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Alpha Play Forex Market Analysis [9th - 13th January 2017]
[Music] hi guys welcome back to this new year of 2017 right now with the missing and producing such videos and updates for you guys over the past three weeks I supposed to write sins are the late of December and to the first week of January but little that we are back right now right are sharing with you on the weekly basis know what are our insight into the mark and some of the potential said upset you might also take if it fits your trading plan right so for those who are new and of course you know you stumble upon this video would like to welcome you my name is calm and I'm currently riding alpha play frustrating school or you know as a coach as well as a traitor so what we do over here is on the weekly basis I will be recording such videos to share view my personal insights and are certain opportunities that man i'm paying a close attention to in in the forex market and hopefully you don't you'll be able to gain some insight and perspective from us s bar right and for those are then following us sometime I'll wish you a happy new year and would be a great year for all of us all right so let's dive down into the forex market and take a look as to what is some of the focus for this particular week and for the remaining three days for this particular week what can we trade off in the market alright so let's take a look all right this week our news weiss risk events wise is relatively quiet as compared to last week and of course next week as well but we do have some important data that you need to take note off right today is wednesday UK will be in the limelight because we have manufacturing production later on as well as a boe governor Carney will be speaking right later part of the day we have crude oil inventory this is interesting because late i'll talk about the the oil as well we do have a very nice opportunity moving forward a winning look today or even tomorrow today itself the focus with then the president electrum speaking right now this is definitely going to move the US market in terms of equity stock market and of course the dollar index as well as a certain off TV risk on risk of environment playing out as well all right and then of course friday will be fat chair Yellen speaking right our that's gonna be the focus as well because I we would like to know as traders we would like to know moving forward into 2017 is the rate hike still on the table right now because last year when they increase the interest rate they did mention that in 2017 you are looking up for three more interest rate hike all right so this is the focus for us looking at the central bank from the Fed later part on Friday we do have core retail sales at pbi all right are certainly important data to track as well but relatively quiet for this week all right so these are just some of the news to look out for right let's go into the chart right now all right so first thing first whenever we trade we like to look at one of the most common index mistress the dollar index dxy right is important because a lot of currency pairs that we are trading based on are based on the dollar as far as denominated in the US dollar alright so the DXY or the dollar index actually gives us a very big and good understanding of how the dollar strength is and that's definitely gonna be a technical bias for the major pairs that we are going to be trading right so I'll just bring you to our no border broader timeframe perspective on the daily timeframe what I'm looking up for a while I'm what is my personal insights and opinion is that we are currently expecting a retracement right are from the recent string on the dollar right and then we might potentially and very high chance see one more move towards the upside targeting 106 point 20 area all right balance off now is definitely in the correction for the dollar index right and that's why you later on when I share view on the major pairs to see that there's a lot of major passage is actually in a consolidation or simply because dollar index is also consolidating all right but on a lower timeframe or are we are looking out for one more move down to compete this entire five wave structure and then that's where we can expect to to be you know bullish for the dollar moving to it's 106 point 20 all right so right now if you are looking to buy any of the majors all right are the means buying into dollar you might be want to be slightly cautious simply because we expect this move down first right meaning are we expect dollar to weaken slightly before before another bullish sentiment coming in right what can what can be the catalyst well this are of course if you look into this week a lender all right Donald Trump might be one of the catalysts to push the dollar index down and of course our Yellen can be the DD catalyst as well all right to move the dollar index but this is just based on technical based on the wave analysis all right so you might want to have your own strategy to engage these traits as well all right let's take a look into the euro dollar all right you can see your dollar is definitely in the consolidation it's a range environment what they're expecting is our one one more dip down right not a lot that's about just our close to 80 pips move all right and then are we still continue to expect it to bounce around alright so that's why I personally will feel that it's not the best opportunity a best time to actually take trades on euro dollar because it's gonna just bounce up and down I'm not going any in any clear direction right so I would suggest that if you have other opportunities around just skip this pad right until you get a better confirmation alright pound dollar we did see a huge dip in where price fell or a earlier this week itself and from here because of this huge move I'm expecting some form of deeper correction back to its the 52 s 61.8 Fibonacci level alright and we also see some form of divergence over here right at the bottom so it all pulls and and and show me sign that its kind of go a different race meant before any down move right so as of now if you are shutting the diversity looking to short the pound dollar right again be cautious on because this is also in line with are expecting the dollar index to weaken first dollar yen on h4 timeframe all right what we are looking at for is currently consolidating or is currently doing what i call expanding correction