POLITICAL STUFF!!!

We’re pollsters and we like data. Here’s political info on public opinion, demographics, elections analysis, some relevant stats, and a smattering of photos.

[polistats]

GOTV! Posters created by designers around the country for the AIGA Get Out the Vote 2008 campaign.

[ilovecharts]

The Most Important Chart In American Politics

[ilovecharts]

Do We Exaggerate Our Political Differences?

[ilovecharts]

A Map of Sloth

[wateringgoodseeds]

The effect of GOTV efforts is sizable, worth millions of votes. Overall, in swing states targeted by both campaigns, the raw vote decreased by only 0.22 percent. In other states, it fell by 4.34 percent. (The outlier in this latter group: Utah, up 6.12 percent for the first election with a Mormon candidate.* *Not counting Joseph Smith’s first campaign.

from Weigel by David Weigel (via shiracoffee)

[upwithsteve]

House Republicans released a list this week of proposed chairmen for 19 of the 21 House committees in the next Congress, and all of the positions went to white men. If that seems surprising, it shouldn’t: the percentage of House Republicans who are white men will actually increase after the most recent election, from 86 percent to 88 percent.

By contrast, white men will be a minority in the Democratic House caucus for the first time in history, falling from 53 percent of the caucus to 46 percent. Women will make up nearly 30 percent of the Democratic House caucus, compared to about nine percent for Republicans, and Latinos will comprise 12 percent of the Democratic caucus, compared to just two percent for House Republicans.

Update: On Friday House Speaker John Boehner named Rep. Candice Miller (R-MI) chairwoman of the House Administration Committee, making her the first (and so far only) committee chair who isn’t a white man.

[ilovecharts]

via Kurt White

[yoannmichaux]

Worldwide news, world famous series. CNBC-E Ads by Rafineri & Istanbul

[polistats]

Obama won 60 percent of the 18 to 29 year old vote and 52 percent of the 30-40 vote. He won 69 percent of the vote in big cities and 58 percent of the vote in mid-sized cities. He won 93 percent of the black vote and more than 70 percent of both the Asian vote and the Hispanic vote. He won over half of the female vote. And he won 76 percent of the gay, lesbian and bisexual vote.

President Exit Polls (Source NYTimes.com)

[polistats]

What the 2012 election would have looked like without universal suffrage. Or, if ONLY white men voted in 2012. #polistats (via BuzzFeed)

[polistats]

A map of all of the U.S. congressional districts (as of the 113th Congress). To find the district's number, look at the district, compare with the color code at the bottom to get number.

[polistats]

Cartogram of the 2012 Electoral Vote for US President, with each square representing one electoral vote.

[polistats]

Likely Voters in Massachusetts Bellwethers "Gloucester" and "Waltham" Favor Elizabeth Warren for U.S. Senate. 

(A bellwether test is a poll of a small area of a state that closely mirrors statewide voting trends. This model has been used since 2002 and is 95 percent accurate in predicting outcomes but is not designed to predict margin of victory).

In the Massachusetts race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren led Republican Scott Brown in two bellwether areas, the city of Waltham (50 percent to 47 percent) and the town of Gloucester (53 percent to 45 percent). In the last three presidential elections, these two areas had all three U.S. Senate outcomes correct and were close to the statewide vote as well.

Below is a comparison of which U.S. Senate candidate won in Massachusetts statewide and the comparative votes for Waltham and Gloucester:

1996 – Kerry  Statewide: 51 percent  Waltham:    53 percent  Gloucester: 51 percent  2000 – Kennedy  Statewide: 69 percent  Waltham:    69 percent  Gloucester: 71 percent  2004 – No Senate race  2008 – Kerry  Statewide: 64 percent  Waltham:    66 percent  Gloucester: 64 percent  Since 1996, no Republican candidate has won a U.S. Senate seat during a presidential election year in Massachusetts, although Republican Governor Bill Weld came close in 1996, losing to incumbent Democrat John Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent.

[polistats]

Support for Brown and Warren in MA U.S. Senate race among women only from February through October 2012. 

[polistats]

"The first chart, provided by the Center for Responsive Politics, shows that outside spending tilted left in every year from 2000 to 2008, but that in 2010 — in the aftermath of deregulation — the balance skewed decisively to the right. In the current 2011-12 election cycle, it shifted overwhelmingly to the right:"

[polistats]

[polistats]

Latest Suffolk University poll of likely voters in Massachusetts shows all three statewide ballot propositions passing (Source).