IDV Analyses, Theories, and Other Nonsense

Creating this due to the chaos on Twitter. Still figuring this all out so will figure this out as I go. Will be using this to post my analyses, theories, and random thoughts regarding IDV lore.

[sirenjose]

Hunter Norton Backstory Trailer Analysis

As a rule, the sons of miners follow the occupation of their fathers. Once Norton’s father died, and his mother also likely dead by then too, he had no other choice but to become a miner if he wanted to survive. Especially with how poor they likely were, Norton’s father (and mother) likely left almost nothing for their son, forcing him to work hard to support himself from a young age.

Based on Norton’s comment about living like a “rat” for 20 years, as he is 28 in the present, Norton’s father potentially died when he was 8 (his mother potentially died before then), leaving him an orphan.

A Mine Regulation Act in 1872 prevented children under the age of 12 from working underground. Until then, he would likely have been kept to surface work, such as:

Sorting and transporting materials

Loading and unloading transports

Assisting with general maintenance and cleaning

Delivering messages

Etc…

An Educational Act in 1870, which applied to England and Wales, made schooling compulsory for boys between the ages of 5 and 10, while an Act in 1872 applying to Scotland made school compulsory for kids between 5 and 13.

Once he reached the age of 12, the Regulation Act in 1872 would continued to limit his work hours, which prevented boys between 12 and 16 from working more than 54 hours in 1 week or 10 hours in 1 day. It also required them to have 8 to 12 hour breaks between “periods of employment” (defined as starting when they leave the surface and ending when they return to the surface).

Once he was old enough, regular miners were expected to work at least 12 hour shifts (though this varied from mine to mine) on weekdays. And we know from Norton’s deduction 2 that he worked longer than any of his coworkers, while his 3rd letter states, as a habit, he enters the mines at least 30 minutes before the others.

Conditions in the mine were hot, musty, and cramped (as mine owners didn’t want to spend extra to make them bigger), increasing the chance of accidents. We can actually see just how narrow the tunnels usually were in the trailer.

Miners also worked in complete darkness except for lighting they had to buy themselves. In fact, they had to buy much of their own equipment.

Unfortunately, wages for miners were incredibly low back then. Miners were paid by the quality of what they produced rather than by the hour, giving owners plenty of ways to reduce how they could pay their miner (including by lying about the quality or rigging the scales).

The average wage of coal miners in the 1880s was somewhere between 3s (s = shillings) and 5s per day, with around 4s being closer to the normal, and 5 only if you were lucky. 4 shillings was about $1.20. Generally though wages varied greatly in different districts. After spending on equipment, food, and rent, they could be left with maybe no more than 1s.

Going back to the trailer, it says “Blasting Agent – Mercury (II) Fulminate”. This is an explosive compound made from mercury, nitric acid, and ethanol. It was commonly used as a primary explosive in percussion caps and detonators during the 19th century. When struck or subjected to a shock, it would rapidly decompose and produce a violent explosion. Its role was to initiate the ignition or detonation of the main explosive charge, such as dynamite.

This is the stuff that we see him pouring into the dynamite.

Continuing, we see Norton smiling at a coin, but then his wrist is crushed by the other miners, who steal it from him, taunting him to try to take it back.

Norton actually smiling at the coin helps show Norton’s desire to get out of poverty, an idea he emphasizes later when he describes poverty as a “curse”.

But as we see in the Famitsu Article, people didn’t understand why he tried so hard. It “intimidated” them. Then in Norton’s 2nd letter as well as in this trailer, we see that he was ridiculed by his coworkers. They didn’t think it was possible for him to achieve such a goal. This is reflected with how essentially, at that time “Englishmen recognized if he is in a certain social grade, he is likely to remain there. He’ll never reach a higher class, and didn’t rebel”. Each class “cheerfully” accepted “the lot which providence has assigned” to them.

Norton was different though. He says in the trailer “I once thought the same” after it talks about sons of miners became miners themselves.

He may have initially accepted the same thing everyone else did, but things likely changed over time, the longer he was forced to live this sort of life.

There’s also a good chance part of his change was from working with people like Benny. He learns from them to improve himself (and hopefully improve his chance at earning more), but he also sees how these old miners are, which emphasizes in his brain he doesn’t want to end up like them. He doesn’t want to end up in hospice or stuck in poverty his whole life like they did, just waiting for the day they die.

Norton worked hard, harder and longer than everyone else, in the hopes eventually this would be enough to improve his life, to make it even slightly close to what most would consider a comfortable life, even if it meant only the basics. But it wasn’t enough. The mine owners were greedy. The other miners were all in it only for themselves. His wages were miniscule, and his daily and weekly expenses pretty great. Especially with how back in that time period, mine owners had ways where they attempted to keep their employees indebted to them, to force them to keep working for them, as well as improve their own personal profits as much as possible.

Norton was surrounded by these sorts of people forced to live in such a cruel environment, watching the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. This is reflected in his 2nd letter where he says “This is simply unfair. The poor find it difficult to lead a comfortable life, while all the rich need to do is wave their banknotes around”. He describes all the pain he’s gone through just at the chance to “climb up” out of poverty before describing “how much effort I put into this” as “ridiculous”.

His hard work is exemplified by his 3rd deduction, which describes how he’s done so well his employers always attempt (but fail) to keep him for longer. He works to learn, to improve his skills, and better himself at the chance at earning more and thus potentially work his way out of poverty faster.

We can also see it during the trailer, with him surrounded by all these books and other things.

This quality of his, where he likes to teach himself, to learn, and to improve himself has been implied at other points by Netease, such as by several of his skins or even from part of other collabs, like B.Duck, which described Norton as “full of curiosity” and “likes learning”. It also described him with a “desire to act at MAX” or “highest level of execution”. This means he’s the type of person to put all his effort into whatever he does.

It just wasn’t enough.

We even see the sort of suffering this life has forced him to endure, as in the trailer it shows him coughing due to the damage his lungs have suffered due to his life as a miner.

Hard work wasn’t enough. This is why he eventually turned to the list of 13 mines he learned from Benny, seeking to instead attempt to escape poverty by finding gold.

As explained by @metalIurgy and @Deskdeas, each of the names on this list are European mines or people.

(Also, there seems to be 15 names total on the list, rather than 13)

Von Donnersmarck: House of Donnersmarck, prominent aristocratic family that originated in the region of Silesia. Owned mines.

Georg Wilhelm: Russian military officer and engineer who specialized in mining

Prince Konstantin: prince of Russia, killed in a mining shaft

Ștefan Procopiu: physicist who researched electricity and magnetism

Friedrich Alfred Krupp: German industrialist, developed Krupp steel manufacturer and arms manufacturing company

Saarbergwerke: mining company that operated in the Saarland region of Germany

Romeria: religious pilgrimage (Spain or spanish speaking countries?)

Petro-pavlivska (''Петро-павлівська''): black coal mine located in the Eastern part of Ukraine

Nova Baňa: silver and gold mining site in central Slovakia.

Swansea Copper: Welsh copper mines

Eramet: French multinational mining and metallurgical company

Ivan Polzunov: Russian engineer known for his contributions to steam engine technology

Wowdcole: ?

(Sorry, I can't read the 15th name crossed out in the top left corner of the list)

We know from Norton’s 5th deduction that he tried and failed to find anything at any of the other 12 mines, leaving him with only Golden Cave left.

Back to the trailer, we see him with a map.

The left side looks like it should be a map of Lakeside and the surrounding area, with Golden Cave being the X at the base of the mountains. Count Barriere is the owner of this land, and also the owner of Golden Cave. The right side should be the representation of a map of the mine itself.

Considering how earlier Norton’s coworkers stole Norton’s coin, it’s possible they essentially tried to do the same thing here. Saw him looking at the map, then took it for themselves. Like how Norton’s 8th deduction includes “you need more helpers”, they may have forced him to take them along, and why they explore it on their own without Norton. Especially with the looks on their faces in that scene not showing they had any good intentions.

(A lot of what I’ll say next is said very well by @Yaboku_samaa)

Norton seems to have set all this up in advance, before they came through the mine.

Next we see Norton’s inner conflict. A conflict between morals and vengeance represented by survivor Norton vs Hunter Norton. His Hunter side manages to win out by telling Norton that this is what they deserve, it’s revenge for all the pain and ridicule he’s been put through, all in silence, all without fighting back. He’s forced to keep a façade. To keep his true feelings hidden if he doesn’t want a penalty or reduction in wages. He’s tired of having to live such a hard life of constant suffering and humiliation and hopelessness, and thus why he had hit his limit and the side represented by his Hunter version won out.

(I’m not going to push the idea too much, but it’s possible Norton may have bipolar disorder. That or DID, especially with how he literally talks to himself in his 2nd letter. Especially as both can form in children or young adults who experience long-term physical or emotional distress or abuse. Causes can include childhood trauma (like neglect, abuse, trauma, losing someone like a parent), stressful life events, genetics, etc…)

This decision is shown during the trailer when Norton says “There are ways to make a change”.

Norton’s 2nd letter does an accurate job of summarizing everything:

“Over the last 20 years, I lived like a rat in the gutter. I spent days under the ground in the dark just so I could earn a minimal living. Scars from the blasts crawled all over my face like maggots. The constant scorn and ridicule... I endured it every time just so I'd get a chance to climb up the ladder. It's ridiculous how much effort I put into this—anyway, I've finally managed to crawl out from the rat hole. I no longer have to pick and pull on the disgusting ash. Those who did nothing but laugh at me deserve to stay underground and be stepped on like maggots forever.”

And the trailer visually showing Norton’s inner conflict matches up very well with how quite clearly Norton in his 2nd letter is arguing with himself. The side represented by Hunter Norton is likely the version talking right now, trying to convince him (the side represented by Survivor Norton) to kill the female, “think about how arrogant she is” and all the money he’d get. The fact he is trying to convince himself shows that Norton doesn’t want to do it, and how he isn’t willing to do anything for money. His hatred for his coworkers for their treatment of him for so long was enough for the side represented by Hunter Norton to convince him to trigger the explosion on them, but that motivation doesn’t exist here. Right now, his less moral side is trying to motivative him with money and thinking about others as “arrogant” and essentially mean, as well as the doubt that she could do something to him.

But that may not be enough to convince him next time to actually do it if he’s given a chance. At Golden Cave, that was his last chance to try to find gold. He’d gone through 12 other mines (and 20 years of pain on top of that) with nothing to show for it. Norton may be very stubborn and determined, but even he was growing so very desperate, which is shown well by Norton’s 5th deduction as well as by the trailer itself. So it makes sense that Norton was mentally not in the right place and vulnerable to the sort of temptation we see him going through in the trailer.

Norton is alone. No family. No money. Suffering from lung problems. Has never been shown kindness and forced to grow up in a very cruel environment. The only thing keeping him moving forward and losing all hope is by focusing on his goal of getting out of poverty and achieving some form of a comfortable life with at least the basic necessities. This is shown very well by Norton’s 4th birthday emote “Savings”, where Norton takes out a single gold coin and thinks about simple worn clothes and a loaf of bread, while the description reads “Endure it, Norton. You’re almost there”.

For years he attempted to push on, but little by little, his coworkers, his employers, his environment, it all chipped away at him until he felt he had no other choice. I believe the trailer does a good job of emphasizing how his main motivation wasn’t greed but desperation, hopelessness, and the pain he was subjected to by his coworkers and everyone. It’s life or death, and this mine is his last chance, and his deep misery that pushes him over the edge, so it’s no wonder he doesn’t care about anyone anymore. He’s always been alone, always had to be the one to look out for himself. No one else could be trusted. They would only take advantage of him or even potentially steal what little he had. Yet even still he hesitated to pull the trigger, which I think says a lot about Norton.

Despite the decision being made, he doesn’t run after he sets off the explosion. He accepts what happens. There’s no way he didn’t know what was going to happen, not with how long he’s worked as a miner, and how much he’s learned in his own time. It could be the side represented by his survivor version sees the scar as punishment for his deeds. It could be he knew if he wanted to get his revenge he had to deal with the potential scars.

But he was here not just for revenge, but for the chance at finding gold. Hunter Norton’s character backstory says the accident brought Norton “Golden Luck” or “a gold rush of fortune”, so it sounds like he did find something.

We do know he at least found the meteorite, which is what he made his magnet from, so this could be what is referred to in Hunter Norton’s backstory.

Along with the above, we could connect whatever his “golden luck” was with Memory’s comment during Time of Reunion, where she says “they seemed to be looking for something other than ore”.

This is repeated during AoM with a newspaper clipping about rumors being false of precious metal ore in the mine.

Considering Golden Cave’s rumor is “despite not a single piece of gold was ever found, Count Barriere still got what he wanted with this land”, these statements should be talking about the same thing.

It’s possible Barriere was after the meteorite, especially as the only things we know that came out of that mine after it collapsed were Norton and the chunks of the meteorite he carried.

There are potential parallels from Lily’s essence, which connects to Golden Cave, and her essence story says “The mine is filled with special phosphorescent ores, which brought wealth to their ancestors but also cursed them with phosphorescent illness”. Considering in the famitsu article it says the magnet aka the meteorite may have been affecting his brain, it’s possible the “phosphorescent ores” is meant to parallel the meteorite.

If that is what Barriere is after, maybe there’s a chance he reached out to Norton afterwards, and he could’ve been the one to offer Norton all that money in exchange for killing some female. Especially when we know Count Barriere has a lot of money based on Lily’s backstory, as he even offered her enough to survive for 2 years and even more via making her the owner of the IOU likely belonging to Orpheus for him buying Oletus Manor.

Anyways, we also know from Norton’s 3rd letter that he “dug his way out through a mountain creek a few dozen meters away from the mine” with only “minor burns”. We also know from the Famitsu Article that people didn’t talk to him, they said a bare minimum then kept a “wide berth”, and considering the very visible scar on his face, it is possible this was the reason they avoided him (they were frightened of him. Like we see at the end of the trailer, it is possible people saw him as a “monster”, especially back then when these sorts of things weren’t treated or seen as kindly as today).

[sirenjose]

Have you made any theories and explanations for the castle zinaida event? I would really like to read about it from your understanding! As well as the recent enlightenment under the stars event! Thank you!

Regarding Castle Zinaida, I have done some analysis of that awhile back (as well as pretty much some thoughts for every T&I event up to Enlightenment Under the Stars):

Post by @sirenjose · 30 images

💬 0  🔁 21  ❤️ 63 · Truth & Inference - Ulliel Laboratory (+ Belostain & Zinaida) Summary and Thoughts · The Ulliel Laboratory is performing

As for the latter part of your request, I see whether I can write up something for it and Pact in the Secret Tunnel (I can't promise how extensive or not they'll be, but I'll see what I can do).

[sirenjose]

I'm curious for the classifications of hunters. I mean: Some are real people and not from hallucinations (Hell Ember & Gamekeeper), some is caused by hallucinations (Smiley and Nightmare) and some are dead people or spiritual beings (Geisha, Naiad, Dream Witch)

There's also something that I've found interesting. Hunter Norton is different from the 'Go Hunting' video because that's from Orpheus hallucination, then Fools Gold came out completely different as it based from Alice perspective. Could this mean the Hunters that is seen under the effects of drugs are different in each participant perspective?

That's exactly what I believe.

I wrote a (long) analysis on some of my thoughts regarding Identity Switches and reasons why they take the forms they do:

Post by @sirenjose · 30 images

💬 2  🔁 10  ❤️ 119 · Thoughts and Theories about "Identity Switches" · This will cover current Identity Switches (up to Hunter Norton/Fool's

In any case, yea, the reason why a hunter like Smiley Face takes the form that he does is dependent on Margaretha.

Her experience (trauma) with Sergei, and her fear of him ends up causing her to merge the image of Weeping Clown and Sergei together. This is caused by the drugs, but triggered whenever Margaretha becomes afriad, especially when Joker does something reminiscent of Sergei (dancing to Sergei's music, Joker threatening to attack reminding Margaretha of Sergei attacking her in the past, not to mention the topic and truth of the tragedy being brought up in that same moment).

In comparison, someone like Mike who wasn't drugged only sees Joker as Joker (Weeping Clown). But, if he had been drugged, he doesn't have the same fear of Sergei that Margaretha does, so there'd be no reason for him to see Joker as Smiley Face, who is based on Sergei as the Smiling Clown. He might've instead saw something relating to his emotional trauma over the tragedy, especially once he knew Joker had been the one to kill Bernard and everyone else. Or instead, he might've hallucinated Margaretha in some monstrous form due to his mistaken belief she was the killer.

Switching to Norton, Orpheus sees Norton in a hulking form, possibly due to Orpheus' desire to protect Alice and his fear that the others will try to kill her and him, but it's nothing exactly unique. Orpheus likely already knew Norton's past, but he wasn't as concerned or as focused on it as Alice was. Especially after he'd taken hydra, his primary concern was Alice, so he just saw Norton as a threat (based on the large body, he likely focused on strength and capability to cause a lot of damage). In comparison, Alice sees Norton as Fool's Gold. Now, Alice is the 1 who'd been investigating everyone who's gone to the manor, including Norton. She had been investigating whether he'd been the cause of the mine collapse. She saw him primarily as a miner and a person of interest in terms of Golden Cave. That's why she sees Norton that way.

Hallucinations are usually different for each person, however I could believe more than 1 person can hallucinate someone with the same appearance. Orpheus we know is Nightmare, however, the only perspective we've technically gotten is from Orpheus so far. I imagine Alice will likely see Orpheus as Nightmare as well. For her, we know she dislikes dark environments and bird sounds. We've also seen Orpheus with what looked like a mask just like the one Nightmare wears. So Alice likely saw that, but her hallucinations caused her to see him as a monstrous bird. Whether or not Alice knows at that time that Orpheus is the boy from her past, from before the tragedy, she does at least know Orphues is a writer, and thus why Nightmare's finger looks like a quill.

Orpheus we can't say for sure what he saw as Orpheus was using hydra to "remember" what happened in the past. We know hydra "reconstructs" memories, which means these "memories" could in fact be false. It's just what he wants to see. And present-day Orpheus seems to have more taken on the belief that he was Alice, considering him being a "detective" (which could be why he saw Nightmare's form). We know Orpheus could never see Nightmare as we know they are the same person.

And speaking of the final game, again, like with Fool's Gold, Alice saw Frederick as Mary due to all her investigations into the Kreiburgs and the smiliarities between Mary de Capet and Marie Antoinette. We have no confirmation of what Orpheus saw, but he likely wanted Alice to be able to hallucinate Frederick in such a form (to scare her and knock Alice out apparently).

The other dead hunters from this will likely not be real participants, and have to either only appear the same way Mary did via Frederick, or they may only be referenced through another's story but not actually make an appearance via a hallucination.

Luchino will also fall into the hallucination category once we see his game. And it's not hard to see why he'd appear as a mutated humanoid lizard, especially if Luchino said anything about his interests or background to the other participants. Though with him (as well as potentially Hastur via Arthur Byers), I could see more than 1 person hallucinating him in this way. So it may be possible to see the same thing, but it really seems to depend on how well the one hallucinating knows about the person they're see as well as what the fears of the person hallucinating are.

I don't know how well I put these thoughts together, but hopefully this helps somewhat.

[sirenjose]

Hello, i would like to know more about Closing Night. Could you please share your Theories? Wirh best wishes, Luke.

Sorry I didn't get around to this sooner. But at least by waiting this long, it gave me a chance to put this all together once we got the extra details from each of their 6th letters.

I tried my best with this, so apologies in advance for any imperfections or mistakes.

Hullabaloo Analysis

Backstories

Of the Hullabaloo cast, Murro Morton is the oldest (45), so we will use him as the starting point for the timeline.

We know Murro’s parents were the original owners of the Hullabaloo circus (Murro’s 4th and 6th letters). They were always working to ensure the circus remained profitable, yet spent none of their time with their own son (“young Murro never experienced love or companionship from his parents”). Due to their lack of time and attention for him, they instead left Murro in the care of his uncle, Bernard.

Sadly, he equally showed no love for the young boy.

“Bernard treated him like one of the circus animals. He didn't even know how to raise a child, he only knew how to train beasts.” “Bernard offered him nothing but cold, barren walls and a broken toy dog.”

Life only got worse after his parents died:

"Later, the boy's parents died in a tragic accident—who knows if it was truly an accident. Anyway, Bernard took over the circus and supposedly locked the boy in a room with nailed-up windows. No one was allowed to speak to him. Every day, Bernard would throw a piece of dry bread through the door, leaving the boy to starve like a wild beast. I could always see him curled up in a corner, trembling, his body covered in bruises and lash marks from whips..."

There appears to have been little love between the brothers. Whether out of a desire for more than he had, or anger from the success of his brother while Bernard worked a less glamourous job, there’s a high probability Bernard caused that “accident”. Especially when you think about how Bernard treats nearly everyone at the circus.

All this seems to have happened by the time Murro was 10 years old (Murro’s deduction 1). Once Bernard took over, he raised Murro to be a wild man. Locking him in a solitary room, starving him, and continuing to abuse him constantly, all while having him ride on a boar through rings of fire for his circus acts.

Bernard’s treatment was purposeful. He cared naught for others, only how he could utilize them for money. The audience wasn’t much better, as: “The more miserable and pitiful he was, the more money the crowd paid”. Murro was the star for a time, but once the audience grew bored of his act, “Bernard had already found new ways to exploit him”.

As I said, Murro wasn’t the only one treated in such a cruel fashion.

The next oldest of the Hullabaloo cast is Violetta (24).

She was found under a seat after a performance by Max, the owner of the “Amazing Cabin”. This was another traveling circus, like Bernard’s, except this functioned more as a freak show. Despite this, Max wasn’t any different from Bernard, as he too took advantage of and abused his actors.

“The man involved was a trafficker named Max, who used a traveling circus as a front to exploit vulnerable individuals—especially those with physical or mental disabilities. He would recruit them and sell them to other circuses, underground black markets, or even darker places.” “…police discovered he had leased a dungeon and found some of the people he had trafficked…”

He had Violetta perform acts regardless of how suitable it was for her. All that mattered was drawing attention to his show, and the audiences enjoyed watching her misery just as they did with Murro.

“He placed Violetta on top of a wine barrel in front of the circus tent. With nowhere to lean, she had to constantly roll around to maintain her balance.” “As Violetta grew older, Max put her in a custom outfit and made her perform on stage. She had to stand, tumble, and crawl, often at the mercy of Max's whims.” “People will pay a hefty price for tickets, even if all they get to see is her crawling awkwardly on the ground with her meatball-like limbs.” “Poster: Only 5 and 3/4 pennies to enter and admire this mysterious creature—a cross between a penguin and a man! Only at Max’s Amazing Cabin!”

Continuing to mirror Bernard and Murro, the audience grew tired of Violetta’s act, so Max instead had her attempt to balance atop balls. This was despite Violetta’s disability, which made it incredibly difficult or impossible for her.

We’re never explicitly told what exactly her disability is, only that she required special joints/body to get around. So, she was either born potentially without limbs, born unable to use them properly, or something similar.

Like Bernard to Murro, Max showed no love for Violetta. The one main difference though is Violetta saw Max as a father figure, even when he denied this.

Deduction 3: Family “You can deny it all you want, but you are still my ‘father’.”

She knew he wasn’t a “good person in the traditional sense”. However, the reason she still loved him in a sense was because “Max is the only one who looks at me the same way he does others” (Violetta’s 1st letter). With everyone else, she disliked how they “looked at me like how they looked at kittens and puppies”. Violetta wants to be treated as an equal, not pitied. She doesn’t want to be viewed as not as “able” as others. She wants to be normal, and she wants to receive love, regardless of whether it comes in a completely honest form, and right now that way is with Max. The only 1 who treated her the same way as everyone else.

“When the novelty of Violetta's act wore off, Max devised a new one: balancing on balls… I couldn't fathom how she could manage…. But Max disagreed at first. He believed that if Violetta were light enough, she could float on the ball like a feather.”

This was why she continued to practice the new trick Max asked of her, and why she continued to want to perform for him despite the audience viewing her as “repulsive” (deduction 5). This was why she was “always strangely happy during each practice”.

“Photo: A girl missing her limbs is falling down once again from a red rubber ball; her body is covered in bruises.” “Max, I'll become your star again; just give me a bit more time to practice.”

Yet, success escapes her no matter the effort she puts in. To make matters worse, Max had been attempting to starve her to try to make the trick work, and she “might not have survived that winter” if not for the other performers bringing her food.

After this, he wanted to have Violetta carry out similar acts as the ones performed by the Will Brothers (Polun): “At the time, a popular performance by triplets born with dwarfism was going on in the city—comical tricks, walking on balls, riding monocycles”. However, this was halted once the “city boycotted comical performances by performers with disabilities”.

Eventually it got to the point (likely not long after the failures with balancing on a ball and comical performances) that Max could find no more use with Violetta. Therefore, he had her sold to Bernard and the Hullabaloo circus.

Deduction 10: Expired You do know all products have an expiration date, don’t you? Photo: Outside, a cage with a human inside is being transported on a carriage. A man wearing a top hat is counting money without looking up.

Before this occurs, Violetta was heard saying “Who stole my performance?!”. My best guess is this is meant to tie to how Barbara says later in that letter (Violetta’s 6th letter) that “Max was planning to make me the main act for the circus in the new year”. This could be the “who” that “stole” Violetta’s performance, while the “performance” refers to being the main act (or being able to perform on stage at all). It could also help explain why it was so important for us to be told that Barbara was the new main act.

There is the issue that the letter refers to this line being said with a “dramatic tone full of exaggerated resentment”, but I believe this is just referring to the fact that Pip (another performer from Max’s circus) is the one who is mimicking Violetta saying this line, rather than Violetta saying these words with “exaggerated” resentment.

So, Violetta may have been the main act before then. Maybe that could tie to how earlier in the letter Pip says “Perhaps that man thought everyone was like Violetta”. Maybe Violetta’s disabilities were much greater (or at least more visible) than the others at the circus, and thus why he might want to turn her into the main attraction, or as her deduction 5 is titled, into a “celebrity”. But this changed once the audience grew bored of her previous act, and when she was unable to succeed at balancing on a ball or any alternatives, Max needed someone else to be the star. Thus, she was taken off as the main “performance”, something she may have had some pride in if the “gift” Violetta refers to receiving from Max in her 1st letter was being the “star”.

