mother Jones piece notes, Pawlenty's stance on reproductive rights pivoted several times during his two terms as governor: Pawlenty's million-dollar boost for women's health clinics including Planned Parenthood isn't the only blemish on his record as a diehard social conservative. Near the end of his second term as governor, Pawlenty backtracked on his previous positions by quietly rejecting federal money for abstinence-only sex education in Minnesota. Instead, the state only funded programs that took a more rounded and proven approach to teaching young people about sex, pregnancy, and sexually transmitted infections. Of course, the bulk of Pawlenty's record on reproductive rights speaks for itself. As governor he signed legislation requiring a 24-hour waiting period for women wanting to get an abortion. And after approving an increase in family planning funding, he later proposed slashing $2 million from the Family Planning Special Projects program. In other words, Pawlenty pivoted like an NBA point guard on key reproductive rights issues throughout his tenure as governor.

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The Republican Party's Race For President, As Seen In Pakistan

If you want a glimpse of how this election season is seen in Pakistan, this article from the Pakistan Observer offers up a scary picture. Headlined "2012 Presidential elections Republican Party expected to win," the article uses the Arabic daily Al-Watan of Saudi Arabia as its main source. The Republican Party is expected to win the 2012 US Presidential elections due to the failure of the economic policies of the incumbent President Barak Obama. According to Arabic daily Al-Watan of Saudi Arabia, three leaders belonging to the Republican Party are challenging Obama including Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Mitchell Bachman. Tim Pawlenty believes that the nation is facing a defining moment. He calls for substantial cuts in government spending as the only viable way out of default. He argues that the Obama administration has created the present economic crisis due to its fiscal indiscipline.

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Pawlenty Believes Term Limits A Good Idea, Except For Him

Tim Pawlenty was in Iowa this week, and the Ames Tribune has a good round-up of some of his comments. I especially enjoyed this dance around whether or not he thinks term limits are a good idea: Questioned by county GOP members, Pawlenty said he was in favor of term limits, but stopped short of saying he would serve only one term as president, as fellow Minnesotan and GOP opponent Michele Bachmann said in an April 2011 interview. “I wouldn’t say it so plainly, because there’s a danger that you’ll be considered a lame duck as soon as the election is over,” he said. “It helps for people to think you’ll be around longer.” So apparently Tim Pawlenty believes in term limits, but just the super secret ones you only agree to in the privacy of your own home.

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A Search Of Pawlenty-Related Domains

Apparently the domain romneypawlenty2012.com was registered on January 24th of this year by a mystery man located in Australia. He also owns the even more improbable pawlentyromny2012.com. The domain pawlentybachmann2012.com was registered in April, though no ownership info is publicly available.

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Pawlenty Apparently Not Dying In Florida

Tim Pawlenty might not be doing well in Florida polls, but his Florida campaign picked up three kep legislative endorsements on Wednesday. The Tampa Tribune reports state Rep. Will Weatherford, along with Reps. Chris Dorworth and Richard Corcoran, decided to support Pawlenty after meeting with him during the former Minnesota governor's quick through the state a few days ago.

Weatherford is line to become Florida speaker of the House, told the Tribune that he expects the Pawlenty campaign still has time to build momentum in Florida: "As time goes on, you’ll see events with larger crowds and more press," Weatherford said. "Right now he’s trying to get face time with opinion leaders and elected officials. He’s blocking and tackling – not running a flashy campaign."

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Pawlenty Aide Apologizes For Calling Michelle Bachmann 'Sexy'

Only hours after Pawlenty's national campaign chairman, Vin Weber, told The Hill how sexy he thinks Bachmann is, he was forced to apologize.

"She's got hometown appeal, she's got ideological appeal, and, I hate to say it, but she's got a little sex appeal too," Weber told The Hill.

Last night, Weber sent out a statement, apologizing:

"I made a mistake that was disrespectful to my friend Congresswoman Bachmann," Weber said. "I've been a Bachmann supporter in her Congressional bids and I apologize. I was not speaking on behalf of Governor Pawlenty's campaign but nevertheless, it was inappropriate and I'm sorry." While the apology has gotten a lot of attention, what Weber's attempt to lower the bar for the Pawlenty campaign's Iowa efforts is what I really found interesting: Vin Weber, a former GOP congressman from Minnesota who is serving as co-chairman of Pawlenty's presidential campaign, said he expected Pawlenty to begin to perform better, but said that Bachmann would be a tough candidate to top in Iowa.

