#BucksForest Re-Grades the Last Decade of Bucks Drafts
Yippee! The NBA Draft is almost here.
While far less entertaining than it was in the 1990s, the NBA Draft remains a can’t miss event on the basketball calendar. We may miss David Stern. We definitely miss 90′s fashion sense (or lack there of). We may yearn for the entire enterprise to be abolished. (Think about it: in what other business is a person entering the workforce essentially told which company at which he must ply his trade. Drafts are un-American, I tell ya.) But the 2015 NBA Draft is just around the corner (Thursday, June 25 at 6 pm, CDT on ESPN and Watch ESPN) and I can’t wait.
The Bucks are in an extremely familiar position this year: they are picking in the middle of the first round. The low-quality blog-that-shall-go-unnamed that inspired me to create #BucksForest may no longer use the tagline, “Eighth Seed or Bust” (despite the fact that Edens/Lasry/Dinan appear thus far to be LESS willing to do what it takes to win than former Bucks owner Herb Kohl), but that’s essentially where the Bucks are for the time being. They aren’t contending for a championship and they’re not rebuilding.
Picking in the middle of the first round is relatively un-exciting this time of year, so I’m going to spice things up by re-grading the past decade of Bucks drafts.
The #BucksForest draft grading system uses a traditional curve. All thirty team drafts from a given year are analyzed, and then the top 10% are given A’s, the next 20% are given B’s, the middle 40% are given C’s, the eleventh through thirtieth percentiles are given D’s and the bottom 10% get F’s.
Here, then is what the #BucksForest NBA draft grades will ALWAYS result in:
A’s: 3
B’s: 6
C’s: 9
D’s: 6
F’s: 3
The #BucksForest grading system may look harsh at first blush. For example, here are the grades ESPN Insider Chad Ford gave first after the 2014 NBA draft (after removing any pluses or minuses):
A’s: 8
B’s: 12
C’s: 7
D’s: 2
F’s: ZERO!!!
Incomplete (weeeeeeak): 1
(Actually, I am OK with Chad’s grades. He has to maintain relationships with people who work for teams, while I don’t. With the way he grades, however, we can apply a traditional curve to Chad’s grades and get good info. For example, if a team got an A from Chad, that gets curved down to an A or B. Chad’s grades of B or lower then get curved down one notch. Simple. So, the Bucks’ A grade from Chad Ford last year is really an A or B.)
2005 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: A
1st round (1): Andrew Bogut
2nd round (36): Ersan Ilyasova
Well, it wouldn’t be #BucksForest if it didn’t start out in controversial fashion. The Bucks drafted Andrew Bogut over all-time great point guard Chris Paul and dominant-for-a-time Deron Williams. Plus there was a two-time NBA Champion center (Andrew Bynum) selected at number ten and the Bucks were preparing to sign ex-UCLA stiff Dan Gadzuric to a full mid-level exception contract extension (which lasted for SIX YEARS back in 2005). So, there are lots of arguments that the Bucks didn’t need to draft Bogut at number one.
Here goes my argument that the Bucks deserve an A:
1: It was a weak draft, so finding three teams that did better than the Bucks is far from a slam dunk.
2: Bogut is a center, which is the most important position in basketball. (We can argue about centers and the 2015 NBA Finals another time.)
3: Chris Paul only stayed in NOLA for six seasons, and Deron Williams stayed in Utah for less than that.
4: We got Big Ers in the second round! Monta Ellis and David Lee have definitely had better careers than Ers. One could argue that Amir Johnson and Marcin Gortat have, as well. So, Ers was definitely one of the five best second-rounders. And none of the other players mentioned were drafted by the team that did as well in the first round as the Bucks did with Bogut.
5: Bogut is a Champion, baby! Can Chris Paul or Deron Williams say that? Hell, no.
2006 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: D
2nd round (39): David Noel
There was a lot of blood on the dance floor with this draft because the NBA instituted the rule that players had to wait one year after graduating high school. Greg Oden would have been an absolute slam dunk number one pick in 2006 had the rule not changed, and Kevin Durant may have been number two. (Though it would have been especially hilarious to see the Bulls pick Durant and trade him for Tyrus Thomas, even moreso than the infamous LaMarcus Aldridge trade.) Neither of those men were allowed to enter the draft, so Andrea Bargnani went number one.
The actual haul from the Bucks’ draft is F-worthy. They drafted surefire D-Leaguer David Noel as their only pick. I honestly cannot remember anyone at any point thinking that Noel had a good chance to be an NBA rotation player. (Aside from one of my West Allis Central high school buddies, who is a rabid UNC fan.)