right because after a huge ready late late years last year right what we are seeing right now is currently just a retracement or item when this forms i expect at least one more move towards the upside or ever actually having said that right it's not the best level to take a by opportunity right now or I simply wait for this to reach right for price to reach this area around the 11 4.1 or and then if you see some sign that our price is reversing towards the upside that's the key and that's the signal for you to take a long trip right and I'm expecting it to break above this high is it does reverse and go to a zap site that means after it finishes correction alright so some some more room for it to drop right for 115 point ninety currently where it is 2×1 14.1 best about closer to our pits right and this drop is in line with the dollar index sentiment as well all right aussie dollar it would be interesting to watch on this this one alright i'm looking at a very nice ending diagonal structure forming all right with clear divergence happening as well and you can see price has lose the momentum to it the outside all right so I'm expecting price to terminate around the 73 82 7 40 50 that's about 30 pips range it's pretty small right I'm looking up for shot opportunities around this area right so if you are able to catch this within this week oh do take a look out for that as well right now expecting at least a drop back to with 72 95 or a pretty decent catch if you can capture this kind of trick TV dollar are will be slightly different from aussie dollar because our what is forming over here in terms of structure right it's dust it does show that you know Christ can still go higher back to a 71 25 and no instead of following the direction of Aussie dollar right kiwi dollar seems to go up higher so right now I do not have any clear setups to take a bite all right but based on this wave analysis I'm expecting one more move towards the area before that down move right but of course price and easily break this as well alright so again do not take this sharing as a trick all but just giving you some insights as to how I analyze the market and hopefully through this directional sharing you'll be able to leverage on it and trade according to your own strengths as well alright for dollar Canadian what I'm looking at for is this is definitely a corrective structure right so I'm expecting price to move higher too it's the end of this channel the top of this channel it would be a very decent shot opportunity alright are looking for price to move back down to its at least this trend night or if it if price breaks this all right we'll be going for the what I call the home run trick all right the cost of price decide to break this over here it can go down all the way all right but if price decided to bounce off that trend line or it might go up higher and then I will look for opportunities to short back up debt all right as of now you can take a very low restrict all right if price comes up to this top of the channel take a shot opportunity over here your stops above the previous structure you can actually aim for the home run trade all right if not from this top of the channel to this bottom of the trend line it's so a pretty decent rate because you can capture at least about 250 pits from dead all right so that's four dollar Canadian dollar Swiss friend is interesting to watch as well because I'm expecting this is definitely a corrective structure i'm expecting one more move or and if price comes back up towards the 1.0 220 level it's a pretty low risk rate with a certain high reward alright so the rich through what is really really decent because of my stock just needs to put above the one point 250 area and i can target as low as 1 point 0 0 for two alright so this one is again align with the overall dollar index all right we are expecting one more move towards the downside for the dollar index and that can be the catalyst to push dollar friend to us this last move towards a downside all right but if you look at the overall perspective on dollar franc right is actually still in the range and if I bring you back to euro dollar it's very similar and what they are doing okay so they are all actually in the range environment just that right now I wouldn't be looking for opportunity to buy the Euro here all right simply because the structure is not as clear as the dollar frame all right so if you want to sell the dollar dollar friend will obviously be a better opportunity because this structure is much clearer as compared to euro dollar all right let me bring you to I just now I mentioned earlier in this video that oil is very interesting with all pet news coming in today all right so all pet news over here right crude oil inventories expected to come in at 0.9 or as our way better than the negative number that came in previous month so if it comes in better or even in line deserve point 9 we might expect the oil prices to fall or example because we have a surplus inventory or an increase from the previous month but if the actual data come in less than the forecasted right and if it fell it falls into the negative territory oil prices might be rallying because are you a shortage of supply basically is a supply and demand concept from technical nsa's perspective and wave and nurses perspective we are expecting some form of termination in terms of this down move around the 50-point 62 xrd 49 point fifty area right so this will be a key area to look up for by opportunity but of course are we need some catalyst to push prices and the catalyst can definitely come from the news which is tonight crude oil venturi alright so my my perspective is that our touch is gonna terminate hear the sound move is probably high chance to determine it here and we are expecting one move to as the outside all right from a higher time frame perspective oi is that definitely broke the previous structure over here alright enemy I expect to move as high as back up to 58 points 60 right so our long-term bias is definitely to as the upside right and what you are looking up for is on the shorter timeframe can we look up for a trick opportunity to take it with a very low risk and very high reward ratio all right so what I'm expecting this is do not enter your by set up here all right wait for some form of combination your confirmation can come from a very bullish candle all right your condemnation have come from a double bottom etc right depending on what