"It's going to be very hard to beat Michele in Iowa. Period," Weber said of both the Iowa caucuses and August's influential straw poll in Ames. The latest poll numbers in Iowa put Pawlenty's support in the six percent range, although his campaign hopes that several new TV ads will help boost that number.

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New Mailer From Pawlenty Quotes Limbaugh

A new mailer targeting Ioaw straw poll voters includes three pull-quotes, one of them from Rush Limbaugh. Politico notes the mailer is the third Pawlenty mailer sent to Iowa voters in recent weeks and the two-page pitch is easily the most expensive to produce: "The Road to Real Change Begins In Iowa," the two-page mailer says, adding, "The Ames Straw Poll. August 13th."

The mailer then has three pull quotes - one from the Wall Street Journal, one from Susan B. Anthony list president Marjorie Dannenfelser on his record on abortion issues in Minnesota, and one from Rush Limbaugh.

"One of the things that frustrates Republicans is that there seems to be this reluctance on the part of everybody in this party to take President Obama on.Governor Pawlenty is qualified and he has the guts, too," reads the quote from Limbaugh, which, according to the mailer, was made on May 23. The important thing to consider about that May 23rd date is that it's two weeks before the N.H. Presidential debate in which Pawlenty famously refused to repeat his attack on Mitt Romney. That msitake has drawn a lot of criticism from Limbaugh, so it's likely a current pull-quote from the radio talker would not be as complimentary.

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Daughter Of Mike Huckabee Joins Pawlenty Campaign

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the daughter of the 2008 presidential candidate and the former political director of his presidential campaign, has signed on to the Pawlenty campaign's efforts in Iowa. She is expected to head up Pawlety's straw poll efforts in the state. She performed the same role in 2008, and Mike Huckabee won that poll. She said in a statement: "I’m delighted to join the Governor and First Lady in Iowa, which holds a special place in my heart … It’s clear to me that Gov. Pawlenty has what it takes to unite the party, unite the country and beat President Obama."

In his own statement, Pawlenty emphasized that Sanders has a "great track record in Iowa and around the country," adding: "We are very excited Sarah is joining our team just as we are hitting our stride in Iowa."

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How Tim Pawlenty Is Like RC Cola

Nate Silver at the NY Times blog "Five Forty Eight" does a nice job of laying out the challenges facing Tim Pawlenty's bid to be the Republican presidential candidate. He notes that at first glance, being perceived as being the centrist candidate in the current field should be an advantage. But it turns out to be more of a liability: The danger for a candidate like this is that he gets overshadowed. Instead of being the consensus choice, he finds himself with very little breathing room. Voters deciding between Mr. Pawlenty and Mr. Perry tend to prefer Mr. Perry, those deciding between Mr. Pawlenty and Mr. Romney tend to prefer Mr. Romney, and so forth.

Put differently, Mr. Pawlenty is not intrinsically well differentiated from his opponents. A lot of voters might find him acceptable — but the types of voters who find him acceptable will also tend to find a lot of other candidates acceptable. Silver argues that given the challenges of his position in the field, Pawlenty's best chance is to brand himself with voters in a way that speaks to them more than any specific position he takes. And for now, Pawlenty is losing that branding battle: The polls are one sign: contrary to what you might read elsewhere, they do have some predictive power, and what’s especially troubling for Mr. Pawlenty is that his numbers have not really improved even has his name recognition has grown to about 60 percent from 40 percent.

The other sign, perhaps just as important, are the fundraising numbers: Mr. Pawlenty brought in just $4.2 million in the most recent quarter, some of which is earmarked for the general election, a paltry sum as compared to other candidates both in this election and in other recent ones. Not only do the fundraising numbers have some predictive power unto themselves, but they also mean that Mr. Pawlenty will have less of a marketing budget as we move forward.

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Pawlenty Campaign Raises Meager $4.2 Million In First Quarter

One of the reasons political strategists follow campaign donation number so closely is that the amount of money a candidate can raise isn't just a reflection of the level of their core support. It's also an indication of how convincing the campaign has been with wooing voters who are independent or on the fence. At some point in the campaign, donation numbers become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more money a candidate raises, the more he and she seems credible and the easier it is to raise more.

Given all of that, the fact that Tim Pawlenty raised a modest $4.2 million in the first quarter isn't good news. Mitt Romney is expected to have raised between $15 and $20 million in the first quarter, not counting a substantial amount of "independent" PAC spending in support of his campaign.

