#$mo

[dragonflycap]

4 Trade Ideas for Altria: Bonus Idea

Altria, $MO, comes into the week rounding up out of a pullback with the Bollinger Bands® pointing higher. It has a RSI rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and climbing. A Measured Move would give a target to 59.75 on this leg. There is resistance at 55 and 56.50 then 58 before 60 and 63. Support lower is at 53.75 and 52.50. Short interest is low at 1.9%. The stock pays a dividend with an annual yield of 7.41% and has traded ex-dividend since December 26th.

The company is expected to report earnings next on April 29th. The March options chain shows the biggest open interest at the 50 strike on the put side and at 55 and 50 on the call side. In the April chain trading is just starting with little open interest. The June chain is the first to cover the earnings report. It has open interest spread from 55 to 32.50, biggest at 47.50 and 50, on the put side, and from 40 to 60, biggest at 55, on the call side.

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 55.30 with a stop at 52.50.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock on a move over 55.30 and add a March 52.50 Put (35 cents) while selling the March 57.50 Call (32 cents).

Trade Idea 3: Buy the April/June 57.50 Call Calendar (95 cents) while selling the June 50 Put (82 cents).

Trade Idea 4: Buy the June 50/57.50/60 Call Spread Risk Reversal (1 cent credit).

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using this Get Premium link.   

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the February options expiration in the books, saw equity markets show some cracks at the end of the week following a strong open post-holiday.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates in a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the downside, testing prior breakout levels, while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue higher in broad consolidation while Emerging Markets continue a short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low but moving higher, putting some pressure on equity markets. The charts of both the QQQ and SPY look strong on the longer timeframe, but much less so on the shorter timeframe. The IWM continues move in a range under resistance after what now looks like a failed break out in November. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Tuesday: ADP, CME, Graco, MetLife and Altria

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Automatic Data Processing, Ticker: $ADP

Automatic Data Processing, $ADP, comes into the week pressing against resistance. it has a RSI rising at the midline with the MACD crossed up but negative. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

CME Group, Ticker: $CME

CME Group, $CME, comes into the week testing resistance. It has a RSI strong in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Graco, Ticker: $GGG

Graco, $GGG, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

MetLife, Ticker: $MET

MetLife, $MET, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI moving higher with the MACD positive and rising. Look for a break of resistance to participate…..

Altria, Ticker: $MO

Altria, $MO, comes into the week at resistance. it has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using this Get Premium link.  

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the February options expiration in the books, saw equity markets showing resilience holding up well despite an onslaught of negative inflation news and shifting narrative to further FOMC tightening.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its short term pullback while Crude Oil consolidates in a tight range. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the upside in the downtrend while US Treasuries continue a short term downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the pullback in consolidation while Emerging Markets pullback in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain normal and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe holding in consolidation after making higher highs. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY are holding over support while the IWM has started to move higher out of a bull flag. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[dragonflycap]

4 Trade Ideas for Altria: Bonus Idea

Altria, $MO, rose from a low in November to make a double top into April. It then retraced 38.2% of the move and found support later that month. Since then, it reversed to a lower high and then fell back again. It has been riding rising trend support since and ended last week breaking a short term channel to the upside. Above sits the May/June plateau and then the March high. If price can get above that a major long term reversal is triggered as it would print a higher high after a higher low, ending a 4 year downtrend. 

The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and moving higher. Momentum has been leading price. The move Friday closed the June gap down and opened the Bollinger Bands® for more upside potential. There is resistance higher at 50.70 and 52.50. Then we go back to 2019 to find it at 53 and 54.60 before 57 and 58. Support lower comes at 49 and 47.80 then 47 and 46.20. Short interest is low under 1%. The stock pays a dividend with an annual yield of 7.27%(!!!) and it starts trading ex-dividend on September 14th. The company is expected to report earnings next on October 28th. 

The September options chain shows the open interest on the put side building from 55 down to a peak at 45 then tailing to 40. On the call side it is focused and very large at the 50 strike. The October chain has much less open interest but what there is can be found at the 47.50 put and the 50 call strikes. On the December chain the open interest is focused from 47.50 to 45 on the put side and much bigger at 50 on the call side with size at 60 as well.

Altria, Ticker: $MO

Trade Idea 1: By the stock on a move over 49.75 with a stop at 48.

Trade Idea 2: By the stock on a move over 49.75 and add an October 47.50/45 Put Spread (50 cents) while selling the December 55 Call (36 cents).

