Bucks Forest

Raiders have a Nation, WWE has a Universe, Bucks have a Forest

[bucksforest]

Ticket Broker Guide | How To Become a Ticket Broker

In this guide on how to become a ticket broker, we will cover the basics on how to start buying and . . .

Being a Bucks season ticket holder is great.  You get a per-ticket cost well below box office prices (especially during Playoff time), you get a relationship with a great sales staff and you get special treatment by the organization (which, honestly, is the biggest perk to me).

The trouble - for most people - is that 41 regular season games is just too many to attend.

But what if I were to tell you that you could get season tickets and just go to 12 games?  Or 15?  Or 6 or any other amount you choose?

There are a few ways to be a Bucks full season ticket holder and go to fewer games:

Give away tickets: Friendly, but less than feasible financially for most folks.

Split tickets with friends & family: This is what I do, but for a lot of Bucks fans it’s tough to find enough people to split all of the games.

Become an amateur ticket broker: You can go to the games you want, sell the games you don’t want and retain the status and benefits that come with being a “Bucks MVP”.

(I am guessing that the Bucks’ official policy frowns on ticket brokering, but in my six years as a season ticket holder I’ve never received any discouragement from re-selling games that I plan to skip.)

If you think Option 3 sounds good, then check out the link at the top of this post.  I actually follow almost none of the advice in that “Ticket Broker Guide” (I have lower level seats, my seats are behind the basket, I typically wait until the last minute before putting tickets on StubHub and I don’t use Point of Sale services), but I think it’s sound advice.

[bucksforest]

LEAD: Don Nelson, the Milwaukee Bucks' coach, described today's 3-hour-7-minute double overtime game against the Celtics as ''a big one for the stars and the average players.''

This article brought back so many memories.

I was born in 1977 and I became aware of the NBA sometime in the mid-80′s.  I definitely remember bits and pieces like the Memorial Day Massacre of 1985 and Ralph Sampson crushing my dreams of Lakers back-to-back Championships in 1986 (I, like many of the youths, started off by bandwagon-hopping a team that I found cool, and in the mid-80′s that was most definitely the Lakers), but I think that the 1987 season was when I really began to retain what I was seeing.  

I wasn’t a big Bucks fan during the 1987 season (I adopted the Bucks during the 1991 season after attending that incredible game vs. the Blazers on December 30, 1990), but I definitely hated the Celtics.  And as was custom during the mid-80′s, the Bucks met the Celtics in the Playoffs.  

I don’t remember most of the Bucks vs. Celtics game on May 10, 1987, but I remember a few things.  I remember John Lucas playing great, but missing a shot that could have won it in OT.  I remember Larry Bird being unstoppable.  And I remember feeling that, with a 3-1 deficit in the series, it was over.  (Of course, twenty seven years later my favorite hockey team, the LA Kings, would come back down 0-3 in a Playoff series where I never for a second doubted that the Kings could do it.  Age wisens a person.)

The article above is also notable for revealing the Don Nelson-Herb Kohl feud to a wider audience.  What a shame that was, in hindsight.  Nelly is the best coach the Bucks ever had and it would have been great for him to coach another twenty or so years in Milwaukee.  I am sure he would’ve had success, and kept the Bucks from being the laughingstock they became.

[bucksforest]

Good news for the Bucks: Divisions are on their way out.

The Central already boasted the two best teams in the East in 2015: Cleveland and Chicago.  Now Detroit and Indiana have the best two rookies, at least from the looks of things.  Myles Turner, Indy’s new Big, is on the left.  Stanley Johnson, Detroit’s new wing, is on the right.

The Bucks have a great shot at making the Playoffs, but our division is going to be deadly.

[bucksforest]

(photo from Uni Watch: http://www.uni-watch.com/2015/07/23/a-slew-of-new-nba-leaks-for-the-2015-16-season/)

PLEASE NO, BUCKS.  

No.  That alternate uniform may be literally the worst plausible alternate uniform that the Bucks could have.  

1. It’s Black

Why not Blue or Cream or anything but black?  So, sooooooo unimaginative.

2. It uses the Bucks head logo

The state of Wisconsin logo is so much better.

3. The logo is too dang big

Hockey jerseys work with big ol' logos as the primary feature on the front of the jersey.  Basketball jerseys don’t.

Anything else, Bucks.  Anything else but that as the alternate uniform.

[bucksforest]

Can the Bucks Run This Town?

The arena deal is done.  The Bucks’ future in Milwaukee is secured.  (Yes, I know that there are still a few more votes that have to happen, but at this point it’s destined.)  Now the Bucks can go about the business of being a part of Milwaukee’s culture.  

Just how big a part of Milwaukee’s culture can the Bucks become?

For the foreseeable future, Milwaukee is a Packers town.  The Pack are the most adored pro sports franchise in the city and that’s not going to change.  The NFL in the US has become like soccer in Europe: it is the dominant pro sport and all others are subservient.  Every single city with an NFL franchise loves that team more than any other pro sports team.  So, the Bucks aren’t going to overtake the Packers.

Let’s set aside the Packers for a moment.  If we exclude the NFL, can the Bucks become Milwaukee’s number one pro team?

(And for the record, I love the Brewers.  I just think it’s an interesting exercise to consider what the Bucks’ chances are of being bigger than the Crew.)

There are ten NBA teams that are tops in their city by default: Sacto, Utah, Orlando, Memphis, NOLA, Portland, Spurs, Charlotte, Indy and OKC.  They are all the only major pro team in town, not counting the NFL.  (And not counting MLS, which I excluded by specifying “major” pro sports.)

For the other twenty NBA teams, they are in competition with MLB and the NHL for the top spot in the city.  It might be useful to estimate just how many of those other nineteen teams are tops in their city as a way of gauging the Bucks’ chances of becoming more popular than the Brewers.

Category One: No Stinkin’ Chance

Teams: T-Wolves, Clippers, Warriors, Raptors, Knicks, Nets, Celtics, Sixers

"No Stinkin’ Chance” teams have no chance of becoming the top team in their area because the local culture is simply too engrained in support of another team.  The Maple Leafs rule Toronto, and they always will.  Same with the Lakers in Los Angeles (I know, you may doubt that one, but you should hear sports radio out here.  Even in the summer with a first-place Dodgers team, it’s all Lakers all the time.), the Yankees in New York (actually, the Giants have surpassed the Yankees in NY by many measurements.  But I’m excluding NFL comparisons for the purposes of this article.) and the Red Sox in Boston.

The Sixers and T-Wolves may not have an iconic pro sports team residing in their city, but they join this list because most of the city’s sports fans wouldn’t care if they left.  It’s obvious in Minneapolis, where hockey is a winter sports passion and the T-Wolves have only drawn when stocked with a contending team (which has been rare).  It’s less obvious in Philadelphia, where the team has won NBA Championships and has one of the top five pedigrees in the history of the League.  But the sad reality is that Philly is a Flyers and Phillies town far more than it is a Sixers town.  (Really it’s a massive Eagles town and every other team fights for scraps, but again I am ignoring the NFL for the purposes of this article.)  And it has been for so long that I just can’t elevate the Sixers to the “Bandwagon-Ready” category.

Category Two: Bandwagon-Ready

Bulls, Nuggets, Rockets, Pistons, Wizards, Hawks, Mavs, Suns

“Bandwagon-Ready” franchises are those who have at one time been the top dog in their city, or who appear to have the potential to attain the top spot if they go on a multi-year run of success.

Some of the Bandwagon-Ready teams were borderline calls.  The Nuggets, Wizards, Rockets and Hawks were all nearly given No Stinkin’ Chance.  It is just really hard to imagine the Rockies and Braves becoming less relevant than the Nuggets and Hawks.  I gave them the benefit of the doubt because their MLB co-habitants have yet to reach the iconic status of MLB or NHL teams in the No Stinkin’ Chance cities.  The other two borderline calls -- the Rockets and Wizards -- have MLB teams who are less entrenched, but it is just hard to imagine those cities really getting into the NBA.  The Rockets and Wizards have always struggled to draw unless the team is contender, and even then it’s dicey.  For example, ticket prices for Wizards Playoff games were readily available at the box office, while Capitals Playoff games sold out quickly at higher prices in 80+% of the arena.  But I gave both the Rox and Wiz the benefit of the doubt because the intra-city competition is less strong.