This could make sense when looking at how her 1st and 2nd/6th emphasize the importance of the new year. The beginning of the new year may have been when Max would announce who was doing what acts, and thus who the main attraction would be. And with how much Violetta cared about her performances, that could explain why, at the start of her 1st letter, she says “Everyone, no matter how desperate, should be hopeful on the first day of each year”. It would also explain why, in that letter, she was waiting for Max. This could be what she meant when she said she finally knew “what I needed”. I think she was referring to being the “star” of the show. Thus also tying in to how, in her 4th letter, she emphasizes “A new stage will be mine, right?”.

Violetta was unhappy at no longer being able to perform at Max’s circus (possibly as this was close to when he was going to sell her to Hullabaloo). I think the reason Violetta stopped writing “without explanation” after Barbara’s letter was because she was hurt at learning Max replacing Violetta with her friend. That’s why she was unable to respond to Barbara, but Barbara clearly didn’t understand how important this was to Violetta, despite how they all noticed how much work Violetta put into practicing. Despite Barbara being Violetta’s “best friend” at Max’s (though she did comment on Violetta’s “ugly and horrifying limbs of yours, so she wasn’t a very good friend in the first place anyways).

Once she was sold to Hullabaloo, Barabara informs us (Violetta’s 6th letter) that Violetta’s “mobility had improved after her limbs were modified so she could write”. However, it seems Violetta first got her prosthetics before she left Max’s circus, as Barbara in Violetta’s 2nd letter states “Those peculiar joints of yours after your reconstruction would get rusty and painful. They would even make troubling sounds in the middle of the night”. Looking at the context, I believe it was only later that her body was more fully “reconstructed” (into her current one), to allow her to better move around (Barbara: “But at least you get to crawl around now”).

By looking at her relationship chart, we can confirm that it was Tracy who “rescued” Violetta, meaning they must’ve met sometime after Violetta came to Hullabaloo but before the tragedy occurred.

She did get a new stage by joining Hullabaloo, and was still enthusiastic about her performances, considering the rehearsal she wanted to carry out with the others before the tragedy, but we’re not there yet.

Backing up, next is Margaretha Zelle (23), whose real name is Natasha (Natasha from her 1st letter. Hayward is the last name of her aunt and uncle, so her full name may be Natasha Hayward).

We don’t know her full story, as the start of what we know begins with Hastur’s 1st letter, which informs us that she fled “15 years ago” with her Aunt Marjorie and Uncle Eugene to Lakeside village. There’s no info on where they came from or what happened to her parents. The only small additional detail comes from Hastur’s 6th letter. In it, we learn the village was originally a humble, isolated place until 20 years ago when “the refugees arrived – strangers fleeing the fires of war, their lengthy family names easy to identify from the rest of the residents”. So, they likely came from outside of England at least, from some war which could be the reason for the absence of her parents.

Her aunt and uncle “worked hard to stay”, meaning they wanted to ensure they fit in. As this was a fishing village, that might’ve meant becoming fishermen, which Natasha was not enthused at the idea of. She isn’t satisfied with the simple life she’s living, the cheap cotton clothes she’s wearing, or her grievances with her aunt and uncle. Instead, she’s enamored by luxury, fine clothes, jewelry, shopping, and partying. She wants more than what she has, and the way she feels she can get that is through Hullabaloo circus, which eventually visits Lakeside Village, and Sergei, the “handsome smiling clown”.

“That tent seems to harbor everything I want. Fresh flowers, fine clothes, applause...and a handsome smiling clown.”

She continues to spend time with Sergei, who gifts her with a music box that she keeps even when he’s gone. However, Eugene dislikes Sergei, and orders her to stay away from him. When she refuses, and after Sergei asks her to “spend your life with me”, Eugene attempts to lock Margaretha in the house to keep Sergei out, but he still manages his way through an open window.

With Sergei’s convincing, she puts her aunt and uncle to sleep via “Soothing Salt” (sedative) in their borscht, allowing her to escape with him to the circus after changing her name to Natalie. Based on Natasha’s 1st letter, it seems like Sergei wasn’t just responsible for her knocking out her aunt and uncle, he seemed to have also contributed to her dreaming of the “Big City”. It’s becoming clear that he is a very manipulative man, but Margaretha won’t realize what his true personality is until later.

Before then, I want to introduce the rest of the Hullabaloo cast.

From Margaretha, we’re going to Mike (22).

Mike was adopted by Bernard when he was young. From 1 of his birthday questions and the Japanese reference book, we learn Mike was a wandering entertainer before then. Bernard raises him into “the most popular guy in the traveling circus” (he was at least responsible for teaching Mike juggling). From this same deduction (2), we see that Mike himself is the one who wanted to introduce risk (in the form of rocks, nitre, and so on) into his tricks.

Joker (20) is the sad clown of Hullabaloo. We don’t know who his parents were, but they apparently believed him to be a “born circus cash cow”. It’s likely because of them that he ended up at Hullabaloo. And considering his job at the circus in terms of their comment, they likely didn’t view Joker very highly, probably because of the “deformed leg” he was born with (like Violetta’s parents probably were with Violetta and her disability). Joker, who is described as “submissive”, felt he had no choice but to do as was asked and play the part of the fool.

Considering his disability and “crying face” he was born with, this makes me wonder if the reason Joker is so “submissive” has to do with how his parents treated him (aka, not very well). And since his parents are never mentioned again, they probably did this to get rid of him (and for money). It’s likely the latter considering in Joker’s 6th letter it discusses the constant lack of details with his past, and Alice comments “Such individuals often came from backgrounds where family lines were long since severed, either by death or deliberate estrangement”.

Upon joining Hullabaloo, Joker “naturally” became the “weeping” clown. In this role, he “was accustomed to limping on the stage and using his funny face and uncoordinated limbs to make the audience laugh”. A role no different than Murro’s, Violetta’s, and those at Max’s circus. They all had the goal of exchanging their own misery for the audience’s entertainment which profited Bernard.

“Smiley Face trades his own humiliation or his companion’s for the spectator’s joy. This inspires that innermost, dark part of his soul.” “Laughter: Smiley Face tried his best to make the audience laugh but forgot to smile himself.”

I imagine the money Bernard made also went to Mike, since Bernard had adopted him. It might’ve been the reason why Mike could be such a spend thrift in his 6th letter.

“Mike didn't care much about prices. Deville, who sees himself as an honest businessman, had tried to warn Mike—sometimes directly, sometimes with hints—that other sellers were overcharging him. ‘But Mike didn't mind. Old Billy's stuff was purer, Marlon's bottles sealed better, Roger's shop was closer to the circus—Mike always found a reason to go along with it.’”

For a time, Joker was the only clown, as Sergei apparently joined later.

“Joker was once the star of the circus, and his naturally mournful face made him the best weeping clown in the land. But this advantage was threatened when the handsome harlequin Sergi and the beautiful acrobatic starlet Natalie joined the circus.”

With Sergei came Natasha (going by Natalie), who Joker fell in love with. When she joined, she got the role of animal tamer. He wants to be with her, but sees himself as completely inferior to Sergei, and so is unable to express his feelings to her.

Inferiority Complex: Will she... like it? “A female animal tamer is standing before a thin man who is holding a daisy behind his back.” Her “Lover”: They look like...a perfect match. “An intimate photo of the female trainer and the happy Smiley Face at the circus. In the background, a man is crying in the corner.” “Laugh, Smiley Face, laugh! Even if your heart is shattered, even if your love can't be reciprocated.”

Sometime after Natasha joins, we learn in Joker’s 6th letter that Joker caused an incident in order to get his deformed leg amputated. Specifically, what Joker did was impale his leg with “a rusty metal wheel”. This would be Joker’s Ankle Breaker accessory.

“You can tell what happened to Smiley Face's other foot by the spikes all over his body, but Smiley Face has always cherished this companion.”

With that done, he was brought to a physician for treatment (Joker is implied here to not have much money, compared to Mike’s disinterest in prices) with the help of Natasha and Sergei. Bernard simply wanted “conservative treatment” but Joker requested the doctor to instead amputate the limb.

"He must have truly loathed that leg…” “…he was a frequent visitor.” “…the deformity in his leg caused a constant imbalance and undue stress on his joints, making falls during performances all too common. Each fall brought excruciating pain and severe bruising, necessitating painkillers for temporary relief. It seemed the audience derived greater amusement from his suffering, prompting the circus management to demand more of these ‘performances’. After all, ‘some are responsible for the applause, others for the laughter.’ Over time, the torment of physical and mental pain fostered a dependence on cheap painkillers, which in turn exacerbated the very imbalance and fragile nerves they were meant to soothe.”

Natasha initially wanted to stay with Joker but panicked and left upon seeing all the blood. When she and Sergei left, he remained alone at the clinic for 3 days “battling a raging fever from infected wounds”. Bernard was none too happy, as this would lose him money (now that he couldn’t make fun of Joker’s leg to the audience).

Eventually, we discover that Sergei is an alcoholic and has been abusing Natasha for some time. After the two have a “heated argument”, she seeks “refuge” in Joker’s tent.

“Sergi, once the backbone of this circus, he brought numerous joy and laughter onstage. But he was a slave to the bottle offstage.”

Joker finds out the truth at this time, upsetting him enough to confront Sergei, and from Weeping Clown’s deduction 4, we know the two get into a fight.

“A truth discovered by accident is the one that makes one tremble most.” “Diary: Poor Natalie, her back is covered in scars... I need to have a talk with that fiend! He must stop this.” “Revenge: He finally mustered up the courage to swing that punch for her.”

Due to Joker’s confrontation, Sergei learns Natasha had sought out Joker after their argument, enraging him. Somewhere during their fight, Sergei breaks Joker’s prosthetic leg during it.

“A Prosthetic: A prosthetic limb broken in two, with paint peeled off and serious wear and tear at the knee.”

Still wanting more revenge, and to discourage Natasha from running to Joker ever again, Sergei added Mike’s acid to Joker’s makeup. We know from Mike’s 6th letter that this was when Mike “was working on a new act and ordered a batch of stronger acid”. An acid that was of a “much higher concentration”, to the point it was “almost illegal”.

It is unfortunate timing, as this is the stuff Sergei finds and uses against Joker (I imagine the damage wouldn’t have been nearly as serious if Mike hadn’t been testing such strong acid, though if Mike weren’t playing with hazardous material at all, Joker’s face wouldn’t have been corroded at all). Sergei was able to get his hands on it because Mike didn’t secure his materials in a safe location. Instead, he simply kept it in his cabinet. A cabinet we knew wasn’t locked because Murro told Mike in his last letter to him before escaping from Hullabaloo.

Murro had reached the end of his rope with Hullabaloo and decided he wanted out. He’d suffered long enough in this place, and he just wanted away from everyone. He’d never known love or kindness, not from any parental figures and definitely not from the audiences he was subjected to. He’d suffered nearly every day of his 45 years of life. The only source of happiness came from his partner and wild animals. As such, he decided to give up on society and live alone with them.

“After experiencing betrayals and struggles, Murro decided to give up trying to fit into so-called civilized society.” “…the disheveled young man, whose only family had "arranged" him into a cheap yet glittering commodity, riding a wild boar through a flaming hoop, moving toward the center of the spotlight, though his eyes were already hollow, as if his soul had long been shattered by the audience's mocking laughter. He had been raised by whips and hunger, forced to pull a scarred smile to entertain the leering, contemptuous eyes of the crowd. Perhaps, before the stage lights faded, before the world turned its back on him, he too needed a heroic exit.”

The tricky part was Bernard wouldn’t just let him leave willingly, as Murro was still profitable for Bernard. Murro knew he needed assistance and thus reached out to Mike.

“Diary 4: Why do we feel anger, hatred or injustice? People did nothing to me. They ‘watch’ you, Kaspar Hauser, through the whole German. They ‘watched’ us too, the whole world is a huge circus.” “Diary 5: Maybe I should learn from Kaspar Hauser, figure out how to escape. Retreated like a prince, but I need assistance...Bernard won't let me go.”

Murro’s plan was to fake his death in a fire, giving him a “perfect exit worthy of a prince”. The fire was started in the backstage area, which we knew Murro (or Mike) had to have set, as despite the official report blaming a cat, we’re told Bernard hated cats and ensured none were anywhere near the circus.

“The official report claimed that Murro Morton had perished in a fire, ruled as an ‘accident’. A stray cat, it was said, knocked over a bucket of lamp oil, sparking a blaze that consumed the backstage props.” “Because the fire caused no significant financial loss, the ringmaster, Bernard, did not report the incident to the authorities.” “The fire spread quickly, and everyone was scrambling to escape. But Murro suddenly turned and ran into the backstage area to save the props. I've been there—that room was sealed with only one way in and out. When the fire got worse, it consumed everything, and there was no way he could have survived...”

Mike at this time had been paying the investigator Arthur Russell for information on various people. Murro was 1 of them, as we see in Murro’s 1st letter that Mike cancelled this request when Murro faked his death. After the tragedy, we’ll see he also investigated Natasha and Joker. Based on the type of info he seeks from Russell about the latter two, I wonder if Mike, who was close to Murro, wanted to find out more about Murro’s past. Potentially, if he’d allowed Russell to continue working on this investigation, it’s possible he might’ve eventually found out about Murro’s history and ill treatment before Mike came. I doubt this would’ve been the point where he would’ve finally learned just how miserable Hullabaloo really was, but I think it could’ve helped him down that path to reaching that point sooner.

Even without this, Murro does make several comments that should’ve made Mike think, as in his final letter to Mike, he says: “From now on, I can finally be free from this poorly imitated life. I don't have to jump through hoops with my companion day after day just to get some attention. There's no way you'd understand how this feels, but then again, you don't have to. I dare say they won't look that hard for me. After all, no one cares about a toy or ornament they've grown tired of. You and I are different. May you enjoy the stage and Bernard's care for you. The jamboree in a few days is your chance to shine.”

From this, Murro does reference his misery at the circus, but at the same time, Murro does say “there’s no way you’d understand how this feels”. Mike doesn’t think too deep on why Murro wants to leave the circus with enough desperation to want to fake his death. Likely, he just thought that Murro simply didn’t enjoy the stage as much as Mike, and left it as a difference in preferences.

It doesn’t say why Mike wanted Arthur Russell to investigate Murro in the first place. It might’ve been part of the plan to ensure people believed Murro was dead, but I’m not too sure considering all they needed was to start the fire and then be convincing to Bernard and whatever authorities would arrive as a result. This would’ve happened regardless of Mike talking to Arthur in advance. So it feels a bit more likely that Mike’s investigation into Murro was separate from the plan to fake Murro’s death.

Which makes me wonder what led to his initial request to Arthur Russel about Murro. After all his time with Murro, did he finally have some sort of suspicion and want someone to find out? Or was it something else?

Going back to Joker, it seems Sergei’s acid attack against him happened around the same time as or shortly after the incident where Murro faked his death. The damage was so bad that Joker was unable to continue playing his clown role. Instead, Joker’s 2nd letter implies he had to become a woodcutter. Mike did notice afterwards that he’d lost a bottle of strong acid and suspected it as the cause of the damage to Joker’s face, as even Bernard thought it looked more like “corrosions”. Despite this, Mike’s only concern here is that he needs to replace the bottle before Bernard notices its absence. Bernard knew Mike was playing with dangerous materials, so if he knew Mike had lost some, he’d know Mike was at least partially to blame. Bernard has told Mike before he couldn’t use “hazardous” items (he wouldn’t punish Mike as badly as he would the others, but he likely would’ve done something).

Again, Mike appears more focused on himself than on the suffering of those around him. A truth he will be forced to confront at the manor. But for now, he continues to live in his ignorance. Maybe if he had paid more attention or cared a little more, he could’ve attempted to prevent what was to come.

Joker initially didn’t know who put the acid in his makeup, only that it had “ruined his life forever”. However, he learns the truth one night from Sergei himself “in a fit of drunkenness” (Weeping Clown backstory trailer). This finally pushes Joker over the edge. It all came to a head on the day a “jamboree” (Murro’s 2nd letter) was to take place, a day when Natasha and Sergei were to be the “grand finale”.

The day before, Violetta invited everyone to a “rehearsal” but Bernard “forced me out to ‘calm down for a few days’”. Violetta was clearly excited and wanted to do her best, but was rejected by everyone, even the owner, who didn’t even give her the chance to perform that day despite her desire to. Regardless of how disappointed Violetta would’ve been, this did allow her to escape the tragedy that was to occur the next day.

On the day of the carnival, Mike had to leave the circus for a period of time to replace the acid he’d lost earlier. As a result, he was also absent when the tragedy occurred.

Before the chaos would really begin, we know Natasha escaped by jumping into the river according to Moonlit River Park’s backstory.

This same backstory also mentions that Barriere built the park “10 years ago”. As it became more profitable, he opened a haunted house and contracted Hullabaloo to perform there. We don’t know exactly how long it was there before the tragedy, but it does imply the circus went there not too long after visiting Lakeside. They were there for no more than 10 years before the tragedy ended it.

I do wonder if Joker had spoken to her, as the deduction right before he confronts Sergei is a deduction mentioning Natasha had “left”. I don’t think he told her what he was about to do, but it’s possible he at least encouraged her to flee. That or Margaretha fled after another bad argument with Sergei.

Whatever the case, Joker on that day kills Sergei (Joker’s relations chart) and takes his “face”. Whether this was before or during, in the end, Joker massacres everyone at the park that day, including Bernard. From Moonlit River Park’s backstory (as well as the beta version of Smiley Face), we know his weapon of choice was a chainsaw. He killed everyone who worked at the circus as well as the audience that’d come for the show that day, who were unable to escape due to the “locked gates” and “towering walls”.

News of the tragedy destroys Mike upon his return from his shopping trip. From then on, he focuses completely on revenge against the culprit. It is with this in mind that he goes to the mortuary to identify the bodies. From Mike’s 6th letter, we see there were 16 “unclaimed” bodies. These would be the circus staff, as all others would’ve belonged to the audience and have already been claimed by their family. Bernard likely took in at least some orphans and those given away by their parent, which would explain none of them being claimed yet.

1 of the bodies is the “Faceless” referenced in Joker’s 1st letter. Mike seems unconvinced (Hullabaloo’s deduction 1) this “Faceless” is Joker though, as despite looking at the bodies for quite some time, he asks the person handling them if any had a limp. This combines with Joker’s 1st letter, where Arthur tells Mike that the “Faceless” didn’t have Joker’s acid burn before suggesting Sergei could be the Faceless.

"A Page of Names: Almost all are crossed out, save for Natalie and Sergi. There is also a small question mark next to Joker's name."

Mike has Arthur Russell investigate Natasha, who’s changed her name from Natalie to Margaretha Zelle now. Russell is able to locate an actress who “closely resembles” her “except for the hair color” (which she likely changed at the same time as her name).

(Margaretha joining a theater as an actress after the Hullabaloo tragedy sounds quite similar to Kroto joining a different troupe after the incident at Golden Rose Theater.)

From Margaretha’s backstory and her 6th letter, we see she wasn’t exactly earning very much. It states her income has never been “stable” since losing Sergei, as well as describes her as “thinner” (and has been “very ill”, likely in part due to the lack of money).

Speaking of Margaretha, after escaping from the circus and Sergei, she sends a letter to her aunt and uncle, apologizing for running away how she did. However, this letter is labeled as “unclaimed”. We know Eugene and Marjorie are burned alongside Volcker (who’d been investigating the cultists rituals and was allowed to live in her aunt’s and uncle’s house with them) after all 3 are branded “blasphemers” for their “curiosity” (Hastur’s 2nd letter) (Marjorie we know had also attempted to “secretly observe” the sacrifices based on Fiona’s 1st letter). Therefore, by the time of the Hullabaloo tragedy, her aunt and uncle had already been killed. (Unknown whether the whole village had disappeared by this point, but it’s possible.)

Similarly, Mike was also able to track Joker: “a smiling clown passed through here about six months ago. He was neither handsome nor particularly energetic, which led to his dismissal. Physically, he had a noticeable limp, which he claimed was due to a woodworking accident. However, I suspect there might be more to the story. He seemed like a man beset by misfortune” (Hullabaloo deduction 3). Joker confirms this later at the manor as he said he did participate in “some shows” and has worked as a “carpenter”, connecting to the comment about “woodworking”.

Mike continues his investigation for the culprit, to the point one of those he had been working with told him “I have answered many of your questions. If your urgency is as pressing as you say, why not investigate the truth yourself?” (Hullabaloo deduction 6). Considering we know Arthur Russell has worked with Mike, Russell was likely the speaker here too. It could also make sense when remembering Russell is also involved with the Lakeside Village investigation, so he would’ve been quite busy at this time, especially as we know Volcker has already disappeared.

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At the Manor

Eventually, Mike is invited to the manor, the motivation being the photo of Margaretha he was sent. Margaretha herself had headed to the manor to become a “millionaire”. Murro had already wound up there some time after his faked death, while Violetta was offered the chance of performing on a “new stage” after her old employer (Max) “turned her down” (Violetta’s backstory). Violetta, when she learned of the tragedy, likely needed work and hoped Max would accept her back. He did not, but we also learn he was eventually arrested after an attack against him leads to the discovery he was involved with human trafficking, with Max’s performers separating soon after.

When Mike arrives at the manor, he finds Violetta is already there. She shows him the playbill for the show the owner will have them involved in: “Five children go to the park. They arrive excited but leave with long faces...” It goes on to describe the roles of the other children, which are likely the same ones described in Joker’s 4th letter.

“The second child shuts their mouth, a single sound means being found. The third child burns with anxiety, after all, we are family. The fourth child makes a suggestion, the naughty one gets rejection. The fifth child falls unconscious, it must be the sun's accidental malice. Those slow-witted fools fail to realize that the first child has already gone ahead”

After Mike, Margaretha arrives. Her room ends up having what appear to be Vera’s perfume bottles.

The 1st she says smells of “lily of the valley” and is “comforting”, the 2nd she compares to “trees roasting in the sun”, but the last, which has a “damp smell”, she doesn’t like. Lily of the valley was 1 of the ingredients on the drug list, so we know these perfumes are likely actually drugs (which Vera’s Euphoria was either way). Meaning, Margaretha probably shouldn’t use these.

She sprays herself with one of them to help her sleep and ends up having a nightmare involving Sergei. In the morning, she sprays herself with more before running into Mike, who quickly mocks her about how she’s always running away. She tells him to move on “like the rest of us” to which he calls her (and others) “you shameful liars, deserters, you murderers”.

Mike as we can see cannot move past Hullabaloo, nor his anger at whoever caused the tragedy. He’s quick to jump on anyone he sees as suspicious, and right now that’s Margaretha.

When she leaves, Joker enters and gets angry at hearing Mike call her a “charlatan, deserter” and likely about to suggest she may be a murderer too before Joker harshly denies that.

It’s then that Murro appears, informing us the snow will keep everyone at the manor for some time.

Next we see Violetta talking about the massacre, but making it clear she’s very enthusiastic about being able to perform again. Mike snaps at her for talking about the tragedy. Violetta repeatedly apologizes while Murro comforts her.

Murro is clearly 1 of the few people  Mike is almost always nice to.

The scene changes to Margaretha, who sprays herself with more of the perfume when she begins hallucinating again. Upon leaving her room, she finds the others listening to Smiley Face Polka while Joker dances. Everyone stops when Violetta calls Joker Sergei, as does Margaretha before correcting herself. Soon after, she hallucinates both Joker and Violetta as their hunter forms. Murro manages to calm her down though.

At this point, it seems the perfume she’s spraying with may be the Siren’s Song drug, which causes hallucinations (the same drug likely used on Jose’s father and crew before their ship sunk due to everyone hallucinating about monsters).

Murro asks what everyone’s been doing as they eat a meal, which is when we hear Joker mentioning he’s been with various wandering troupes and occasional carpentry jobs to make ends meet, while Margaretha joined a theater company.

They’ve all been attempting a “fresh start”. All except Mike, who is unable to move forward. Like Orpheus in the myth, he can’t stop himself from looking back.

It’s at this point that Mike tells them about another note he found, left by the manor owner. This time, it’s the Lizzie Borden nursery rhyme, the one referenced in Joker’s 4th letter and Hullabaloo’s deduction 8.

“Lizzie Borden took an axe, and gave her mother forty whacks. When she saw what she had done, she gave her father forty-one.” “Lizzie Borden got away—for her crime she did not pay.”

And he uses this opportunity to once again ask about who caused the massacre. He says he wants to find the person who destroyed “our” home. He doesn’t realize yet the only person who saw that place as home was him. A point Margaretha brings up when she says “we all hated that place, Mike Morton. All of us but you”.

When Mike asks Murro and Violetta about the new playbill, neither of them know anything, with Violetta emphasizing “I just want to perform with everyone”. She does inform Mike that she was the first to arrive, after which was Mike, Joker, Margaretha, and then finally Murro.

After Violetta leaves to get ready for the performance, we see her in the greenhouse saying “We will forget everything and gain new life”. We first saw this in Violetta’s 4th letter, which she says was from the nursery rhyme in the letter. Meaning the manor owner was the one to include this (and thus it is relevant to their upcoming “performance”). She is interrupted by a figure in a black cloak, a description we heard earlier when Margaretha said she told everything to the investigators, including seeing a man in black.

We know this is Joker, and this scene ties to Joker’s 3rd letter, which describes Joker luring Violetta away before removing her prosthetics and leaving her to die in the snow. Shortly after this scene, we learn he had brought her out into the forest before sawing off her prosthetic limbs. Murro’s partner luckily managed to find her and help keep her warm until Murro was able to bring her in with Mike’s help to stop her from succumbing to hypothermia.

Margaretha is suspicious of Joker, considering the markings left on Violetta’s limbs, as we heard earlier Joker was the only one who knew how to use a saw.

Murro continues to take care of her, and after some time, she is able to tell him about the man in black. When he tells Mike this, he comments on Margaretha also seeing a man in black going into the large tent before the tragedy. When Mike asks if Murro thinks Margaretha was telling the truth, Murro says “she isn’t a talented actor… At least not in the eyes of most people. And she does not have any reason to lie” (an interesting comment that could have tie to Kroto, and explain why she was given the role of animal tamer).

