Let's finish with Lukashenko and the russian attack on a bus carrying Belaruthian children in the Bryansk region.
On June 12, russia's "first lady," Alexander Lukashenko, gave an interview to Al Arabiya (published on June 15).
Afterward, comments sympathetic to the Minsk ruler began circulating in the Ukrainian public sphere.
The argument goes: we need to listen to him, embrace him, and give him a status in a future settlement. After all, Lukashenko is supposedly our potential voice at Trump's table and can supposedly put in a good word for us in China!
Even some of the usual Belarus experts distinguished themselves with this line of thinking.
I want to ask: guys, what's wrong with you? Seriously? Or have you eaten too many potato pancakes?
Let's examine this in context.
The interview in question is known in Ukraine mainly through a short quote in which Lukashenko supposedly apologizes to Zelensky for his rude remarks.
I advise anyone who wants to see the full picture to watch the entire conversation. It will cost you an hour of your life, but it will cure you of your illusions.
Lukashenko is a slippery, evasive ghoul who has absolutely no shame about lying and saying mutually contradictory things within a span of minutes. Different audiences can therefore hear whatever they want to hear.
The Al Arabiya interview (the channel moved from the UAE to Saudi Arabia) was aimed at a specific audience. As a result, a significant part of Lukashenko's monologue was anti-Israeli and pro-Iranian propaganda (Israel has already expressed objections).
On the Ukrainian issue, Lukashenko praises himself and repeats every single (!) russian talking point to his Arab audience.
According to him, it is Ukraine that attacks civilians and destroys cultural monuments, not russia. According to him, russian troops had already reached Kyiv, but Putin wanted peace and agreed to withdraw, only to be deceived by the Vatican and the Jews. According to him, russia is now winning, albeit more slowly than desired. Therefore, russia, Belarus, and Ukraine should sit down together — without any mediators — and reach an agreement.
At the same time, Lukashenko insists that Belarus poses no threat to Ukraine and never could. In other words, he repeats exactly what he said in January and February 2022. Word for word.
After pouring dirt on Ukraine and personally denouncing Zelensky, Lukashenko offers an apology along the lines of: "What, are you offended? Well, sorry then!" This kolhoz-like trick is so worn out by now that it is odd anyone still reacts to it.
For those who melted under Hryhorovych's charisma, let me remind you what Lukashenko left unsaid:
The Lukashenko regime is part of the Union State and is twice over an official military ally of russia (through both the Union State and the CSTO).
Belarus's military-industrial complex is fully integrated into supporting the russian army; they manufacture equipment that kills Ukrainians.
Minsk actively assists russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine by providing communications and relay support.
Belarus supplies russia with fuel from its two refineries.
Launch sites for Shahed drones are being prepared in Belarus.
Lukashenko avoids full-scale escalation against Ukraine not out of brotherly love but because he understands what it would mean for him and his entourage.
2. I do not call Lukashenko russia's first lady for nothing. He performs high-level representative functions for Putin and, when necessary, provides the bunker rat with an alibi (staged phone calls, fake meetings, prerecorded video appearances, and so on).
He is an inseparable part of the regime — the left hand or right leg of Putin, if you prefer.
A right hand or left leg has no free will. But when it is shoved into a fire, it may reflexively jerk away from danger. That is exactly what we are observing now.
One striking thing in the interview is that Lukashenko's head trembles like that of an old man. Signs of poor health are becoming visible. This inevitably starts a discussion — still hidden for now — about replacing him. Hence, perhaps, the recent aggressive promotion of stories about a new young mistress.
What interests Lukashenko most is physical survival and the survival of his offspring, while preserving a comfortable status.
To achieve this, he needs to assemble a pool of guarantors. Ukraine must be among them.
Because in Ukraine nothing has been forgotten and nothing has been forgiven.