Trade Idea 3: By the December 50/October 52.50 Call Diagonal ($1.50) and sell the October 45 Put (35 cents).

Trade Idea 4: By the stock on a move over 49.75 and sell the September 51 Call (21 cents).

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using this Get Premium link.  

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. This week’s list contains the first five below to get you started early.  These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the last full week of August in the books, saw equity markets showed strength with aggressive moves higher and all-time highs.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its push out of long term consolidation higher while Crude Oil may also be resuming the uptrend. The US Dollar Index looks on the edge of breaking the long downtrend the while US Treasuries pause in their uptrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in broad consolidation while Emerging Markets continue to be biased to move lower.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts also look strong, especially on the shorter timeframe where the IWM had a massive week. On the longer timeframe both the QQQ and SPY also look great while the IWM remains in the broad consolidation. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[dragonflycap]

4 Trade Ideas for Altria: Bonus Idea

Altria, $MO, has been in a downtrend since topping in June 2017. A series of lower highs and lower lows over nearly 2 years brought it to the March low. The bounce from there printed a lower high in April. But then something different happened. It fell back in May but held at a higher low and reversed. It is now moving higher and at prior resistance. This could turn into a broad bottoming pattern, running sideways. Or a break of resistance could also lead to a trend reversal to the upside. 

The RSI is strong in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. The Bollinger Bands® are also pointing higher. There is resistance above at 42.25 and 44, right by the 61.8% retracement of the last leg down and the 200 day SMA, then 45 and 46.15 before 49 and 50.35 then 51.75. Over 51.75 would confirm the trend reversal. Support lower comes at 41.25 and 40.40 then 37.35 and 35.70. Short interest is low under 1%. The stock pays a dividend with an annualized rate of 8.02%. The stock begins to trade ex-dividend on June 12th. The company is expected to report earnings next on July 28th. 

The June options chain shows the biggest open interest at the 45 and 32.50 strikes on the put side, but large size at every $2.50 increment. On the call side it is biggest at 45 then 40, but also has good size every $2.50. July options have biggest open interest at the 37.50 and 35 put strikes and double that at the 40 call strike. The September options are the first to cover the next earnings report. They have the biggest open interest from 35 to 40 on the put side, but the 40 call has as much open interest as those 3 strikes combined.

Altria, Ticker: $MO

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 42.25 with a stop at 41.15.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock on a move over 42.25 and add a June 41.50/40 Put Spread ($0.98) while selling the September 45 Call (93 cents).

Trade Idea 3: Buy the June 42/45 Call Spread (65 cents) and sell the June 39.50 Put (27 cents).

Trade Idea 4: Buy the September 35/42.50/45 Call Spread Risk Reversal (20 cents).

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using this Get Premium link.  

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week.  These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which starting the month of June sees the equity markets showed renewed strength with significant moves higher.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its pullback while Crude Oil moves higher. The US Dollar Index continues to push to the downside while US Treasuries pullback as well. The Shanghai Composite looks to move higher in broad consolidation while Emerging Markets break to the upside.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to move lower putting a breeze at the back of the equity markets move to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the QQQ is also strong printing a new all-time high with the SPY and the IWM drawing up as well. All are getting a bit overheated and may pause in the short term though. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Boeing, DexCom, Fidelity National, Graco and Altria

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Boeing, Ticker: $BA

Boeing, $BA, stock price gapped down in March and has floundered since. Since the middle of October it has been rising though. And it closed last week moving over a short term resistance. The RSI is rising into the bullish zone with the MACD crossed up and positive. Look for continuation to participate…..

DexCom, Ticker: $DXCM

DexCom, $DXCM, had a failed break out in August before falling back into a long sideways channel. It finally broke the channel for good at the start of November and has been consolidating the move. The RSI is strong and a bit over bought but running flat with the MACD rising. Look for a second push to participate…..

Fidelity National Information Services, Ticker: $FIS

Fidelity National Information Services, $FIS, started higher in December and kept going to a top in September. Since then it has pulled back and found support in October. Now it is breaking over prior resistance with a RSI rising into the bullish zone and the MACD positive and climbing. Look for continuation to participate…..

Graco, Ticker: $GGG

Graco, $GGG, rose from a bottom in December to peak in April. It pulled back in two steps from there, the second moving price under the 200 day SMA. It has held there consolidating since. Friday it moved over resistance with the RSI rising into the bullish zone and the MACD positive and moving higher. Look for continuation to participate…..