The Bulls, Pistons and Mavs seem to be firmly entrenched as Bandwagon-Ready cities.  It would take a seismic shift for the Cubs, Tigers (or maybe even Red Wings) or Rangers to fall below their NBA brethren.  But all three NBA teams do have strong fanbases who have given strong support to their teams and who have inspired city-wide enthusiasm when contending for Championships.  

Phoenix was the most interesting case in this category, and perhaps the most difficult NBA team to categorize.  The Suns are not particularly popular right now.  In my thirty-or-so years watching the NBA, they’ve only achieved strong local popularity with star-driven teams.  (With Barkley in the mid-90′s and Nash in the mid-00′s.)  Even with that checkered history, they may still be number one for non-NFL teams in their city.  The Diamondbacks and Coyotes are both struggling to draw right now and neither has a long term history of being immensely popular.  The D-backs are hamstrung by being a summer sport in an area where the population swells during winter and the Coyotes are stuck in an arena that is in the wrong part of town (much like the problem the Lakers had at the Forum, which resulted in lots of empty seats if the team wasn’t great).  It’s really tough to rank Phoenix’s non-NFL teams.  

If I were to rank Phoenix’s non-NFL teams (and, boy, is Phoenix ever the quintessential example of the NFL’s dominance.  The Cards are beloved despite being lightly attended only ten years ago), I would put the Diamondbacks ahead of the Suns and the Coyotes behind them both.  So, the Suns barely miss out on entering the “Already There” category, but it would’ve only been by default.

Category Three: Already There 

Lakers, Cavs, Heat

Nothing needs to be explained about the Lakers being number one in their city. They are the only NBA team that has drawing power on the level of an NFL team.  Other non-NFL pro teams may spend moments centering the sporting thoughts of a city, but none stay relevant year-round the way the Lakers do.  (And the NBA should be aware of this.  Los Angeles may be the one city where an NFL team would not ascend to number one, but it is a threat.  The NBA should be doing everything in its power to sabotage the NFL’s attempt at getting back into LA.)

The Cavs and Heat are in the Already There category for the same reason that the Suns almost made it: weak competition.  The Indians have been around a long time and have a history of drawing when successful, but Cleveland has become a Cavs town.  Even when LeBron was gone, Cavs fans came out to watch a losing team.  The Marlins and Panthers are weak competition in Miami as well.  Though admittedly we don’t know what the Marlins are capable of because they’ve never attempted to build a durable winning team.

And, the Bucks...

What does this all means to the Bucks, then?  They are clearly not a Category Three team because Milwaukeeans and Wisconsinites care far more about the Brewers, in general.  I’d like to think that they’re not a Category One team, either.  I’d like to think that there’s a stinkin’ chance that the Bucks could rise to the Brewers’ level, or even surpass it.

What do you think?  Are the Bucks a team that can become a true number one (excluding the Packers, of course) in Milwaukee?  Or are the Brewers such a part of Milwaukee’s sporting fabric that the Bucks have No Stinkin’ Chance to be more popular than them?

[bucksforest]

On Phil Talking Shit About Players

Today ESPN published Part 4 of Charley Rosen’s series on Phil Jackson’s first season with the Knicks.  I recommend that you read it.

The most titillating part of the piece is the same thing that was most titillating as Phil’s days coaching the Lakers: Phil talking shit.  What used to be running down the city of Sacramento or Mike D’Antoni’s coaching philosophy has turned into criticism of JR Smith or Andrea Bargnani.  

Unlike when Phil was coaching the Lakers, he’s an easy target nowadays.  The Knicks sucked last season, Phil is forcing his coach and team to use a “system” that nobody else uses and all of the team’s major free agent targets chose to sign elsewhere.  It’s easy to take shots at the old man today.

The only problem is that the shots people are taking at Phil are dumb.  

The criticism du jour is that Phil’s shit-talking at JR Smith’s gloomy attitude, Iman Shumpert’s annoying personality, Sam Dalembert’s sleepiness (literally) and Andrea Bargnani’s general ineffectiveness is harmful to Phil and the Knicks.  Agents, so the theory goes, have the power to direct players towards or away from NBA teams, and agents are going to use that power against the Knicks because Jackson’s shit-talking has the potential to de-value the agents’ clients.

While it is true that unfair and/or excessive shit-talking by coaches and executives gets punished, criticism that is both fair and obvious does not.  Sacramento was a cow town back when Phil criticized it and pick-n-roll heavy offenses did (and do) flame out in the Playoffs against good defenses (which was Phil’s primary criticism of D’Antoni).  In the same way, JR obviously does have a bad attitude when his team is losing, Bargnani is considered worthless by most NBA observers and it’s not altogether surprising that Iman Shumpert can get on people’s nerves (though admittedly that’s probably part and parcel to being a defensive specialist, and the Knicks may have done well to make a few more attempts at managing that).  The Lakers weren’t any worse off for Phil taking his shots back then and the Knicks won’t be any worse off from Phil taking his shots now.

Part of what I like about Phil’s comments (aside from their openness and honesty) is that I think that Jason Kidd has a little bit of Phil Jackson in him.  Kidd may not be the committed Triangle devotee that Phil is, but he does seem committed to his way of doing things and he’s not afraid to ruffle feathers.  Kidd wants a point guard with passing skills and vision, so he traded Brandon Knight.  Kidd thought that Giannis was getting too big a head, so he benched him for a game.  

I would enjoy seeing Kidd get even more confident and brash.  One area where Phil and Kidd differ is in how they value the public’s approval: Kidd cares greatly while Phil seems to see it as a low priority.  I would like to see Kidd take a few more risks.  I think it might help him get the very best out of the 2016 Bucks.

[bucksforest]

Also, if you look at the guys who came to the NBA from Duke, aside from Grant Hill, which ones lived up to expectations?

Phil Jackson, speaking to Charley Rosen for an ESPN feature

[bucksforest]

The Bucks are stocked with young talent while the Pelicans have the NBA's best under-26 player. Meanwhile, the Knicks and Nets might be rebuilding, but they have a long way to go.

ESPN Insider ranked the NBA’s “young cores” today (Charles Poole’s would win in a walk if ranking Tennis’s) and the Bucks were number one.  

Yay!  (I guess.  Kevin Pelton made the list and I’m far from the biggest fan of his NBA writing.)  I’ll post my thoughts on all of the recent talk about the Bucks’ young core soon.

[bucksforest]

Dancing on Tanking’s Grave

The tanking debate has long since been settled for Bucks fans.  In 2013, lots of self-loathing Bucks fans wanted it.  The Bucks didn’t tank the entire 2014 season, but they did finish with the worst record in the League.   A much-heralded player in Jabari Parker was the reward for all of this, but since the end of the 2014 season, Bucks fans have been just about unanimous in rooting for the team to win.

Though Jabari’s season did end early due to injury, it’s fair to say that his value has slipped.  No GM in their right mind (aside from Jason Kidd, it seems) would take Parker with the number two pick if the 2014 incoming rookie class was re-drafted today.  There’s no chance the Jazz would give up Dante Exum.  The Magic might hang up the phone without speaking if the Bucks asked about Elfrid Payton.  Houston isn’t giving up Clint Capela or KJ McDaniels (assuming he re-signs) and Philly would probably still prefer Embiid, Saric or Jerami Grant, given that their GM only wants what he views as Championship players and Jabari’s style (low-rebounding, ball-hogging, undersized power forward) doesn’t fit that mold.

(None of this is to say that the Bucks would want any of the aforementioned 2014 draftees.  Coach Kidd sees Jabari as a versatile scorer and creator in the mold of Paul Pierce or Carmelo Anthony, and Parker may yet become that.)

The NBA Summer Leagues are almost finished and the 2015 Draft class is beginning to sift itself out in the manner of the 2014 class, with the best guys falling below the top few spots.  For instance, the Pacers would laugh a the prospect of giving up Myles Turner (pick #11) for Jahlil Okafor (#3) or Karl-Anthony Towns (#1).  Stanley Johnson (#8) looked so good for the Pistons that they would probably laugh if the Magic offered fellow wing Mario Hezonja (#5).  And there is absolutely no way that the Nuggets would take the man who looks like the latest Lakers draft bust, D’Angelo Russell (#2), in exchange for Emmanuel Mudiay (#7).  And that’s not even accounting for players like the Bucks’ own Rashad Vaughn (#17), Branden Dawson (#56) and Bobby Portis (#19), who all appear to be on their way towards being among the top ten players from this year’s Draft.

