This Observer report gives some clarity to what it calls 'Trump's stopgap deal'.
Donald Trump has said that the US and Iran have signed a deal to end their war and that the Strait of Hormuz will be âcompletely openâ by Friday.
So what? It has taken months of wrangling to reach this point. But there are plenty of reasons to be sceptical, despite Trump styling the agreement as an historic breakthrough. The two sides appear to have agreed on a loose framework that-
defers talks on Iranâs nuclear programme;
remains shrouded in ambiguity; and
is threatened by Israelâs operation in Lebanon.
Whatâs in it? In the past few months, Trump has brandished the threat of total annihilation and squeezed the Iranian economy in an attempt to force concessions out of Tehran. It doesnât appear to have worked. Although the full details of the âmemorandum of understandingâ are not yet public, it reportedly contains a 60-day ceasefire extension, with the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
A reminder: Reopening the strait was on the table when the two sides first met in Islamabad two months ago, and the waterway was open to international shipping before the war.
Details, details. Trump has dressed this up as a victory, claiming on Sunday that he had succeeded where other American presidents have failed and declaring: âShips of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flowâ. In a later post he claimed that tankers are âstarting to moveâ.
There is little evidence of this. The International Transport Workers Federation, which represents thousands of stranded sailors in the Persian Gulf, said the size of the backlog in the Strait of Hormuz means that a return to normality is âweeks, if not months, awayâ â although the deal will ease the pressure the conflict has placed on the global economy.
Mixed messages. Trump claims the strait will reopen âtoll-freeâ. But Iranâs foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, said last week that control of the waterway âwill not return to the pre-war eraâ and mentioned charges for âservices.â
Papering the cracks. The ceasefire extension gives a 60-day window to hash out an agreement on Iranâs nuclear programme. This is âoverly ambitious,â according to Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. He fears this interim deal could become permanent, leaving in place a fragile stopgap that fails to resolve the issues that caused the war in the first place.
Sky blue thinking. Even as vice president JD Vance claimed the deal has the potential to âreshape the Middle East,â Trump persisted in threatening Iran if they donât comply. He told the New York Times that if there is no deal on nuclear, he would either restart military attacks or make the US âthe guardian of the Middle Eastâ in exchange for 20% of the regionâs revenues.
Elephant in the room. The US has dangled sanctions relief if Tehran complies on nuclear. This is a politically explosive subject for Trump, who criticised Obama for transferring $1.7bn to Iran as part of his nuclear deal. This time Tehran claims the US has agreed to release $24bn in frozen assets, which Vance has denied.
Both sides could be right: under the deal, Iran might get access to its unfrozen assets through a line of credit from Qatar.
View from Tehran. Several aspects of the deal appear to favour Iran since it has long refused to address its missile programme or support for proxies. But Iranian hardliners are still unhappy. They want guarantees about sanctions relief, war reparations and their control of Hormuz.
What about Lebanon? Although the deal includes Lebanon and Iran says it can only endure with peace there, Israeli officials insist they will not withdraw their forces.
Whatâs more⊠Several senior Israeli figures have criticised the deal including Ben Gvir, the countryâs hardline national security minister, who said it âdoes not safeguard our securityâ.
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