#aboutmodeling

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Maybe all futures are implausible.

PaulS, modeling uncertainty

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It seems crazy in retrospect, but many macroeconomic models did not even include a financial sector!

Lisa Herzog, via Paulina's

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How to Get Technical with Models

[David P. Young from the Boeing Company shows how to write a “technical” comment.]

Modelers are rather clever and I believe they know the effect of their parameters and choices on important emergent properties like CS [climate sensitivity]. This is certainly true for turbulence models for example, where the effect of choices on important properties are well known to specialists. The real problem here is that there are only a finite set of parameters and a potentially almost limitless number of emergent properties.

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Auditing Powers

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(via xkcd: Epsilon and Zeta)

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It’s one thing to predict a falling vase will shatter, another to predict where the pieces will end up.

Michael Tobis, unshakenly pessimistic.

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Your invertebrate biology defies human understanding. So I was forced to devise a computer model of your hive-mind that produced a settled-science profile of your thinking (and NO! you can’t see my computer model’s code, data, or any of my e-mails relating to it) as a foundation for my response to you. Sadly, my computer model described your mono-maniac, parasite mental-reflexes in such noogie-magnet terms that I cannot share its results with you. I mean, like, to do so [..] would just send you scuttling back to the hive with tears streaming from your eye-stalks and with a desperate need for the comforting embrace of your hive-mates’ chitinous body-parts.

mike, in my favorite piece of mud throwing of all time.

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Model and Model