Yes, it’s Summer League.  And, yes, I’ve made many Summer League misjudgments before (Tskitishvili in ‘02, Dominique Jones in ‘13 and Gary Harris last summer, to name a few).  But I think that NBA teams are finding that scouting players based on one year of college hoops is more difficult than ever, and I think that might (hopefully will) make tanking a rare exception rather than an accepted strategy.

[bucksforest]

Hurray! (Now Get The Lease Right)

A new Bucks arena is coming.  Yessirrrrrrr.  It was a sometimes-contentious journey with more drama than there should have been, but it’s done.  The Wisconsin state senate approved an Arena bill last night, approval in the Assembly is a slam dunk and Scott Walker will assuredly sign on for final approval.  (Approval at the city and county level is considered a slam dunk as well.)

There is a school of thought that nothing is guaranteed until the doors of the arena open in September, 2017 for a Pearl Jam concert, but at this point it would take force majeure to keep a new arena from being built north of the Bradley Center.  Wisconsin politicians want it, the Bucks want it and the NBA (which increasingly has been asserting control over its teams, to the point that I expect an anti-League rebellion within five years or so) wants it.  Things tend to happen when they have that much influence behind them.

The real battle now becomes the Bucks’ lease a the new arena.  We know that the Bucks will receive 100% of arena revenues, which was expected all along.  Same with the Bucks controlling arena dates (I expect the Bucks to actually play fewer home games on Saturday nights in an effort to draw more lucrative touring acts to Milwaukee) and the lease extending for thirty years.  What we don’t know is how tightly the team is tied to the lease.  

The tightness of pro teams’ arena leases has a broad spectrum.  On the tight side is the Tampa Bay Rays’ lease in St. Petersburg, FL.  The Rays have a thirty year lease that does not even allow for negotiating with other cities while the lease is in effect.  The loose side of stadium leases is the Arizona Coyotes’ lease in Glendale, AZ, which allows the team to move after only five years (yes, FIVE) if the team accumulates at least $50 million in operating losses during that time.  

The Bucks will be somewhere in the middle of the arena lease spectrum.  They will not be allowed to leave Milwaukee within five years of the arena being built, but they will also not be prohibited from negotiating with other cities for the entire thirty years.  The latter would be a great deal for NBA fans in Milwaukee, but Wes Edens & friends will not agree to it.

Milwaukee negotiators will surely have a list of desired requirements when negotiating against the Bucks on the arena lease.  Here is a list of requirements that I believe are both realistic and necessary:

1: No escape clauses for at least twenty years. 

The city of Indianapolis got screwed by allowing the Pacers to escape their lease after only ten years.  An arena -- mostly paid for by the city -- opened in 1999 and by 2009 the Pacers escaped their lease and extracted around $10 million per year in additional concessions from the city.  Few people in Indianapolis were embarrassed because Indy has a thing for giving away sweetheart stadium deals to sports teams.  (In fact, that’s basically the entire reason that Milwaukee native/long time soccer executive Peter Wilt is pushing for an MLS team in Indy right now instead of Milwaukee.  He knows that Indy’s appetite for funding sports stadiums is seemingly limitless.)

2: Limited government support for arena operating costs.

I want to suggest “no support for arena operating costs” here, but I’m trying to be realistic.  The Bucks’ owners did not get everything they wanted in the deal to build the arena, so they will certainly demand a yearly kickback to help cover some of the costs of maintaining the new arena.  

The key for Milwaukee negotiators is to set a hard limit on operating cost kickbacks.  The Bucks’ owners surely know that arenas occupied by NBA teams in mid-major cities lose money every year.  I expect the team to try to push through some type of cost sharing agreement on arena maintenance and improvements, as has often been done for pro teams in cities that have tenuous grips on their local teams.  The problem is that cost-sharing agreements often result in perverse incentives for the teams.  Plus, the Bucks are getting to keep all revenues from the arena.  On principle, the Bucks should have to pay for operating costs.

3: Modernization paid for by the Bucks.

Whatever arena gets built will be out of date within ten years.  That’s just the reality of arena construction.  In 1978, teams wanted more seats.  In 1988, teams wanted a ring of luxury boxes bisecting the lower and upper bowls.  In 1998, teams wanted club seats elevated 15-20 rows from the floor.  In 2008, teams wanted all-you-can-eat seats between the baselines running from the first to the last row of the lower bowl.  In 2018, the Bucks will want a smaller arena with several different types of luxury seating.  And in 2028, teams will want something else (my guess is that teams will remove luxury boxes from mid-bowl and build them all at center court, from the bottom of the lower level to the top).  

In most cases, teams make the best of the way their arena was build.  Cleveland, for example, has an arena with too many seats, too small a lower bowl, no all-you-can-eat club seats between the baselines and too many traditional luxury boxes.  But Cleveland has made the best of it because Cleveland is a hot NBA town (yes, any NBA town would be hot with LeBron, but even during the four years LeBron took his talents elsewhere, the Cavs did better business than the Bucks).  Now, the Cavs’ owner is asking for government money to renovate the arena.  Surely Cleveland politicians will be tempted to acquiesce because of how hot the Cavs are right now, but at least it’s a negotiation.  There is no contract requiring Cleveland to add a renovation just because the Cavs want one.

When (and it’s a “when”, not an “if”) the Bucks’ owners ask for an upgrade for the new arena, Milwaukee should not be required to pay for the upgrade.  Milwaukee might end up paying for part of the upgrade, but it should be as part of a negotiation.  We don’t want a situation like Charlotte, where the Hornets’ arena lease stipulates that the city has to keep the arena among the most modern in the NBA.  That lease stipulation just caused the city to sink almost $30 million into an arena that is less than ten years old.

***

The Bucks will push back against these three requests, along with any other lease requests that lighten Milwaukee’s load in paying for the new arena.  Heck, the Bucks may even threaten to back out of the deal, as the former owners of the Sacramento Kings did a few years ago when city negotiators asked for more than the Maloofs were willing to commit to.  

Ultimately, this is a game of leverage.  Milwaukee has a significant amount of leverage because Herb Kohl committed $100 million towards the arena and because the NBA now wants its teams to have control over their arenas.  Louisville, Las Vegas, St. Louis, Vancouver and most other cities that have been mentioned as re-location possibilities already have arenas that an NBA team would not be able to control.  Seattle is not an option for the current Bucks’ owners because Seattle’s arena proposal requires that Chris Hansen own the team.  If Milwaukee’s negotiators use their leverage properly, they can make this arena deal one of the tighter ones in the country.

[bucksforest]

Not good for the arena push. John Oliver on tax subsidies for sports stadiums.

[bucksforest]

What if?...

...2015 Jason Kidd is 2000 Doc Rivers. ...2015 Brandon Knight is 2000 Ben Wallace ...2015 Greg Monroe is 2000 Tracy McGrady OK, that last part would be awesome. I've been worried for about six months or so that the 2015 Bucks would be a reincarnation of the 2000 Magic. That Magic team was fancied to be among the League's worst, had a fun mix of young players and vets who came together and they went 41-41. (Back in 2000 the East was bad, not horrible. So a 41-41 record was not enough to get Orlando an eighth seed. The Bucks claimed that.) After the 2000 Bucks beat the Magic to secure the eighth seed, Bucks coach George Karl noted what a pity it was that Orlando appeared ready to dump many of the less regarded players who helped them to a fun season. And when Ben Wallace, Chucky Atkins, Corey Maggette and others were jettisoned, the team lost a lot of grittiness. The Bucks' dumping of Brandon, Zaza, Dudley and Big Ers reminds me a lot of what happened with the 2000 Magic. And just as the Magic landed a big free agent (actually two, as Grant Hill joined T-Mac for an injury-filled run in central Florida), the Bucks landed Greg Monroe. The 2001 Magic did make the playoffs, but the team stagnated for years before embarking on a rebuild after only three seasons with McGrady. The Bucks may have a better future than that, but I hope we don't look back in a few years and wonder why a fun 2015 Bucks team was broken up.

