I (almost) have a masters degree in politics, and I cannot explain what in the name of God Iran was thinking when they attacked the Gulf states.
Let's be clear, Iran bombed:
Bahrain
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
That's huge. And so, so fucking dumb.
Iraq, if you didn't know, has been an Iranian ally, verging on an Iranian client state, since the end of the Iraq War. And they BOMBED them.
Oman has pursued a policy of 'friend to all, enemy to none' for like, decades by this point and as such, has very limited US military ties and relatively positive relations with Iran. And Iran BOMBED them.
Iran bombed more Arab states in the last 48 hours than Israel has in nearly 80 years.
Like, the Gulf states are stunned right now. Iran just undid 20 years of careful indirect maneuvering and gentleman's agreements and plausible deniability and semi-alliances in a day. Iran has collapsed decades of calibrated proxy strategy, unified the Gulf Cooperation Council, and triggered the largest interstate Middle Eastern war since 1991. Iran targeted hotels, airports, residential areas, and all kinds of civilian infrastructure in the Gulf.
I really don't know what the hell they were thinking. It's baffling to me. So baffling I've heard people theorizing Iran lost control of its military in the aftermath of the decapitation strike conducted by the US and Israel and Iranian military units just unloaded on the Gulf out of revenge.
The only stupider things Iran could do would be detonate a dirty bomb or attack Turkey and draw NATO into the conflict.
Basically, all this is to say, Iran's regime seems intent on burning down as many bridges as it can on its way out.
What's especially nuts to me is how preventable and self inflicted this is. You know what the Gulf states would probably be doing right now if Iran hadn't attacked them out of the blue? They'd probably decline to let the US use its bases and would be petitioning Washington and Jerusalem to negotiate and get a ceasefire going. Instead, now they're letting the US use their bases and shooting down Iranian drones and missiles.
All because Iran shot itself in the foot.
