Hi, Butterfly! I hope this hasn’t been asked before: what would have happened if Robert had found out on his own about Jon being Rhaegar’s (noticing something that could have given Ned away, doing some research with the Tower of Joy, dream revelation, whatever)? Let’s say this happens after Balon’s Rebellion, in the middle of his peaceful reign, when he’s thankful to Ned… would he have ran to Winterfell asking for Jon’s head? Do you think that Ned could have talked him out of this idea? Thank you!
Hmm, I don’t think anyone’s asked anything quite like this before, so... well, Ned’s always been pretty damn careful, and Robert isn’t exactly the most perceptive person in the world, so I’m going to have to assume he finds out about Jon’s parentage in a dream. (He’s 1/4 Targ, it could happen.) So, a few months after the Greyjoy Rebellion, he wakes up, filled with fury... and because Robert isn’t exactly the most subtle person in the world, either, he goes roaring down the Red Keep corridors until he finds Jon Arryn and starts shouting at him about Ned’s treachery and the dragonspawn nesting at Winterfell. But Jon Arryn, who is subtle and has a strong interest in keeping Westeros peaceful, talks Robert down from his anger. (Along with asking him if he was sure, it was a dream after all, but Robert responds with shouts and sobs (about Ned, about Lyanna) and certainty.)
And, well, this gets very fanficcy, so under a cut it goes:
So, instead of Robert forming up a battalion to attack Winterfell right away, or penning a furious raven message with demands for Ned’s head and Jon’s head (Jon Arryn asks, like what the Mad King sent to me about you and Ned? and Robert’s like “no! well... yes. well... no. oh, Ned, *sob*”), Jon Arryn instead sends a message to Ned saying he’s coming to Winterfell to resolve some curious questions that have come to the attention of the king. And once everything is resolved (if Jon Arryn could talk the Martells down after Elia’s murder, I’m sure he can do anything), nobody gets executed, and nothing major becomes public -- however, Jon Snow is either sent to the Wall right away, or it becomes known that he’s promised to the Night’s Watch. (Since he’s only about 6, and nobody in the NW wants to take care of a kid that young, and Benjen has other duties... hmm, except maybe Mance Rayder if he hasn’t deserted yet? as he was an NW orphan himself... oh, this could be a weird AU.) And Ned may have to perform some reparations -- I’d think Theon would be taken away from his guardianship (almost certainly sent to KL to be a hostage there), and possibly one of his sons is/will be taken to KL as a squire/ward/hostage? That would only be Robb, at this date, but maybe the heir’s too much, maybe it would be a-son-who’s-born-later. (Bran, iow.) But the relationship between Robert and Ned is never as it was, and when Jon Arryn eventually dies, Ned is not tapped to be the new Hand, nor is any Stark/Baratheon betrothal ever made.
However... because Robert was so loud about the info when he first found out... Cersei knows. (Which means Jaime knows, and Tywin knows.) And Lysa knows. (Which means Littlefinger knows, even though he hasn’t come to KL yet.) And of course Varys knows. So, even though Jon’s Targaryen heritage isn’t public, nor is there ever a public statement that the Starks are on the outs with the king... Cersei never lets it die, constantly needling Robert about it. And with the cutoff of his perfect wife fantasies about Lyanna, you think the Lannister influence in the original timeline was bad, oh it gets so much worse here. What this does when Stannis starts investigating the incest, I’m not sure... not sure if it skews the timeline of when it happens... Actually, I’m wondering if Cersei realizes Robert can have true dreams revealing deep secrets, maaaybe she stops messing about with Jaime? (This would be right before Myrcella’s born.) Or, hmm... rather, maybe she starts her plan to knock off Robert a lot earlier than in OTL, and sets up Ned to take the fall timed with a public reveal of his supposed pro-Targ treachery? That could happen at a point when Ned is in KL delivering Bran as that squire/hostage mentioned earlier... perhaps through a reconciliation with Robert that goes wrong, deliberately tweaked by the game-players...
Anyway. Some major changes in the Stark family because of this revelation: the relationship between Jon and his siblings is more distant, if he knows he’s not actually their half-brother and/or always knows he’s destined for the Wall and/or goes there at age 6. (Poor Arya here, seriously.) OTOH Jon knowing his parentage means his inferiority complex isn’t quite so bad, but I can see him being a much angrier person in general. (Is Jon closer to Aemon? Or angry at him because his Targ heritage is what tore him away from his real family? hmm.) Cat’s relationship with Ned takes a big hit because of the reveal of his lies, but it does bounce back quickly since her fear of Jon supplanting her children is no longer an open wound. And Ned... Ned’s no longer living with lies, nor pathologically protecting his kids from everything... but has a lot more regrets instead, and perhaps there’s a certain distrust of the Baratheons that builds up in the family, more of Starks c. the New Gift kind of relationship with the crown. So more Northern alliances worked on, probably leading to Robb and Sansa being betrothed early, at the very least.
Some others: Theon being absent tweaks a few things... primarily re his relationship with Robb, also him growing up in a Lannister-heavy KL does nothing good for his personality. As for Varys, well, knowing about a bastard Targ up north doesn’t really change his plans much... except perhaps slotting Jon into a potential war front for his true Targ/actual Blackfyre perfect prince Aegon to fight against. But if there is a big public reveal arranged by Cersei, then Barristan will have news to tell Dany when he comes to her. Not that this changes her track that much, considering, until she gets to Westeros.
So, well... this isn’t a bad timeline, but it is a very odd one. That is, most of the history should be fairly similar, but the shift in relationships and revelations means that personalities will be what’s wildly different from OTL. But if Jon’s at the Wall still, then he’s still key for saving the world from the Others... it’s just Bran, who doesn’t fall (and may be the hostage in KL during the war) whose save-the-world destiny goes in an extremely different way. (Which may mean no direwolves, unless someone else gets to be the new last greenseer? maybe Arya?) Well. Anyway. I don’t plan on actually writing this, certainly not to the depth of the books, so I’ll have to leave off the Tale of Robert the Dreamer (and what happened next), but I hope you enjoyed this exploration of the possible consequences. :)
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