Altria, Ticker: $MO

Altria, $MO, started lower from a high in April. It continued for nearly 6 months before finding support at the end of September. Since then it moved higher, stalling at the August mini consolidation, and now pushing through Friday. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD flat but positive. Look for continuation to participate…..

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week.  These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with November options expiration in the books sees equity markets surging.

Elsewhere look for Gold to drift lower in consolidation while Crude Oil marks time moving sideways. The US Dollar Index is drifting to the upside while US Treasuries bounce in their pullback. The Shanghai Composite looks to drift down in consolidation while Emerging Markets remain in broad consolidation.

Volatility continues to remain very low keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. The SPY and QQQ look to continue the march higher while the IWM continues to churn in a wide consolidation at long term resistance. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[abrcapfinancial-blog]

#MO Earning declared EPS = 1.08 vs estimate= 1.07 for Q3/18 #sym #spy #earnings #markets

#MO Earning declared EPS = 1.08 vs estimate= 1.07 for Q3/18 #sym #spy #earnings #markets

Earning released for MO: Actual EPS = 1.08 per share Estimate = 1.07 per share

Get our earning updates on your mobile as soon as they are released

MO report:

The mean EPS over the last 16 releases is 1.1 per share. The current EPS at 1.08 per share is below the average EPS per share of the last 16 quaterly earning releases.

MO Stock Chart:

MO Scores:

MO Fundamental Score = Click…

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[valuentumbrian]

Chicago, Wings, Beer, Sports, and Smokes

Image Source: Kevin Dooley

These things seem to have a lot in common.

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By Brian Nelson, CFA

Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), the bar-and-grill giant that prides itself on serving a delicate balance of “wings, beer, and sports,” is back. Shares have been soaring as of late thanks in part to some strong institutional support--Marcato Capital now owns more than 5% of the company and is pushing for franchising growth—but also due to better visibility into why its operations haven’t been going “gangbusters,” as some may have described it in the past. Well, the answer appears to be rather straightforward, and it all falls squarely on the shoulders of the Windy City. Chicago? – that’s correct. Here is what B-dubs’ CEO Sally Smith said on the conference call (emphasis added):

“We're confident about our long-term opportunities while continuing to focus on the near-term sales environment. Same-store sales at company-owned Buffalo Wild Wings declined 2.1% in the second quarter impacted by industry and company-specific items. On the latter, for the second quarter, match-ups mattered in the NBA and NHL playoffs. The NBA finals between the Cavaliers and Golden State resulted in an incremental and exciting game seven. But it didn't offset the fact that the Chicago Blackhawks and the Chicago Bulls, who have a national following and reside in a strong Buffalo Wild Wings market, had 28 fewer playoff games compared to the prior year.”

If you like Buffalo Wild Wings, you almost have to be a Chicago fan these days. Fine by us – our offices are located just a couple hours northwest of the city. But even as Chicago sports have come up short this year, there are still lots of good things happening at B-dubs these days – takeout sales are gaining momentum, digital orders are growing nicely, and the company is making some nice strides with its Fast Break lunch program, where consumers get their food in 15 minutes or its free. Chicken wing prices are easing, and handhelds at the table are helping to stem rising labor costs. Comparable store sales remain under pressure, but we’re growing more and more confident the company will right the ship in time. Go Blackhawks and Bulls, apparently!

As for smokes, well that reference has to do with Altria (MO), another newsletter holding but one residing in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Altria’s shares have been nothing but "smoking hot," with the company breaching the $70 mark recently before pulling back of late. We didn’t see too much out of the ordinary in its second-quarter results, released July 27, except for perhaps greater pressure on volume than what might have been expected. First-half adjusted diluted earnings per share advanced more than 10%, and the company raised its full-year earnings guidance for the year, to the range of $3.01-$3.07! Altria is simply a dividend-paying powerhouse, and while we continue to monitor developments related to the SABMiller-AB-Inbev tie-up as a result of Brexit and currency (pound) dislocations, we like shares a lot. Shares still yield an impressive ~3.3% at lofty levels.

Interested in viewing Valuentum’s fair value estimates of Buffalo Wild Wings and Altria, consider becoming a member here. Thousands of 16-page stock reports available for download here.

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This article or report and any links within are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this article and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the article and are subject to change without notice. For more information about Valuentum and the products and services it offers, please contact us at [email protected].