#conjunction fallacy

[bauunitchief]

The “Linda Problem” from tonight’s episode that was “too esoteric” and complex to be understood; aka the problem that has been read in any psychology class ever and is seen here in the textbook reading i should be doing.

[lotterycodex]

The Conjunction Fallacy: How It Misleads Lottery Players

The conjunction fallacy occurs when a lotto player believes that two events happening together are more likely than one occurring alone. For

[usunezukoinezu]

''What is more likely, that a seven-letter word randomly selected from a novel would end in ing or has the letter “n” as its sixth letter? This highlights both the availability bias and the conjunction fallacy. All seven-letter words ending with ing have the letter “n” as its sixth letter, but not all with the letter “n” as its sixth letter end in ing. Again, the driving force for the conjunction fallacy is the availability bias. Words ending with ing come to mind more easily.''

-Tversky and Kahneman, Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment

[socialmancer]

"Can you outsmart this logical fallacy? - Alex Gendler"

[bits-and-pieces-am]

The conjunction fallacy is a formal fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. The most often-cited example of this fallacy originated with Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman: "Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which is more probable? 1. Linda is a bank teller. 2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement." The majority of those asked chose option 2. However, the probability of two events occurring together (in "conjunction") is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone [...]

Wikipedia: “Conjunction fallacy”

[teachanarchy]

The psychology behind irrational decisions - Sara Garofalo  

View full lesson: http://ed.ted.com/lessons/the-psychol... Often people make decisions that are not “rational” from a purely economical point of view — meaning that they don’t necessarily lead to the best result. Why is that? Are we just bad at dealing with numbers and odds? Or is there a psychological mechanism behind it? Sara Garofalo explains heuristics, problem-solving approaches based on previous experience and intuition rather than analysis.