Murro goes to ask Margaretha and Joker if they’d be willing to participate in the performance to cheer up Violetta. As he does so, he happens to see Margaretha going to talk to Joker. He eavesdrops on their conversation, during which Margaretha seems to agree with Joker in describing the others (or at least just Mike) a “threat” but “it was not my fault”, before asking him why he doesn’t think it was “just a performance”. He compares it to the day of the tragedy, which she says was a disaster. He counters by pointing out she’s free now, but she says it’s only “until Sergi comes back”, which is why she’s come to the manor.

Margaretha doesn’t yet know Sergei is dead.

Before Margaretha leaves Joker’s room, we hear him give her something. This should be the music box from Joker’s 4th letter. In this letter, Joker questions who left the Lizzie Borden nursery rhyme, as he knows it’s a hint meant to point towards Joker being the killer. He also comments on having noticed the perfume in Margaretha’s room and can tell “it’s clearly not something just for woman” and “luckily, she hasn’t noticed yet”. We can combine this with Weeping Clown’s deduction 8 for an explanation: as it mentions the music box “with a faint scent of perfume”. The line after the title for this deduction is “Let us forget the past and start anew”.

While Margaretha is looking at the playbill at night, we see a flashback of Margaretha talking to Joker, where he explains his actions were intended to fulfill the conditions listed in the playbill. After the flashback, Joker comes into Margaretha’s room. This may correspond to Margaretha’s 2nd letter, when she discusses her fear of Mike and asks to meet Joker once everyone’s asleep. While there, after seeing Margaretha holding her head, Joker sees her use the perfume on herself. She says it has a calming effect. Then she turns on the music box. She ends by saying they should finish the show and get out of here.

Like in Margaretha’s 3rd letter, it seems this may be when Margaretha “went back to her old ways, using her beauty and frailty to seek sympathy and protection from others”.

It's at this point Joker puts the black cloak again and, after taking the perfume on the far right (the one that smelled “damp”), lures Violetta from her room to the greenhouse. Violetta sees a vision of herself (happily) appearing on stage (with a body lacking prosthetics), being congratulated, before freezing to death.

She appears to be hallucinating like Margaretha has been, except the symbol underneath the perfume bottle Joker took is the symbol for Mnemosyne/Dionysus. This drug makes a person forget, which makes sense considering Vera created Euphoria for the purpose of making herself forget causing her own sister’s death (Vera wants to be happy, reminiscent of how Violetta looks happy in her final moments).

When the others find her body that morning, Margaretha notices Violetta looks happy, as well as the scent of perfume on her (despite the earlier scene showing the bottle on the far right with the damp smell missing, Margaretha says it smells like trees roasting in the sun, which was the middle bottle). She is quickly suspicious of Joker, as she remembers his comments about fulfilling the conditions of the playbill.

Next, she spots the golden ball Violetta is holding once Joker enters the greenhouse. In it are envelopes with the same trees roasting in the sun smell. A poster also within the envelope tells them the performance will be held 3 days from then, and whoever makes it through midnight will get their wish. Also in the envelope is a card with a keyword on each. For Margaretha, it’s “exit”.

It's interesting we see the use of keywords here, as we know from Jose’s letter that keywords were used in game 5 as well.

It's at this point that Margaretha’s 4th letter occurs. She knows Joker killed Violetta and blames herself for telling him about the perfume. She’s scared she’ll become his next target and tells herself she refuses to let him fool her twice. Also in this letter, she admits her hallucinations are getting worse, which should be due to her frequent applications of the perfume.

The next scene we see is everyone walking into Moonlit River Park for the “performance”. Margaretha is wearing the coat she bought from the pawnshop in her 6th letter. While investigating the park, Mike, Murro, and Margaretha each solve a cipher machine using their keyword, which causes part of a nursery rhyme to play that essentially describes each of them. Joker and Margaretha are told by Mike and Murro the rehearsal was about to begin. When they get to the theater, Mike is pretending to be Sergei, causing Margaretha to get very afraid, but Joker knows this isn’t really Sergei. However, this was a trap set by Mike and Murro, as the only person who would really know Sergei is dead was the one responsible for the massacre (the police believe Sergei to be alive due to a mistake caused by a friend of Mike’s).

Joker gets angry when confronted by Mike, telling him he doesn’t understand, as he still doesn’t realize he is the only one who thought Hullabaloo was home. The rest of them hated it. Mike calls him a liar, but again Joker emphasizes Mike’s lack of understanding. Mike always had so much fun on stage and so didn’t pay enough attention to everything else going on around him. After getting upset at Margaretha, calling her a liar, he says “we… should all die” before going after them with his chainsaw. The hallucinations caused by the perfume make Margaretha see Joker as his hunter form (Smiley Face). She thinks he’s going to attack her, when in fact he’s trying to stop her from jumping into the river and freezing to death. After seeing him turn into Sergei, she refuses to “[go] back” before jumping in, leading to her death.

Mike and Murro appear before Joker’s able to jump into the river after her. Mike decides to give up on revenge, but while they step away to try to find an exit, he escapes to follow after Margaretha, sharing her fate. From here we get Mike’s 3rd and 4th letters. Mike has realized the truth about his Hullabaloo.

“Call me stupid if you want. It took that incident to make me realize that this so-called family of ours is no better than a stinking sewer. Only after tearing apart the veil on it was I able to realize that it was infested with mediocrity, jealousy, and blood. Don't ask me why I'm doing this. As much as I am absolutely disappointed in that place, I still wish to seek the truth. It's more than an end to it for me — it's closure. I've even prepared a grand performance for it — an explosive performance! Bernard was always against it due to safety concerns, but he failed to realize that burning up in a sea of flames is the best ending "Hullabaloo" could ever have!”

Before he enacts his final plan, we see flashbacks of everyone else who suffered at the circus. Sergei saying (maybe to Bernard) about Murro “He belongs with those animals”. Sergei abusing Margaretha. Violetta being rejected and alone. Joker after his face was corroded. And Mike, who “couldn’t face reality” anymore, decided to burn the entire park, and himself, to ashes.

Murro, the only survivor, was torn up inside after losing everyone. He wanted to be a hero but was unable to save anyone. He was alone once more. Now, he “lost his sense of belonging and fell into emptiness” (Murro’s 3rd letter).

Murro’s 4th letter implies he attempted find an escape from the manor through the forest sometime after this but was unsuccessful. Eventually, the participants of the next game arrive. This being William, Servais, Kurt, and Naib, the latter coming to the manor specifically in search of Murro. Murro, according to a page from Murro’s diary Kurt finds (during Kurt’s diary) talks about someone finding him and needing to “stay away from the people in this group”. On the last page, Murro states he needs to leave and would rather “freeze to death in the forest than fall into his hands”.

We learn during Naib’s diary that it was Naib who’d been the one to hide Murro’s diary where it was. Going to Naib’s character relations page, it shows that Naib murdered Murro, so it’s probable that Naib was the man Murro was trying to run from. Naib was after Murro due to a “mission”, likely the same one that made Naib telegram Arthur Russel that he’d found Murro. Arthur Russell had been the one initially tasked by Mike to collect info on Murro until Mike cancelled this request after Murro fakes his death. Naib likely continued the mission, especially after the Hullabaloo tragedy, potentially because he saw Murro as a person of interest if not the potential culprit.

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Character/Personality Analysis

Now, I want to talk a bit more about each character and the type of person they are.

I’m going to go in the same order as we started with, so first up is Murro. Looking at his 3rd letter (while keeping in mind Orpheus is an at least somewhat biased point of view, as he sees things in a generally negative light, compared to Alice who is more neutral/optimistic), Murro’s traits here are listed as “hero complex”, “lacking a sense of belonging”, and “identity crisis”.

For “hero complex”, we can see this easily when looking at how he left Hullabaloo, and then with his actions at the manor. Murro’s 2nd and 6th letters explain his desire for a “perfect exit worthy of a prince” that will make him look like a “legend”. For his plan, he perishes while attempting to save the props after having a fire set backstage. These are the tools the rest of the cast needed to perform their acts and be a star on stage. It was one of the only ways he knew how he could appear to help while making his escape from the circus without putting anyone (besides himself) in any real danger. But the better example is when Murro is at the manor with Mike and the others. He tries to help Violetta whenever someone is being harsh with her and when she nearly died from hypothermia after that 1st attempt. He helped carry her in, warm her up, check on her for anything she might need, and attempt to keep watch over her. Additionally Murro tries to help Mike solve the question of who is the true culprit, even aiding him during the trap they set for Joker.

As we see for his “inclination” in his 3rd letter, Murro is looking for “self-worth”. He doesn’t have a purpose, especially once he successfully escapes from the circus. Murro wanted to get far away from the source of his suffering and all the people that caused it, but what then?

This is where we get into his “lacking a sense of belonging” and “identity crisis”. Murro didn’t feel as if he fit into the rest of the “society”. The only people he knew were those that either hurt him, ignored him, or delighted in his suffering. That’s why he decided to go out into the forest and be with the wild boars. But he still didn’t “fit”. He wasn’t a “wild man”, but neither was he a star of the circus. He didn’t really know who he was either. Murro had always grown up around the circus, when his parents were alive and when he was with Bernard. And he’d just ran away from all of it. There was no one to tell him what to be anymore. So what did that leave him with? Who was “Murro” besides a mirror of Kaspar Hauser?

When Murro arrived at the manor, he found himself surrounded by familiar people once again. He wasn’t alone now. And there were other people there who were hurting and just trying to survive like he was. People who also suffered at the circus (besides Mike) or grew up at the circus like he had.

A hero is someone who helps the helpless, and that’s how he began to find purpose. In comforting Violetta. In assisting Mike with his investigation into the culprit. Murro found a way to be valuable to someone. Being a hero allowed him to do something with his life. It gave him an identity and a “mission”.

Murro was a man who managed to have a kind-heart and friendly personality despite how he’d been treated by everyone nearly all his life. Something I think that qualified him as heroic regardless.

Sadly, not every story has a happy end. Murro failed to stop Joker from finishing off Violetta, he wasn’t around to stop Margaretha from jumping into the river, he was unable to prevent Joker’s escape in order to share Margaretha’s fate, and he was unable to save Mike from himself. To him, heroes didn’t let people fall to despair. Neither did they let people die, especially not their friends. And he was helpless to stop any of it. He tried, he really had, but none of it mattered in the end.

Once again, he was alone. All those he’d ever known were gone, and with them his sense of “belonging”. His purpose was gone, and Murro was unable to stop the feeling of emptiness that flooded him. He could not pull himself out of that hole before meeting his demise.

Considering Murro’s final words in his diary, despite how Naib is labeled as having “murdered” Murro, I think there’s a good chance Murro willing went out to share Violetta’s fate before Naib could do the deed himself. Maybe he thought he could be heroic by trying to die on his own terms before anyone could do it for him.

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Speaking of Violetta, her traits are listed as “marginalized”, “blind kindness”, and “appeasing personality”. Violetta wasn’t born like everyone else, but she didn’t let her disabilities keep her down. She was kind to everyone regardless of how horrible she was treated. She was a tool for profit by those she worked for, and a monster to the audience that watched her. After acquiring prosthetics to help her get around and perform her acts, she was still described as “ugly” and a “freak”, even by the one described as her “best friend” at Max’s circus.

It’s no surprise her life was a challenge, even from the beginning. She was constantly struggling to survive. This I think is why she became someone who wants to please people, as it’s what she had to do all her life. She had to please Max and Bernard to try to keep her job, and she had to please the audience to earn money. She also had to get along with her coworkers, as otherwise they wouldn’t have bothered helping her stay alive when Max tried to starve her.

The other reason for her actions is because Violetta wanted a family. She wants love. She wants to be needed. It's why the 4th clue for her 5th birthday portrait references her “loneliness”. That’s why she works so hard to please Bernard. She herself didn’t care about money, but she knew it made Max happy, and if she could make him happy, she would have value. And if she could be picked for the main act of the new year, that would be proof to herself and everyone that he recognized her worth.

She wants to be seen as no different than anyone else, not pitied. She wants to be seen as more than the sum of her disabilities. That’s why she cared more about Max than her coworkers. Max was the only one who looked at her the same way he did everyone else. That was why she continued to try her hardest for him, even if that meant pain.

But it didn’t last, and the man she viewed as her father sold her to another circus. She goes to view this new place as her new family, but things don’t improve. Violetta enjoyed the stage, but I doubt Bernard would let her take center stage over someone like Mike. Not with how he sent her away to “calm down” after inviting people to a rehearsal, preventing her from being on stage that day, though this did save her from the tragedy.

At the manor, we do see her excitement and enthusiasm at the prospect of being able to perform once again (despite how many times she’s been rejected, so she likely felt this was one of her last chances).

There are a few points of note that give additional detail about her personality.

For starters, she is an extremely apologetic person. She will repeatedly apologize if she thinks she has upset someone. Likely from how she grew up under Max and later Bernard. This is why she tries to insist she’s ready for “rehearsals” and “will not make mistakes again” when at the manor, reminiscent of when Max forced her to balance atop balls after the audience grew bored of her other acts. We know Max was not a caring person. He was a cruel taskmaster that only cared about people in terms of how much money they earned him. It was due to her failures that Max sold her away. Her time at Hullabaloo went no better. She’s been hurt by rejections before and lost her ability to be on stage. She came to the manor for what might be her only chance. She doesn’t want to fail anyone again. She doesn’t want to be hurt again.

She’s also quite meek and isn’t always able to speak up or express her opinions to the others (especially when it comes to Mike).

From here, we can see how hard she’s trying to prove her value as well as just how much she wants to be a performer again, and this time I think it’s for herself, as Max or Bernard are no longer around. I think she genuinely enjoys acting, but she also wants to continue being able to please people, and entertaining an audience is how she can do this. She finds value in being able to make people happy. It’s her “mission”.

But this whole idea further points to Violetta’s lack of self-esteem, similar to Murro. She enjoys performing but also doesn’t seem nearly as confident in her abilities as the others. That’s why she wants to perform again. She needs to see how others receive her to determine how good she is. That’s why she asks Murro “does that not prove my performance was utterly convincing?” despite her the sudden mention of the tragedy not being received well by Mike.

This event also shows us that Violetta can be prone to touching on people’s sensitive points. She kind of does this again later when she calls Joker Sergei, which triggers Margaretha and her hallucinations (Mike reacts to). The reason I believe is Violetta’s lack of social education or experience, considering everyone tends to avoid her due to her appearance. What interactions she does have comes in relation to her performances, and even with her coworkers, her 6th letter implies they weren’t so close as to be overly familiar with her. Besides Barbara who, as we’ve discussed, wasn’t exactly the best.

In any case, Violetta’s end comes after being drugged by Joker. It causes her to see the one thing she’s always wanted. First, she looks “normal”, she’s the same as everyone else. Second, she’s on stage again and able to dance upon it to her heart’s content. Finally, and most importantly, everyone is congratulating her. She’s being recognized for her talent, everyone can see her, and everyone’s happy for her. It’s just sad that this is no better than a dream. It never actually happens, but it does bring Violetta some peace before succumbing to the cold.

She dies holding onto the golden ball, which connects to the red ball from her 5th clue in her 5th birthday portrait, the thing that was her only belonging and her only “companion”. A final source of comfort that helped remind her of her achievements and push back the feelings of loneliness, just like the hallucination does.

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Next is Margaretha. Her key traits are “seeks sympathy” and “convergence of many identities”, while her inclination is “a self-important woman teetering on the edge of fantasy”.

This need for “many identities” stems from a place similar to Martha Behamfil’s. She’s not happy with who she is and wants more than she has. For Martha, she wanted to be able to join the Air Force to fly in the sky as a pilot, not be just a simple housewife. For Margaretha, she’s wants to see the world outside of her tiny village, and experience the luxury she could never with the simple, poor life she had in the isolated village. This could also be potentially be due to how (if she was old enough when they left) she knows Lakeside isn’t her original home. She doesn’t feel like she belongs, and doesn’t want to fit in. Instead, she’d rather go out into the world and find where she that out for herself. She wants the freedom to choose, a freedom she didn’t have when she was under the thumb of her aunt and uncle.

However, she is ignorant to the outside world, but views it with a similar kind of fantasy and wonder as Mike does with Hullabaloo. It’s like a dream come true when she finally goes out on her own, but unfortunately, this isn’t a fairy tale, and the one she sees as her prince should not be trusted. It's a bit sad, but it seems Margaretha herself suspected this to some degree based on her 1st letter.

She knew he was the one that encouraged her to seek the “Big City”, she recognized that as manipulative. She may have only noticed because hindsight is 20/20, but I think she was definitely suspicious of his true personality after what happened with the Soothing Salt. Her uneasiness is explicitly stated in her deductions before she even gives the borscht to her aunt and uncle. She was worried how exactly the Soothing Salt would affect her aunt and uncle, thus why she “wanted to try” it. She admits she didn’t fully trust Sergei, but it was her desire to see more than what she could in that isolated village that convinced her. Once she escapes him though, she admits her immense guilt.

“I wasn't free of worries and hesitance when I left, but the empty promises made by Serge somehow suppressed them. I made my decision not because Serge is trustworthy but because if I don't, I'd perhaps regret it. Ironically, I am now regretting everything that happened since, and I deserve it.

Don't get me wrong, I am not regretting the decision of leaving Lakeside Village, but I deeply regret the way I left. I should've said good-bye as an upright person would. Instead, I chose to sneak out in the dark of night.

If you could forgive all my foolishness in the past, then please reply to this letter.”

It’s sad, but even though we know Eugene and Marjorie were dead by that point, Margaretha didn’t. And without a response, she wouldn’t think they forgave her. She’d think they hated her and wanted nothing to do with her, all the way up to including when she dived into the frozen river.

What’s worse is she says Sergei had been tearing up her letters, meaning she had been trying to reach out to them for awhile time but was prevented by him. By the time she was finally free of him, it was sadly too late.

Unfortunately, we also know even if she had stayed at Lakeside, it wouldn’t have gone much better for her (though at least it would’ve saved her those years of abuse).

Margaretha never needed to be self-reliant before that point. That’s why she reached out to her aunt and uncle first. When that didn’t work, she looked for someone nearby. That someone was Joker. I think Margaretha was seeking respite, but I do wonder if the other reason why she chose Joker was to purposefully spite Sergei. Joker loved Margaretha, and I doubt she was so blind as to not notice. She may have hoped to make Sergei jealous in an attempt to get back at him for the earlier argument that day.

This did cause Sergei to get mad, but Sergei also refused to let her think she had any power in that situation. Sergei likely did attack Joker out of some form of jealousy, but more than that I figure he needed to deal with Joker to show Margaretha that she had nowhere safe to run to. She was stuck with him and only him, and he wouldn’t let her escape.

But Margaretha has always had a desperate kind of courage and has always seized every opportunity presented to her due to her strong motivation. She goes wherever the wind blows, even though her behavior can sometimes be too rash lead her into trouble. Margaretha isn’t afraid of taking chances. She also refuses to let Sergei think he can’t escape him. Even if it meant jumping into a river.

We don’t have the details about how exactly that day went down, but Moonlit River Park’s backstory implies she jumped into the river before the tragedy had begun. Weeping Clown’s backstory implies Sergei was drunk that day, and Sergei is most abusive to Margaretha when he gets drunk. I think she had another argument with Sergei that day, which I think was the last straw for her to convince her she needed to leave, though before she did she saw the black hooded man enter the tent (Joker). Since we know the man in black is Joker, I want to think that means Joker wasn’t the one to encourage her to leave (and Margaretha and Joker never really imply such a thing happened anyways). It’s possible she at least saw the beginning of the tragedy before leaving, but if the backstory says she left before it started, I assume her reason was primarily due to Sergei and she made the decision to do so on her own.

Hullabaloo wasn’t a happy place for her. It wasn’t “home” like Mike saw it. So I don’t think it’s hard to see how she didn’t see anyone there as “family”. They were coworkers at best. She wasn’t attached to them. She is polite enough, but that’s it. She’s only at the manor to ensure she earns the money she needs to ensure her own survival. We don’t see her trying to make friends like how Murro and Mike are, or try to go out of her way to spend time with Violetta. She’s only with Joker as a partnership to reach the end of the game for the chance at the reward and ensure her own survival.

As for Mike, I only think she really started to dislike him after heir first encounter, when he revealed his distrust and utter disdain for her. Courage isn’t a lack of fear, but the ability to act despite it. Margaretha is afraid of Mike, but not so much as to freeze up. She does turn to Joker though, who still loves her even after all this time.

Regarding Joker, I’m not sure there ever was any hint to imply Margaretha loved him how he did her, though she had to have known he liked her. She was more concerned with staying alive, especially now that she’d seen how much Mike hated her. She knew he thought her to be the killer, so she was afraid of him killing her in revenge. So she turned to the 1 person she felt she knew would never turn on her. I think it is safe to say that she did lead him on to some degree. It’s fairly clear to see after reading her letter to Joker (2nd letter).

“Believe me when I say that I'm delighted to see you again!”

“You were so gentle!”

“I know it wasn't what you wanted—I definitely felt the same. We weren't the kind of people who would hurt others...”

“I don't know who else to turn to. You're the only person I could trust!”

“I 'm sure you've noticed it too the way that person looks at us...eyes full of disgust, even hatred...I don't want to go through the horrors again. So please, just trust me once more!”

Based on the language used, it’s not hard to see how this would’ve affected Joker considering we know how much Joker loved Margaretha. The question is how intentional it all was. Orpheus himself calls out how Margaretha “went back to her old ways, using her beauty and frailty to seek sympathy and protection from others” upon “recognizing” Joker. He even says she saw him as “a mix of hope, comfort, fear, and guilt”.

Life after she left the circus wasn’t a walk in the park. We know she wasn’t able to earn a “stable” income, wasn’t eating well, and did get sick as a result. She wants to be able to return to her aunt and uncle, but she never got a reply. The guilt over leaving them but seemingly not being forgiven eats away at her, causing her to grow more desperate. Then there’s how, even though she was making do on her own, she wanted to regain that taste of luxury (and stability) she had when she was with Sergei and the circus. That’s why she wants the large monetary reward from the manor owner.

Going back to her guilt over her aunt and uncle, it’s not hard to see why she’d seek to lean so heavily on Joker in the manor. He is one of the few pillars of support she has left, and she’s just wants to feel like her feet are on solid ground again, especially now that she feels she can never return to Lakeside. She is optimistic that she can make it out on her own, as she does say in her 6th letter “Perhaps, like that hatpin, my own life will find a new beginning”.  However, I think her optimism stemmed from her own confidence as well as the opportunity presented by the reward offered by the manor owner. Encountering the Hullabaloo gang again shakes that optimism, especially due to the fear Mike instills in her and having to remember everything (especially Sergei) that had happened during her time at the circus.

What makes this complicated is Margaretha seems to already suspect Joker to be the culprit, and yet says nothing about her suspicions. She continues to work with Joker to ensure protection from Mike. But she again says nothing after she is able to determine that Joker killed Violetta. It’s not until Mike and Murro spring the trap on Joker that she speaks up.

She hurts Joker deeply when she does, which is multiplied by Mike forcing Joker to admit what he’d done. This causes Joker to break. He says Margaretha is “forever a liar”. Joker also comments on her “performance” being “awkward”. In other words, a bad liar, such that the only one who fell for her lies was the one who was so deeply infatuated with her he didn’t want to consider she didn’t love him back.

This is backed up by an earlier conversation between Mike and Murro. Mike asks Murro if Margaretha is “an honest person”, to which Murro responds “but we all know, Mike, that she isn’t a talented actor… At least not in the eyes of most people”.

Margaretha is a bad liar, and thus she also makes for a bad manipulator, as it isn’t hard for others to see what she’s actually trying to do.

Joker during this scene implies he knew the truth to some degree but went along with her lies because he wanted to believe. The same way Mike wanted to continue to believe Hullabaloo was the happy home that it never in fact was. Both Mike and Murro turn a blind eye to things that could destroy their dream, something that comes back to bite them in the end.

This isn’t Margaretha’s only flaw as, besides being a materialist, she is a bit too addicted to the perfume we know to be a drug. She seeks it out to help “calm” her, but we also see how it causes her to hallucinate Joker as Sergei. It’s quite similar to her reliance on Sergei and Joker, and just like how she’d misplaced her trust in Sergei, this misplaced trust in the perfume leads to her demise. Her end comes in a final refusal to her past with Sergei.

It's a bit interesting though that her end comes by jumping into a freezing river, considering the sacrifices that happened at Lakeside. Not saying this is any relevant at all, but I couldn’t help noticing the parallel (children that were likely sacrificed by throwing them into the lake, Margaretha drowning in the water in an attempt to find her “exit”).

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From Margaretha we go to Mike. The one Orpheus describes as a “naïve seeker of vengeance”. Mike’s inclination is “lost ‘family’ and inability to return to ‘Hullabaloo’”. This is the center of his entire character. Hullabaloo was his home, and the people there were his “family”. The circus was his entire world, one he was unable to live without. Even when he reunites with the survivors of Hullabaloo, he is unable to revel in the happiness he should’ve felt at seeing his “family” again. By that point, he’d been too overcome by sorrow and his desire for vengeance.

Not that he treated all of them as well as he should have if they were truly his “family”.

When we look at the final clue given for Mike’s 5th birthday portrait, it reads: “The crack beneath the shadow that would destroy everything is right behind him. Is he oblivious to it, or is he deliberately ignoring it?”. The shadow that would destroy Hullabaloo, the darkness that lurked beneath. Mike wasn’t oblivious, he just turned a blind eye to it. He knew, but wished to try to remain ignorant. To pretend he couldn’t see. To imagine that everything was alright.

He looked away from the signs of Sergei’s mistreatment of Margaretha. He ignored the brutal way Murro was treated by the man he viewed as his father. Mike did nothing to stop people from mistreating Violetta or assist her in ensuring she could do the 1 thing she loved.

But more importantly, he didn’t stop to consider why Murro would so desperately want to run away. Mike didn’t try to stop Sergei from continuing to hurt Margaretha. Mike didn’t try to argue against Bernard kicking Violetta out for a few days just because she wanted to do a rehearsal. And worst of all, after Joker’s face was corroded by Mike’s own acid, all we see is Mike’s concern over ensuring the bottle gets replaced so Bernard doesn’t blame Mike. He doesn’t comment on Joker’s condition or even seem to care how much pain Joker was in or even any thought of apologizing or addressing what happened at all.