[bucksforest]

#BucksForest 2015 NBA Draft Grades (On A Curve!) - Part II

For A and B grades, read Part I of #BucksForest 2015 NBA Draft Grades.

Well, this is embarrassing.  

After making a big production about how much better it is to grade the NBA Draft on a curve, I forgot the proper shape of a curve.  

Here is what a curve is supposed to look like:

And here is an approximation of what my curve was going to look like:

With 30 NBA teams, a proper curve would result in three A’s, six B’s, nine C’s, six D’s and three F’s.  Instead, I gave three A’s and NINE B’s.  Big mistake.

After correcting my foolish mistake and assigning only six B grades, here are the #BucksForest 2015 NBA Draft Grades, so far:

A Grades: Bucks, Knicks, Nets

B Grades: Cavs, Pistons, Lakers, Magic, Heat, Hornets

C Grades: Rockets, Warriors, Sixers, and...

Additional C Grades: Kings, Pacers, Nuggets, Thunder, Raptors, Grizzlies

Things change fast when it comes to evaluating young talent in the NBA.  It is possible that a couple of my C grades would have been D grades if I had written this on the night of the draft, like a good journalist would.  And it is certain that I am tempted to re-do some of my earlier grades.  

For instance, the Kings could easily be an A or a B at this moment.  They managed the unthinkable (or, at least, the unlikely) in free agency by clearing out salary cap space taken up by non-contributors Jason Thompson (who I like in a lot of ways, but who had been showing less activity than at his peak) and Carl Landry.  (The clearing of salary cost the Kings last year’s first round selection and a first rounder likely to be conveyed in 2018, but that’s a small price to pay.  Last year’s first rounder, Nik Stauskus, is not the player the Kings thought they were drafting, and he will probably be out of the League without ever making an impact beyond a funny nickname.  The 2018 first rounder is right smack dab in the middle of DeMarcus Cousins’ prime, and so something truly unexpected would have to happen for that to be a meaningful asset.)  Then the Kings used that salary cap space to fill some needs in the backcourt and off the bench.  The Kings’ first round pick, WIllie Cauley-Stein, is a great selection for a team in that position.  The Kings want to win now, and so they can select a high-potential, risky draft pick because they don’t expect contributions from rookies.

The Pacers could also get an A grade for adding an offensively skilled Big man. Myles Turner probably will contribute this season now that Roy Hibbert and David West have been jettisoned.

As for the rest of the C grades...

Denver drafted a point guard, which makes sense if they move Ty Lawson.  Ty Lawson is currently still on the roster, which could theoretically knock this pick down to a D.  But since Mudiay is supposed to be a player with a high likelihood of having a solid NBA career, Denver sneaks into the C zone.

The Thunder get a C grade for reasons that are similar, but different.  OKC has not been rumored to be desiring a parting of ways with Dion Waiters, but if Cameron Payne is the scorer and creator he is supposed to be, then he gives the Thunder that option.

Toronto may deserve a place on the B line, and when the 2015 draft is re-evaluated in five years they just might have an A grade.  Delon Wright is a tall point guard who seems like a great compliment to a team that gets their much of their current offense from perimeter players.  They also picked up a defensive specialist from one of the most disreputable programs in college basketball with their second round pick.

Memphis’s B grade primarily comes from their second round selection, Andrew Harrison of Kentucky.  As with any second round selection, he is no lock to have a significant NBA career.  He was, however, a player I liked in college.  The Grizzlies’ first round selection is a big man who might be able to learn how to shoot, and that will help them a lot if it works out.

D Grades: Bulls, Blazers, T-Wolves, Wizards, Jazz, Clippers

Here is where things start to get worrisome.  People take offense to D grades.  (Heck, some people take offense to C grades, too.  Some people are more sensitive than others.)  And there could be a player or two that was selected from this group of teams that really does well.  If that happens, I’m going to look bad.  Not as bad as if one of the players from an F graded team becomes a star, but I’ll still look bad.

So, here goes...

The Clippers worry me the most, because after seeing Brandon Dawson in the Orlando Summer League I think they may have gotten a steal at pick 56.  He is a 6′7″ guy who should be playing as a Big man.  A lot of those guys don’t make it, some of those guys become Tobias Harris (a guy who can stay in the League and put up stats on a losing team) and a select few of those guys become Draymond Green. I see a little bit of Draymond in Brandon Dawson, but he will have make his effort level more consistent if he’s going to have the impact that Draymond has had.

Minnesota is another worry simply because they had the number one pick in the draft.  I feel good about giving a D to Minnesota, however, because I am confident that numerous players from this draft will be better than Karl-Anthony Towns.  Flat asses on big men are a big red flag for me, and Towns definitely has one.

Utah had a lottery pick as well, but theirs was a perplexing one.  They drafted a Big when they already have Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors on the roster.  I guess that they didn’t want to upset their young guards, but the reality is that they need someone who can get buckets.  Gordon Heyward is pretty good at that, but a backcourt player who can create his own shot would have made more sense.

Washington is the other team that worries me because they drafted Kelly Oubre.  Personally, I was less than enthusiastic after watching him, but he did grade out well among people who watch more college hoops than I do.  I think he’s an Otto Porter clone, though.  So that makes me feel a little bit better about dropping Washington to the D line.

Portland acquired Miles Plumlee with one of their picks, which was perplexing.  After showing promise in previous years, Plumlee was just about gone from the Nets’ rotation come playoff time.  I suppose Portland’s rationale might be that Lionel Hollins had a personality conflict with Plumlee that won’t exist with a fantastic coach like Terry Stotts, but it still was a borderline desperate move, I thought.

And when it comes to the Bulls... well, if there weren’t so many annoying Bulls fans in the Bradley Center for Bucks home games, then this grade might have been higher.  I know that it’s a big unfair to penalize a team’s talent evaluators for the behavior of their fans, but in my defense I think their fans feed off of pests like Joakim Noah and Mike Dunleavy, and those acquisitions were made by management.  

(Just to keep a thin veil of journalism going here, Bobby Portis was the player drafted by the Bulls and he could actually be good.  Reportedly, the Bucks’ old regime, who were responsible for drafting solid-to-quite-solid NBA players Giannis, Nasty Nate Wolters [who has looked good enough in Summer League that he will probably displace Austin Rivers on the Clippers], John Henson, Tobias Harris, Jodie Meeks, Larry Sanders, Jon Leuer and Brandon Jennings since 2009, wanted Bobby Portis.  And when you look at that outstanding draft record [and I’m going to avoid taking a potshot at the outstandingly poor record of the Hammond regime in virtually all other personnel decisions], it makes me think that Portis may end up being a solid pro.)

F Grades: Pelicans, Celtics, Hawks

The Pelicans were the easy F.  They did get Omer Asik by trading their first round pick, but I didn’t think that he was a great compliment to the team.  They made the playoffs, but I think that the P-Cans are now stuck in 8th-seed-of-bust territory.  Plus, they sold Brandon Dawson, who I think will become a solid pro for the Clippers.

I love tweaking the Celtics, so admittedly an F grade for them may be as biased as the D grade for the Bulls.  The Celtics drafted four players, all of whom showed skills in college and all of whom could play some in the NBA.  But, as was revealed after the draft, the Celtics were looking for a difference-maker in this draft and they probably didn’t get one.  

Atlanta gets my last F grade, and I feel good about this one.  The Hawks won 60 games last regular season.  Since then, they struggled to beat the 8th seed Nets (who, in fairness, were a tough 8th seed), struggled again in the next round vs. a non-contending Wizards team, were swept by the Hawks, introduced uniforms that whose design was widely panned (though possibly embraced by the hip-hop/black community), saw Danny Ferry -- architect of this surprisingly successful team -- depart, gave away the draft rights to two promising players in the first round, acquired Thiago Splitter (who had just about fallen out of the rotation with the Spurs), lost Demarre Carroll (who was, along with Jeff Teague, one of their most important players last season) to the Raptors and signed undersized, 30 year-old Big man Paul Milsap to a maximum contract.  Suffice it to say, I am perplexed by what the Hawks are doing.  I would not be surprised to see them fall out of the Playoffs in 2016.  (Maybe that sounds dumb, but would an East lineup of Cleveland, Chicago, Milwaukee, Toronto, Washington, Detroit, Indiana and Brooklyn be that surprising?  Or maybe the Celtics or Hornets or Heat?  It wouldn’t to me.)

