#cidrap

[nicolagriffith]

H5N1 Bird Flu updates

The latest news on H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (bird flu) is a mix of good and bad. The bad: it transmits between ferrets (a good model for humans) and it is deadly. The good: some antivirals work well.

This a good new/bad news situation. The good news—excellent, actually—is that the Missouri case that might have been human-to-human transmission very probably was not. For one, the health care contacts were not infected with H5N1, and for another, the household contact was very likely infected at exactly the same time as the index patient and therefore exposed to the original source of the…

[pandemic-info]

Evolving peak SARS-CoV-2 loads relative to symptom onset may influence home-test timing | CIDRAP

Evolving peak SARS-CoV-2 loads relative to symptom onset may influence home-test timing

Median SARS-CoV-2 viral loads, as measured by polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold and antigen concentrations, rose from symptom onset,

Median SARS-CoV-2 viral loads, as measured by polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold (Ct) and antigen concentrations, rose from symptom onset, peaking on the fourth or fifth day of symptoms. Estimated rapid antigen test sensitivity was 30.0% to 60.0% on the first day, 59.2% to 74.8% on the third, and 80.0% to 93.3% on the fourth.

Plain English:

Highest viral load is ~4-5 days into symptom onset, which means you're most likely to test positive about a week after an initial infection.

That also means that if you're IC/HR/etc. (or healthy & just don't want a disease that has a high chance of turning into long-term disability) and need to isolate from someone who's likely been exposed, the "quarantine" period should be at least 4-5 days, if not up to a week.

This has been the case for several years, not new, and corroborated by virologists and epidemiologists I've spoken to about their own protocol for infection avoidance.

[butasformeblog]

"Hope Is Not A Strategy," Warns Dr. Michael Osterholm On The Future Living With Covid-19

Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm explains what we're getting wrong about COVID-19 in 2022

Case numbers are down 50% from 2 weeks ago, though the virus is still claiming some 2,400 lives in America every day.

PODCAST

We're keeping tabs on what's happening with the coronavirus and looking ahead to what living with it really means.

After the U.S. was walloped by micron, COVID-19 cases are now down more than 50% over the past two weeks. Deaths are still high though, with an average of more than 2,400 people losing their lives to the virus each day.

Here & Now's Scott Tong and Peter O'Dowd check in with Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research at the University of Minnesota.

This segment aired on February 7, 2022.

[butasformeblog]

Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm Compares Reopening Schools As U.K. Variant Invades The U.S. Is Like 'Planting Petunias In A Hurricane'

What Michael Osterholm has learned one year in to the pandemic | MinnPost

The director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy on what was different about this coronavirus

"When [President Donald Trump] held up that summary from Johns Hopkins saying we’re the best-prepared country in the world for a pandemic, I cringed because I knew how ill-prepared we were, and yet that’s what people thought; that we would be prepared...

I think another influenza pandemic is going to happen. When it takes place, I don’t know, but it’s going to happen. And now we have to consider maybe additional new coronaviruses are going to emerge. This one really took us by surprise as a pandemic agent."

[nosferdoc]

“When in doubt tell the truth. Take action now”

— Micheal Osterholm, 9/17/2020.

[butasformeblog]

Close case contact, dining out tied to COVID-19 spread

Adults with COVID-19 were almost twice as likely to report dining at a restaurant.

[nosferdoc]

[butasformeblog]

Florida and Texas are both targeting drinking establishments to help curb dramatic surges in cases.

“Half of the new COVID-19 cases detected in recent weeks have been in adults under 35, Vice President Mike Pence said today during a press conference held by the White House coronavirus task force

The press briefing was held as America saw another record COVID-19 day, with more than 41,000 cases reported in the past 24 hours, and Florida tracking nearly 9,000 new cases.”