Mike had the ability to do something, but he didn’t. Repeatedly. Even though Mike didn’t do anything “bad” himself, it is the fact that he did nothing that is his problem. A problem that would contribute to the inevitability of the tragedy

Mike is “childish and ignorant” just like Orpheus says in Mike’s 3rd letter. He grew up on the better side of things at the circus because of Bernard, who likely exposed him to not always the best values considering the type of man we know Bernard  was. The circus was a place of fantasy and wonder, and Mike was surrounded by it for nearly his whole life. As such, it’s no surprise Mike possessed a childlike curiosity and naivety, as well as a childlike cruelty. He played with dangerous material to see what he could do with it, even when his father figure discouraged it. He didn’t always consider the consequences, or what might happen if something went wrong. His fun could come at other people’s expense. These traits weren’t helped by Bernard treating him like the star of the circus and the audience only raising his confidence even higher than it already was.

After the tragedy, Mike still has some of the same qualities, but added to the mix now are paranoia, suspicion, anger, and sorrow. At the same time, he’s lost a lot of his earlier childishness due to the trauma combined with the passage of time, though he’s also lost his ability to analyze objectively due to emotional instability.

We see this fairly early on, namely when Violetta mentions the tragedy, which greatly upsets Mike and causes him to lash out at her for bringing it up. But I think this reaction isn’t unreasonable (even though it still was wrong of him to do). Violetta surprised him suddenly with this topic without warning, a topic that was a very sensitive pain point that quickly triggered his anger and trauma. He had been focusing on revenge ever since the tragedy occurred, and this was the sole reason he came to the manor. He lost many of those he held dear, including the man who had adopted him and the only place he ever truly considered home. The topic of the tragedy is still a gaping wound for Mike, but even despite this, we did see him apologize to her later.

His desire for revenge is one of the only things keeping him going, and his primary target is Margaretha. In part this was due to her picture being the one the manor owner used to lure him to the manor. The other reason I believe is because her and Sergei were the newest additions to the circus, the ones who were there for the least amount of time before it all came down. This meant they were the ones Mike most saw as outsiders, the ones who weren’t “family” as much as Joker and Murro were, people who’d been there for many, many years before them. Therefore, the 2 of them were the ones Mike was most willing to consider suspicious.

Margaretha was the only one to have been there that day and manage to survive. Sergei was knocked from his list once Arthur Russell determined the “Faceless” was likely him. Joker had been there too, but it’s possible Mike thought Joker’s leg made him less capable of committing such a massacre. That and Joker was family, like Murro.

But even Orpheus points out Mike’s “quick-wit”. The tragedy destroys Mike, and despite the hit to his ability to rationalize due to his emotions, he is still quite intelligent. Considering how everything we’ve seen emphasizes how much time he spent investigating Margaretha and Joker especially, some part of him had to have suspected Joker.

As we said earlier, Mike deliberately turns a blind eye to the suffering he sees, but we know he has seen it based on near the end of the Hullabaloo event in game. Joker has had his leg amputated, his prosthetic broken, and his face destroyed by acid to the point he lost his job as the sad clown. Mike may not have known the full truth behind each of these events, but he should be able to realize these things could be ample motivations for him to be the culprit. Margaretha was abused, but Joker is the only one that knew how to use a saw. If Mike really was spending as long as his letter implies looking at the bodies, you’d think he would’ve noticed the types of wounds the dead bore, just like how the clean cuts on Violetta’s prosthetics made Margaretha suspicious.

(Unless, like in the live action trailer, Mike was only looking at the feet of each body, but still.)

Mike may have only learned this fact about Joker being able to use the chainsaw once he was at the manor, but that still should’ve meant he should’ve been able to start piecing this together much earlier than he did (only after Violetta dies, and definitely after his trap for Joker).

Honestly, I still think it came down to Joker being “family” while Margaretha and Sergei weren’t. It took Mike quite a while before he could finally accept the idea his home was destroyed by the very people he considered to be his “family”. It’s possible he could’ve used Margaretha being abused as enough “motivation” to lead her to murder, but while they’re at the manor, he doesn’t really mention this kind idea. Margaretha and Joker are the ones who have to drive into his head the fact that Hullabaloo was a place of suffering for all of them, except Mike. Mike didn’t even want to accept anything bad was happening until right before the end.

By the end, after confronting Margaretha, Joker, and the truth of Hullabaloo, Mike’s anger, paranoia, and desire for revenge vanish. Which until then had held back the despair, despair that now had nothing to stop it from consuming him. That and immense guilt. He had to have known finally that his own inaction and desire to ignore anything that would risk ruining the peaceful, happy image of Hullabaloo in his mind had contributed to where he was now. If he’d just stepped in at some point, it’s possible he could’ve kept things from getting as bad as they did. He could’ve helped their suffering sooner, and thus maybe kept Joker from falling to his breaking point. But he hadn’t. And there was no second chances. Everything he’d ever believed in his whole life was no more than a faraway memory.

It's sad that he felt he had nothing left, as despite all he thought he’d lost, he wasn’t completely alone. He still had 1 family member left, the 1 he was the closest too. He did admit “my only regret is that I could not travel to the great outdoors with you” in his 4th letter, but the guilt was too much for Mike. He couldn’t find it in himself to attempt to live for the 1 he had left. That to me seems like the saddest part.

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Last is Joker. His traits are listed as “pessimistic”, “inferiority complex”, and “fragile”. We also know he was born with a “mournful face” that made him the “best weeping clown”, parents that saw him as a “cash cow” and clearly didn’t truly love him as parents should, and a deformed leg that brought him constant pain.

This leg led to him frequently falling during performances, causing him “excruciating pain and severe bruising” to the point of requiring painkillers. But he required them so often that it “exacerbated the very imbalance and fragile nerves they were meant to soothe”. This was why he eventually decided to be parted from his own leg. This already gives us quite the inside view into Joker’s mental state if he was willing to amputate his own limb when it wasn’t required. It doesn’t help that taking so many pain killers could’ve also led to side effects (which also could’ve negatively affected his mental state even more).

Joker is also described as “submissive”, which would allow him to be taken advantage of by many people. It also meant he would’ve had a hard time speaking up for himself, similar to Violetta, whether to protest his situation or share his feelings with Margaretha.

This is where his “pessimism” and “inferiority complex: come in. He loved Margaretha, but he couldn’t stop from seeing himself as inferior to Sergei (and unworthy of Margaretha), and his pessimism only aided him in believing this idea. And as he is “fragile”, he would’ve been resistant to sharing his feelings for fear of the fallout when he was rejected. But he still wanted to hope and dream. The only thing he had was this love, and so he couldn’t get himself to discard it. Even when he knew she didn’t love him back, no matter how much he tried to ignore this truth. Until he couldn’t lie to himself anymore.

He had no friends or companions, had never been shown love, and experienced suffering every day. All Joker had was his own love for Margaretha and his job at Hullabaloo. The latter he would later find out to be Sergei, the same man who stood in the way of him being with Margaretha. Sergei, the man who also happened to be hurting the only other thing he cared about. His fragile mental state had been pushed over the edge, and there would be no going back from here. He refused to go back to how he used to be. So he took what he lacked from the one that had what he wanted, and replaced the face he’d lost with the one who’d taken it from him.

Joker didn’t want to be “sad” anymore, he wanted the permanent smile of the happy clown. He became more like Sergei once he had it. He didn’t have to submit to anyone anymore. Now, Joker needed to be in control. But taking on aspects of Sergei also meant, now that he’d already crossed the line once, he found himself turning to violence more frequently.

A need for control and a willingness to commit violence. These 2 things would be the catalyst that would lead to the downfall of the entire Hullabaloo group.

Once Joker was at the manor, he couldn’t help hoping this 2nd chance with Margaretha would finally give him what he wanted. So he sought to keep things as close to the playbill as he could, as that seemed to him to be the only way they’d be allowed to leave. This though was what led to the truth coming out about him being the killer, as well as to the end of his hope of being with the one he loved.

By then, there was nothing to hold him back. He let out everything he’d been holding in, to the one who couldn’t comprehend what he’d been through, and to the one who’d given him false hope since the beginning. The person he'd obsessed over for so long, who’d given his life meaning, had cheated on him twice. It drove him mad, enough to pull out the chainsaw and threaten to repeat the tragedy again. But despite his anger, he still couldn’t make himself hurt her.

Once he’d completely lost her, I think he was consumed by despair the same way Mike had been. He just chose to end things a different than Mike had.

Margaretha was the person he trusted the most, the person he loved the most, the person he gave everything to. She had betrayed him. And yet, he still chose to jump into the river after her. She was his lifeline, and without her, there was nothing left in this world to keep him from following her to share her fate.

[sirenjose]

Analysis of Evelyn Mora (+ Martha, Miles, Michiko, and Jose)

Also includes some analysis of Alice, Margie, and Sam.

This thing started as an analysis of Evelyn's letter. And per usual, I ended up adding quite a bit more to it.

Evelyn Mora & Margaretha Hari

What we know about Mrs. Darragh before becoming Evelyn’s tutor is that she “[runs] a club” and attends the [3rd] charity event each month” at the orphanage Evelyn lives at in order to find “candidates”. Mrs. Darragh apparently preferred “quiet but intelligent children”, and despite being the “frailest among them”, Mrs. Darragh selects Evelyn.

The author of Evelyn’s letter describes her as (initially) “youthful, impetuous, sometimes awkward”, but also “clever”, “docile”, and “[beautiful]”, while possessing an “incredible memory and an innate talent for performance”. Whether out of self-preservation (her trying to secure an extra piece of bread) or for a way out of the orphanage (draw another glance from a patron), Evelyn looked forward to her meetings with Mrs. Darragh: “if I make it from the hall to the western corridor in 3 minutes, I might just ‘bump into’ her admiring the water lilies there”. Mrs. Darragh gauged Evelyn during these meetings, until eventually deciding to adopt and train the girl to become a “Faro Lady”.

In the 18th century, women who engaged in gambling (an activity at the time viewed as only for aristocratic men) were at risk of being outcast from society if caught. This didn’t stop the most eager from getting involved though. One of the most notable groups of female gamblers from this time were the “Faro Ladies”, a group of women who ran private gambling dens out of their own homes, socialized, discussed politics, and spent their recreational time playing cards. The most infamous of the group were Lady Sarah Archer, Albinia Hobart (Lady Buckinghamshire), and Lady Elizabeth Luttrell. For this perceived breach of the social order, these Faro Ladies were scolded in the newspapers and condemned by the press for gambling and leading double lives as “respectable” citizens by day and “rabble-rousing” gamblers by night. Eventually, the ladies were charged a £200 fine for running a table, and £50 for participating (somewhere around £31,000 and £8,000 respectively in today’s money, or somewhere around $40,000 and $10,000).

1 of the games they played was “Faro”, which was similar to roulette. It was also spelled ‘Pharo’ or ‘Pharaoh’, derived from French playing cards whose backs sometimes bore the likeness of an Egyptian ruler. Some early Faro cards also displayed a portrait of a Bengal tiger, inspiring terms such as ‘bucking the tiger’ or ‘twisting the tiger’s tail’ to describe playing the game. It was eventually overtaken in popularity by poker at the end of the 19th century.

It was a simple game. The dealer acted as banker and either set out 13 cards of 1 suit on the table (usually spades, but suits didn’t matter in this game) or used a cloth or board with the image of 13 cards of 1 suit, upon which bets would be placed. An employee of the banker (or anyone not playing) would act as “case-keeper” to keep track of each card as it is revealed.

The dealer draws the top card, shows it to the players, then sets it off to the side. After this, 2 cards are dealt per turn from a standard deck of 52. 1 card was the winner, while the other was the loser. The goal of the game for players was to predict which card will win. Cards, as they were discarded, were displayed to the side, so you know which have already been played (making it clear this game is susceptible to card counting). Players that placed their bets on a losing card lose their bet, while Players that did the same for winning cards win their bet (as well as whatever was lost by the others).

Additionally, players can “short” bets (bet that a card will be the losing card) using their penny. There are also special bets with the banker without using chips. Betting High meant the player bet the winning card will be higher value than the losing card. Betting Low meant the losing card was higher than the winning card. If both cards are the same value, the banker takes half the bet from any player betting on that card.

Faro lost popularity in part because it was hard for bankers to make a profit (if not lose everything) while playing. High-rolling gamblers liked the easy odds of faro, while others enjoyed the quick action.

There were also plenty of opportunities for cheating (which could lead to gunfights if caught). In gambling, people can cheat via sleight of hand, distractions to change bets, card manipulation, rigged decks, or dealing boxes to know which card was next. Other techniques included bottom dealing (dealing from the bottom of the deck), false shuffling (making it appear as though the cards are being mixed while keeping them in a desired order), and palming (hiding cards in the hand to be switched in later). “Quick wit” and the ability to talk one’s way out of trouble if caught red-handed was equally important.

Over time, Evelyn masters “the art of achieving her ends through engaging in conversations, charm, and some special ‘tricks’, albeit at the cost of losing her sense of smell and taste” (Evelyn’s backstory). What is meant by losing her sense of smell and taste is given no additional details, other than the wording may imply her “tricks” (aka cheating) are what led to their loss.  Her aromatherapy cane is stated (in the design notes) to emit a special fragrance, something that can affect a person’s sense of smell. Maybe it was something she was able to use against others but caused her to lose her sense of smell over time. Or maybe she had to lose it to utilize that fragrance as a trick against others (to avoid being affected by it herself).

Evelyn’s success is clear as she becomes the “center of attention in social circles” (Evelyn’s deduction 2) and receives gifts from various gentlemen. Mrs. Darragh compensated Evelyn for this by providing her a life of luxury and serving as her “mentor and friend”. This lasts for at least 10 years, but trouble builds during that time from Mrs. Darragh’s “outstanding debts” due to “inclusion of expensive ‘ingredients’ such as Bellona in your order, we cannot guarantee a stable supply in the future” (deduction 3).

All it says is that “bellona” is “expensive”. The fact it has “ingredients” in quotes implies that isn’t what it actually is. The Japanese and Chinese versions use a word (“香料”) that seems like it can mean either spice or perfume/fragrance. Was it something for Vilhelm’s organization (as we know he’s involved in experimentation) or for herself? As the deduction references “greed” and “self-restraint”, I’m leaning towards the latter. Even if not for Vilhelm, it could still be a drug, or something addictive that she couldn’t do without. Or maybe it was whatever ingredients Evelyn needed for her “tricks” (via the aromatherapy cane). Or it’s something that helped Mrs. Darragh with her illness.

Whatever it was, this leads to the conflict between Mrs. Darragh and the debtor in Evelyn’s trailer.

Evelyn, seeing the fight and worried about her adopted mother’s safety, shoots the debtor, killing him and leading to a warrant for her arrest.

Evelyn goes on the run for a time until she learns her adopted mother is afflicted with a fatal illness: consumption, aka Tuberculosis. The author of Evelyn’s letter states “consumption is not an ailment that may be delayed indefinitely”. This could imply she has been trying to delay it, which could back up the idea this is what the “ingredients” were for.

This same author explains “the gentleman has no intention of rescuing her, at least not at present. The adversity she now faces will only further temper her loyalty”. When combined with Evelyn’s deduction 4 (“traps are always disguised as opportunities”), Vilhelm (the “gentleman”) may have some hand in planning this situation in order to acquire her for his organization. He’s likely the reason Evelyn learned of her adopted mother’s illness. And in return for her training more “Faro Ladies” for him, he’d provide Mrs. Darragh medical treatment. And Vilhelm would be using them for more than just funding considering he describes them as “dangerous blades” for him.

Lastly about Mrs. Darragh, the author talks to her about how her mentor spent “an entire year retrieving her poor successor from the farthest reaches of the world”. This implies that Mrs. Darragh tried to flee from the organization but was eventually found and brought back despite her attempts. This could relate to the author’s other comment: “I cannot imagine what cause you could have for regret”. This is said when referencing Mrs. Darragh adopting and training Evelyn. Maybe this “regret” is her inability to keep Evelyn from the organization, and thus causing Evelyn to go through the same experience she did.

Evelyn, to avoid the “gallows” and help her adopted mother, takes the deal and begins training others. Her deductions mention “4 young ladies of similar build stand facing the camera, wearing knee-length coats and bowler hats that conceal their faces from view”. 1 of these 4 is Margaretha Hari, who is described in Evelyn’s deduction 7: “a woman in her early twenties with her hair tied in a bun to the side, wearing a loose military uniform that clearly doesn't belong to her”. The uniform combined with the line about “knowledge that goes beyond the bounds of formal education” could mean she got some experience with the military as part of 1 of her disguises (relates well to the real Martha). Evelyn’s backstory states her student had “almost perfectly inherited Evelyn's legacy, especially in the field of disguising herself as a different identity, where her talent surpassed Evelyn's”.

Things are looking well until her tenure is almost at an end. After nearly 9 years, Margaretha Hari runs away from the organization. Evelyn, who just wants to be done with this, is ordered to “handle” (eliminate) Martha before she is allowed to leave. Evelyn’s desire for freedom is similar to Margaretha Hari’s and even her own tutor, Mrs. Darragh. We can see it even in Evelyn’s S-tier, Mark of Prey. The backstory for this essence involves Evelyn being “trapped”, unable to “change their current happenstance” or their “fate” as a “sacrifice”. This is emphasized when it mentions her meeting a “man” leading to “the whisper of the devil would sound in her ear”, representing Vilhelm and his “devil’s” bargain (he’ll save her life and her mentor’s in exchange for her freedom). After this, it even says she tried to “find an exit” but was unable to open the locked doors, which “turned into a cage” she struggled against but “could not escape”.

Evelyn’s final deduction references “first-class tickets” with “New York Harbor” as the destination. To me, I think Evelyn meant for these 2 tickets to be for either her and Mrs. Darragh, or potentially for Evelyn and Margaretha Hari. I say this as it would parallel how Mrs. Darragh wanted to keep Evelyn away from the organization and just live a semi-normal life together. Evelyn may have intended to do the same for Margaretha Hari (if not Mrs. Darragh, but it depends on how much her illness has progressed, or if she’s even still alive). They both wanted freedom from their “cage”, it’s just unfortunate that Margaretha Hari had a different plan on how to achieve this.

Maybe it’s because Evelyn had that semi-normal life Mrs. Darragh was able to provide for Evelyn, while for Margaretha Hari, she never had that. It was only ever the organization. Evelyn wanted the life she had back, while Margaretha Hari doesn’t even know who she is or who she wants to be.

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Alice DeRoss

I do want to bring up Evelyn’s possible connection to Alice though, as we see Alice’s shadow at the end of Evelyn’s trailer. Contributing to this is the fact Alice was adopted by Vilhelm in the past and Alice’s listed “talent” is “disguise”, just like the others in this organization. Then there’s the involvement of who is likely this same organization in Alice’s deductions via the “investigation reports”.  This could further imply that Alice, like Margaretha Hari, had escaped (from both Vilhelm’s experiments and his organization). Alice’s backstory even mirrors the other escapee, as it says she “returned to England under a veil of anonymity, reinventing herself as a social journalist, similar to Margaretha Hari taking on Martha Behamfil’s identity”.

Then there’s both Evelyn’s 1st and Alice’s 2nd letters referencing Cape Town (on the southern tip of Africa).

The author of Evelyn’s letter is located there, and as this author is clearly tied to Vilhelm, it’s possible Cape Town is also connected to Vilhelm and his organization to some degree.  In Alice’s letter, she asks to use the “encrypted telegraph services at the Cape Town Central Telegraph Office” if the “Editor of the Spectrum” agrees to allow her to contribute to their “cold case investigation efforts” as a journalist. She even says she’ll use a “pseudonym” when she publishes her findings. Again, clear similarities to Margaretha Hari.

The other reason Cape Town is curious is because the only other time it’s been brought up was during the trailer for Ashes of Memory. During it, the bee that was used to kill Melly’s husband travels from there to England. Coincidence maybe, but the possibility of a connection is interesting.

1 stupid question I had while thinking about Evelyn and Alice is whether it’s possible both of them came from the same orphanage. There’s no info about Evelyn’s orphanage, but since they both wind up with Vilhelm, I couldn’t help but wonder.

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Jose Baden & Sam Bourbon

The last topic I wanted to discuss about Evelyn’s letter is the fact the letter implies Vilhelm is in Liverpool. The only other time Liverpool’s been mention is in Jose’s backstory. The day Jose’s father and ship vanish, Jose was “delayed in Liverpool”, and we learn in 1 of his birthday questions that the reason was because “he was drunk”. Related to this, we learn in his relations page that Sam is labeled as a “drinking buddy”. For added context about his drinking, a different birthday question informs us that the reason he started drinking was due to “nightmares”. Jose began having nightmares due to the incident in his deduction 3 and 4. Finally, we know Joaquin Baden (Jose’s father) went on this voyage to “perform trades” and obtain certain goods from an area in the Mediterranean Sea.

So, it’s possible something about this voyage caused Jose nightmares the night before they were to set off, leading to him drinking, and when he did so, he was with Sam.

Sam is a curious person to be “drinking buddies” with considering we know he’s involved with drug experimentation with Vilhelm and Orpheus.

We know Sam created Dovlin, which is likely more than just alcohol considering everything else (Demi’s letters referencing samples and tests with mice, Orpheus’ 3rd letter again mentioning samples and the effectiveness/stability of drugs, and Alice’s flashback near the end of Ashes of Memory part 2, where we see him with the symbol for Mnemosyne/Dionysus).

We’ve also seen him experiment on people.

There’s Alice as we just mentioned during the flashback at the end of Ashes of Memory part 2. Then there’s the “observation diaries” from Demi’s deducitons that could imply he was testing something with Demi. But there’s also the possibility he experimented on Joaquin and the crew of the Parthenope.

We know Sam signed the ledger of goods for that voyage, and Sam is sponsored by Vilhelm, the 1 making the trade deal with Joaquin. It’s very possible that the “things” the crew mention seeing during Jose’s 1st letter were caused by the (fittingly named) Siren’s Song drug, with effects labeled as “terror awake, psychedelic”. There’s also a chance that Sam’s experiment with Joaquin and the crew is the  failed experiment with mice referenced in Demi’s 2nd letter.

And it’s not just Joaquin, as Sam may have experimented on Jose too. This idea is based on Jose’s deduction 8, which is literally titled “drugs” and is where Jose’s dad is telling someone he doesn’t care if Jose “remembers how to be a good man” as long as he does his job. We know Sam and Joaquin knew each other due to Sam’s signature on the ledger of goods, and we know Sam and Jose know each other due to being “drinking buddies”, so it’s not too hard to believe Sam is the 1 Joaquin was making the request to.

As “forgetting” is referenced in Jose’s deduction, it’s possible Sam experimented on Jose with Mnemosyne/Dionysus, or potentially with Dovlin. Not that I know quite yet what the effects of Dovlin are, but we do see Demi drinking a considerable amount during her 4th letter, and the way she talks about doing stuff that wasn’t quite “against my true intentions” but also “was not entirely of my own accord”. It may also have affected her memory based on her talking about the memories becoming a nightmare, so maybe this could be used on Jose too. If Dovlin made Demi do stuff she wouldn’t normally, that could be exactly what Joaquin wants to make Jose do his job despite his nightmares.

But Sam we know works for Orpheus, who says he “treasured the opportunity to use [Jose] in the experiment”. So, there’s a very good chance the reason Jose was drinking that day was because of Sam (and he was in Liverpool because that may have been where the Badens got the job request from Vilhelm). Sam knew there was a voyage that day, he signed the ledger, yet didn’t encourage Jose to join it (even if he wanted the crew for another experiment). He probably didn’t want Jose to join that voyage, instead having other intentions for him. Potentially both because Orpheus wanted to use him, but also maybe because Sam wanted to continue working to perfect Dovlin via Jose (especially if Sam is the 2nd author in Wu Chang’s 3rd letter, it would show he was also interested in Jose’s experiment).

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Martha Behamfil & Margaretha Hari

Now from here I’m going back to Margaretha Hari.

Evelyn was told by Vilhelm that she was headed to Oletus Manor. The reason we see is because she was given another identity, “Martha Behamfil”, from Baron DeRoss as well as a promise of safety in exchange for joining his game. The fact Vilhelm knows where she’s headed could indicate he saw their letters. They likely didn’t notice her absence immediately and thus didn’t see the letters until they suspected she’d fled to determine where she went.

In her letter, this “particular business” (Martha’s 1st letter) is the organization, so Vilhelm may be the “gentleman” she referenced. She also reveals she is aware of who Baron DeRoss is and of the tragedy that occurred at the manor, which isn’t a surprise considering what this organization is. An organization that even an “official intelligence agency” (Martha’s 4th letter) had no “relevant information” on.

Martha, a mere “pawn” for others, “yearned to soar”, implying she currently felt shackled to Vilhelm and the organization. Which is why she agreed to Orpheus’ deal.

As for the identity given to her, Martha Behamfil (the real one) doesn’t seem to have been born to a poor family (Martha was taught about maids and arranging finances, and her family was later able to pay for investigators to search for her). Her primary issue is clear from Martha’s 2nd deduction: “Mother told me, Martha you should be complaisant, compassionate and utterly selfless, a house angel. But I don't want that”. To emphasize this point, the title of this is “House Angel”, with the following line being “You’ll be a perfect wife, just like in that poem of Coventry Patmore”.

Coventry Patmore was a poet in the 19th century. The poem being referenced here is “The Angel of the House”. It essentially describes what he felt was the perfect woman (in the Victorian era). Inspired by his 1st wife, it goes in depth into what a man should expect from their wife and how women were to contribute to society. This is clear just from reading the very first lines of the poem: “Man must be pleased; but him to please / Is woman's pleasure”.

It goes on and on like this, without much detail on how the man should love and treat his wife in return. From childhood to adulthood, women were expected to perfect their ability to “please” the man. They weren’t really allowed to be “free” or do what they wanted. The poem even says “yokes her heart to an icicle or whim”, with “icicle” symbolizing the husband. This is quite similar to Martha’s 5th letter describing her like “an eagle shackled to the ground”.