There you have it: the #BucksForest 2015 NBA Draft Grades, on a curve.  Bookmark this one, because in a couple of years there will surely be some grades to laugh or nod or roll your eyes at.

[bucksforest]

I Got What I Wished For... Should I Have Been Careful?

Entering the offseason, conventional wisdom had it that the Bucks had three Wishes:

1. Re-sign Khris Middleton.

2. Acquire a rim protecting/physical Big man.

3. Draft or acquire a spot-up shooter.

“Noooooooooo,” I said.  “You have it all wrong (again), online Bucks fans and media.”  The Bucks don’t need those things.  Instead, I would Wish for:

1. Interior toughness and rebounding.  (Which is close to what conventional wisdom was saying, but with more of an emphasis on toughness and less of an emphasis on “rim protection”.)

2. A guy who gets buckets.  (Not just a spot-up shooter, but a guy who can score in a variety of ways.)

3. A starting point guard.  (Because I think that Carter-Williams is not an NBA point guard.)

And I didn’t really care about retaining Middleton.  He is a solid NBA player who can score some and give an effort most of the time on defense, but he is not a star.  If he left, I thought that the Bucks would be able to replace him without too much trouble.

My nightmare scenario was as follows: MCW, Middleton, Greek, Jabari & Tyson Chandler as a starting five.  K.Marshall, Henson/Zaza, OJ, Dudley and maybe some rookie catch-and-shooter off the bench.  That is an ugly rotation that would lose at least fifty games.  

For a moment, my nightmare looked like it could come true.  Big Ers was traded in a salary dump, which I thought might lead to the Bucks acquiring Chandler, retaining Middleton and signing a catch-and-shooter.  

Things started to turn around on the night of the Draft.  Instead of standing behind Michael Carter-Williams, the Bucks acquired Grievis Vasquez to compete for his job.  Nice!  My third Wish had come true.  And then later in the Draft the Bucks selected Rashad Vaughn.  He’s a bucket-getter, not a spot up shooter.  (Though with young players it’s always tough to tell how they’ll be used.  Coach Kidd might end up sticking Vaughn in a corner instead of letting him try to get hoops.)  That’s Wish number two!

I was so excited that I gave the Bucks an A grade for the Draft.  (And if you’re looking for Part II of the 2015 #BucksForest NBA Draft Grades, it’s not there yet.  I’ll get to it, though.)

Free agency brought a different set of worries, but those worries were assuaged (and then some) when the Bucks signed Greg Monroe.  Not only did his signing grant my Wish number one, but he is a great passer.  Specifically, he is the type of great passer who should work brilliantly with the Greek Freak.  Giannis and Monroe can both move, pass and finish.  Those two playing as Bigs together is an absolutely delicious prospect.  They have McHale/Walton or Vlade/Webber potential on offense.

So, man, this is great.  Three Wishes for the Bucks’ offseason and all three wishes get granted.  And the end result is a rotation that looks like this: Starters: Monroe, Giannis, Middleton, Jabari and Vazquez.  Bench: MCW, OJ, Henson and Zaza.

That... is... pretty...  Wait a moment.  Is that any good?  It might not be, and if MCW starts over Vasquez it might be downright bad.  Jabari, Greek and Monroe up front is not what you want on defense.  MCW and Middleton do not create enough offense to overcome that lack of defense.  And neither of those men is great on perimeter defense at the point of attack.  Sure, a bench with OJ, Vazquez and Henson on it would look pretty darned good, but this may not be a playoff team, even in the East.

And then I read Yahoo’s report about Monroe choosing the Bucks, where it said that Monroe picked the Bucks because they are “almost assured” of making the Playoffs next season.  Of course I want, hope and think that the Bucks make the Playoffs, but I also like to play Devil’s Advocate.  What if the Bucks struggle?  What if the situation is like it was for the Hornets last season, where big things were expected after a surprise Playoff appearance, a high profile free agent came aboard and when the team struggled early the new signing became a headache for everyone.  Hopefully Greg Monroe in Milwaukee works out a lot better than Lance Stephenson in Charlotte, but these are the unexpected things that sometimes happen in the NBA.

In the end, I’m happy to ride with Monroe.  I think that he and Giannis will play together famously.  I think that Monroe will up his defensive game and toughness.  I think that Coach Kidd will do a great job on two fronts: he will choose Vasquez over MCW and he will keep Middleton’s bloated contract from being a problem in the locker room, as Chandler Parsons’ contract was last season in Dallas.

But I can’t help it.  Until the season gets here, there is going to be a part of me that wonders if getting what I Wished for was a bad thing for the Bucks.

[bucksforest]

#BucksForest 2015 NBA Draft Grades (On A Curve!) - Part 1

All in all, that was pretty interesting.  Even without the usual number of trades, unfortunate freefalls and shocking reaches, the 2015 NBA Draft provided quite a bit of entertainment.  

lIt is now time for #BucksForest to add to that entertainment by grading each NBA team’s draft.  #BucksForest grades on a curve (as witnessed by the A-through-F range given to the last ten years of Bucks drafts) and the grades in any given year are ALWAYS as follows: three A’s, six B’s, nine C’s, six D’s and three F’s.  Part 1 will feature the A’s and B’s.  Part 2 will feature the C’s, D’s and F’s.

(And if you disagree, feel free to find me on Twitter (@benmiller) to bitch about it.)

A Grades: Knicks, Heat, Nets (ESPN team-by-team recaps)

Is the worm turning?  After years and years (and years and years) of domination by the Western conference, is the East finally getting its act together?

I’m not willing to go so far as to say that the East is close to the West’s level just yet, but I do think that the East out-flanked the West in this draft.  Minny took Towns, but I think that he is just a weak rebounder.  The Lakers took Russell, but I don’t even think that he’ll be better than Jordan Clarkson, their outstanding rookie point guard in 2015.  The Kings made a huge reach for Cauley-Stein and Mudiay to the Nuggets seems like a downgrade from Ty Lawson (who I’m assuming is as good as gone).  The East, on the other hand, probably nabbed the top two big men (maybe three) and the top two wings (again, maybe three).  

The Knicks were a slam dunk A grade because they picked fourth and got the best player (in my opinion.  Though this is the last time I’m going to write that.  Grading the NBA Draft the day after it happens is fundamentally an opinion, so just assume that I’m adding that addendum to every statement.)  That’s gonna get a team an A every single time.

The Heat were another slam dunk A grade.  If a team can get the Celtics to offer up most of their supposed treasure trove of B.S. “assets” for a player and that player gets picked at number 10, then that’s an A.  (The Heat also grabbed a player in the second round who gets a lot of steals, which is something I always like.

Brooklyn may be the most controversial A grade, but I loved what they did.  The Nets grabbed a falling star (Hollis-Jefferson, who was part of a dynamite Arizona team that easily could have ended up National Champions) and turned Miles Plumlee (who had fallen out of favor after Thad Young’s arrival via trade) for Steve Blake, who can play 8-15 minutes per game as a reliable ball handler and shooter.  Plus they got a slashing Euro-stash from the Hornets for cash because the Hornets, like many NBA teams, are secretly struggling to stay in the black and the entire League’s business is teetering on the verge of collapse.  (Witness the Hawks selling for $730 million, which is the first time an NBA team has sold for less than Forbes’ NBA Team Values estimates since MJ bought the Bobcats [now Hornets] for a song.)

B Grades: Pistons, Lakers, Magic, Hornets, Bucks, Rockets, Warriors, Pacers, Sixers (ESPN team-by-team recaps)

Who’s gonna win [a B grade]?  The Bucks!  The Bucks!

Before I get to the Bucks, I want to give the Pistons special notice here.  I hemmed and hawed over whether they should get that last A grade over the Nets.  Stanley Johnson, though left out of my 20-second scouting reports on this week’s #BucksAndClippers Weekly, passed his 20-second test with flying colors.  He played at Arizona, like Nets draft choice Hollis-Jefferson (#HoJo?), and he was a key part of their success.  I think that Johnson will be a better pro than #HoJo, but I gave the Nets the nod because they made a great trade to move up and they bought a Euro-stash in the second round.  If I gave plusses and minuses, the Pistons would be on the Plus side for sure.