There were a number of trades relative to the 2006 draft that affected the Bucks’ grade. In two separate trades, they traded away two second round picks and solid NBA player Mike James, and all they got in return was non-NBA players Reece Gaines and Jiri Welsch. (I have a deserved rep amongst many of my friends for loving mid-00′s Bucks GM Larry Harris’s moves too much, but even I found these trades to be dogs from the moment he made them.) That was awful. But the Bucks did manage to acquire Jamaal Magloire for Desmond Mason and a first round pick. That trade may look bad at first glance, but it shows that the Bucks saw that 2006 draft picks would have minimal value before most other teams did. Plus, by getting rid of Mason the Bucks were able to put together the very pleasing backcourt trio of Michael Redd, Mo Williams and Charlie Bell. (Scoff all you want, but Spurs fans remember how lethal the Bucks’ backcourt trio could be in those days.)
If we deduct some points for the Bucks’ abominable second round trades and give them a small amount of credit for adding a needed Big by surrendering a first round pick in a weak draft, then the Bucks get themselves out of the F slot and into a D.
2007 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: F
1st Round (6): Yi Jianlian
2nd Round (56): Ramon Sessions
There’s a reasonable argument that no team should get an F grade when it drafts a player as good as Ramon Sessions with the 56th pick in the draft. I get that argument, and I wouldn’t argue strongly against it. But this was just so, so sad.
For those of you who may be new to the Bucks, the 2006-2007 NBA year is one of the sneaky-worst (to use a Bill Simmons-esque term) in team history.
1. I picked the Bucks to win the East in 2007. Sure, my predictions don’t mean much, but here was my case: The Bucks played the Pistons tough in the previous season’s first round. The Heat looked destined for a fall due to the teams’ age (which did happen). LeBron was too young to take over (I was wrong). The Nets had stopped surrounding Jason Kidd with the right pieces. And I underestimated the Bulls’ young core. I thought that Bogut would make a Leap (I had yet to learn that ages 20, 24 and 32 are when Leaps happen, not age 22), I thought that Charlie V was the missing Big and I thought that the Mike/Mo/Charlie threesome could be lethal (which it was! [at times]).
And even if you say, “Whatever, Ben, the Bucks were not a contender,” they still came into the year with a chance for a good season and a fun playoff run.
2. The Bucks were a .500 team (but on a 13-8 run) when they played Cleveland at the Bradley Center in January, 2007. I remember watching this game, though I wasn’t there live. The Bucks controlled this game, but Cleveland made plays down the stretch and won. It hurt. But what hurt even more is that Michael Redd slammed a meaningless dunk at the end (of a loss, no less), thus beginning his injury descent.
3. Mo Williams was injured the game after Redd was. (The Bucks were 16-18 at the time.)
4. With the Bucks skidding, Terry Stotts, who was the second-best Bucks coach of my lifetime after Don Nelson (though Jason Kidd certainly could surpass him at some point) was impetuously fired in mid-season.
5. Bogut was shut down for the season in mid-March, thus beginning his time of hard-luck injuries. (He played 82 games in his first season.)
6. In a year with two “generational” players at the top of the draft class (Oden and Durant), the Bucks finished with the third-worst record after being out-tanked by the Celtics.
7. Three teams jumped ahead of the Bucks in the lottery.
8. Needing a Big and more scoring, the Bucks were projected to draft Jeff Green or Joakim Noah.
9. With the NBA, the movie business, the wrestling business and just about every other American entertainment business foolishly looking towards China as a future profit center, the Bucks took Yi Jianlian.
(I must admit that I loved the Yi pick. Loved it. I just disliked Noah so much after watching Greg Oden dominate him and Al Horford in the NCAA Championship game that I knew that Noah would be a middling NBA player at best. I was wrong in so, so many ways.)
Even factoring in Redd’s injury, we can gaze into an alternate future and see good things if a few things went a different way. If the Bucks would’ve went 7-11 or 8-10 instead of 5-13 in the time after Stotts was fired (very possible, as I’ve always suspected that part of the reason for Stotts’ firing was that Larry Harris wanted to tank and Stotts didn’t), then the Bucks would’ve landed a top-3 pick. And from there a durable contender might have been built.
2007 truly was the beginning of the dark ages for the Bucks, and the 2007 draft played a role in that.
2008 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: C
1st Round (8): Joe Alexander
2nd Round (37): Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
My mission -- and I choose to accept it -- is to find nine teams from the 2008 NBA Draft (which was stacked) who did worse than drafting Joe Alexander with the eighth pick.
1. Miami took Michael Beasley with the second pick in the draft, despite their own team President talking smack about his bust potential in the run up to the draft. Then they took Darnell Jackson in round two, who was nowhere near as good as Mbah a Moute.