your strategy is to engage the trick all right but mine my bias or directional bias is actually towards the upside from here right I wouldn't be looking up for short opportunity because the the reward is pretty pretty small right for gold most of our traders are actually very interested in our precious metal a precious metal for gold I wouldn't I wouldn't recommend you guys to actually long it right now simply because the upside potential is very small as compared to your taking a downside namita cell trait right on a higher time frame perspective this is merely a correction as of now all right because you can see on the daily timeframe is very clear that the overall strength is towards the downside okay but yes we are expecting the downside to terminate over here lat late last year in December right and you can see price didn't really turn from that but it's not good to change our price if you did a long bet they're all right because right now the upside potential is rest more alright so do not long as of now because of the risk reward doesn't benefit you right but instead if price comes up to XD 1195 or even 1198 area right around to our vertex there will be a very decent opportunity and area for you to to look for short opportunity to treat that correction bet down right but of course long term wise in due 2017 I is actually I'm sorry goal is actually moving to it the x direction okay because after this scroll up move it we expect some a retracement and then continue up there right from there all the way back up to its 1465 or potentially around update right so if you manage to get a long trip long position at least lower or I or even a very low risk kind of trick it is actually advisable or even a very good opportunity for you to to hold on to your long position all right going for the home run tree so that's about it I'm sharing your view in this video country will all pass because then the video be super lenti all right but I'm sharing you the major and common pass that on traders actually actively look up and trade them right so before end this video are some of you might be may be asking or especially those who have been following on some time all right would be interested to know you how come we shifted our forecasting analysis to us are elliott wave all right or i would say wave rate analysis the reason is very simple because our for the past one to two months all right a lot late last year we have been we have been using this and we have been sharing with some of our inner circle traders and they have benefited hugely from you know didi accuracy and precision in forecasting direction using wave theory and are many of them actually asked if we are going to launch no i add a class or even a course to actually teach you guys how to do it dry and we decided then you know since the students as for a the traders ask for it we actually designed a course all right and we gotta launch it in late fairbury alright so this course is actually going to be conducted first in singapore of course are physically over a classroom setting but eventually we're gonna push it up into online setting as well and then it's going to benefit all traders around the wall all right especially those who are following us from youtube understand some of you might not be physically based in Singapore right so I'm gonna under insert this link into this video as well so are we are going to open up our first batch with a limited amount of seat all right simply because for the first batch we want to still gather some feedback right from you guys and of course because of that we are also giving a promotional price for the first batch right so this this workshop is going to be conducted not only on one day all right but we split it into two session or are one full day intensive shockwave you share with you everything that you need to know the knowledge the cherry aspect as well as some skill sets into forecasting using the l a– week and then we'll have another practical session in the evening during the live market session where you get to practice hands-on right so the first intake will be launched will be will be stuffing and twenty-fifth of februari right and of course you can read about others and the link later or manager in the video right the kospi starting for the for the first batch rubia 497 right we believe that this is really value for money because it's definitely one of the very beneficial analysis for casting technique that many traders actually use or including bank traders and institutional prop from traders but very very little people is able to actually share and are trained students into into using the elliott wave analysis or and we are very confident that we have the ability to do that right and that's why our this pricing is actually very very funny and I'm and what we can share view is the price is definitely going to be increased in the future as well alright so especially for those who are in Singapore if you want to get whole of this opportunity to learn this technique all right our feel free to quickly grab the seats all right because our we haven't decide what is the cat but most likely it's gonna be around 26 at most for the first batch all right so we do have some case studies as such and such alright we are going to launch it on 25th of fat right so that's one and of course are moving forward through 2017 alright if you read our an alert or a big share that we're gonna be more active on trading view sharing on the major pest alright so we have been doing that since the start of week one alright and again all this are not trick calls but if you would like to gain certain or insights into how we do it while some other direction that we are forecasting all right do deuce follow me on training wheel right and whenever I post a new idea update and idea you'll be able to get a notification right so our example like this would be know if you click into it I usually updated idea on Tuesday the idea of the poster on weekend I'll update the first idea on Tuesday and this and the second update will come on Thursday alright so simply put i would like to just share view more right based on this matter and hopefully you'll be able to benefit from it as well right so other than that i would like to wish everyone again happy 2017 and if you have any questions all right feel free to drop them under the comment section below in this video and again like and subscribe this video and hope to see you next week [Music]