The team we all care most about, of course, is the Bucks and they did an outstanding job.  Absolutely outstanding.  In fact...

A Grades: Bucks, Knicks, Nets

B Grades: Heat, Pistons, Lakers, Magic, Hornets, Rockets, Warriors, Pacers, Sixers

It’s tough, but the Heat have to be knocked down to a B grade for the Justise Winslow (and possible-solid-defender second round) pick.  Winslow passed the 20-second scouting test and he seems like exactly the type of guy who can compliment Dragic, Wade and Bosh.  But he also fell for a reason and that reason is attitude.  Teams just didn’t like his maturity level.  DeMarcus Cousins registered the worst maturity level in NBA history during the pre-draft process and he turned out great.  (Theoretically great, at least.  There still is some question as to how much blame Cousins deserves for Sacramento’s inability to put together a winner.)  In most cases, however, players who lack maturity fail to make a mark relative to their talent level in the NBA.  So, I’m fine with knocking the Heat down to a B grade.

And actually, that reminds me...

B Grades: CAVS, Heat, Pistons, Lakers, Magic, Hornets, Rockets, Warriors, Sixers

A comment in the previous paragraph about the Cavs (the immaturity comment, because LeBron may be the NBA’s signature case of wasted talent due to immaturity) reminded me that they deserve a B grade.  The Cavs used Denver’s (likely) 2017 first rounder and OKC’s (likely) 2016 first rounder to get Mozgov from Denver.  Sounds confusing, I know, (and perhaps shouldn’t count because the picks Cleveland trades didn’t end up being conveyed in 2015 due to arcane pick protections) but Mozgov was such a key piece for Cleveland that I have to give them at least a B grade for this draft.

As for the other B grades...

The Lakers got a guy who is probably a good NBA player in D’Angelo Russell, and maybe a great player.  They also picked up a couple of other college players, one of which being a gift from the Rockets for taking on the last year of Jeremy Lin’s contract.  (A high price for what ended up being a late first round pick [Lin was due $15 million] but in the state the Lakers were in it was worth the risk.)

Orlando continues to be a perplexing franchise.  They gave away Luke Ridnour for a Latvian who Memphis gave up on (which means the Euro likely is below NBA-caliber) when they could have grabbed a real asset, as Memphis did in acquiring Matt Barnes.  They also might pay Tobias Harris a lot of money and they drafted Aaron Gordon ahead of a lot of potentially great players in last year’s draft.  Those things are dumb.  Orlando also drafted Elfrid Payton last season and Mario Hezonja (the best Wing prospect in the draft) this year.  Those are smart things.  So, I’m not sure about the Magic’s braintrust overall, but I sure did like their 2015 draft.

When a team passes on a “Godfather offer” to get their guy, they get upgraded in the draft.  So, even though I didn’t love Frank Kaminsky after my 20-second scouting report, the Bugs get pushed up to the B zone.

Rockets grabbed Wisconsin guy Sam Dekker, who has even more boom/bust potential than Porzingas in my view, so that deserves the reward of a B grade.

Dubs grabbed Wisconsin native Kevon Looney, who was correctly penalized for his idiotic choice of college by falling to the end of the first round.  But we all make mistakes when we’re young and Looney could end up being the rare UCLA guy to have a non-pathetic career in the NBA.

And then there’s many people’s favorite punching bag, the Philadephia 76ers.  

The Sixers have been on an historic tanking spree over the last two seasons, but they’ve gone about it in an ingenious way: they preyed on their fans’ east coast elitism.  Historically, east coasters have enjoyed fashioning themselves as alternately intellectuals and dedicated sports fans.  They never abandon their pro teams like those southern rubes in Miami or Atlanta.  They admire money and class, not fame and image like those unserious west coasters.   At least, that how they see themselves.  The Sixers’ brass saw something in those east coasters as well: an opening to take advantage of Philly fans’ high opinion of themselves.  The Sixers preyed on both the intellectual side (”smart fans will understand what we’re doing”) and the hardcore fandom side (”real fans don’t abandon their team during tough times”) to magnificent success.  Despite making it painfully clear that the Sixers had no intention of winning and that the roster was composed of almost nobody who would ever have a chance of playing for a winner in Philly, the team’s business did not crater.  The Sixers still drew OK crowds and TV ratings never dropped to the lowest levels reached by teams like the Hornets or Bucks.  So, well done, Sixers.

Except... the Sixers’ ingenious plan may be unraveling.  Nerlens Noel, who was the first draft pick made by the current regime, is a poor man’s Tristan Thompson.  The Sixers regime’s second pick was Michael Carter-Williams, and we all know what happened there.  Joel Embiid came next, and he appears to have Podiatric AIDS (a foot with a faulty immune system).  Dario Saric was the Sixers other high draft pick last season, and he has apparently decided to play his first THREE eligible seasons in Europe.  What’s worse, the east coast nature of Philly fans may be backfiring on the Sixers.  Their elitism allowed the “smart rebuilding” canard to pass, but now Philly fans are starting to analyze the roster closely and dislike what they see.  And the hardcore fandom that was once used by Sixers management now has a bubbling undercurrent of discontent that may have to be answered to.  It’s all very interesting (if you care about arcane NBA crap, as I do.  If you just like watching the best players play basketball, then you probably found these last two paragraphs hopelessly boring).

Luckily for the Sixers, they got the surest thing in the 2015 NBA Draft.  Jahlil Okafor may not end up being a star (I certainly don’t think that he will be), but he will be a rotation player for many years.  They deserve a B.

C, D and F grades are still to come in part 2.

[bucksforest]

#BucksForest Re-Grades the Last Decade of Bucks Drafts

Yippee!  The NBA Draft is almost here.  

While far less entertaining than it was in the 1990s, the NBA Draft remains a can’t miss event on the basketball calendar.  We may miss David Stern.  We definitely miss 90′s fashion sense (or lack there of).  We may yearn for the entire enterprise to be abolished.  (Think about it: in what other business is a person entering the workforce essentially told which company at which he must ply his trade.  Drafts are un-American, I tell ya.)  But the 2015 NBA Draft is just around the corner (Thursday, June 25 at 6 pm, CDT on ESPN and Watch ESPN) and I can’t wait.

The Bucks are in an extremely familiar position this year: they are picking in the middle of the first round.  The low-quality blog-that-shall-go-unnamed that inspired me to create #BucksForest may no longer use the tagline, “Eighth Seed or Bust” (despite the fact that Edens/Lasry/Dinan appear thus far to be LESS willing to do what it takes to win than former Bucks owner Herb Kohl), but that’s essentially where the Bucks are for the time being.  They aren’t contending for a championship and they’re not rebuilding.

Picking in the middle of the first round is relatively un-exciting this time of year, so I’m going to spice things up by re-grading the past decade of Bucks drafts.  

The #BucksForest draft grading system uses a traditional curve.  All thirty team drafts from a given year are analyzed, and then the top 10% are given A’s, the next 20% are given B’s, the middle 40% are given C’s, the eleventh through thirtieth percentiles are given D’s and the bottom 10% get F’s. 

 Here, then is what the #BucksForest NBA draft grades will ALWAYS result in:

A’s: 3

B’s: 6

C’s: 9

D’s: 6

F’s: 3

The #BucksForest grading system may look harsh at first blush.  For example, here are the grades ESPN Insider Chad Ford gave first after the 2014 NBA draft (after removing any pluses or minuses):

A’s: 8

B’s: 12

C’s: 7

D’s: 2

F’s: ZERO!!! 

Incomplete (weeeeeeak): 1

(Actually, I am OK with Chad’s grades.  He has to maintain relationships with people who work for teams, while I don’t.  With the way he grades, however, we can apply a traditional curve to Chad’s grades and get good info. For example, if a team got an A from Chad, that gets curved down to an A or B.  Chad’s grades of B or lower then get curved down one notch.  Simple.  So, the Bucks’ A grade from Chad Ford last year is really an A or B.)

