#afldraft

[kardava]

Waiting for the #afldraft to start (at Hordern Pavilion)

[ashdau]

Paddy McCartin chats to the media at @CWSLive ahead of Thursday's #AFLDraft

[ashdau]

NAB #AFLDraft countdown is now live! Tune in on AFL.com.au and the app to hear from coaches, players and more

[ashdau]

No more nervous waiting. The boys are ready to get stuck into it! #AFLDraft

[afl-zone]

Ins and Outs

With the national and rookie drafts over, Sydney has finalised it's list for 2016 Ins: Callum Sinclair - Ruck (Trade) Michael Talia - Key Def (Trade) Callum Mills - Inside Mid (Draft) Tyrone Leonardis - Rebound Def (Draft) Jordan Dawson - Med Forward (Draft) Sam Murray - Attacking Mid (Rookie) Kyle Galloway - Ruck (Rookie) Tom Papley - Small Forward (Rookie) Colin O'Riordon - (International Rookie) Outs: Adam Goodes (Retired) Rhyce Shaw (Retired) Mike Pyke (Retired) Craig Bird (Trade) Lewis Jetta (Trade) Sean McLaren (Delisted) Lloyd Perris (Delisted)

[afl-zone]

O'Riordan becomes a Swan

The Swans have nabbed Irishman Colin O'Riodan as a Category B Rookie. Swans say that he has all the makings of an offensive midfielder much like Pearce Hanley from Brisbane

[hurlingpeoplenow]

Off-season review - North Melbourne

This is part of Hurling People Now’s ongoing series on the 2014 AFL Draft/Trade Period. To catch up with our methodology, check out our Draft Pick Trade Value Chart, our AFL Player Trade Value Formula and our Elite Player Value Formula.

In: Pick 25 (920 points)

Out: Levi Greenwood (693 points)

Likely picks: pick 16 (1020 points), pick 25 (920 points), pick 36 (830 points) = 2770 points

Free Agency impact: Jarrad Waite in (312 points), Shaun Higgins in (714 points) = 946 points (incl -80 points for lost draft pick value from compensation picks)

Father/Son or Academy pick value gained against market value: 0

Total off-season value: +1173 points (4th AFL)

Summary

North had a relatively quiet trade period, its only trade movement was acquiring pick 25 for Levi Greenwood. This was a trade we labelled a North Melbourne “win” with a big asterisk. Greenwood's massive improvement in 2014 is washed out in a three year average, but if sustained, would make him more valuable than we've predicted.

North also gained Shaun Higgins (714 points) and Jarrad Waite (312 pojnts) as free agents. Both could be handy pickups, but their values are reduced by injury and advanced age, respectively. Higgins is 26, but he only managed 3 games in 2013 due to a fractured navicular, with the resultant missed games reducing his value. In terms of expected games, the 31 year old, non-elite Waite has hit the average retirement age and so we've valued him at the 2-year length of his current contract.

All-in, North made some small moves to bolster deficiencies in their current list. They accommodated an emerging player's request to leave with minimal fuss, while extracting value from his destination club. As a team which made a preliminary final this year they will feel this was an acceptable off-season.

North have 5 list spots and have committed to upgrading Joel Tippett and Kayne Turner from the rookie list, leaving them 3 good picks at 16, 25 and 36.

[hurlingpeoplenow]

Dayne Beams is worth Pick 4 and not a lot more

This is part of Hurling People Now's ongoing series on the 2014 AFL Draft/Trade Period. To catch up with our methodology, check out our Draft Pick Trade Value Chart and our AFL Player Trade Value Formula.

Yesterday it was reported by AFL.com.au that Collingwood had rejected Brisbane's offer of pick 4 for Dayne Beams. But what is Dayne Beams really worth?

Dayne Beams' Value

Dayne Beams Player Value (AA) = (31-24) * (17) *(1.3) * (10) = 1547

Dayne Beams Player Value (BV) = (31-24) * (17) *(1.36) * (10) = 1618.4

Anaylsis

By most qualitative measures Dayne Beams is one of the best young players in the AFL. Over the last three years Beams has asserted himself as one of Collingwood best players, perhaps even the Pies second best after Scott Pendlebury. At the age of 20 he had already won a Grand Final, and by 22 was named to his first All-Australian team. For a player drafted at pick 29, his rise was meteoric.

This is reflected in his “elite loading”, with a large amount of value added to his value via his 2012 AA team appearance, and his 2014 AA squad selection. From the Brownlow, Beams has received 36 votes over the last three years, a monstrous amount considering the number of games he has missed.

Injuries, however, have cruelled his chances at being truly elite. Over the last three years he has missed 19 games, or 27% of all games played over that time. Beams has only managed more than 20 matches in two of his six AFL seasons, and never (to date) played all of his teams games across a given season. When you're searching for red flags for a potentially great player, this is a very large one.

There is no guarantee that Beams' injury struggles will continue into the future, however the specter of the medical room shouldn't be disregarded from his profile. A typical Pies fan post on Beams always suggests how good he could be if he finally got over his injuries. Brisbane would be smart to consider this type of sentiment when considering what to give up for Beams.

What would a fair trade for Dayne Beams be?

At the moment only Brisbane are in the market for Beams, so will limit this discussion to only resources that they have. At 1618.4 points, Dayne Beams is worth somewhere in between Pick 4 (1750 points)and Pick 5 (1600 points). Either one of these picks should provide an equivalent value for Beams over the next decade or so for Collingwood.

If Collingwood is determined to receive more value for Beams than just pick 4/5 alone, a swap of the Lions second rounder (pick 24, 930 points) and the Pies third rounder (pick 45, 725 points) might further tip the scales in the favour of the Pies, giving them an extra 205 points of value. This would place the trade within the 25% “fair trade” tolerance.

If the Pies are determined to get an a player from the Lions in addition to pick 4/5, someone like Daniel Merrett (worth 413.7 points) might get the deal done, given Merrett's search for a new club anyway. This would tip the trade well in the Pies favour, but still just within the “fair trade” zone (2013 points to 1618 points).

What wouldn't be reasonable would be a trade for any of the Lions top players, such as Hanley, Rockliff or Aish. With any of these inclusions, the Lions would be getting robbed blindly by the Pies.

It must also be remembered the Beams is entering the last year of his contract with Collingwood, with the potential that he walks away from Victoria Park without any compensation for the Pies. This removes some, but not all, of the leverage that the Pies have in these negotiations.

Conclusion

The fairest possible trade for Beams is directly for Brisbane's Pick 4/5.

If Collingwood want more, an addition of Brisbane's Pick 24 for Collingwood's Pick 45 would still provide a fair result for both sides. Or, if Collingwood want a player instead, Brissy shouldn't hesitate to throw in someone like Daniel Merrett. Brisbane shouldn't, under any circumstances, offer up Hanley, Rockliff or Aish.

C.