2. Anthony Randolph was the Warriors’ only pick. Despite needing interior help, they passed on the SEVEN consecutive solid NBA big men who followed Randolph in the draft.
3. Houston drafted Nicholas Batum (awesome player!) but traded him in a deal that saw Batum end up in Portland, Darrell Arthur (a solid NBA player) end up in Memphis and the Rockets end up with Joey Dorsey and Donté Greene. Yuck.
4. The Pistons and Celtics both drafted two players who made no NBA contribution, while the Bucks got Mbah a Moute. (I know, it’s getting thin.)
And.... Um....
2008 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: D
There were just too many good players in the 2008 draft for the Bucks to get anything above a D. Drafting Joey A was a big, big mistake. It didn’t necessarily set the franchise back, but there are just too many guys who could’ve helped the franchise out.
2009 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: B
1st Round (10): Brandon Jennings
2nd Round (41): Jodie Meeks
I want to give 2009 an A. Brandon Jennings was the catalyst in dragging the Bucks out of their late-00′s doldrums and Jodie Meeks turned into a solid NBA rotation player (though unfortunately not for the Bucks). But no matter how good those picks are, the Clippers got super-duperstar Blake Griffin (not hard when you’re drafting number one, but we’ve seen teams make mistakes in the one spot), the Thunder got James Harden (now gone from the team, but with an NBA Finals in OKC on his resume) and the Warriors got Steph Curry. Those are slam-dunk A grades in any year.
The Bucks actually got really, really lucky in 2009. It was an open secret that the Bucks were infatuated with future uber-bust Jonny Flynn. The T-Wolves ended up making a bad bet on Flynn, that left Steph Curry for the Warriors and it resulted in the Bucks “reaching” for Brandon Jennings.
Jennings may have had a bad end in Milwaukee, but the 2010 Fear the Deer run was memorable and the 2012 team could’ve pulledoff a first round playoff upset if not for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute barfing up the team’s season on a missed switch. His draft deserves a B, I think.
2010 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: C
1st Round (15): Larry Sanders
2nd Round (37): Darrington Hobson
2nd Round (47): Tiny Gallon
Solid C here.
Sanders obviously had a bad end in Milwaukee, but he was an incredible defender during the 2013 season. He was so good in fact, that I would nominate DeMarcus Cousins (2015) and Paul George (2013) as the only two players who have had a better single season than Larry’s 2013.
(I may be delusional in loving Sanders, of course. By the middle of the 2013 season I thought that the Bucks had a chance to be the second-best team in the East and Sanders had become my favorite Bucks player since Big Dog. But his interior D was so, so good.)
It must also be pointed out that the Bucks made a shrewd move in order to draft Sanders. At the 2010 trade deadline the Bucks acquired John Salmons (who was a huge part of the Fear the Deer run) and the right to swap picks with the Bulls. Double bonus, there.
The negative of the 2010 draft was that the two second round picks never made it to the League and the Bucks sold a pick to the Knicks that became Jerome Jordan. Jordan has never made an impact in the league, but he was rostered for the 2015 season, and that’s more than most second round picks from the 2010 draft can say.
2011 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: C
1st Round (10): Jimmer Fredette (actually Tobias Harris at #19)
2nd Round (40): Jon Leuer
This may be the toughest Bucks draft to re-grade. On the plus side, the team drafted some solid NBA players. On the minus side, the team passed on some even better NBA players. There are days when I look at this draft and want to give it a B, and there are days when I want to give it a D; maybe even an F. So, I’ll chicken out and settle on C.
Some backstory about 2011:
The Bucks traded for Corey Maggette one year earlier and badly wanted to get rid of him. Acquiring Maggette made sense at the time because the Bucks had a hard time getting free throws and easy buckets, but they didn’t realize he’d fall off a cliff athletically upon arrival from Golden State. Maggette thought he was still a great scorer, but he wasn’t. He had to go.
The Bucks had the number 10 pick in the draft and liked Klay Thompson if they were to draft at number 10.
The Kings loved Jimmer Fredette and had the number 7 pick. However, ownership was worried that if they took Jimmer with such a high pick that they would be ridiculed. The Kings wanted to trade down and still take Jimmer.
The Bucks had been expected to make the playoffs in 2011, but missed. Above all, they wanted a veteran scorer who would help them return to the playoffs in 2012.
With that backstory in mind, here were the Bucks’ options:
1. Draft Klay and keep Corey Maggette. With two years at over $10 million per year left on Maggette’s contract, this was not going to happen.