(The poem goes on for quite a bit, but I think this should be enough to get a sense for the poem itself, which would not be viewed as positively as it was back then in the present day).

Martha Behamfil “excelled at riding and shooting as a child and attained the rank of captain after joining the cavalry” (backstory). Her deduction 3 describes her as “wearing the clothes of a cavalry captain, they don’t fit her very well”, which is interesting how this mirrors Hari in Evelyn’s deductions as also wearing an ill-fitting military uniform. This either is meant to show how similar the 2 of them were, that woman weren’t intended to be in the military and thus why both of them got “ill-fitting” uniforms, or maybe Margaretha was already working to imitate Martha Behamfil (we’ll discuss this more later).

Eventually, Martha meets Henry, a glider pilot, who is the likely reason she becomes fascinated with flying as well. Her parents accept him as Martha’s fiancé due to his “position and property”, but she loved him for their shared interest in flying and his acceptance of the type of person Martha wanted to be. Due to her new interest in flying, she leaves the Cavalry to join the Air Force.

Unfortunately for her, “instead of becoming a pilot, as she had dreamt of, Martha became a signaler, a job she performed on the ground” (backstory), which she described as “boring” (deduction 8). Additionally, she mentions she doesn’t like wearing a uniform, which to me reads as again emphasizing how she doesn’t want to be restricted (and the military is very rigid). She “yearns to soar”.

This sadly leads to Henry’s demise. He had been flying on a day the airport was covered in mist. Martha, who should’ve used her flare gun, instead had her “head in the clouds”, causing Henry to die when his glider crashed. I think losing her “other half” (especially when it was at least partially her own fault) was the final straw that pushes her over the edge to run away from her family.

We learn in Martha’s 6th letter that she left on her birthday without telling anyone, leading to her parents reporting her missing. Where she went, we don’t know. All she says is “I refuse to lose my edge under the guise of ‘feminine virtue’, becoming nothing more than a piece of furniture”. It’s possible she went to North America or elsewhere in Europe for a chance at a new life and more freedom. We know she had some money to make this possible based on Martha’s 6th letter revealing Michiko had been funding her. More importantly though is how the letter informs us that Margaretha Hari had already assumed Martha Behamfil’s identity, as she was likely the “Martha” that was spotted boarding a freighter at the Port of Liverpool. The freighter was likely a means of transport as she headed towards the manor as Vilhelm said.

From there, the real Martha Behamfil vanishes, at least from the details we currently have. Since Vilhelm is located in Liverpool, that could mean his organization is also located there, and so this could be around the time Margaretha Hari also “escapes” (just like real Martha Behamfil from her family) after assuming Martha’s identity. But we don’t know this for certain (nothing says the organization and its members are all in 1 place, as we see in Alice’s deductions, different people are likely on different assignments at the same time).

We don’t know exactly how long before fake Martha enters the manor game, but we do know when she’s in the city near the manor, she’s in contact with Miles, who she’s assisting in locating Michiko’s keepsake.

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Michiko & Miles

Miles is a British Army Officer who met Michiko at a banquet while he was in Japan. Michiko grew up in Eversleeping town before becoming the “most famous geisha in the Yoshiwara entertainment district” (Michiko’s backstory), which is where she meets Miles. They fell in love “at first sight” and married before she left with him to his hometown (England). Sadly, Miles’ father did not agree a woman like Michiko should be able to marry into a respectable family like theirs. He refers to her as unpleasant, mocks her, and even tries to kick her out, but Miles stops him.

Eventually, Miles is ordered “by his superior to go on a 6 month business trip to India” (he was an army officer in the 19th century, so it’s not unreasonable to imagine him getting sent there). Due to worrying she’d have difficulty adjusting to India (especially after she had to adjust to England after leaving Japan), he left her at home.

From here we go to Michiko’s 6th letter, where we learn Michiko had been pregnant, but Mr. Donnelly “had colluded with her doctor to conceal the pregnancy”. Before she disappeared, we also learn she had been providing financial support to a girl, aka Martha, through a foundation that “helped women break gender barriers and pursue their careers”. Michiko had been doing this anonymously under the name “The one who gives wings to the caged bird”.

Michiko funding Martha with her own savings draws parallels with Lady Thirteen in Teahouse Tales, where “those without direction in life, those truly at the end of their rope, head to the teahouse to seek salvation, and more often than not, they will receive their financial aid”. In this, the teahouse is both for her own survival as well as to “protect those like her, her compatriots staying abroad, defenseless, while also collecting valuable information to exchange”. This is very similar to what Michiko tells Martha.

Unfortunately, “a week before Miles returned home, Michiko disappeared in the middle of the night in a thick fog” (backstory). In other words, she was killed not long before Miles was to come home, rather than being killed soon after he’d just left for India (not sure why). Mr. Donnelly tells Miles once he returns that Michiko had “eloped with her servant, and that she had also stolen some of his family’s property” before urging him to “[find] another wife”. Miles refuses, instead spending every day he could searching for her.

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Miles Searches for Michiko (Miles, Margaretha Zelle, and Martha)

We know she was killed from Michiko’s last deduction referencing a “body”. And we know who’d want this to happen due to Mr. Donnelly’s clear dislike of her (especially as deduction 9 is titled “grudge”). Michiko’s 1st letter informs us Eugene is also involvement, with the summary for that letter stating “Michiko ‘has been taken care of’”. This implies Eugene was the one directly responsible for killing her and for hiding her body, both under Mr. Donnelly’s orders. This would fit with Michiko’s deductions, where who we now know is Eugene worries if “he” knows anything before referencing the hatpin, and later refences needing to hide the body before hiding “it”. He’s afraid someone will find out what he did and so wants to hide the evidence of his actions.

We know the hatpin was the murder weapon based on Michiko’s deduction 5 emphasizing it being “6 inches long” with a “very sharp tip”. Though Michiko’s 3rd letter says “the end of the hatpin had been sharpened”. This implies someone got their hands on the hatpin while Michiko was alive and then sharpened it in order to be able to kill her with it.  We know Eugene has the hatpin, as this is the “it” he wants to make disappear after dealing with the body. We know the hatpin is this “it” as the previous deduction has Eugene fearing Miles (the “he” in deduction 9) may know the truth because of “that hatpin”. And the only reason he’d worry about this is if he had the hatpin (either nearby or hidden on his person).

If Mr. Donnelly ordered Eugene to kill Michiko for him, that could mean they lived at least somewhat nearby, and therefore Miles and Mr. Donnelly may live in Lakeside Village. If so, it’d be logical for Miles to begin his search there, as that would be where he last saw her before departing for India. This search then would likely include Eugene’s and Mr. Donnelly’s homes, which would explain Eugene’s fear. Michiko’s last deduction implies he focused on hiding Michiko’s body before hiding the hatpin. So based on Eugene’s behavior, he might’ve managed to hide the body but had either not yet hidden it or not hidden it very well.

As for what happened to Michiko’s body, there’s a good chance it was thrown in the lake. (This village is responsible for multiple deaths aka “sacrifices”. There’s also how they use animal meat in their other sacrifices to throw into the lake while asking for their wishes. Could Eugene have tried to hide her by chopping her up like the rest of the animal meat and throwing her that way in order to prevent anyone from ever finding her or suspecting anything? I doubt anything so grim would happen, but I wondered anyway.)

Eugene reports his success in dealing with Michiko and her body to Mr. Donnelly. He says the “moving expenses exceeded my estimate”.

This could be because he hadn’t initially hid her body very well and had to move it once he started worrying Miles would find. The other possibility for the meaning of this line could be in reference to Michiko being pregnant in her 6th letter.

Eugene continues by discussing how he’s “heard that your son instigated a disturbing investigation”. This investigation being his search for Michiko. We see in Michiko’s deductions, right after Miles puts up missing persons posters, and after Eugene’s worry over Miles knowing the truth due to the hatpin, the very last deduction is “But before it disappears, where should the body go?”. If he’s saying this after seeing Miles begin his search, that implies he hasn’t managed to hide it before now. Maybe he dug a shallow grave initially for it but now he needs to move it to a better spot. I don’t know why it’d take so long, but it’s also possible Miles returned home faster than expected once he knew Michiko was missing. Meaning, maybe he was intended to return in a week, but after seeing his father’s telegram, Miles managed to come home sooner than that. Michiko’s body would’ve already begun to decay quite a bit by then either way.

Back to her letter, it states Eugene and Mr. Donnelly first met 6 months ago. 6 months is how long Miles was supposed to be in India. However, if it takes about 2 months to get to India from England via the Suez Canal, and another 2 months to return that same way, I wonder if Miles was actually away for closer to 10 months. So, if Eugene hasn’t sent this letter until he finished with Michiko’s body, and Miles is already searching, that could mean maybe they met 4 months after Miles left (2 months into his stay in India). Unless the travel time was accounted for by those 6 months and thus he was only in India for maybe 2 months. I’m not sure.

As for the hatpin, we actually do have more info regarding what happened to it (than about Michiko’s body). Martha tells Miles that Michiko’s keepsake was sold at an auction to the owner of Oletus Manor (Orpheus). The seller was “a young woman who's good-looking and slender and had an accent”. We know this was Margaretha Zelle (who I’ll call Margie to better differentiate between her and Margaretha Hari) based on Zelle’s 6th letter. This is reasonable considering Eugene is Margie’s uncle.

We learn from this letter that Margie was with Sergei when she sold the hatpin to a pawnshop. Meaning Margie hadn’t run away to Hullabaloo yet, implying she would’ve been in the village during this whole situation. She’s likely met Miles, even before he began his search for Michiko, who she might’ve met before she’d been killed. We know Eugene didn’t attempt to hide the hatpin until after he’d hidden the body, therefore, as Margie is living with Eugene, this explains her access to it.

It doesn’t appear as if Margie knew her uncle killed Michiko, as Margie in her 6th letter only seemed focused on the hatpin’s appearance and value. Although, if she met Michiko in the village before she’d died, you’d think Margie would’ve seen Michiko with the hatpin at some point, so presumably would know it belonged to her. But I still doubt she knew her own uncle killed Michiko, or the fact the hatpin was the murder weapon. Mostly as there’s nothing that hints at her having this knowledge. At least not yet (if they share any more details about it).

I doubt he’d want anyone besides himself to have it, considering it is the murder weapon and what might happen if Miles were to see it, so I don’t think he just gave it to Margie. Although, Miles likely did see it at some point, considering we know Martha was told by him to look for it, which is how she found out it’d been auctioned. It would also better explain Eugene’s reaction in Michiko’s deduction 9.

The issue is we have no idea where it was (prior to Margie taking it) or how Miles saw it. Considering there’s no hints in Martha’s letter that Miles told her Margie had it. All Martha says is the lady doesn’t seem to be Michiko. I also doubt Eugene simply left it lying around, as he likely wouldn’t have wanted Marjorie, Margie, or anyone to discover the truth. If Margie or Marjorie told Miles they saw the hatpin in their house, or if Miles saw the hatpin lying around somewhere, I don’t see why he wouldn’t immediately go to take it. And if Miles saw it in Eugene’s house or anywhere on his person, Miles would potentially suspect him.

If anything, since we know the hatpin had to have been taken from Michiko for it to be “sharpened” to look “more like a tool than an accessory”, that may imply it was stolen. Michiko then could report the theft or ask people if they’d seen it. This could be how Miles finds out about the hatpin to have Martha go looking for it if he encountered people who told him the hatpin was taken from her some time before she died.

Speaking of Eugene and Marjorie, I want to bring up a crack theory I had. Remember how Margie used “Soothing Salts” on them to allow her to run away with Sergei? We know these soothing salts are essentially sedatives, as Margaretha’s 9th deduction implies it caused her aunt and uncle to “oversleep”, long enough that “you might’ve missed the market in the morning”. What if Eugene was the 1 to originally buy those “Soothing Salts” to use on Michiko (and if there was any left, maybe that’s what Margie used to put her aunt and uncle to sleep)? Maybe he used them similar to how Margie did.

Where he would’ve used this on her before killing her is a bigger question. Eugene likely couldn’t kill Michiko at his own house as he couldn’t let Marjorie or Margie see what he was going to do. He also likely didn’t kill her at Mr. Donnelly’s home, as Eugene in his letter to Mr. Donnelly implies they haven’t seen each other in 6 months. Wherever he did it, it still makes some sense he could’ve used this to knock Michiko out, at which point he’d easily be able to stab her with the hatpin, killing her without a struggle.

Regarding the soothing salt, I believe it may actually be Potassium Bromide. Potassium Bromide can be described as a salt, was a sedative that was widely used in the 2nd half of the 19th century, it’s soluble in water (which could be how Margie was able to add it to the borscht she gave to her aunt and uncle), and it can taste bitter in higher concentrations (and Margie’s 9th deduction describes the soothing salt as “a bit bitter”). Not super important, but I thought it an interesting note.

Going back to Michiko’s 2nd letter, Martha said “quite some time had passed”. As Martha seemed focused on the seller, her comment may be in regard to the time since Margie sold it. We don’t know how long Margaretha was at Hullabaloo, but we know the hatpin was still at the pawnshop on her 2nd visit to the pawnshop. As she is alone during this visit, this may imply this visit was after the tragedy at Hullabaloo, after Sergei’s death. Her 3rd visit is some time later, while she’s been trying to provide for herself. So, the hatpin was sold some time between that 2nd and 3rd visit, and Martha only found out once it had been sold. So, Martha likely found out the hatpin had been sold around the same time Margie did.

My best guess is Margie was at Hullabaloo for at least half a year to a full year. Joker is smitten with Margie fairly quickly after her arrival, and the acid burn to Joker’s face occurs soon after he finds out Margie is being abused. She had to have been abused for at least a couple of months before Joker finds out. She likely wasn’t at first, so maybe another month or so before Sergei really starts being cruel with her. We also know her role at the circus was as an animal tamer, so she’d need time to become skilled enough to be selected with Sergei as the main event on the day of the tragedy. Therefore, I think at least a year (or half) is believable.

So, Miles might’ve been searching for Michiko for at least a year (it had been “quite some time” either way) before receiving info about her keepsake. That then brings us to the question of is the Martha he’s in communication with the real one or the fake one? Considering in the relations page, the line between Martha and Miles says “deceit”, it was likely the fake one.

We don’t know when or how Martha and Miles met. All we have is the communication between them while he’s searching for Michiko. He knew she was an Officer considering his info request to the Department of Veterans Affairs in Michiko’s 4th letter. They’ve both served in the military, him in the army and her in the Cavalry and Air Force. However, she was a signaler at an airport, and the Wright brothers didn’t perform their first sustained flight until 1903, so I don’t see Miles visiting her airport for a flight to India or anything. That could leave us with the Cavalry. I don’t see Martha being sent to India, but it’s possible they interacted in England, such as if they were ever stationed at the same location together.

The fact Martha refers to herself as “your loyal friend” is the primary reason for this question of when they first met. If they were friends, that could mean they knew each other even before Miles’ search for Michiko, and thus Miles might’ve known the real Martha. However, it’s possible they really did only meet during this search, and ergo only after Hari began pretending to be Martha. My thought about this though is if they only met when Miles commissioned her to find Michiko, wouldn’t it make more sense for her to instead refer to herself a different way? Unless she used the word friend just to gain his trust (maybe she wanted to lure Miles to the manor for Orpheus, who knows).

For now, I’m instead going to focus on when did Miles send his request for info on Martha. The answer here is likely given in Michiko’s 3rd letter. Miles is at the manor, and despite how Martha should’ve arrived 3 days ago, there’s still no news of her whereabouts. Thus, it makes sense for him to send the request now. We don’t know how long it takes for the reply to come, but when they finally answer and attempt to send it to his home, it keeps coming back. Likely because Miles hasn’t returned from the manor. “3 months” after their initial attempts, they instead send their reply to Michiko as the “beneficiary nominated in Officer Donald's information form”. However, they don’t know that Michiko is already dead.

The info on Martha that they share states that Martha went missing “6 months before the document was issued”. Again, we don’t know how long it took for them to respond, but I doubt it was more than a month at most, maybe a week at the earliest. Martha’s 6th letter implies her parents reported her missing fairly quickly, potentially the same day she ran away, as they knew she left on her birthday. We know they also hired private investigators and ran ads, not to mention when Alice visited the Behamfils it says “Martha had been missing for days”. So not overly long. Thus, I think by the time Miles filed his info request, it wouldn’t have taken long for Veterans Affairs to collect the info already available on her and send it to Miles. A week seems believable in this case.

Therefore, if Martha went missing “6 months before the document was issued”, and it was issued only a week after Miles sent his request, that means Martha has been missing for about 6 months before Miles arrived at the manor (at the time of the letter, Miles has been missing for 3 months and Martha now missing for 9 months). With this, it seems more likely Martha had already run away before Miles ever got in contact with her (if he’s been looking for her for at least a year, based on my earlier explanation). Miles probably commissioned “Martha” not too long after Martha Behamfil ran away, maybe a couple months at most after.

That could also imply Hari had pretended to be Martha Behamfil for up to 6 months before going to the manor for her own game, at which point she too went missing. If Hari was already pretending to be Martha Behamfil the day she went missing, that seems to imply Baron DeRoss knew Behamfil would run away. If he knew when Behamfil would run, I wonder if he helped orchestrate it, at which point he’d be able to tell Hari exactly when she could take the identity, and thus giving her the day Hari could make her own escape from the organization. That also means somewhere in those 6 months is when Evelyn left to pursue Hari. She probably didn’t follow immediately, maybe it was a few months later, but it makes me wonder, even if Evelyn couldn’t attend Hari’s game, if she might’ve attended the same game as Miles, or maybe the game after his.

[sirenjose]

have you seen the coa 8 trailer? what are your thoughts on it?

This won't be super in-depth (primarily focusing on the major story points) but I'll try to give the thoughts I did collect while rewatching the trailers, reading through the event, etc…

Overall, the trailer seems the most important in generally touching on each of the important parts of the story.

COA 8 Thoughts

So, we know Orpheus wakes up in the desolate environment of COA 8, without any memories, and joins the individuals he encounters as they journey through the wilderness. Before this, we see Little Girl and who I believe is Orpheus (the point of view we see it from) in a lab of some sort.

(Orpheus likely looks like the doll we see Little Girl holding later on, which the design notes say "The two dolls act as two images: one of a novelist from the mycelium era".)

He is performing some type of experiment, which has been failing so far. Little Girl appears to be trying to help him, but at some point we see her taken away into a building.

The truck to the side reads "The Most Vital Sanctuary" (I cant read the words underneath unfortunately), while the paper Orpheus is holding is titled "The Official Transfer Application".

Based on the outfits, the masks, and the general design of everything, this looks to be occurring during COA 7.

We know after Melly returned via the spaceship from Yuggoth that the world became infected by Lord of Calamity and his mycelium. There is a shelter for those who have not been infected by the mycelium, which is likely the same one we see during the COA 8 trailer. We also know that they were attempting to do experiments with the mycelia. Qi wanted to convert the mycelia into "resources useful to humanity". It's possible Orpheus was doing something similar. It's also possible he may have been searching for a way to cure the infected. We don't know. All we do know is he seems to have been unsuccessful, and Memory, whyever she was taken, ended up dying (or falling to the infection of the mycelium).

Orpheus is obviously devastated by this, as we then see a device. There is also a drawing of that design with the word "Aforgomon" beneath it. And next to the device, we see the words "Back to the Past".

As mentioned in a previous post with "quoththeowl31", Aforgomon is a time deity connected to Yog-sothoth. The time aspect would tie to the intention to go "back to the past". With his goal being to keep Little Girl from dying and to "go home".

However, I do not believe he succeeded in achieving his goal. Instead, I believe he ended up traveling into the future (it's possible there's a different explanation, but the main idea is that I don't think he went into the past). Besides the fact the environment implying this fact (it's even more in ruins and dystopian than it had been previously during COA 7), there's also how Orpheus begins wondering if Little Girl is a "hollow construct" meant to lure him, based on him noticing the "artifacts" they encounter seem to "speak directly to our deepest desires" and are laid out like "breadcrumbs". Aka, she's still not "alive". (The design notes do describe her as a "wooden doll".)

The design notes mention "'new world' after time is reversed", which I think is referring to the world essentially "restarting" due to the disaster from coa 7, and being sent back technologically to a time before any technology

All of them are growing weaker and slowly become more eroded as they journey on. We see this when Violetta (Arachnidopter) turns on them, with Little Girl (Compasso) seemingly sided with her.

The design notes do say "and knowing how to use bait to wear down her prey's strength" (so yea, Little Girl is likely Violetta's bait to lure everyone).

Orpheus ("Genesis"), already weakened from their journey, couldn't handle seeing Little Girl getting shot (by the arrow from Charles).

As a result, he falls into the hole that may be the same one we see during COA 7 (which could parallel Orpheus wanting to rejoin Eurydice in the underworld when he fails to bring her back to life).

The holes don't look the exact same, but I'm simply making a guess based on the fact we have 2 holes the characters of each coa (Orpheus in coa 8, but the whole team in coa 7) go into, with that being where Lord of Calamity is. That and Orpheus' pendant, which had some of the mycelium was reacting more as they ventured closer to it, and he did throw it in there, which he didn't here impact the ground and a rope he put in was somehow severed when he tried to lower it in. Orpheus does comment on it feeling "restless" and how "some force [was] holding it at bay". And during the COA 8 music video, when he finishes falling, we see him sitting next to Little Girl, before being rejoined by the COA 8 crew. This could just be part of the music video, but considering during COA 7 Lord of Calamity made the coa 7 team see similar dreams of stuff they wanted to see, this feels pretty similar. So yea, I do assume for now it could be the same hole (Lord of Calamity could've been the one to "create" Little Girl, or Violetta I guess, or somehow he was involved with her being there, and behind everything that lead him to the hole with Lord of Calamity. Especially since Little Girl fell to the mycelium as we saw at the start of the trailer, so it's likely possible for him to use her since he was behind her death).

I hope that answers your question (sorry this took me so long).

[sirenjose]

Burke's birthday portrait came out and his silhouette has a very distinct cat shape in it.

It looks like the Eye of Darkness Cult has infiltrated deeper into the Manor games than we thought before and it could explain why Burke is so mutilated looking yet still active.

I understand he's a mechanical genius but even his genius is bound to be limited.

It'd be interesting if he had some connection to it. Especially as there's no hints anywhere from the info we do have access to. We know Luca will end up in Alva and Ann's game, and Luca's previous game did have Burke and Bonbon involved. Maybe he'll carry over from that game, even if Bonbon doesn't, and could wind up with the 3 of them.

Reminds me how I saw someone ask if the eye in the background for Lanterist could be tied to the cat cult or not.

No idea if she actually is, as the only bit of info we've been given suggests she could be tied to Joseph somehow.

So many questions...

[sirenjose]

any thoughts on lockcore's backstory? i'm curious what made her decide to join DM's shenanigans

We know Lockheart during the Crystal Palace event wanted to protect the Crystal Palace and stop Duke White Raven. Her other goal was the doll left behind by her father, who had wanted to show it off at the Crystal Palace, but was stopped by Duke White Raven. She upgrades it to allow her to control it remotely before fulfilling her father's dream of displaying it to the entire Crystal Palace. After doing so, she states she'll be taking it with her wherever she goes.

Lockcore Analysis

We also know she mentioned the royal family might put out a warrant for her arrest, and thus wanted to avoid the authorities. And as she didn't want to cause Paranormal Detective trouble, who she knew didn't want to turn her in, that's why she fled that day.

Besides that, we know she wanted to fulfill the dreams of others, including Paranormal Detective's (via the drawing of his perpetual motion machine she had locked away with the Koh-I-Noor diamond when it was returned to the royal family).

That doesn't give us too much to work with, but we know she greatly cherishes her father. Just like in canon, that doll is tied to him, so it's possible she may want to use it to in some way replicate her father like she wants to do in canon. I don't think this is exactly what she'll want to do, but at the start of Lockcore's trailer, we do see her in some lab looking room with someone sitting in a chair with a bunch of bottles of different collared liquids, wires, a headpiece that reminds me of her Cunning Smile Disease skin, and what appear to be a bunch of models or robot parts in the background. I wonder if maybe she is still trying to upgrade her doll to look more like a real person (just a guess based on trying to connect it to the robot stuff behind the figure in the chair).

That or this could be showing she's helping DM with his experiments, and as we see Gatto in a scene right after that one, and we know we saw Ulliel with a bunch of bodies in Gatto's trailer, she could be helping DM by helping them perfect that drug he's been working on.

During the trailer, the lyrics do say "They play their games / I'll play mine too / Dancing with the devil is nothing new", which to me implies she's not with DM just because of sheer loyalty or something. I read this as she has her own motivations and for now that's lead her to align herself with DM (and once they don't align, that could lead to her making a change, such as by leaving him). Near the end, it does talk about how she wants to be the one in control "spinning the threads

Later, it continues "All the chains I bear / Leave me no escape / So I found a new faith in darkness' embrace / In the shadows / My methods unfold". I read this as her past actions have potentially forced her to join with DM. I doubt it's simply just due to the threat of arrest from the royal family, it feels like there's more to it than that, but we don't have that info (though I could be wrong and it is just the fallout of Crystal Palace).

We do see a silhouette of Duke White Raven in her trailer, so it's possible she wants to pursue him and that could be why she may need DM's help. Or why she went to him, since we know DM is somehow tied to Duke White Raven, as the epilogue to Crystal Palace implied DM was the reason for why the royal family didn't make Duke White Raven's involvement public (and thus possibly meant he suffered no further consequences for his actions during the event). Maybe Lockheart found out about this, and might've been disgusted by this kind of corruption, but maybe this ended up being the only way she could do something about it.

Otherwise, the only other guess I have for why she's with DM comes from the last line of the trailer, when it says "I'll bring this world to peace". So to me this reads that her goal is to end some conflict. She still seems to care about Paranormal Detective based on how she looked at him during the trailer, so maybe she's trying to do something that could help him in the end. Maybe this could still tie to her desire to fulfill other people's "dreams".

Other than that, we'll have to wait and hope we get more information eventually I think, as there's not much else to work off of.