Neither Putin, nor China, nor the United States can personally protect Lukashenko from Ukraine, no matter how much he squirms. Therefore, he is highly interested in creating some arrangement that avoids irritating moscow while formally making him useful to Ukraine. For this purpose, he may even stage minor acts of defiance toward the kremlin.
But he is of no use to Ukraine. He had opportunities, but he wasted them. Now something much greater than rhetoric would be required.
Recently, he has repeatedly demonstrated complete loyalty to the kremlin. So why grant him any special status? Grant status to putin's right hand or left leg and negotiate with it? Absurd.
3. Events in russia suggest that at least part of the regime's pillars have launched a program of "closing ranks around the throne." Not even around the tsar himself (who is losing his grip on reality and missing his targets), but around the throne as a symbol of power. In this context, all disloyal or overly flexible figures are subject to discipline.
Lukashenko is being pushed toward confrontation with Ukraine, and he is scared.
In June there was a whole series of minor incidents in which russian officers and other officials in Belarus were denied access somewhere or faced complaints for formal reasons. For example, the head of a russian medical train was accused of illegal trade in medicines and narcotics. This is the kind of audacity with which Lukashenko periodically measures the length of his leash.
Therefore, the russian drone strike on a bus carrying Belaruthian children served, on the one hand, as a lesson so that Lukashenko would not think too highly of himself. On the other hand, it directly restricts his room for maneuver and pushes him toward concrete actions against Ukraine.
On June 17, Lukashenko remained silent while russians whipped up hysteria designed to lead Minsk toward taking some drastic step.
But Ukraine's successful attack on the moscow Oil Refinery effectively saved Lukashenko by preserving his room for maneuver. Under such circumstances, it became inconvenient for the kremlin to pressure him.
As a result, today, during a meeting with military officials, Lukashenko presented a position that leaves room for de-escalation:
"We are not rushing to conclusions, but we clearly establish the fact that this was a drone of Ukrainian origin. It is a Ukrainian drone." In other words, "we are not yet claiming that Ukraine carried out the strike".
There are "many conspiracy theories" — including a provocation intended to drag Belarus into the war, even including the possibility of an attack from the russian side.
He instructed Belorussian Security Council State Secretary Alexander Volfovich to establish the truth.
Thus, Lukashenko did not fully accept the russian interpretation and is now trying to play this situation to his advantage.
He mentions that the bus driver saw several drones, one of which allegedly struck. Now the matter must be investigated, naturally with russian assistance, but also after requesting Ukraine's position.
Verbal escalation was delegated to the Belorussian parliament, which issued an anti-Ukrainian statement in the same tone as russia.
Lukashenko himself urged Belaruthians to "stay home" during "this period" and avoid traveling to dangerous russian regions unless absolutely necessary — especially not with children's groups. He also called for state supervision of such trips.
This is the key signal: Lukashenko understands that russia attacked those children and will do it again to back him into a corner.
4. At this point I intended to draw some parallels with the arrest in russia of the influential St. Petersburg businessman Ilya Traber. But I will not go into detail. Specialists have already written about his informal status within russia's political and business elite, as well as his knowledge of the inner workings of putin's rise in the 1980s and 1990s.
Incidentally, Traber spent a year and a half (from late 2022 to June 2024) exporting Belaruthian fertilizers through the facilities of the Baltic Ship Mechanical Plant in St. Petersburg, which he established "at the request" of partners in the interests of Belarus. Later, however, the partnership with Belaruskali collapsed.
What matters here is that Traber, like Lukashenko, belonged to the circle of untouchable people. Suddenly, he became touchable. Naturally, defenses have already been activated, but the impression remains. And it sounds like an alarm bell.
Lukashenko is in the same delicate position. The Traber incident indicates that the Minsk ruler cannot permit himself any real independence from moscow. He would be brought into line immediately, even removed if necessary.
Therefore, only one approach toward Lukashenko is possible at this stage. He should be made to understand that the safest place for him is a Ukrainian prison. And only active repentance before formal charges are brought may soften his fate.