2. Trade Maggette and move down in the draft. Maggette was worth less than nothing, so the Bucks would lose draft position if they found someone to take Maggette. They found a taker in the Bobcats and the Bucks moved down to the 19th pick.
3. Trade Maggette and an asset for nothing, then draft Klay. In hindsight, this was the best option. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute could have been packaged with Maggette to get Maggette out of Milwaukee. A future protected draft pick could have been given away. Or the Bucks might have just been able to pay some team to take Maggette.
At the time the Bucks made the trade at the 2011 draft, I loved it. The Bucks were dumping Beno Udrih (a mistake, in hindsight) and Corey Maggette, acquiring Stephen Jackson (who I still have a soft spot for) and moving down only nine places in the draft. In hindsight, it was a terrible move because Udrih was a good player and Stephen Jackson was ready to hit a wall, just as Maggette was a year earlier. Plus it meant drafting Tobias instead of Klay.
As I write this, I keep feeling like this should be a D instead of a C. So maybe it should be:
2011 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: D
2012 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: B
1st round (14): John Henson
2nd round (42): Doron Lamb
This draft is actually close to an A. Check out the Wikipedia for the 2012 Draft. It’s a weak draft, so that curves the grades higher. The Bucks turned the 12th pick, Jon Leuer and flotsam into Sam Dalembert (not an epic Buck, but had a few moments) & John Henson. And the Bucks avoided several of the absolute grease fires that came after Henson was selected.
There’s not a whole lot to say about a draft that saw many of the players perform below expectations and many of the picks go as expected. Special notice, however, is deserved by Golden State. They went on an epic tanking mission after trading Monta Ellis to the Bucks because they owed their first round pick to Utah if it was below number seven. Not only did they get to seven, but they drafted Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli in the first (the only rotation players on a Championship team drafted in the first round) along with Draymond Green in the second. Wow. That’s not only an A grade, but one of the highest A grades since the Cavs drafted LeBron.
2013 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: A
1st round (15): Giannis Antetokounmpo
2nd round (43): Ricky Ledo (actually Nate Wolters at #38)
Everyone thought that this draft was weak, and boy does Everyone look smart. The Bucks drafted 15th and got the best player in the draft. As a fan, you can’t ask for much more than that.
The players from the 2013 draft have only been in the League for two years, so things could change. If they are going to change, though, it’d better happen quick. Players from the 2013 draft have already made their 20 year-old Leaps. We might see some 24 year-old Leap-ers, but it’s hard to find possible candidates. Maybe Michael Carter-Williams will do it next season.
Whatever Giannis becomes, we know that the Bucks have something. We know that Giannis is active, can finish in the open court and can defend multiple positions. Many, many Bucks fans disagree with me on what Giannis will end up being (I lean towards Darius Miles 2.0, they seem to lean towards Julius Erving 8.0), but we agree that the Bucks absolutely killed it in the 2013 NBA draft and they deserve an easy A grade.
2014 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: C
1st round (2): Jabari Parker
2nd round (31): Damien Inglis
2nd round (36): Johnny O’Bryant
Prior to the 2014 NBA Draft, my pre-grade for the Bucks if they took Jabari Parker was a D. My theory was that Jabari was too selfish and not athletic enough to be a great NBA player. I felt that with the 2014 NBA draft being touted as one of the best of all time and with two incredible specimens (Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid) sitting atop the draft, there was no way that taking Parker would be a better move than what at least nine other teams would do on draft night.
As it turns out, the 2014 NBA Draft does not look like it was filled with great players. Andrew Wiggins, Elfrid Payton, Donte Exum and KJ McDaniels all showed signs that they could be great. Jabari, Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, Dario Saric, TJ Warren, Bruno Caboclo, Clint Capela and Jerami Grant maybe, possibly could join that level or be at a level just below. Heck, even Joel Embiid and Damien Inglis, both of whom sat out the entire 2015 season, might be good-to-great players eventually. But at the moment, there is not the type of spark we saw in 2008 when Derrick Rose, Russell Westbook, Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Courtney Lee all started out hot, and several others matured into solid to good to great players.
10-Year Bucks NBA Draft Grade: C
When added up, a C grade seems like the fair assessment of the Bucks’ drafting over the past decade. There were certainly some rough drafts in the mid-00′s that set the franchise back, but in recent years the Bucks have plucked from solid contributors from some difficult spots in the first round.
The Bucks, sitting at number 17, are in another tricky spot in the 2015 NBA Draft. There may not be a need to draft an All-Star at number 17, but the team needs a solid rotation player. The Bucks’ rotation is a relatively young one, so drafting a guy who fits in doing something they need (interior scoring, perimeter defense, shot creation, offensive and defensive rebounding or protecting the rim) would be great to see.