Pawlenty's campaign is suffering not just from a disorganized organization, but some serious stumbles. Pawlenty's debate performance reportedly disheartened a number of key supporters, and there is a general sense among key Republican strategists that Pawlenty may not have the killer instinct required to win out in such a crowded field.

Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant noted in an email sent to reporters that the former Minnesota governor had raised more money than either Mike Huckabee or John McCain had at a similar point in the campaign last time.

"Gov. Pawlenty will report that his campaign has raised about $4.2 million, and begins the third quarter with more available cash-on-hand than the Republicans who won the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary had in July 2007."

The key difference in that comparison is that Huckabee had a dedicated base of supporters and John McCain had support from many long-time national Republican fundraisers. Tim Pawlenty has neither of those to count on.

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The Tim Pawlenty Budget Legacy In Minnesota

The government shutdown in Minnesota could turn out to be a defining moment for the Pawlenty presidential campaign. His experience during the 2005 shutdown gives him a narrative to pitch his story to the Beltway press. The problem is that much of the story Pawlenty has been spinning to reporters is...well, not entirely accurate. Aside from his creative retelling of the events that led to the end of the 2005 shutdown, he's also been emphasizing that he was able to balance the Minnesota budget by pushing back against the Democrats and special interests. He argues that he could do the same thing on a national level, without raising taxes. The problem is that anyone who examines the Pawlenty record while governor of Minnesota will find that his administration employed some creative ways of balancing the budget. They included: * Borrowing over $1 billion from the tobacco settlement – money designated for health care. * Taking over $2 billion from the federal stimulus funds. * Borrowing over $1.4 billion from K-12 education funding. * Borrowing over $400 million from the Healthcare Access Fund for low-income families. * Accelerating tax payments. * Delaying bill payments. * Engaging in accounting shifts.

Even worse, much of this happened before the recession fully kicked in around 2007. His decisions led to a multi-billion budget hole and a state bond rating that was decreased by Moody's. Other than that, his budget ideas worked perfectly.

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Why Pawlenty Probably Shouldn't Talk Too Much About His Role In 2005 Government Shutdown

As a government shutdown looms closer in Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty has begun to emphasize his role in the 2005 government shutdown that furloughed 9,000 state workers for eight days. "I wasn't afraid to stand toe-to-toe with the Democrats and force them to the table and I would take the same approach in Washington," he said in several recent Iowa stump speeches. That argument is a bit less impressive here in Minnesota, where many people still remember that the 2005 shutdown ended after then-governor Pawlenty agreed to a combination of higher property taxes and fees on cigarettes as a way to bridge the financial gap. It's also worth noting that even at the time of the shutdown, Pawlenty was speaking out against the possibility of closing down any part of the state government. In a June 28th, 2005 interview with AP, the then-governor had this to say: Minnesotans need to hear about and understand the real human impacts if state government shuts down. State parks will close, rest areas will be boarded up, and new drivers licenses won’t be issued. More than 15,000 state employees — hardworking, dedicated people — will essentially be locked out of their jobs.

Anyone who considers the negative impacts of a shutdown should see it as a reason to seriously get back to the negotiating table.

UPDATE: The 2011 government shutdown in Minnesota has taken place. According to Gov. Dayton's office, the final GOP offer included provisions for an abortion ban, human cloning ban, Photo ID and redistricting.

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Reaction To Pawlenty's Florida Fundraising Trip: 'He's Not A Frontrunner. I'm Sure He Won't Be'

Tim Pawlenty spent time in Florida on Thursday, attending a series of private and low-profile meetings with possible supporters and fundraisers. The Miami Herald's Naked Politics blog reports that Pawlenty was well-received, but given his low profile in the state (the most recent poll has him in low single digits), some legislators wondered why he didn't spend more time at public events: The lawmakers who spoke to The Miami Herald after meeting Pawlenty gave positive reviews, but said they weren’t ready to give endorsements because they wanted to meet all the candidates.

Some wondered why Pawlenty, Minnesota’s governor from 2003-2011, didn’t do more to raise his name-identification by publicizing his trip to Florida.

“He’s got to obviously make a splash going forward, but if he could pull it off he’d make a great candidate for president,” said Hialeah Republican state Rep. Eddy Gonzalez. “He’s not a frontrunner. I’m sure he won’t be. He could be a possible president and hopefully a good one. He’s a decent, honest man.”