Sorry it's not much, but hopefully this helps somewhat!

[sirenjose]

Netease seems to be hinting at the release of a new (most likely a Hunter) deity from the Cthulhu Mythos, a.k.a Aforgomon. You probably already know, but Aforgomon is a time deity though it's also speculated he may be an avatar of Yog-Sothoth. So far, his named appeared in the COA8 trailer in a blink and you'll miss it moment and recently was the Behold the Vilulf event where the very island Brynhildr was on was named after Aforgomon (they keep pronouncing it as Afogomorn though). Truth be told, I think he was hinted at as far back as The Proof of Azoth's Theorem event. That shadowy figure holding onto Helena and saying "Time to wake up" is similar to the one whispering in Brynhildr's ear from the event trailer.

What do you think is the significance of Aforgomon's presence? From what I see, both Orpheus and Joseph have played a role similar to that of the priest in the story the Chain of Aforgomon.

I honestly hadn't checked out Aforgomon (mostly, as I always say, Cthulhu mythos is a weak point of mine). But regarding potential significance he'd have...

As you said, if Aforgomon is tied to Yog-Sothoth, that'd already serve as a connection (with Fiona notably, who's already tied to Yog-Sothoth). As for time, that aspect makes me think of how the whole plot is due to the tragedy in the past that led to the deaths of the DeRoss couple. Not to mention the base of the greek myth of Orpheus being him attempting to bring Eurydice back to life, I'd say it's not out there to have a time deity possibly tied in.

Then I see in the story you referenced, it mentions a drug involved with memories, which at least reminds me of Hydra, considering it is said to "reconstruct" memories. And when the drug gets used, the character talks about the death of their wife and wanting nothing to tear them apart. Which sounds very reminiscent of the myth with Orpheus and Eurydice.

This wouldn't be the first time something from cthulhu mythos is potentially tied to the story (Hastur, Yidhra, Yog-Sothoth, Cyaegha, etc...). Though my question for Netease regarding whether there's any actual supernatural stuff, or if it's just caused by the drugs/hallucinations remains. But we'll see.

Thanks for bringing this up!

[sirenjose]

Truth & Inference - Gambler in the Spotlight Trailer Analysis/Thoughts

I love how it portrays Ronald as sweating to show his nerves over going out on stage (why would they show him sweating and taaking a deep breath like this otherwise considering no one else can see him at that time?). It contrasts quite well with how we then see how confident he becomes once he’s Gambler.

We also see him pull a golden gun out of a holster on his waist. Which is the same one we see being used later in the trailer.

He’s clearing been doing well since we last saw him in Golden Rose Theater (and he even has a car like that somehow, but I’m not going to start asking questions about time period here).

And I know some saying all these shots may just be fan service, but what I appreciate them for is giving us a good look at his scars (which I’m hoping we can say are essentially the same ones he has in the main story version too).

2 along his left shoulder, 1 of which is quite large that goes across a portion of his chest as well, 1 on his left arm a bit above or near his elbow, and 1 on the lower left part of his chest.

And we could also see the scar on his face is quite large and goes pretty high.

We then see a shot of him at a party with DM. So still implying he’s at least knowledgeable of DM (beyond just knowing him from Golden Rose Theater, though how much so isn’t clear). The gun is also not in his holster, but I wonder if that’s because it wouldn’t be allowed at a party like this.

Then there’s the scene of him at a casino. I wonder if this could be tied to wherever he was with DM and/or why he was there. Maybe DM asked him to do something for him, or maybe this is something he’s doing on his own. Again, no info here.

But he is hold a suitcase, which reminds me of the one Tuberose was holding in another trailer. But that one had a very obvious Melodis family symbol on it, while inside was likely 1 of DM’s experimental drug things, while Norton’s does not have that symbol (or color). That and the men Norton is fighting against look very similar to the same ones we see Qilin/Wu Chang fighting, the ones that are sided with Tuberose and thus DM.

So I wonder if the casino we see Norton at was owned or controlled by DM and/or the Melodis family, and Norton was fighting against them. If so, maybe that could mean the man we see sneaking into Norton’s room, as well as the note we see on Norton’s table under the gold gun came from them (DM/Melodis family). That or, if they’re sneaking into Norton’s gun, it could be someone with a personal grudge of some sort.

Maybe not, but consider what happens later in the trailer, it seems likely that whatever that note said, it was likely a threat or warning of some kind. That would explain why someone wanted to take Norton’s gun and kill him with it. Maybe because of whatever was in his suitcase (maybe he stole it from someone at the casino, or from DM, or somewhere else. I have no idea, just throwing out various ideas).

Maybe he had brought the suitcase to the casino because, maybe like in Stormy Night Surprise, some party wanted to make a deal for whatever was in it or wanted to take it. Or maybe he got the suitcase while at the casino or whatever and whoever else was there didn’t want to let him leave with it. I wish we had more info.

Maybe he was stealing 1 of DM’s drugs. Maybe he was doing something similar to what we see implied by Gatto’s trailer and story.

Anyways. We have no idea how someone snuck into Norton’s room, but it’s curious that, despite their ability to do so, they didn’t try to kill Norton while he was vulnerable and defenseless in the shower. For some reason, he saves it until during the performance Norton is holding at the theater later. It’s possible there was a reason why he wanted to do that. Maybe it was part of the ultimatum. Or maybe there was a specific reason why he wanted to do it there. Maybe because he’d have an audience there to witness the deed if he did kill Norton. Or maybe he wanted to try to ruin Norton while he was on stage. But it’s curious whatever the motivation was.

While he’s in the shower, we get a shot of his back, which gives us a different perspective for some of his scars. We see the ones on his shoulder, and that 1 large one goes pretty far up and down its back. It looks kind of deep.

But we also see another scar, this time in the shape of an X, sort of right where his back right shoulder blade is.

There might be another further down the right side of his back, but maybe not. It’s hard to tell.

After his shower, we see him holding some kind of medal with a star on it. And in the mirror in front of him, as we see him likely put it in his left breast pocket (which will be important later), we see an image of his past self, when he was still in the military. The time period that’s been referenced and alluded to since the Atropos’ Ropes event, when we learned, Naib, Norton, Jose, and DM were all in the military together.

The medal, considering the image of his past self, likely came from his time in the military.

And speaking of his past self, we see he has quite a few bandages on him. One covering his right eye (even though we know his large scar is over his left eye? I’m not sure if it’s a different injury or a mistake), then quite a few covering his chest and left arm.

We can also see some symbol on his right shoulder. Potentially for whatever group they were a part of while they were in the military.

Maybe unnoteworthy, but Norton’s past self looks like he had been running, based on the position he’s in as if he’s catching his breath.

The scene then changes, returning to the theater. Norton has something in his hands. I believe he is tearing up the note we saw in his room earlier, the 1 under the gun that was likely a warning or threating message.

It’s also interesting as there’s no way Norton wouldn’t notice the fact that his gun has gone missing. But he still acts as if nothing is wrong as he goes up on stage.

It’s also likely that this is the reason why Inference, Jose, and Truth are present at the theater during his performance. Possibly as backup in case something does happen, or to simply help get the bad guy. Inference is likely trying to do an investigation (possibly a subtle one as Inference has no idea who is the threat and wouldn’t want to alert them), while Truth is watching things from backstage.  Jose is likely the reason for the police presence at the theater at the time and the one managing all of them.

We even see Mary and Frederick watching the performance from above.

And it’s from backstage that the man who stole Norton’s gun appears, but Truth is looking away so fails to notice him sooner. There’s no real identifying characteristics beyond the untucked shirt and somewhat nice looking shirt. I wonder if he’s someone who’s from the higher (rather than lower) class, somewhat rich, but may has fallen on hard times somehow based on his disheveled appearance, and this guy for some reason sees Norton as potentially causing his trouble most likely.

The lady Norton is dancing with (at least at first glance for me) was very reminiscent of Bella (before taking a longer/closer look). I don’t know if that was intentional, but considering what happens later in the trailer while Norton is at the theater, I wonder if it was done on purpose to evoke parallels to what occurred during Atropos’ Ropes).

Maybe I’m looking too much into it, but the lady seemed shocked just like everyone else in the theater at the appearance of the gun-wielding man. This same feeling seems to continue it seems, when she seems a bit surprised when Norton suddenly begins moving them once more.

He shields her by moving her behind an obstacle before sending her further away to safety. His skills have very likely improved quite a bit since he was acting the role of Ronald.

Once he’s alone, he gets the man’s attention, taunting him, to lure him further away from the audience but also higher up on the stage.

The audience is likely still in shock and, especially with Norton’s behavior, is still unsure if this is real or just another part of the performance (likely to keep them from panicking or knowing there’s anything actually seriously wrong).

Jose though is clearly aware and is sending the police in.

Inference, on the other hand, isn’t looking. It’s hard to tell what he’s thinking (why he’s so invested in what he’s looking at, unless he’s aware this is serious but knows he can’t do anything and needs to leave it to the police).

It’s taking the police time to get to where Norton and the man are.

And despite the situation he’s in, Norton is still appearing to be completely calm.

The man’s hands are shaking as he’s pointing the gun. If he’s still having to take the time to get the nerve to do it, maybe that could explain why he didn’t try to shoot Norton earlier rather than simply follow him up the stairs. Or maybe he didn’t care since he believed he was in control because he was the one with the weapon while Norton was unarmed.

The man finally takes a shot but Norton manages to mostly keep out of the way, only suffering a scratch. His agility may also reflect his training and experience as former military.

Norton charges then forces the gun to right where his heart is.

Despite the situation, Norton is still as confident as ever. Maybe because he knows that medal is right there in his pocket. But I wonder if he knew if that medal would truly save him, but as an actor, his confidence in his skills or confidence in his luck, or because he was happy no matter what happened.

Speaking of his soldier training, I noticed the placement of his finger on the gun, and how he lifts that finger out of the way right before the gun goes off. I wonder if he purposefully was blocking the gun from firing until he had the gun pointed exactly where he wanted it to be. If he was in the military, he’d know his way around guns.

Once he’s shot, we see Norton falling while images of many points in his past appear, from when he was a child, to his time in the military, and even Ronald one more time.

We can also see an image of Norton in the military along side Naib and Jose. Jose and Naib being here with Norton would also go along with Jose's comment back from the previous event about how Inference ranked below him in the military, but someone else was ranked number 1. Based on the image, it seems like Norton was first.

The angel in the background feels quite fitting (thematic?) in the scene as Norton falls.

We then finally see Inference showing concern and moving towards the stage, as does Jose, the police, and parts of the audience.

We can also see a badge on Jose, which I think should be the same sort of badge that is on Farfara for the British police

Fortunately, Norton is still alive. The area on his jacket where the gunshot went off blackened, but that’s it.

The audience, based on the way they’re cheering Norton, could possibly still think this is all part of the performance. Or they’re just cheering that he’s actually alive despite how it looked.

The police are then able to take the man into custody.

Jose and Inference clearly looked surprised (but relieved) to see Norton is ok (despite the fact he just fell from a great height even if he wasn’t shot).

We see a newspaper article about the event, and that plus the way Norton was shot while higher up on the stage before falling, not to mention the way the lady he had been dancing with earlier was at least somewhat similar in appearance to Bella from a quick glance makes me wonder if the parallels to Atropos’ Ropes was on purpose. The difference here being that Norton didn’t die. Maybe this helps the theater better move past the day of Bella’s death by having this happen. Or maybe he’s somewhat putting on this very similar show as a nod to his performance with Bella (maybe like how he put the 2 coins on Benny’s eyes in his 6th letter after Benny died, this could be like that but for Bella. I don’t know. Just thinking different ideas).

The trailer ends with Norton staring at the badge that took the bullet for him. A badge he earned while he’d been in the military. So I guess he sees that badge as good luck, and maybe that’s part of the reason why he decided to bring it with him before the performance, which worked in his favor.

He has bandages on him, so despite how he had been acting before, he is likely still suffering some pain.

We also get another look at his back, and there is indeed another, fairly long scar in the bottom right and side of his back, under the “X” shaped scar on his back.

(I'll edit this later for any mistakes I made)

[sirenjose]

O///O!

[sirenjose]

Thank you for answering my last question! I really love the idea that Phantom's antidote could be the one that helped cure White (or close to the antidote🫶) May I ask another question that's not too lore focused though? I was wondering what year the T&I timeline took place, what are your thoughts about it? Thank you once again ><

Well, if I had to make my best guess, T&I is has some inspiration from Sherlock Holmes, which takes place around the same time period as the main storyline. This being the late Victorian Era (end of the 19th century) and the early Edwardian Era (start of the 20th century).

Regarding the main storyline, we know the DeRoss couple was killed in 1887, while the final game took place around 1902 I believe (correct me if I'm wrong). The 1st Sherlock Holmes book, a Study in Scarlet, was published in 1887. Sherlock and Watson 1st met each other in 1881, which was the same year Alice was born. Watson used to be in the military just like Inference, who seems implied to be T&I's version of Sherlock, while Truth seems to be his assistant, aka Watson.

There's the Crystal Palace that was used for the Great Exhibition in 1851, then rebuilt from 1852-1854 to be used as a venue for various events, until it burned down in 1936.

There's also the Golden Rose Theater. This has some inspiration from the Moulin Rouge, which was co-founded in 1889, and destroyed by a fire in 1915.

Either way, I haven't seen anything to imply T&I takes place in took drastically different a time period. But these are just some quick thoughts of mine.

[sirenjose]

Truth & Inference - The Voyage of Oceanus, Noir, and The Proof of Azoth's Theorem

I got questions from @empireofvampires and @meyjhii involving Truth & Inference. Apologies it's taken me this long to get around to answering them! I posted some thoughts on the event when it first came out (the 1st were my "predictions", and the 2nd were my thoughts once we the 2nd trailer came out), but I'll work on the summary and any analyses that I can do for the Voyage of Oceanus, as well as my thoughts on Noir/White and whether he was experimented on, and a small summary and a couple of the major points of the Proof of Azoth's Theorem (sorry I didn't think there was enough to do much, but I can if someone's really desperate for it).

(I have not proofread this, sorry. I'll try to edit out any mistakes later.)

The Voyage of Oceanus - Summary

So we know Frederick's (Phantom Sail's) dad, Professor Schelling, was part of a research team on the research vessel "Isembard". Also on that voyage was Violetta's (Mercator Projection) dad, Professor Branley. Branley experimented with the mutated jellyfish's toxins on the rest of the vessel's passengers, causing hallucinations and eventually to the ship sinking. Professor Schelling as well as all his students died that day, 25 years before the present. Frederick was too young to inherit any of his father's knowledge or "academic achievements", but he discovers the truth of that voyage by the time he grew up. 25 years later, he recreates the voyage (with the help of DM) as closely as possible, even ensuring the passengers are similar to the original ones and play their assigned roles.

Mr. Inference is requested to solve the mystery of the Isembard by "Richard Worthington", the supposed last survivor of the sinking. Soon after, he is offered an identity (Theodore Banks) to allow Inference to partake in the voyage by an anonymous individual, who states their reason for doing so is because their "interests are aligned in this matter".

Professor Branley's daughter is also included in the voyage. She is to be the cartographer whose chart will retrace the route of the original Isembard. During the voyage, passengers start hallucinating due to poisoning from the jellyfish toxins. Inference discovers this as well as that the chart Violetta is using is incorrect, and that Frederick is the one behind everything. Frederick wanted to investigate the jellyfish at the "heart of Oceanus" and has been testing "refined" toxins (as part of a new drug) on the passengers. Even Inference was affected, who passed out after confronting Frederick about the truth, with Frederick also eventually finding out that he was Inference. Frederick later states that if Violetta charts them a route home and if the other passengers stay ignorant of the experiments, he won't do anything to them. Additionally, Frederick wants Inference to help "thwart a certain scheme" concocted by DM. To all this, Inference agrees, and after dropping off the other passengers, he then departs to fulfill the new request.

So, the few things that catch my eye is the anonymous individual who provided Inference his fake identity to board the Isembard, the drugs (made from "refined" jellyfish toxins) that Frederick is using to poison everyone, and whatever "scheme" of DM's that Frederick wants Inference to stop.

The Anonymous Individual

The anonymous individual is someone who was aware that Inference had gotten a request regarding the Isembard, and thus at least is someone who's heard of Inference's name and works as a detective. It's possible that whoever it is relates to wherever Inference is being sent next, and whatever this "scheme" is.

Initially, I wondered if the client that originally hired Inference to investigate the Isembard was Frederick and if the anonymous person was DM.

The former idea I now believe is incorrect as Frederick implies he wasn't originally aware: "Had I uncovered your identity, perhaps you truly would have met your end on the deck that day".

As for the latter, I'm not 100% certain it is based on how the person says: "I did conduct a little private investigation into you and your firm in advance, but considering how quickly our time is running out, please forgive me for forcing such a bold introduction". This makes it sound like someone who's not super familiar with Inference and his detective agency. Not to mention how the person talks about "our time is running out". That doesn't sound quite like DM, who I don't think is ever in any hurry to sound like that, unless he's acting since Inference has no idea who he's talking to. But still. At the moment, I'm leaning more towards this being someone we will be introduced to in the next event, when we get to find out where Inference was sent to.

However, an idea I’ll get more into later, I wonder if this person may be Gatto.

We already got a small reference to him in the Zinaida event (the doctor who gave the drug that helped Ada with the outbreak at the children’s hospital), so maybe we’ll finally be able to see him appear in an event. Gatto would be someone who isn’t super familiar with Mr. Inference, but we have seen him “[conducting] a little private investigation into you and your firm in advance” based on the article we see Gatto reading at the end of his comic. That and the cork board in front of Gatto’s desk at the end of his trailer that details many of the events tied to Mr. Inference and his detective agency.

We even see him communicating with Inference in Gatto’s trailer based on the paper Inference is holding with the image of Gatto’s cat on it.

To go along with this, there is even a mention in the comic that would fit with the idea Gatto would sound like he’s in a hurry like the anonymous person sounds in their message to Inference. In the comic, he has a message from the Ulliel family stating they’ve prepared the lab and everything he needs to do the experiments now that he’s joined the Ulliel family. At the end of that message though, it states “Please do not forget about the agreement between us. Time has a limit”. If Gatto is facing a time limit, that’d explain why he sounds rushed and has little time to talk with Inference.

That and Gatto, due to his connection to the Ulliel family, would be familiar with DM (we even see them in the same place in Gatto’s comic and trailer).

DM is connected to Frederick, with DM being the one to fund the whole recreation of the Isembard and the voyage itself. Therefore, that means there’s a chance Gatto would have heard about this upcoming voyage DM (and Frederick) have planned and he would have an interest in the matter due to the involvement of the drugs (and the anonymous individual implies they have a shared interest), which Gatto’s trailer and end of his comic imply he wants to stop (or at least investigate).

But I’ll get more into this idea a little later when we discuss the “scheme” Frederick wants Inference to stop.

Frederick's Drug

Regarding the drugs, it's possible it may be connected to 1 of the drugs we're already aware of. This includes "Eternal Beauty" and "Delphi".

Delphi was a product of 1 of the failures of the Eternal Beauty experiments. It is a hallucinogenic that smells like datura and can cause death in large quantities (it is corrosive).

Eternal Beauty is a drug we know Ulliel (and Gatto) was attempting to create, and the successful version of the Delphi drug DM referenced. We know Eternal Beauty helped Ada (Else Goodwin) treat an outbreak at the children's hospital and had the side effect of causing drowsiness.

Both drugs were created using the same "ferns" (which based on implications regarding the doctor Ada got the drugs from, Ulliel is closely connected to these "ferns").

Hallucinations and drowsiness link these 2 drugs to the paint Tuberose used on Bélóstáin. That paint was made using the "special plant specimens" on that island, which are created by Rosemary via a "secret formula". Rosemary had created these plants to allow her to "[take] control of the island". We know DM eventually gained her trust, thus resulting in Rosemary sharing her formula with DM, who we know is invested in the above drug experiments.

Regarding the drug/toxins Frederick used on the Isembard, we know it causes hallucinations (which Inference first witnesses via Alice aka Candid Portrait), unconsciousness (Violetta aka Mercator Projection), and Frederick essentially implied it can cause death too based on his threats. Due to the similarities, it's possible his drug is Delphi or is an improved version of it.

The other difference I wondered about is Frederick seems to possess both “a poison derived from the toxins” of the jellyfish as well as a “highly effective antidote”. When Delphi was 1st introduced to us, we never learned about an “antidote” (likely since Zinaida had already died due to the drug, so there was no point), though it did say death is only caused via “large quantities”. This makes me think, if less of the drug was used on Zinaida, maybe she would’ve been like the passengers of the Isembard after they were poisoned. I wonder, if this is indeed a difference, maybe this could be part of Frederick’s goal for this voyage. To investigate the jellyfish at the heart of Oceanus, test out his poison, but to also test out his antidote? Unless he already developed the antidote and knew it work, but again it’s just a thought since I can’t help wondering.

DM's Scheme

There is little we can say about whatever scheme Frederick is asking Inference to stop, as unfortunately he gave no details. But I did want to bring up 1 idea based on the theory the "anonymous individual" is Gatto.

In the comic with his package, Gatto wants to complete his experiments to create a successful Eternal Beauty. The 1 subject that showed some success is stolen by Noir. Paranormal Detective tries to dissuade Gatto from continuing to work with the Ulliel family, saying they may be conducting unlawful/illegal experiments (and even calls the origins of the experimental products "suspicious"). Gatto says they only want to "help the living attain eternal youth", though he is beginning to have some doubts in the back of his head. Paranormal Detective then warns Gatto to be cautious of the Ulliel family and pay attention to their actions. Sometime later, we see Gatto mention the research will continue once the new experimental equipment arrive. Gatto is looking at an article on the detective Mr. Inference. After which, he puts on a gas mask and thinks to himself that, if he really is mistaken, he'll "need the detectives' assistance".

Therefore, I wonder if the "scheme" Frederick wants Inference to stop involves DM's drug experiments with the Ulliel family. Frederick said he'd take him to the "requisite location", which could be the Ulliel facility we see in Gatto's trailer and comic. At the end, he adds Inference can leave once the task is complete, at which point he says "the decision will be entirely yours if you choose to make these events known to the world or seek to apprehend their designer and pursue legal action". This implies the "scheme" is potentially illegal/unlawful enough where Inference will have the option to "pursue legal action" if he wants, which would fit the situation with the Ulliel family implied by Paranormal Detective.

It's possible this "scheme" and the anonymous individual are completely different from any of my guesses here, but this is just the only one that I was able to develop enough to guess what the "scheme" was. Otherwise, it'll just be someone new and a scheme we'll have to wait until the next T&I event to see.

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Noir/White - Experiment?

Speaking of Eternal Beauty, someone had asked about the “001” marking on White/Noir’s collarbone and whether he was experimented on.

The “001” I believe lines up with the “M001” one 1 of the pages (the 1 labeled “Diagnostic Center”) from White’s package.

The file labeled “Diagnostic Center” mentions White’s “physical dysfunction and memory loss were probably caused by poisoning. This can match with how in White’s regular file (labeled Orpheus Detective Agency) Inference says “his body seems to have been affected by some kind of drug”. 

White was found unconscious outside their detective agency with amnesia and “instinctively resistant” to recall his past.

The diagnostic file in comparison refers to him being in a “coma” and unable to recall any memories from before it.

In addition, White’s report describes him possessing a fear of heat and sunlight.

The diagnostic file does not make any mention to this, though it does state he was extremely thirsty and had a dry throat upon awakening. Besides that, it also lists him having headaches and “visual and auditory hallucinations”.  

As for my thoughts, White was found “unconscious”/in a “coma” and experiences “hallucinations”, with his body affected by “some kind of drug” and his other symptoms caused by “poisoning”. This somewhat makes me think of the symptoms experienced by Violetta on the Isembard. Details are scant, but we know she was knocked out after being “poisoned” by Frederick’s drug made from “refined jellyfish toxins”. It doesn’t say she was in a “coma”, but it does say she had “entered a deep state of unconsciousness” and did not respond to noise while in this state. It also said her “breathing is weak”, which makes me think of White’s report mentioning hypopnea, which causes shallow breathing and reduced oxygen levels. She also only recovers once Frederick cures her, and it seems she might’ve stayed unconscious until that happened as it says later, once Frederick cures her, that was when she finally “[regained] her senses”. She doesn’t appear to have any loss of memory, though we don’t have all the details of the scene when she awakes. And even if she didn’t experience hallucinations, we know the other passengers who were poisoned did.

I do wonder if Frederick’s antidote is something new, and in which case if it’d help White at all? It’s possible it wouldn’t since Frederick’s poisoned is described to use “refined” toxins, and thus it might be different version than whatever was used on White, but still just a thought I had.

Continuing with my other thoughts, we know Noir stole some variant of Eternal Beauty. 1 that seemingly showed at least some success.

Based on Gatto’s comic, I wonder if the “experimental subjects” used for his Eternal Beauty experiments were derived from or used on the individuals from the missing persons cases referenced in Gatto’s trailer.

Later in that trailer, we see Gatto and Paranormal Detective looking shocked at some medical room with a number of bodies (likely dead) atop the tables there.

This is likely tied to why Gatto then says “All for that damn drug from that insane family”.

So Gatto and the Ulliel family were already using people as subjects for the Eternal Beauty experiments. It would follow then that DM, who’s shown tied to the Ulliel’s (and how he describes Delphi as a product of 1 of the failed experiments for Eternal Beauty, we can say he’s likely working with them to some degree), would also test sample he stole from the Ulliel’s on a person too. Noir is the 1 who took the drug, so I could see (with what we know of DM) that he’d test it out on Noir.

A thought I had in combination with this, we see in Gatto’s comic that an explosion occurs after he mentions “[adding] the wrong solvent” while working on creating Eternal Beauty. However, it is only after this that 1 of his subjects seems to show some signs of success. What if, once DM got his hands on the sample Noir stole for him (and once he did any further experiments on his own without Ulliel’s involvement, if he did do more experiments or tried to recreate what he had stolen), when he tried to either recreate the drug or test it on Noir, maybe a similar explosion occurred, or a fire started. If that solvent Gatto added is necessary for a successful version of Eternal Beauty, and it is at all capable of causing an explosion depending on the amount and what it’s combined with, maybe this could relate to Noir’s fear of heat?