2005 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: A

1st round (1): Andrew Bogut

2nd round (36): Ersan Ilyasova

Well, it wouldn’t be #BucksForest if it didn’t start out in controversial fashion.  The Bucks drafted Andrew Bogut over all-time great point guard Chris Paul and dominant-for-a-time Deron Williams.  Plus there was a two-time NBA Champion center (Andrew Bynum) selected at number ten and the Bucks were preparing to sign ex-UCLA stiff Dan Gadzuric to a full mid-level exception contract extension (which lasted for SIX YEARS back in 2005).  So, there are lots of arguments that the Bucks didn’t need to draft Bogut at number one.

Here goes my argument that the Bucks deserve an A:

1: It was a weak draft, so finding three teams that did better than the Bucks is far from a slam dunk.

2: Bogut is a center, which is the most important position in basketball.  (We can argue about centers and the 2015 NBA Finals another time.)

3: Chris Paul only stayed in NOLA for six seasons, and Deron Williams stayed in Utah for less than that.

4: We got Big Ers in the second round!  Monta Ellis and David Lee have definitely had better careers than Ers.  One could argue that Amir Johnson and Marcin Gortat have, as well.  So, Ers was definitely one of the five best second-rounders.  And none of the other players mentioned were drafted by the team that did as well in the first round as the Bucks did with Bogut.

5: Bogut is a Champion, baby!  Can Chris Paul or Deron Williams say that?  Hell, no.

2006 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: D

2nd round (39): David Noel

There was a lot of blood on the dance floor with this draft because the NBA instituted the rule that players had to wait one year after graduating high school.  Greg Oden would have been an absolute slam dunk number one pick in 2006 had the rule not changed, and Kevin Durant may have been number two.  (Though it would have been especially hilarious to see the Bulls pick Durant and trade him for Tyrus Thomas, even moreso than the infamous LaMarcus Aldridge trade.)  Neither of those men were allowed to enter the draft, so Andrea Bargnani went number one.  

The actual haul from the Bucks’ draft is F-worthy.  They drafted surefire D-Leaguer David Noel as their only pick.  I honestly cannot remember anyone at any point thinking that Noel had a good chance to be an NBA rotation player.  (Aside from one of my West Allis Central high school buddies, who is a rabid UNC fan.)

There were a number of trades relative to the 2006 draft that affected the Bucks’ grade.  In two separate trades, they traded away two second round picks and solid NBA player Mike James, and all they got in return was non-NBA players Reece Gaines and Jiri Welsch.  (I have a deserved rep amongst many of my friends for loving mid-00′s Bucks GM Larry Harris’s moves too much, but even I found these trades to be dogs from the moment he made them.)  That was awful.  But the Bucks did manage to acquire Jamaal Magloire for Desmond Mason and a first round pick.  That trade may look bad at first glance, but it shows that the Bucks saw that 2006 draft picks would have minimal value before most other teams did.  Plus, by getting rid of Mason the Bucks were able to put together the very pleasing backcourt trio of Michael Redd, Mo Williams and Charlie Bell.  (Scoff all you want, but Spurs fans remember how lethal the Bucks’ backcourt trio could be in those days.)

If we deduct some points for the Bucks’ abominable second round trades and give them a small amount of credit for adding a needed Big by surrendering a first round pick in a weak draft, then the Bucks get themselves out of the F slot and into a D.

2007 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: F

1st Round (6): Yi Jianlian

2nd Round (56): Ramon Sessions

There’s a reasonable argument that no team should get an F grade when it drafts a player as good as Ramon Sessions with the 56th pick in the draft.  I get that argument, and I wouldn’t argue strongly against it.  But this was just so, so sad.

For those of you who may be new to the Bucks, the 2006-2007 NBA year is one of the sneaky-worst (to use a Bill Simmons-esque term) in team history.

1. I picked the Bucks to win the East in 2007.  Sure, my predictions don’t mean much, but here was my case: The Bucks played the Pistons tough in the previous season’s first round.  The Heat looked destined for a fall due to the teams’ age (which did happen).  LeBron was too young to take over (I was wrong).  The Nets had stopped surrounding Jason Kidd with the right pieces.  And I underestimated the Bulls’ young core.  I thought that Bogut would make a Leap (I had yet to learn that ages 20, 24 and 32 are when Leaps happen, not age 22), I thought that Charlie V was the missing Big and I thought that the Mike/Mo/Charlie threesome could be lethal (which it was! [at times]).

And even if you say, “Whatever, Ben, the Bucks were not a contender,” they still came into the year with a chance for a good season and a fun playoff run.

2. The Bucks were a .500 team (but on a 13-8 run) when they played Cleveland at the Bradley Center in January, 2007.  I remember watching this game, though I wasn’t there live.  The Bucks controlled this game, but Cleveland made plays down the stretch and won.  It hurt.  But what hurt even more is that Michael Redd slammed a meaningless dunk at the end (of a loss, no less), thus beginning his injury descent.

3. Mo Williams was injured the game after Redd was.  (The Bucks were 16-18 at the time.)

4. With the Bucks skidding, Terry Stotts, who was the second-best Bucks coach of my lifetime after Don Nelson (though Jason Kidd certainly could surpass him at some point) was impetuously fired in mid-season.

5. Bogut was shut down for the season in mid-March, thus beginning his time of hard-luck injuries.  (He played 82 games in his first season.)

6. In a year with two “generational” players at the top of the draft class (Oden and Durant), the Bucks finished with the third-worst record after being out-tanked by the Celtics.

7. Three teams jumped ahead of the Bucks in the lottery.

8. Needing a Big and more scoring, the Bucks were projected to draft Jeff Green or Joakim Noah.  

9. With the NBA, the movie business, the wrestling business and just about every other American entertainment business foolishly looking towards China as a future profit center, the Bucks took Yi Jianlian.

(I must admit that I loved the Yi pick.  Loved it.  I just disliked Noah so much after watching Greg Oden dominate him and Al Horford in the NCAA Championship game that I knew that Noah would be a middling NBA player at best.  I was wrong in so, so many ways.)

Even factoring in Redd’s injury, we can gaze into an alternate future and see good things if a few things went a different way.  If the Bucks would’ve went 7-11 or 8-10 instead of 5-13 in the time after Stotts was fired (very possible, as I’ve always suspected that part of the reason for Stotts’ firing was that Larry Harris wanted to tank and Stotts didn’t), then the Bucks would’ve landed a top-3 pick.  And from there a durable contender might have been built.

2007 truly was the beginning of the dark ages for the Bucks, and the 2007 draft played a role in that.

2008 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: C

1st Round (8): Joe Alexander

2nd Round (37): Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

My mission -- and I choose to accept it -- is to find nine teams from the 2008 NBA Draft (which was stacked) who did worse than drafting Joe Alexander with the eighth pick.

1. Miami took Michael Beasley with the second pick in the draft, despite their own team President talking smack about his bust potential in the run up to the draft.  Then they took Darnell Jackson in round two, who was nowhere near as good as Mbah a Moute.

2. Anthony Randolph was the Warriors’ only pick.  Despite needing interior help, they passed on the SEVEN consecutive solid NBA big men who followed Randolph in the draft.

3. Houston drafted Nicholas Batum (awesome player!) but traded him in a deal that saw Batum end up in Portland, Darrell Arthur (a solid NBA player) end up in Memphis and the Rockets end up with Joey Dorsey and Donté Greene.  Yuck.

4. The Pistons and Celtics both drafted two players who made no NBA contribution, while the Bucks got Mbah a Moute.  (I know, it’s getting thin.)

And....  Um....  

2008 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: D

There were just too many good players in the 2008 draft for the Bucks to get anything above a D.  Drafting Joey A was a big, big mistake.  It didn’t necessarily set the franchise back, but there are just too many guys who could’ve helped the franchise out.

2009 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: B

1st Round (10): Brandon Jennings

2nd Round (41): Jodie Meeks

I want to give 2009 an A.  Brandon Jennings was the catalyst in dragging the Bucks out of their late-00′s doldrums and Jodie Meeks turned into a solid NBA rotation player (though unfortunately not for the Bucks).  But no matter how good those picks are, the Clippers got super-duperstar Blake Griffin (not hard when you’re drafting number one, but we’ve seen teams make mistakes in the one spot), the Thunder got James Harden (now gone from the team, but with an NBA Finals in OKC on his resume) and the Warriors got Steph Curry.  Those are slam-dunk A grades in any year.

