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Many food insecure nations are usually able to switch between staple foods when one becomes too expensive, but the market is making that difficult, according to Mr Vogel. "Especially in parts of Africa, it is about getting food on the table, so consumers are more flexible, so they can substitute rice for corn, tapioca or wheat," he said.
Clint Jasper, ‘Indian rice export ban, war in Ukraine and El Niño create bleak outlook for world's starving millions’, ABC
Watching their water storages deplete, officials in Thailand are mulling over whether to suspend rice farming in the Central Plains region, known as the 'rice belt'. "What's worrying is the El Niño phenomenon may extend right through to 2025. We have to plan nationwide water management prudently," the Office of National Water Resources secretary general Surasri Kidtimonton told the Bangkok Post. The looming El Niño was a key factor in Indonesia's decision to import 1 million tonnes of rice from India. Indonesia's director of foreign trade, Budi Santoso, said the imports from India would be realised this year regardless of the export ban.
Clint Jasper, ‘Indian rice export ban, war in Ukraine and El Niño create bleak outlook for world's starving millions’, ABC
Rabobank head of research Stefan Vogel said higher demand for exports from the countries that remained open to the market could lead to further restrictions on international trade. "What we've seen in the past when a major exporter takes a step like India has, everybody around them has to follow suit, because everybody who wants to buy rice goes to those limited extra export volumes," he said. Immediately after India's ban, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade requested its rice exporters and processors to strictly adhere to the government's policy of maintaining rice reserves equivalent to at least 5pc of their export volume in the previous six months, according to Reuters. The United Arab Emirates has already placed a four-month ban on re-exports of Indian-origin rice, to ensure enough stocks remain on its domestic market. It typically re-exports the rice it buys from India, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam to Oman, Benin, Zimbabwe, the US and Somalia.
Clint Jasper, ‘Indian rice export ban, war in Ukraine and El Niño create bleak outlook for world's starving millions’, ABC
Sub-Saharan Africa is the world's largest rice import market, taking in 17.4 million tonnes of rice this season, according to USDA. "Thailand and Vietnam, the second and third largest exporters, cannot fill the gap left by the India export ban," Mr Gupta said. "They don't have the stocks, and their production for the coming season isn't looking that great. Food security, for rice, is about to take a beating."
Clint Jasper, ‘Indian rice export ban, war in Ukraine and El Niño create bleak outlook for world's starving millions’, ABC
Despite a 20 per cent export duty placed on non-basmati rice in September last year, stocks continued to flow overseas, and domestic prices kept rising. Mr Gupta said the previous season was marked by a poor start to the monsoon, while worse growing conditions were expected in the future as El Niño set in. "And because rice prices were so high, India was still exporting rice at a blistering pace, which led to significant domestic food rice inflation," he said. Since the ban, domestic prices have eased some $US40/tonne, however the huge gap left in the export market has seen prices outside of India soar.
Clint Jasper, ‘Indian rice export ban, war in Ukraine and El Niño create bleak outlook for world's starving millions’, ABC
India accounts for about 40 per cent of the global rice trade but is struggling to control food prices domestically. Prior to India banning exports, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) was forecasting it to be the largest exporter in the global trade of milled rice, as it has been for many years. In its most recent rice outlook, the USDA said India was expected to ship a record 23.0 million tonnes in 2024, exceeding the combined shipments of the next two largest exporters — Thailand and Vietnam.
Clint Jasper, ‘Indian rice export ban, war in Ukraine and El Niño create bleak outlook for world's starving millions’, ABC
In May, the Australian Banking Association declared Australian agribusiness a "star performer" in its assessment of national business lending. In the 12 months to February 2022 its members lent $4.3 billion to agriculture, forestry, and fishery businesses, a 30 per cent rise on the previous 12 months. A run of good seasons, and expectations the high prices will stick around, has spurred an investment frenzy on farms. But the the appetite for more investment may be waning as farmers wait to see just how high their input bills will rise.
Clint Jasper, ‘Fuel and fertiliser bills are soaring but high grain and meat prices put farmers on track for a profit, ABC
The prices paid for beef, lamb, and sheepmeat at saleyards around the country have broken record after record as farmers competed with meat buyers to rebuild their herds and flocks after the last drought. Saleyard prices are expected to decline in the coming 12 months, and ABARES estimates the value of beef and sheepmeat exports to drop by around one per cent to $25 billion in 2022-23.
Clint Jasper, ‘Fuel and fertiliser bills are soaring but high grain and meat prices put farmers on track for a profit, ABC