Either way, Noir/White’s symptoms sound a lot like Orpheus’ after the final game when he was in a coma for a time and woke up without memories. We also see Orpheus hallucinating while at the manor, so he matches up quite a bit with Noir/White.

You could also say Orpheus is also resistant to an extent to recall his (true) memories, regarding the Final Game (which likely causes him to lose Alice) and the tragedy (the death of the DeRoss couple and his involvement in it, as his real parents helped cause it). Orpheus is creating Hydra that can be used to “reconstruct” memories, meaning create new ones that may be close to reality but aren’t the truth (like the Oracle drug from the 2nd anniversary package). It’s possible he’s doing this because he doesn’t want to remember, based on Alice’s letter to Orpheus in the 2nd anniversary package where she says “Please don’t blame yourself for father and mother’s death” and later “I could feel your pain”, while the original backstory for Oletus manor mentions (after their deaths) him being “in a trance for a long time due to the powerful mental shock, and protected himself by closing himself off”.

And speaking of similarities with Orpheus, we know there was a fire at the manor when Orpheus was found in a coma after the final game. In the original backstory, it actually mentions “the cause of the fire was the explosion of the incinerator in the absence of supervision”, so now we have an explosion to connect to the 1 we saw happening to Gatto as he attempted to create Eternal Beauty, while also relates to how these games were happening as part of Orpheus’ own drug experiments and creation of Hydra.

The issue with both “Eternal Beauty” and Orpheus’ experiments is we still aren’t 100% sure of the truth. We know that Gatto says eternal beauty will allow “eternal youth”, but we are also aware that Gatto doesn’t know everything about the Ulliel family and the truth of their unlawful experiments, so we don’t know for sure if that’s all this drug is being created for, or if that’s what it’ll really do. I mean, we know Ulliel has been kidnapping people based on the “missing persons” cases and see their likely bodies in Gatto’s trailer, the same bodies that Gatto may be using in his comic, including the 1 that showed some signs of success.

If these are dead bodies, it does make me question if their purpose is just “eternal youth”.

It does remind me of another thing that has appeared in the main storyline with the manor games. Specifically, a line from Violetta’s 4th letter: “We will forget everything in the past and gain new life”. I forget if this has appeared elsewhere, but the idea that the participants will “forget” but “gain new life” seems to fit Orpheus, who has “forgotten” and has gained “new life” considering he’s not like how he used to be. I do wonder if it’s possible the same sort of thing might’ve happened to the other participants, that they “forgot” everything and thus had to start a “new life”. 

The same sort of thing has happened now to Noir/White. He’s forgotten everything and we know he’s different from before, since we’ve seen how he acts as Noir based on his trailer and Gatto’s comic (compared to White’s comic).

This is still an incomplete thought, as this is what I’ve been able to come up with so far. No way to know for certain what’s right or not. These are just theories at the moment until we get answers.

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The Proof of Azoth's Theorem - Important Points

I thought about whether to do something for The Proof of Azoth’s Theorem, but I felt there wasn’t much of note from that event that would be important for the main plot of the series.

Truth reunites with Clio (Arya Miller), who’s inheriting Azoth’s Library from her grandfather.

Helios is obsessed with making the Philosopher’s Stone, and kills the other directors, including his brother (Director Waning Crescent), as well as lures Arya to help with the creation of the stone. Eventually, Helios takes Arya captive, tries to use her blood to make the stone, but it fails. Officer Jose, who had come with Truth to the Library, swims across the “opposite bank” (because “some nuisance pulled up the drawbridge early”) to sneak to a window, break it, then shoot Helios before he can do anything else.

This was the one part I took note of, based on what Officer Jose says to Truth:

“Although I haven't exactly been active in the field for a long while, I haven't lost my touch! Back in the army, even Inference ranked below me!”

When Truth asks about Inference’s rank, Jose responds by saying: “Inference was third, I second...” in terms of rank.

This back-and-forth is the first time we’ve heard anything about Inference’s and Jose’s background. It’s not much, but it does tell us Inference’s position, his relation to Officer Jose, how the 2 met and likely got to know each other, and also the way it leaves open whoever was 1st in rank implies it’s likely something important to note. It could be DM, as we know he was in the military with Inference, or it could be someone else. I’d also like to add, as we know Ronald was also in the army with Inference, if Inference was 3rd and Jose 2nd, Ronald was likely at (if there was more than 1 at the third position) or below 3rd.

Jose’s “pinpoint precision” is another minor detail, and something I’d imagine is shared by the others from the military.

Otherwise, the only other bit from this event that may matter is it’s been 3 months since Inference left on the request regarding the Isembard, and we know he’s already accepted Frederick’s request. I’m unsure how long the Isembard’s voyage from start to finish took and thus how long since then Inference has been away, but noting the time is still good.

[sirenjose]

Jose's 5th Character Day Letter/Message

(Of course Jose’s 5th “letter”/message isn’t exactly straightforward or clear, and of course I have even more questions/thoughts now. I'm both happy and what to scream in frustration at the same time. Is it just me? I really do love his portrait either way.)

First, the mention of the “shipwreck”.

While we are fairly sure Jose’s father died, and it is highly likely Joaquin sank with everyone else on it, I don’t believe Netease (if they were referring to the day Joaquin vanished) would refer to it as “the ordeal known as the ‘shipwreck’”. His backstory and elsewhere only refers to Joaquin as having disappeared and never returned, with the last line of his backstory stating he was going to the manor to find his father. I think Netease would therefore continue to reference this incident in this way rather than reveal or confirm such a thing in this manner (that and 5th letters/messages are usually simply summaries of a character’s story, they aren’t really meant to tell us something new mostly). Anyways, due to Sam’s involvement in Joaquin’s disappearance and him being the likely cause behind Joaquin and the crew that day seeing hallucinations of things the cannons couldn’t kill, there’s still a fair bit we don’t know, so who knows if it was a simple shipwreck or not.

To get to the point, I think it’s more likely the mention of a “shipwreck” is referring to the incident referenced in Jose’s deduction 3 and 4 that resulted in most of the crew dying and them being unable to return home for 2 months. A shipwreck would very easily explain the large number of casualties, while the need to rebuild or acquire a new ship would explain such a length of time. It would also fit with how Jose spoke of “nightmarish waters” when talking about that day, and such a description would fit if there had been a shipwreck.

Speaking of which, deduction 4 is titled “Entangled” and includes the line “the devil’s tentacles are just out of sight”. I can’t help but think about this line more considering Hastur’s new accessory and all the tentacles with his special carry animation.

I’ve pointed out before how Hastur’s initial S-tier is called “Poseidon’s Crown”, with the accompanying A-tier being “Poseidon”.

That and Hastur is connected to Lakeside Village. Lakeside is where we can find Jose’s ship, implying Jose may have some link to the place, as well as an area in the back of the map that appears to be of a vessel/boat being constructed. To me, I can easily imagine their ship being wrecked during Jose’s deduction 3 and 4 at Lakeside Village (who knows if Hastur is involved or not), and them being stuck there while work on a new vessel is occurring.

We already know Lakeside is a place where all the villagers are said to have disappeared, with the only clues as to what happened being the empty boats in the center of the lake (based on Lakeside Village’s backstory). It’s not to hard to imagine something similar, but this time to Jose’s ship, could happen here.

The last thing I’ll bring up to back up this theory is a point I’ve referenced for quite a while, and that’s the trailers/backstories for Season 18 Essence 3 and Season 19 Essence 1. Both which depict a ship in a storm, the ship being wrecked, the survivors washing up at Alice’s home, and the same man (based on us seeing someone with the same appearance in both trailers) appearing in both that causes the destruction of Alice’s and Orpheus’s home along with the other shipwreck survivors Alice and Orpheus had helped previously in the trailer.

This leads me into another point about Jose’s message. This is the 2nd time now that we’ve seen the term “pirate” appearing in his story. The 1st time we saw this was in Departure Date’s design notes, which comment on his “painful memories of being a pirate”.

As we are seeing this term brought up once more, that likely means that this is being mentioned on purpose and for a reason. Meaning sometime in the past the Badens were involved in something akin to piracy. This would connect to Jose’s deduction 7 mentioning the nightmarish waters taking away his companions as well as their “conscience”, not to mention “awakening the demons” in the “Baden’s blood”. Not having a conscience and awakening “demons” implies Jose’s father and the crew did something that was morally wrong, something bad. Something that could include being involved in the tragedy that led to Alice’s parents’ (the DeRoss couple’s) deaths.

Netease has already stated that Season 18 Essence 3 and Season 19 Essence 1 are closely connected to the main story. If Jose’s father and crew are meant to be represented by the shipwreck survivors we see in those trailers/backstories, the actions we see, including destruction of property and/or burning everything to the ground, attacking and/or killing people aka innocents, and finally theft/looting/plundering, these are all actions that would fit with the idea of being a “pirate”.

In Jose’s 5th letter/message, I think the term here is linked to how it mentions correcting “the sea chart in his memory” that was “distorted long ago”. This implies Jose’s memory is “distorted”, and it’s possible “awakening the dormant pirate within” is a way of saying he needs to remember the truth of what happened in the past. The way he has to remember is phrased curiously. “Dormant pirate” could mean his personality, like his memory, has also been distorted and maybe he either needs to return to how he was, or is sort of saying Jose in a way is shackled/chained up and he needs to free himself (like a pirate against the rules I guess) if he wants to “reach his destination” and restore his memory.

Also, the way it says his memory was distorted “long ago” I think further backs up the idea the “shipwreck” ordeal is referencing the incident from deduction 3 and 4. I don’t think Jose’s father’s disappearance wouldn't have been so far in the past it’d be described as “long ago”. In Jose’s backstory trailer, he for the most part looks like he’s intended to be close in age if not the same age as when he entered the manor, which is how we see him in game. So a couple years at best, but that’s not “long ago”.

On the other hand, the incident in deduction 3 and 4 seems to have happened not too long after Jose and his father first came to Britain (from Spain) considering deduction 1 talks about them now having “new identities, new flags, new routes”. At this time, Jose was likely considerably younger. This is based on how deduction 3 mentions how he sees themselves as “the bravest sea knights”, the sort of ideal (or term) a youth would have (or use) vs an experienced sailor, like Jose after he’d been traumatized by whatever happened in deduction 3 and 4 to cause him panic attacks. And this was likely before the Badens are described as being well known to everyone from his backstory, before they worked for the actual Queen. Point being, this 1st incident is more likely to be something that could be described as having happened “long ago”.

We know after that incident, Jose began having panic attacks and night terrors that worsened to the point he might not be fit to sail anymore, and the only way he could fall asleep was by eventually turning to alcohol (deduction 6 implies he might’ve tried to escape from his trauma by sleeping, but when that no longer worked, he turned to drinking once he was older).  We know Joaquin, Jose’s father, was unhappy about his son potentially not being able to sail anymore due to Jose’s deduction 8. This deduction is titled “Drugs: To forget is the best cure”, with the description being “A torn letter: I don't need my son to remember how to be a good man. I just need him to get us out of every sandbank and reef”. Jose’s father really wanted Jose to continue doing his job and helping Joaquin look good for the Queen.

This deduction literally mentions “forgetting” and not needing to “remember how to be a good man”. Based on this, Jose’s 5th letter/message seems to confirm that Joaquin likely did do something to Jose to cause him to forget, likely specifically that incident from deduction 3 and 4 that is causing him to be potentially unfit to sail anymore. Distorting Jose’s memory was apparently the only way to ensure Jose’s trauma and panic attacks/night terrors didn’t prevent Jose from continuing to be able to sail. However, it seems Jose’s drinking habits continued, considering it still caused him to miss boarding the ship occasionally, notably the day Joaquin vanished. It’s possible his memory being distorted is connected to how the manor owner mentions Jose had “deep hypnosis” performed on him, with the only detail we get being it came with a “spiritual anchor” that gave Jose the mental fortitude to complete the (manor) game.

---

(A bit of crack theorizing for a moment because I can't help thinking while working on this at the same time)

If Sam was involved with Joaquin and the ship disappearing (possibly using a drug like Siren’s Song on them, which causes people to see illusions based on Ashes of Memory part 1), I wonder if he also could’ve been behind Jose not boarding the ship that day…

We know Joaquin, based on the “torn letter” was asking someone to essentially “fix” Jose to ensure he did his job. Joaquin may have needed Jose, not just because of Jose’s navigation skills or because Joaquin could manipulate him due to Jose being his son (maybe to cover up a crime, or help him commit one, or ensure the crew did what he wanted, who knows), but maybe also because of Jose's “blessing” from “Poseidon” referenced in Jose’s backstory, which supposedly ensured they were always on time and never troubled by storms or waves. This at least connects to how Departure Date essentially implies if Jose had just been on board the ship that day, his father and the ship would never have disappeared. Unfortunately, it’s not explained why him simply being there would’ve ensured a better ending for them.

Though it seems like Jose got that blessing during or after the incident of deduction 3 and 4, since if Jose had the blessing before this incident, there never would’ve been that storm that made Joaquin take the alternate route that led to the shipwreck and everything else, and if they wrecked at Lakeside (or because of Hastur), that could be when Jose might’ve encountered Hastur and potentially got the “blessing”.

In any event, we do know Joaquin is connected to Sam, due to Sam’s signature on Joaquin’s ledger of goods the day Joaquin vanished. Maybe Sam was the one Joaquin was asking for help from.

I’m not sure if Sam could be behind the “deep hypnosis” performed on Jose, but it’s possible he could’ve been behind Jose’s memory being “distorted”.

Jose’s character relations page does say Jose and Sam were “drinking buddies”, but we have no other details about this.

We know Jose drank, and we know Sam had a bar, so maybe Jose, who needed to drink to deal with his trauma and panic attacks as well as ensure he could sleep (without fear of night terrors), went to Sam’s bar. We know from Jose’s backstory that, the day Joaquin disappeared, it says Jose was “delayed by matters in Liverpool” and thus didn’t “set out to sea with his father”. Maybe whatever he was doing in Liverpool was connected to Sam. I don’t know if Sam’s bar was in Liverpool (as Demi’s backstory said they came to a “small” European town while her 2nd letter mentions Southampton), but Liverpool was a crucial port of maritime trade and travel to/from America and the west in the 19th century (and the Bourbons came from America).

Or maybe it had to do with Vilhelm, who we know was in Australia and experimented with some of the same drugs Orpheus has been experimenting with, and both Joaquin and Sam are connected to Vilhelm. Sam is potentially working for Orpheus, who we know also appeared in a photo with Sam and Vilhelm in Alice’s flashback in Ashes of Memory, and Alice’s 1st letter implies Orpheus was trying to help Alice remember him, and that same letter even references Sam, who’s drawer had the key Alice was able to use to help her escape from Vilhelm.

Even if Vilhelm was working with Joaquin and wanted whatever items he sent Joaquin to fetch that day, and even though Vilhelm was Sam’s “sponsor”, it's possible Sam’s loyalties lay more with Orpheus than Vilhelm.

We know Orpheus didn’t like Vilhelm due to Vilhelm taking Alice and thus why Orpheus would work against Vilhelm.

If Joaquin was tied to the tragedy that led to the death of the DeRoss couple, that could be why he might’ve asked Sam to drug Joaquin and crew to ensure they died, but Sam, who was “drinking buddies” with Jose, might not have wanted Jose to get killed too, and thus why he might’ve ensured Jose was drinking that day or something so Jose wouldn’t be on the ship as well.

Sam might’ve already been in Australia with Vilhelm, Alice and Orpheus, or maybe he was already at Oletus Manor, as we know from Demi’s backstory he did eventually leave and not come back. So maybe rather than drinking with Sam, Sam had Jose drinking with Demi, who still took care of the bar in Sam’s absence, and we know Sam sent Demi the recipe for dovlin so he was still keeping track of her (and Demi’s letters potentially imply him and Demi were in correspondence with each other for some time at least).

---

Lastly, there’s that mention of “voyages through dreamland”. As we’ve mentioned, it likely ties in to Jose’s distorted memories. It may also tie in to Jose’s 1st and last deduction, which start and end with “3,2,1... Sweet dreams” and “3,2,1... Wake up”. Jose may be hypnotizing himself or it could be whoever Joaquin asked to fix Jose, but in any case it fits well with his 1st and last deduction. Considering we get these lines right at the start and end of his deductions, this fits in well with the idea that Jose’s memories are “distorted”.

I also find it curious considering Yidhra is a character and “dreamlands” could also connect to her “Dreamlands”, and she is also connected to Lakeside like Jose based on the settings of Yidhra’s letters (and I have wondered, as a crack theory, if Oletus manor is in the dreamlands and that could be how many of the previous participants could've vanished without a trace but not have obviously died, since only Orpheus' body was found after the Final Game).

[sirenjose]

Missing Player-ID: 157716441

Puzzle Solver Analysis

Main Story: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6

Hidden Story: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5

Plot Analysis: Part 1 Part 2

1 of the rewards from purchasing this game is the in-game B-Tier skin for Norton: Puzzle Solver.

Description: Every clue seemed to attract more danger, but in its midst, someone whispering can almost be heard. "Don't come any closer. Don't come any closer."

Based on the name and the fact at the start of the event the mother says she wanted to hire an expert “puzzle solver”, it’s possible Norton is meant to parallel the Detective in this story. Based on his outfit, we can see he has a similar detective-themed costume like Mr. Inference and Lady Truth, as he also has a deerstalker cap, pipe, and magnifying glass like the other 2 do, all of which are items popularly associated with Sherlock Holmes and other Detectives.

Another point that may tie Puzzle Solver to Mr. Inference and Lady Truth is how on an invitation letter that came with the physical package of the game, there was a seal for “Orpheus Private Detective Firm Stamper”

This is the same seal we see in the 4th anniversary package (for DM), on things like the character pages for Lady Truth and Mr. Inference. This ties to how Mr. Inferences is said to have started a private detective agency in his Truth and Inference poster description, and Lady Truth is said to have joined the “Orpheus Detective Agency” in her background description.

Actually, it’s possible that Puzzle Solver is tied to Patchwork, as he has a magnifying glass on the same spot on his hat as Puzzle Solver, except Patchwork’s magnifying glass has been pierced by a horn.

Puzzle Solver may also be tied to Ronald, as we know Mr. Inference and Ronald of Ness were comrades back when they were both in the army.

The fact he is a detective helps show that Norton is actually quite smart, which ties to his willingness to learn and how skilled he actually is.

Every clue “attracting more danger” while also hearing whispering about not getting any closer potentially is meant to connect to his involvement with Golden Cave. Norton getting more “clues” could relate to him as he gets closer to it. There was how he started out as a miner until he was dissatisfied at being unable to change his fate and escape poverty by simply working hard as he had been, before he acquired the list of 13 mines from Benny. Norton getting “closer” to the 13th mine, aka Golden Cave, could relate to him approaching “danger”. The warning not to get closer to it can relate to the accident that ends up occurring at the cave, as well as potentially the danger from the meteorite.

The part about someone saying “Don’t come any closer” can also relate to how everyone avoids Norton, like in his backstory after the accident when everyone gave him a “wide berth” (and didn’t comfort him as he recovered) due to being afraid of his scars, as well as Melly who warns Alice away from him. It also can relate to how, before he left to search the 13 mines, people were “intimidated” by how hard he worked. It can also connect to how Norton avoids interacting with other people and avoids forming relationships whenever possible. He doesn’t want to get attached, he keeps them at a distance, and keeps quiet as much as possible. We see this in some of his tweets, where if a person tries to get too close or acts too friendly, he starts to act a bit strange/differently. It also ties to how Norton doesn’t seem to understand what “love” is and believes that people always want something from him, that no one is ever actually simply nice, that everyone has their own ulterior motives. This also relates to how he grew up in a cruel environment where his employers were merciless and didn’t even care if their employees got hurt or were killed.

The large question mark (“?”) on his hat can also relate to Norton himself. This is especially because of how he has 2 different sides, as he hides his real self under a mask tries to keep everyone a distance away from him. His issues worsened after the accident (and after getting the meteorite).

[sirenjose]

Missing Player-ID: 157716441

Plot Analysis Part 2

Main Story: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6

Hidden Story: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5

Plot Analysis: Part 1

Puzzle Solver Analysis

The mother, Qin Yiying was another person affected by Liu Bingsen and his organization. She was likely “Patient X” from the BPRS document, the patient that remained “calm”. She was the author of a document dated September 9th 2005, where she talks about “good news” that there’s been no new “suspicious behavior”, as well as maintaining a “peaceful” appearance for the sake of their daughter, and forgetting the past and what she saw if it “doesn’t continue”. The “suspicious behavior” is in reference to the truth of Liu Bingsen’s actions.

“September 9th 2005 Today is the tenth anniversary. It should have been a very happy moment, but I couldn’t be happy. Looking back 10 years ago, in the church, we swore an oath in front of the pastor. Our friends, like us, have happiness and joy on their faces. When I say ‘I do’ I feel that the future is full of beauty. But I didn’t expect to become like this today. I really don’t want to believe it. I am very conflicted, but whenever I think of the situation at the time, I still hold up hope. The good news is that there have been no new suspicious behaviors in a year. For the sake of our daughter, I’ll maintain the appearance of peace and choose to forget what I saw before and to never reveal it, as long as it doesn’t continue. I am still willing to hold out hope.”

We know based on the December 9th 2009 document, as well as Research Fragment 6, that Qin Yiying eventually did learn the truth about what Liu Bingsen was actually doing. This ties with how, when the Detective asked the mother if she loved her husband, she avoided giving a straight answer and couldn’t say she actually did.

Going back to the December 9th 2009 document, Qin Yiying commented on not being a “helpless child” anymore and wanting “revenge”/“just punishment”. We also talked about her nightmare and Liu Bingsen seeing his father’s face mirrored in her eyes. To understand everything, it’s time now to talk about Qin Yiying’s past. ***** gave the most telling info on her in his “About Her” file and in the document dated September 9th 1992.

“About her: The daughter of a lost parent, many hardships, inescapable misfortune, life is ups and downs. Hatred and patience, struggle and submission, although there was little hope, she was fortunate to escape. I wanted to live in peace and heal my wounds, I want to leave my past behind. But then the shadows appear and crisis awaits, she escaped the wolf’s den, into the tiger’s mouth. Fortunately, a secret love was born, and the butcher’s knife was temporarily withdrawn. The knot is tied, and they are joined together. 15 years of different dreams in the same bed. There are many lies, disguises, and plans.  The world is easy to change, but it’s hard to change one’s nature: a great deal of trust, in exchange for 100% sorrow. When the truth is revealed, all hope is lost, only by killing the sinners can we be saved. The wheel of fortune spins relentlessly, the remaining treasures also turn into clouds of smoke. Now, a broken soul. I’ll leave it to you to interrupt her slumber.”

“September 9th 1992 The man I've never met always gives me a glimpse of fantasy when I'm vulnerable. What does he look like, do I look like him? My mother might have kept a picture of him, but it was so long ago that no matter how hard I tried, I couldn’t dig into my memory to find out what he looked like. Was he a gentle man? I still remember my mother describing their story to me with great emotion, but I can’t remember exactly what she told me. Although I had never met him, I could feel the happiness in her words - if one had seen the story of the man and could not remember what was said, one could clearly perceive the happiness. Such a person must be gentle. If I could meet him, what should I tell him? I should tell him what happened to my mother ...... and tell him that she was wronged in his absence. I feel for her. As for me ...... I’d rather not let him have too many worries. He’s a hero to his country and a hero to my mother. He’s already too tired. And… I’ve found a way to reconcile with myself in the dark basement(?). They gave me companionship and encouragement in my most desperate moments, and allowed me to persevere without him. Do I hate the devil? Of course! After making him disappear completely, they all advised me to leave the hatred behind and just run away, as far away as possible. They all said that if I kept the hatred, the person I hated would not really leave me. But it's not easy! The excruciating pain, the festering wounds, the black bruises ...... they know too! They've been through it with me! No more, thankfully, no more: a new world, new friends, no more wounds, no more shouts, no more nightmares. If my mother had known, she would have been pleased that I had met a good man. He would have given my mother what she lost – a happy family. And my child would not have to see their father only in memories as they does now. When they think of their father, they must be filled with happiness and pride. I'm sure they are. But I'm really curious what their father was like.”

This information the Detective is given tells us that Qin Yiying never knew her father, seemingly dying in service to his country. In the September 9th 1992 document, which is written by Qin Yiying, she talks about wishing she could tell her father about how her mother was “wronged”(?) in his absence.

Combined with the “About Her” section, the mention of the “broken childhood” during the main section of the game should actually refer to Qin Yiying’s childhood, not her daughter’s (Liu Lingjing).

“April 3rd 1995 It’s so beautiful here, and it’s the perfect place to come with friends and loved ones when the cherry blossoms are in bloom. I feel better. In a few months, the lotus pond next to here will be full of lotus flowers and ducks will be playing in the water. We’ll have to come back then. In the future, when we have a child, we will bring them here often to play. I hope their childhood will be happy, unlike me… But the good news is, that’s all in the past, right?”

In the September 9th 1992 document, she talks about finding a way to “reconcile” with herself and talks about making the “devil” disappear completely. The meaning behind this could be related to the one phrase about a body being thrown into Iron Camel Mountain(?). When the name was mentioned, the mother talked about it being dangerous, hard to find, and very dark. Therefore, the true meaning behind this could be that Qin Yiying killed someone, this “devil”, and threw their body into the mountain to hide the evidence and her crime. Whoever this was could relate to the page from December 2009 which mentions a “name” the mother didn’t think she’d ever see again. It was this same document that referenced “new victims” and wanting “just punishment” now that she wasn’t a “helpless child” anymore.

Considering what we’ve said so far about Qin Yiying’s nightmare and Liu Bingsen’s father, as well as what we know the organization Liu Bingsen joined, it’s possible Qin Yiying witnessed her mother being abused (or even killed potentially) by Liu Bingsen’s father, who was likely part of the organization (In Research Fragment 3, Liu Bingsen mentioned the organization having a “strict selection and inheritance system”, which may imply Liu Bingsen was able to join because his father had been a part of it).

