Iran–US–Israel War: What Lies Ahead?
the US and Israel just attacked Iran again and the headlines aren't telling you the full story. let me explain why today — february 28, 2026 — is different from every other middle east flareup you've scrolled past.
operation epic fury launched this morning. explosions in tehran. iran is hitting back — striking US bases across qatar, bahrain, UAE, kuwait, saudi arabia, jordan and iraq simultaneously. trump is calling for regime change on live TV. khamenei is reportedly in a bunker. this is not a drill.
—
THE NUCLEAR QUESTION
everyone thinks bombing iran's nuclear sites ends the threat. it doesn't.
before the june 2025 war, iran had ~400kg of uranium enriched to 60% — enough for nine warheads per IAEA. US and israel struck natanz, fordow and isfahan. but the IAEA confirmed the material was NOT destroyed. it stayed buried in the rubble.
since then? iran has been digging. literally. a new facility near natanz — "pickaxe mountain" — is being carved 80–100 meters under hard granite. america's most powerful bunker buster bomb may not even reach it. a new structure over isfahan was spotted in january 2026 with the exact footprint of a centrifuge hall — hidden from satellites on purpose.
every single attack on iran's nuclear program — stuxnet, assassinations, sanctions, airstrikes — has made them more determined, not less. the bomb doesn't disappear. it just goes deeper underground.
—
RUSSIA, CHINA AND NORTH KOREA
the CRINK axis is quietly rearming iran and nobody's talking about it loudly enough.
russia signed a 20-year military deal with iran in jan 2025. in december, $590 million in air defense systems landed in iran. china buys 90% of iran's oil — $29 billion/year in sanctioned crude — through a shadow barter system designed to completely bypass US sanctions. north korea shares iranian shahed drone blueprints with russia, which passes upgraded versions back. it's basically open-source weapons development for the authoritarian world.
none of them went to war FOR iran in june 2025. they won't now. but iran will rebuild faster and go deeper because of them.
—
IS THIS TRUMP'S WAR?
partly. trump killed the 2015 nuclear deal in his first term. iran started violating enrichment limits. he set a 2-month deadline in 2025, talks failed in geneva, and two days later — bombs. a democratic senator called it "a war of choice with no strategic endgame." congress wasn't even consulted.
but the nuclear threat was also real. the IAEA declared iran non-compliant for the first time since 2005. trump chose war over the slow, boring work of diplomacy. will it end when his presidency ends? the active strikes, maybe. the nuclear math? no.
—
WHY IS IRAN HITTING 7 COUNTRIES?
it's a message to gulf states: "hosting american troops makes you a target." iran wants to fracture the US-gulf coalition, force those countries to pressure washington to stop.
it's also "use it or lose it" — iran knows the US is targeting its missile launchers. so it fires them now.
—
TWO FUTURES
if the regime survives — it emerges from the rubble with one obsession: getting the bomb and going deeper. every attack becomes a data point proving they need nuclear deterrence.
if the regime collapses from within — millions are already in the streets after thousands were killed in january crackdowns — the middle east gets completely redrawn. this is trump's actual bet.
history says the regime survives. but the protests today are bigger than 1979.
nobody knows how this ends. but the bombs have never made the bombs go away.