canadian gp 2025 | preview and expectations for ferrari (brakeboosted)
tl;dr - track layout seems ferrari-friendly (mostly slow corners, thus minimal variety = less setup compromise), however external factors could expose key weaknesses with tyre warm-up, braking stability, and ride height sensitivity, unless they adapt with real upgrades and not just setup tweaks
more detailed analysis by brakeboosted under the cut
Looking at the layout, you'd assume the track would suit Ferrari a lot, but that really isn't the case in my opinion. You think, slow corners, long straights, no fast ones, no setup compromise = Ferrari good. I think some external factors change that a bit. #CanadaGP 🇨🇦
Everything I'm about to write is under the assumption that the issues we've experienced have not been resolved.
Mostly slow corners and on a non-abrasive surface. Generating tyre temp is a persistent issue we've had over the last two seasons. I don't believe this is completely resolved. Hysteretic heating is at a minimum due to the low lateral energy transfer through the tyres. Molecular adhesion is also low due to the grip of the surface. This means, you won't be able to produce the heat needed for an optimal qualifying lap, and you put yourself in a position where graining on the front axle becomes a potential hindrance in the race as well. In the last two races, I think there might have been a small step in the right direction regarding the heating of the tyre. I personally don't think there is enough performance overhead to unmask that issue completely.
One thing to note is Pirelli have gone a step softer with the compounds. This might offset the potential damage these factors may cause to Ferrari, but the C6 tyre in general is just not a good tyre, I don't expect that to change this weekend.
The next thing is braking.
Something I have already noticed during testing, and it's been reaffirmed throughout the season, especially in Miami, is the unpredictability of high speed braking with this car. Another reason I think we might struggle, and more specifically in qualifying.
I believe this is a product of some extreme setup compromises, as mentioned by the drivers regularly throughout the season. It forces them to be rather conservative on the brakes on entry, and then try to use the already weak rear end on exit. It almost always results in a net time loss in similar scenarios at other circuits. I'd like to reiterate that this is under the assumption that no fixes are put in place this weekend.
The last thing I want to discuss is the bumpy nature of the track. Even post resurface the track is incredibly bumpy, that means cars will most likely not run at optimal ride heights, also because of the sheer amount of kerbs that need to be ridden. At this stage, I believe we are all familiar with the incredibly narrow working window of the SF-25. Factors like these in my opinion affect as an order of magnitude higher than the others. I don't like to use Monaco as a reference to make such judgments because it's too much of an outlier.
I see Pirelli have listed the downforce at 1/5, which is interesting. To me, is closer to a 2/5 than a 1/5, but I digress. If anyone runs a potential 1.5 setup this weekend, it McLaren, who quite frankly will be untouchable again. I'll put Mercedes/Red Bull in a 2nd force battle. Behind them Ferrari, quite frankly I think that is generous.
Two things I'd like to see Ferrari do this weekend:
1- Bring upgrades, and by that I mean meaningful upgrades.
2- Prioritize mechanical grip over aerodynamic grip.
What I mean by point 2 is, they should at the very least trial a lower downforce setup. Run softer on the rear, but reduce the amount of vertical load at the end of straights to reduce the bottoming. Give yourself a tool to be strong this weekend. Too often this year have we seen a Ferrari with no particular strengths. I don't necessarily expect this to be the answer to their problems, but I'd like to at least see them try different things.