The reason Qin Yiying’s mother may have been abused or killed by this organization connects to the wrapping paper for the package the Detective received, which had the label “Vietnam Immigration” on it. This is important based on the information we received from ***** which talked about “witch hunts”, extremism, and discrimination. Qin Yiying’s mother likely suffered from this kind of inhuman treatment.

Based on the line about Iron Camel Mountain, it’s possible that Qin Yiying killed Liu Bingsen’s father in revenge. This would explain how she knew about the mountain being dark, dangerous, and hard to find, which was why she’d choose to hide the body of the “murderer” there: to hide any evidence of her crime.

From the “About Her” section, we see that Qin Yiying tried to forget the past and live in peace, but she ended up falling in love with the son of her enemy, the so-called “devil” potentially. Liu Bingsen knew the truth of who Qin Yiying was but didn’t get rid of her. Instead, they got married, and Liu Bingsen used deception to try to hide his secret from her. This is where the “About Her” note, specifically the part about it being hard to change a person’s nature, as well as how the truth was revealed, hope was lost, and salvation only coming from killing the sinner. This was to hint at Qin Yiying eventually learning the truth (that Liu Bingsen’s father killed her mother and the shady business Liu Bingsen was involved in, including trafficking human organs and/or body parts), with the part about “killing the sinner” referred to her killing Liu Bingsen in revenge by sabotaging his car.

“The safety standards for cars are so high that there is basically no possibility of direct spontaneous combustion, even if the fuel tank has been hit. Even spark plugs, because they only use an electric arc, ignite the (oil-contaminated) gas mixture, not the gasoline fluid itself. Since…”

Unfortunately for Qin Yiying, the day she caused her husband’s accident, he wasn’t leaving for shady business, but because he wanted to take his daughter to Happy Valley to play.

“September 8th 2010 The other day, Su Su (?) went to Happy Valley again (water stains). I always wanted to go there, but I didn’t make the trip. It would be nice if my parents came with me. But I can’t get my hopes up, or you’ll be even more upset if you get stood up. Mom has been uncharacteristically late in recent months, but instead (water stains) has started to leave work on time, and seems to be counting on Dad to be more reliable. Latest Information! I just learned that Dad is going to Happy Valley tomorrow, hehe~ He promised to take me there, and he said he will take me to the haunted house, even though I’m scared, I’m still super excited. Dad told me not to tell mom. (Water stains) Of course, you can’t (water stains) skip school, and I’ve said several times that (water stains) I’m not going to be able to sleep.”

This accidental death led to the creation of the daughter personality the mother has. This personality finds clues left by the mother (the real personality) and her father. The daughter’s social media account also has some entries where she talks about feeling out of control, being awake for shorter periods of time, before commenting she “remembered”, which may have been when the mother (real personality) took control again, forgetting everything, leading to the mother thinking he daughter had disappeared.

This was likely what happened to the mother after we told her about Iron Camel Mountain/Tie Tuoshan. She realized everything had been her own fantasy, and that her real daughter had died years ago.

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On a different note, I want to quickly discuss Xiao Dadong. His patient records mention him claiming to have heard “the voice of a dead friend” saying something about “he wanted to take him with him to death”(?).

This makes me think of the report that mentioned a boy dying, and his death leading to serial killings, with the police finding 35 bodies in the suspect’s yard.

“On December 11, 1978, the disappearance of a 15-year old boy let to a string of psychopathic killings by John Wayne Gacy. Although the boy’s last interview was with his construction company before he disappeared, he denied seeing the boy when questioned by police. A police search accidentally uncovered his hidden underground “vault” and eventually found 35 bodies hidden in his house and yard…”

Liu Bingsen mentioned the killer’s nickname was the Clown, and Xiao Dadong also played as a clown before becoming a ghost at the Haunted House.

This would tie to 1 of the hidden messages left by *****, who talked about the “real killer” still being on the loose and using his flaws as the rules of the puzzle.

“It is a colorful world, but in different people's eyes, it has different colors. Blood is a horrible bright red liquid in your eyes, but some people see it as nothing more than a dark, sullen juice that doesn't stir up a ripple inside. Similarly, this is a world of diverse values. Different people have different pursuits. Although those who dare to harm others at will are in the minority, good ordinary people like you still need to protect themselves. I would say this story is not over yet, because the real killer is still on the loose. But from the very beginning until now, I've been using his flaws as the rules of the puzzle. I'm making up the world as I see it and sharing it with you in the hope that you'll still love it even after you know how cruel it is, just like I do, although the parts we love should be completely different. Oh, by the way, for me you can be completely at ease, I promise not to hurt you. If necessary, I will even help you.”

The rules for this puzzle involved color confusion, which can relate to Xiao Dadong being colorblind, considering he saw blood as brownish-yellow. It could be that the 15-year old boy that was reported to have died was the “dead friend” Xiao Dadong claimed to have heard, and if Xiao Dadong was the killer, it could mean the “this person killed me” message the Detective found in Dadong’s notebook was either from 1 of Dadong’s victims, or it could’ve been the “voice” he claimed to have heard in his head that may have been the reason he was driven to murder.

[sirenjose]

Missing Player-ID: 157716441

Plot Analysis Part 1

Main Story: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6

Hidden Story: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5

Plot Analysis: Part 2

Puzzle Solver Analysis

Background Summary: Detective receives a request from a mother to help find her missing daughter. The mother sends you a package, with all of her daughter’s belongs that she found in her daughter’s room, which includes her diary. The daughter (the “missing player”) was looking for the truth of her father’s death after receiving an anonymous letter while playing Identity V that revealed her father’s death was an accident. She receives a bag with a burnt poker card at home, and works to find clues left by the mystery man, both in game and in the real world. She eventually disappears from her home, likely as she learns the truth of her father’s death. Her mother finds her notes and the clues her daughter had attempted to hide or dispose of, but she can’t solve the mystery on her own. As a result, she entrusts the package of information to a detective, a “puzzle solving” expert, to help her solve the mystery and find her daughter. This package includes the diary her daughter had written all her notes and everything she saw in during her investigation. At the same time, you slowly realize you are being watched by someone, someone who likely had also been watching the daughter. There seems to be a connection between reality and the game (Identity V).

Father: Liu Bingsen(?)

Mother: Anran/Qin Yiying(?)

Daughter: Liu Lingjing(?)

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To begin, let’s start with how one of the big reveals of the plot: the “daughter”, Liu Lingjing, wasn’t actually the one solving the truth of her father’s (Liu Bingsen’s) death. The daughter actually died during the car accident that killed her father. Instead, it was the mother (Anran/Qin Yiying) who’d written the diary and had been investigated the father’s death. After her daughter’s death, Qin Yiying created a personality for her daughter, which was the personality in control during the investigation.

This can be backed up by looking at the number of coincidences regarding the mother and daughter.

The mother repeatedly mentions a leg injury, while 80129 in game comments the daughter had a similar injury. The mother’s injury likely came from climbing the high fence with the barbed wire into Orson Villa, while the basement with the beam the daughter bumped into due to her injury was likely the basement of Orson Villa after the mother (with the daughter personality) climbed the fence into it. This basement was likely the same one with the secret room the Detective is shown by the mother and his friend, the one with that looked abandoned.

There are also other instances, including how the mother mentioned how she used to solve puzzles, while the daughter had to do exactly that during her investigation into the father’s death.

Beyond the coincidences, there’s also how the mother and daughter seem to rarely interact or see each other. Supposedly, their relationship worsened after the car accident. The mother only provides food and clothes for her daughter, but never goes into her room, which is where the daughter usually stays. The daughter is also said to often hide or refuse to see her mother. The daughter didn’t want her mother looking at her diary, and the mother didn’t go through it after her daughter disappeared. The mother didn’t even know if her daughter has stolen or used her (credit) card, which she bought a 10k yuan item with.

Something that always stood out strongly to me had to do with the tree with the hidden hole that the Detective’s friend talked as being too tall for a child, but not for an adult. Another similarly suspicious incident was at the Concert Hall. The guard did mention a little girl coming with a man, but in the diary the girl never mentioned going to the Concert Hall with anyone else. The Detective’s friend confirmed not seeing the girl (alone) via the surveillance cameras. The guard did mention a woman though, which was likely the mother.

If the mother were actually the one acting as the “daughter” to carry out this investigation, it could explain several times when the mother hinter at knowing things she shouldn’t. For example, when she found the empty file container, the Detective knew a music sheet had been in there due to the symbol inside the container being the same one on the sheet of music we received in the package. Before this, when they were first wondering what had been in the container, the mother suggested it was sheet music, and when the Detective asked how she knew, she said it was just a “guess”.

Based on her behavior, it’s possible the mother has something like Schizophrenia. If she did, it would relate to the existence of that Patient Support(?) group (the “Walking With You” one), to her husband being a “doctor” (who joined that very group), and even to the 1 event where her husband was listed as a volunteer and she was a participant, with the talk being about psychiatric rehabilitation. Her husband likely knew about her mental illness.

Regarding this “daughter” personality the mother created and the mother’s memories of her daughter, this would also fit with how the mother seems to still be thinking of her daughter from 9 years ago, before she died in the car accident. This is based on the fact the year she says her daughter was born and what her age was before she disappeared are incorrect.

According to Anran: her daughter was born in 2005, her father disappeared in 2010, she was 14 in 2019 and disappeared around the end of October. Based on a note in October of 1998, where Anran talks about a concert and having a family with a child, we know Anran had a child by 1998. She married her husband in 1995 but didn’t have any children that year. So, if her daughter was born in 1996, she would’ve been 14 in 2010, the year of the accident. That’s likely why the mother thinks she was 14 the year she disappeared.

Even if this wasn’t an intentional lie, there are a number of ties when the mother has lied or tried to hide things from the Detective. 1 notable example is with the paper the Detective’s friend found in the coat pocket in the room at Orson Villa. While talking with the mother, the Detective did notice her acting oddly after he asked her to check for anything in the coat pockets in that room. She became afraid, seemed to have an idea of what she’d found or would find, and then quickly sought to leave the room. She was likely trying to keep the Detective from investigating and learning about her secret.

“They won’t let me go. Something will happen sooner or later.”

This paper the Detective’s friend found in that coat pocket is tied to another file we receive, dated August 14th 2010. This other file talked about destroying or hiding evidence, someone potentially seeking revenge for something they did, and the thought that something might happen to them. The author was likely Liu Bingsen (an idea the Detective agrees with based on the dialogue of the main section of the game).

“August 14th 2010 I have to deal with it by myself, and I know they have countless ways to destroy evidence. But before that, all of this must be hidden, because I am not sure whether I will incur retaliation after I do it, and I am not in a position to confront them now. If something happens to me, I can only hope that these things will be seen again one day. It’s been a long time since I came out to Orson Villa. I think this should be a suitable place to bury it, with all the memories and hopes of the past.”

“Revenge” is a word that appeared elsewhere. This time, the date of the file is December 9th 2009. The author talks about nightmares, the chance of “new victims”, not being a “helpless child” anymore, and wanting “revenge”, which they call “just punishment”.

“December 9th 2009 There was another dream, and awakening from nightmares has become a regular occurrence again... I thought I’d never have to see that name again in my life, and never have to think about it again. Nothing new has happened yet, but who knows? Maybe even if I noticed, I wouldn’t know, and he wouldn’t even care. And what’s worse, every day that goes by, there could be a new victim. Now that I am not that helpless child I was then, I want revenge. No, this isn’t revenge, this is sanctioned, this is just punishment. And this must be done by my hand.”

The author of this document, based on the mention of nightmares, is likely the same one from a page dated March 1st 2009. The nightmare described here involved a scarred little girl tied to a chair, a man with blood on his hands next to her, who gets grabbed by a little boy who looks just like the man.

“March 1st 2009 It was that nightmare again, it came back, and it became even more terrifying. The little girl in the dream was tied to a chair, scars all over her body, and she shouted hysterically. Next to her stood a man with blood flowing from his hands. A little boy went over and grabbed the man by the scruff of his shirt, and to my surprise, the child looked exactly like the man, accompanied by limbs crawling all over the floor. He must have come to kill me… I wanted to run, but I couldn’t move my feet… my head hurt and I woke up. My heart beat violently…  I can’t stop thinking about it… not again…”

This little boy is likely Liu Bingsen, while the older man was likely is father. This is because of one of the “Research Fragments” files where the author mentions a woman waking from nightmares, with “my father’s face mirrored in her eyes”. He mentions “coincidence” brought them back together, that the “relationship was a mistake” but he’d have to live with it now, not thinking the woman “caught anything crucial”, and even hoping she might join him one day.

“Research Fragments (6) Her eyes don't lie, she must have sensed something. I never doubted the value of what I was doing, but she couldn’t know about it. When she woke up from her nightmares, I could almost see my father's face mirrored in her eyes, something that I had once deeply feared as well. Coincidence had brought us back together, and maybe I should have been a little more ruthless. The relationship was a mistake, but now I have to live with it. But I don't think she's caught anything crucial, and I'm confident that I've gotten rid of it. It wouldn't hurt to let her know about some of the side stuff, and maybe she could even join me one day. Then I wouldn't have to put up with that guy and that stupid codename.”

The one “relationship” we are keenly aware of in this story is the one between Liu Bingsen and Qin Yiying, as the main section of the story even calls out on the church they were married at, plus the Detective says all the locations they’ve been to are related to her (the mother).

A file from January 5th 1995 also talks about a “family”, and family being important to a “patient’s treatment and rehabilitation”.

“January 5th 1995 I was relieved to hear that they were together. Family members are crucial to the patient's treatment and rehabilitation. The patient’s (dirty) condition is unique, and it is important to avoid triggering memories of their life, which may lead to personality reconstruction. The good news is that hallucinations and delusions are almost non-existent, so a peaceful life is enough to maintain stability. There are times when I wonder about the reliability of this method, as there are unconscious negative factors at work beyond the mutual motivation. Some necessary isolation may be required.”

The mention of “rehabilitation” also came up during the “activity record” of the event where Qin Yiying was listed as a participant and Ling Bingsen was a volunteer. During this event, it mentioned a “professional lecture” that was to discuss “psychiatric rehabilitation”.

“Activity Record: Date: 1994.7.15 Location: Library Conference Room Participants: (unsure of translation here?): Li Weidong, Zhang Hong, Yu Qiuying, Qin Yiying, Zhou Hao, Wang Quangen, Sun Yan, Zhang Wei Volunteers: Zhao Tongshu, Liu Bingsen - Professional lecture "Talking about the key points of psychiatric rehabilitation training" - Self-introduction and psychological development of new members. - Patient and family experience exchange.”

Therefore, we can deduce that Qi Yiying is the one seeking “revenge” on Liu Bingsen, who she’s monitoring for “suspicious behavior”.

The mention of a “professional lecture” makes me think of a note we found while searching the bookcase in the old man with the cap’s home. This letter was addressed to a “professor” about someone’s “wife” being abnormal, going to meet the “professor” after some event, and asking he not tell anyone of their meeting. Considering where we found this note, the “professor” is likely the old man with the cap (the 1 we saw a photo of), and based on his title, he could’ve been the one giving the “professional lecture”. The author of this note with the “wife” should be Liu Bingsen. This old man may also be the author of the January 1st 1995 note (which mentioned “rehabilitation”). Liu Bingsen saying his wife was “abnormal” may have been when he realized his wife suffered from mental illness.

“Professor, I think my wife is a little abnormal, I will go to you after the event today to talk about it, please don’t tell anyone.”

The mother mentioned this old man frequently looking out from his window. This may be important as there were pages (maybe from the notebook with the torn-out pages Dadong had) that talked about a man with a cap handing the author a ticket from a window, and comments on music being a good way to relax and potentially able to help the illness(?).

Another of these pages from the torn notebook talked about a trip to Hong Kong, people with problems in their genes, and integrating them into normal society.

The ticket referenced should be for the Concert Hall (the same one we found torn in half in the notebook the Detective and mother found in the safe in the old man with the cap’s home). This would tie to how the mother says she’s been to the theater before, as well as to a page dated October 16th 1998, which mentions coming back from a concert, and her husband earning a lot of money, but always being busy. It also talked about him always going on business trips to Hong Kong and some kind of research.

“October 16th 1998 I just came back from the concert in the evening. My family has been doing well lately. Although my spouse is busy, he’s earning a lot of money, which seems to be much better that before. But there are always regrets in life. For example, today, the phone called him away so I had to stay and watching it all by myself. Even so, careers and children are all part of life, and I can understand that. But I still find it strange, overtime work is fine, but why is it always a business trip to Hong Kong when it’s so expensive. What kind of research is it?”

The reason for these trips to Hong Kong and the “research” he’s doing should relate to how that 1 page we brought up which also mentioned trips to Hong Kong. Based on what we know, it seems his trips to Hong Kong involved his membership in the “Patient Support Group”(?) group, which we know he got an invitation to.

“Invitation card: Dr. Liu, We are pleased to inform you that your application has been approved and you are welcome to join us. I also like to invite you to a meeting in (blacked out) in 3 days. We look forward to working with you soon. Best regards (signature illegible)”

This group was mentioned in a poster the Detective found, where they describe themselves as:

“Poster for the Patient Support Group(?) We are a voluntary, academic, non-profit social organization formed and registered by medical professionals and caring citizens in the city. As the city's first mutual aid society for patients with mental illness, ‘We Walk’ and its predecessors have a history of more than 27 years, and through the continuous exchange of information and the sharing of an excellent mutual aid platform... ‘We Walk’ has grown to become a platform for patients to exchange information and share their experiences.”

They are likely also the ones behind 1 of the flyers the Detective’s friend found, which talked about “defective” people and ensuring the world’s “limited resources” are “put to good use”:

“The world is already overburdened because we have rejected the cruel laws of nature. If we do not make up our minds to remove those burdens, one day we will lose everything. People should unite to cleanse the world of unqualified remnants (?), just like removing the demons hidden in the crowd. Only then will the limited precious resources be put to good use. The value of those defective products (or remnants?) only exists in sacrifice. Come and join us in our fight for a better world.”

The Detective’s friend found another flyer at the same time as this one:

“No one should know… no no no no no! Did he come back again? It’s impossible, I saw it with my own eyes… with my own eyes… I hate that, I don’t want … I don’t want to go back but no one can help me, help me, help me…”

That note is written similarly to another document we find when searching the torn notebook the mom found in Dadong’s belongings:

“She’s gone…finally…finally… Out the door turn to the left, turn left… turn left It’s the direction of the subway station… The car… car… should be gone. There’s blood all over, blood all over, blood all over! It’s hard, hard, hard to remove… It’s not as bad as his clothes… and hat. All of them are brownish yellow brownish yellow Even if you rub it, you can’t see it. It must’ve been intentional, intentional, intentional Don’t come back, don’t come back, don’t come back Disappear forever, She should have disappeared with him long ago.”

Considering the mention of a car and blood (and he mentions a male and female), this should be referring to the car accident that killed Qin Yiying’s husband and daughter, Liu Bingsen and Liu Lingjing. As we found this in Dadong’s notebook, and based on how the message is written combined with knowledge that Xiao Dadong also suffered from mental illness (he was who the patient record was talking about back when the Detective was trying to find what hospital Dadong was from), these 2 documents should’ve been written by Xiao Dadong, as it also fits with how the daughter talks about him in her diary. This implies Xiao Dadong saw the car accident. It also tells us he’s colorblind considering he describes blood instead as brownish-yellow.

Considering we know Liu Bingsen was a doctor based on the information the Detective’s friend found about the mother, as well as how the Detective says all the locations (including the hospital) that he visited with the mother are tied to her, combined with what Dadong says, the hospital Dadong was from may have been where Liu Bingsen used to work before he died. So it’s possible 1 of the people Dadong was afraid of was Liu Bingsen, though we know from the diary that Dadong was also very afraid of the old man with the cap. It’s possible the old man with the cap tortured Xiao Dadong.

“There is very little information that can be found about her. Out of touch with the times. Doesn’t exist on any social media platforms. Ordinary middle-aged woman. I haven't been able to find where she lives with her daughter. I found her name on the old Catholic Church website, which she seems to have joined in the early years. In addition, she had her wedding at the church in 1995 through friends in the church. But the parishioners won’t reveal more information. But I found most curious is that her husband (Liu Bingsen) is said to have been a doctor before he died, but no information about his profession has been found in the public domain. Even if he had left his job before he died, this is very abnormal. I’ll let you know if I find anything new”

Liu Bingsen was likely the author of Research Fragment (5), which talked about the “organization” being new, but the work being surprisingly easy. In that note, he continued by saying “no one in the hospital suspected me”, how the “abandoned ones” trusted him easily, and it being easy to package samples and adjust dosages to bypass inspections.

“Research Fragment (5) The organization's network in China is still new, but to my surprise, the initial work was very easy. First of all, no one in the hospital suspected me, and all my actions did not go beyond the normal treatment. The subjects trusted me, especially the abandoned ones who had no relatives, and they had more potential. Secondly, because of the technical limitations, it was easy to package the samples properly, adjust the dosage of the drugs, and bypass the limited inspection. But I think I'm going to need a helping hand.”

We know from the information we received from ***** (as well as that 1 flyer the Detective’s friend found) that this group is related to discrimination, extremism, and wants to get rid of “defective people”.

“Extremism and hate crimes Extremist ideologies exist in all stages of human history. Equal and peaceful societies are not the historical norm; rather, this precarious balance is easily disrupted in my opinion. With the exception of the occasional extremist group that has exerted great political influence throughout history based on specific historical circumstances (ex: the Nazi Party), more extremist groups are hidden, small, and localized, although this miniaturization does not affect their dangerousness. In English, there is the term ‘hate group’, and similar groups are tracked in the United States by the FBI and even the post-9/11 Department of Homeland Security because of their rightist extremist ideology. Discrimination based on race, gender, or health status, whether religious or not, is condemned and stigmatized in civilized societies, but that does not mean the world works the way good people expect it to. Organized crime against vulnerable groups is one of the main vices of extremist groups. A case in point is the infamous Ku Klux Klan in the United States, which was born in the southern United States in the second half of the 19th century, committed many crimes against people of color and civil rights advocates. It was not until the passage of the Civil Rights Act in the 1960s that racial equality became the mainstream of public consciousness and white supremacists lost their mainstream existence and went underground for sporadic activity. After studying some of the alarming cases of organized crime perpetrated by hate groups, my fear grew of the darker parts of human history. This fear is not because humanity ‘have’ a sinful history, but because extremism and discrimination and hatred seem to be written into the DNA of some people, and this still seems to be happening today.”

Then there was the notes that talked about trafficking goods. Based on the mention of corruption of the soul, abnormal state of mind, going through a process, donors/donations, food requirements, storage and refrigeration, not to mention Liu Bingsen being a doctor, he may have been trafficking things like human body parts or organs or something, with the “donors” being from the so-called “inferior” or “defective” people.

“Older Files (3) The goods are in excellent condition. There are many requirements that need to be fulfilled. First is a good physical examination, although they have been corrupted in the soul and do not have a normal state of mind, but as long as they have …gone through the process, many goods still have a high value. Second is to ensure the health and survival of the donation(?). For this reason, in the preparation stage… food is required, which is not difficult for most subjects. Third is storage. There must be qualified refrigeration equipment, which… nowadays, requires not only space, but a lot of electricity, which must be financially supported in order to continue and… because the developer is closing down, it will soon become unusable, and the electricity consumption will be very abrupt. Fourth is…”

This likely relates to the reason why he makes so many “business trips” to Hong Kong, which would fit with the one document that talked about an increase of criminal activity there.

“Hong Kong has a well-developed financial system and shipping industry, and this has not fundamentally changed even after the reunification. On the contrary, due to the increasingly close ties with the mainland, many mainland criminals have taken advantage of this to commit crimes such as money laundering and smuggling. Although these crimes are punishable by law wherever they are committed, the high degree of ‘freedom’ there clearly helps many criminals. It is even possible to evade prosecution if you can pay for expensive legal services, even if you are caught. What a beautiful word ‘freedom’ is, but how many crimes are committed in your name.”

Going back to the daughter’ s diary, it seems like an organization or someone may have wanted her to find the truth, as her impression of her father seemed to have changed after she found something, which likely included info about that group and the invitation her father received. The daughter comments on the truth of her father in her diary when makes a comparison to Leo Beck and talks about good and bad guys, and why they do the bad things they do.

Based on the “Research Fragments” we received (which Liu Bingsen is likely the author of), it seems like he agreed with the organization’s ideas, way of thinking, purpose, and goal. Research Fragments 2-4 make this evident.

“Research Fragments (2) There are many views that attribute the prevalence of witch hunting to clerifcal control and cultural obscurantism, but I find it difficult to get to the root of the problem. In my view, the ‘witch hunt’ essentially reflects a struggle for living space with limited resources, and the ‘witch’ is considered to be the face of evil, which is extremely dangerous for normal human beings, and the need for normal human beings to fight back in order to secure their rights is the underlying consensus in this movement. Therefore, I believe that when the witch-hunting movement ‘waned’ and shifted to a few elites, the movement really took the right path, that is, normal people needed to be held to the right standards, to weed out the deviants who were crowding society’s resources and to ensure the purity of society.”

“Research Fragments (3) And those individuals who do not qualify as normal people are better off giving up their precious resources. I couldn't agree more. After carefully reading the information on their website, I was impressed by their patience and professionalism. In the long run, they have not only formed an effective and secure organization, but also ensured the consistency of their activities through a strict selection and inheritance system. It is also remarkable that they have developed their own theoretical system in response to the modern wave of technological development, which has made it possible to identify the condemned in a more detailed and effective way. The criteria and process of identification are fully in line with my professional knowledge and have even inspired me.”

“Research Fragments (4) After detailed research and reflection, I decided to go in person and meet with the person who signed the letter. I believe that this process will be very interesting. On the one hand, I will finally be able to find the value of my own existence in this broken world and to use what I have learned, and on the other hand, they will be able to open up new horizons for themselves in the East of the world. I can't wait to serve the betterment of humanity and embrace a new future.”

It was after he joined them that he began to get involved in shady dealings and criminal acts (as we saw in Research Fragment 5). It’s why he commented on no one at his hospital suspecting him. Xiao Dadong was likely one of the people the (and potentially the “professor” as well) affected, which would explain what Dadong said in his messages (as well as maybe why he’d want to escape from the hospital).