The Bucks actually got really, really lucky in 2009.  It was an open secret that the Bucks were infatuated with future uber-bust Jonny Flynn.  The T-Wolves ended up making a bad bet on Flynn, that left Steph Curry for the Warriors and it resulted in the Bucks “reaching” for Brandon Jennings.  

Jennings may have had a bad end in Milwaukee, but the 2010 Fear the Deer run was memorable and the 2012 team could’ve pulledoff  a first round playoff upset if not for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute barfing up the team’s season on a missed switch.  His draft deserves a B, I think.

2010 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: C

1st Round (15): Larry Sanders

2nd Round (37): Darrington Hobson

2nd Round (47): Tiny Gallon

Solid C here. 

Sanders obviously had a bad end in Milwaukee, but he was an incredible defender during the 2013 season.  He was so good in fact, that I would nominate DeMarcus Cousins (2015) and Paul George (2013) as the only two players who have had a better single season than Larry’s 2013.  

(I may be delusional in loving Sanders, of course.  By the middle of the 2013 season I thought that the Bucks had a chance to be the second-best team in the East and Sanders had become my favorite Bucks player since Big Dog.  But his interior D was so, so good.)

It must also be pointed out that the Bucks made a shrewd move in order to draft Sanders.  At the 2010 trade deadline the Bucks acquired John Salmons (who was a huge part of the Fear the Deer run) and the right to swap picks with the Bulls.  Double bonus, there.  

The negative of the 2010 draft was that the two second round picks never made it to the League and the Bucks sold a pick to the Knicks that became Jerome Jordan.  Jordan has never made an impact in the league, but he was rostered for the 2015 season, and that’s more than most second round picks from the 2010 draft can say.

2011 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: C

1st Round (10): Jimmer Fredette (actually Tobias Harris at #19)

2nd Round (40): Jon Leuer

This may be the toughest Bucks draft to re-grade.  On the plus side, the team drafted some solid NBA players.  On the minus side, the team passed on some even better NBA players.  There are days when I look at this draft and want to give it a B, and there are days when I want to give it a D; maybe even an F.  So, I’ll chicken out and settle on C.

Some backstory about 2011: 

The Bucks traded for Corey Maggette one year earlier and badly wanted to get rid of him.  Acquiring Maggette made sense at the time because the Bucks had a hard time getting free throws and easy buckets, but they didn’t realize he’d fall off a cliff athletically upon arrival from Golden State.  Maggette thought he was still a great scorer, but he wasn’t.  He had to go.

The Bucks had the number 10 pick in the draft and liked Klay Thompson if they were to draft at number 10.

The Kings loved Jimmer Fredette and had the number 7 pick.  However, ownership was worried that if they took Jimmer with such a high pick that they would be ridiculed.  The Kings wanted to trade down and still take Jimmer.

The Bucks had been expected to make the playoffs in 2011, but missed.  Above all, they wanted a veteran scorer who would help them return to the playoffs in 2012.

With that backstory in mind, here were the Bucks’ options:

1. Draft Klay and keep Corey Maggette.  With two years at over $10 million per year left on Maggette’s contract, this was not going to happen.

2. Trade Maggette and move down in the draft.  Maggette was worth less than nothing, so the Bucks would lose draft position if they found someone to take Maggette.  They found a taker in the Bobcats and the Bucks moved down to the 19th pick.

3. Trade Maggette and an asset for nothing, then draft Klay.  In hindsight, this was the best option.  Luc Richard Mbah a Moute could have been packaged with Maggette to get Maggette out of Milwaukee.  A future protected draft pick could have been given away.  Or the Bucks might have just been able to pay some team to take Maggette.

At the time the Bucks made the trade at the 2011 draft, I loved it.  The Bucks were dumping Beno Udrih (a mistake, in hindsight) and Corey Maggette, acquiring Stephen Jackson (who I still have a soft spot for) and moving down only nine places in the draft.  In hindsight, it was a terrible move because Udrih was a good player and Stephen Jackson was ready to hit a wall, just as Maggette was a year earlier.  Plus it meant drafting Tobias instead of Klay.

As I write this, I keep feeling like this should be a D instead of a C.  So maybe it should be:

2011 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: D

2012 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: B

1st round (14): John Henson

2nd round (42): Doron Lamb

This draft is actually close to an A.  Check out the Wikipedia for the 2012 Draft. It’s a weak draft, so that curves the grades higher.  The Bucks turned the 12th pick, Jon Leuer and flotsam into Sam Dalembert (not an epic Buck, but had a few moments) & John Henson.  And the Bucks avoided several of the absolute grease fires that came after Henson was selected.

There’s not a whole lot to say about a draft that saw many of the players perform below expectations and many of the picks go as expected.  Special notice, however, is deserved by Golden State.  They went on an epic tanking mission after trading Monta Ellis to the Bucks because they owed their first round pick to Utah if it was below number seven.  Not only did they get to seven, but they drafted Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli in the first (the only rotation players on a Championship team drafted in the first round) along with Draymond Green in the second.  Wow.  That’s not only an A grade, but one of the highest A grades since the Cavs drafted LeBron.

2013 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: A

1st round (15): Giannis Antetokounmpo

2nd round (43): Ricky Ledo (actually Nate Wolters at #38)

Everyone thought that this draft was weak, and boy does Everyone look smart.    The Bucks drafted 15th and got the best player in the draft.  As a fan, you can’t ask for much more than that.

The players from the 2013 draft have only been in the League for two years, so things could change.  If they are going to change, though, it’d better happen quick.  Players from the 2013 draft have already made their 20 year-old Leaps.  We might see some 24 year-old Leap-ers, but it’s hard to find possible candidates.  Maybe Michael Carter-Williams will do it next season.

Whatever Giannis becomes, we know that the Bucks have something.  We know that Giannis is active, can finish in the open court and can defend multiple positions.  Many, many Bucks fans disagree with me on what Giannis will end up being (I lean towards Darius Miles 2.0, they seem to lean towards Julius Erving 8.0), but we agree that the Bucks absolutely killed it in the 2013 NBA draft and they deserve an easy A grade.

2014 Bucks Draft Re-Grade: C

1st round (2): Jabari Parker

2nd round (31): Damien Inglis

2nd round (36): Johnny O’Bryant

Prior to the 2014 NBA Draft, my pre-grade for the Bucks if they took Jabari Parker was a D.  My theory was that Jabari was too selfish and not athletic enough to be a great NBA player.  I felt that with the 2014 NBA draft being touted as one of the best of all time and with two incredible specimens (Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid) sitting atop the draft, there was no way that taking Parker would be a better move than what at least nine other teams would do on draft night.  

As it turns out, the 2014 NBA Draft does not look like it was filled with great players.  Andrew Wiggins, Elfrid Payton, Donte Exum and KJ McDaniels all showed signs that they could be great.  Jabari, Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, Dario Saric, TJ Warren, Bruno Caboclo, Clint Capela and Jerami Grant maybe, possibly could join that level or be at a level just below.  Heck, even Joel Embiid and Damien Inglis, both of whom sat out the entire 2015 season, might be good-to-great players eventually.  But at the moment, there is not the type of spark we saw in 2008 when Derrick Rose, Russell Westbook, Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Courtney Lee all started out hot, and several others matured into solid to good to great players.

10-Year Bucks NBA Draft Grade: C

When added up, a C grade seems like the fair assessment of the Bucks’ drafting over the past decade.  There were certainly some rough drafts in the mid-00′s that set the franchise back, but in recent years the Bucks have plucked from solid contributors from some difficult spots in the first round.  

The Bucks, sitting at number 17, are in another tricky spot in the 2015 NBA Draft.  There may not be a need to draft an All-Star at number 17, but the team needs a solid rotation player.  The Bucks’ rotation is a relatively young one, so drafting a guy who fits in doing something they need (interior scoring, perimeter defense, shot creation, offensive and defensive rebounding or protecting the rim) would be great to see.

[bucksforest]

Episode 1 of the #BucksForest podcast: Bucks and Clippers Weekly.  (My buddy is a Clippers team and I live in L.A., so...)