#contender list

[kitsum]

US Open contenders (the women's top 3)

And now for the Big 3's US Open prospects, in ascending ranking order:

Maria Sharapova: I had originally written here about how it must have been a pretty frustrating year for Sharapova so far because she had two golden opportunities to win a Slam without her nemesis Serena in the way and couldn't take advantage. I also wrote about how she felt like a distant third in the US Open favorites category behind Azarenka and Serena but how a fierce competitor like her should never be counted out at a major no matter how scratchy her form looks beforehand.

Now, though, the official news is that Sharapova is out of the US Open because of injuries. This is hardly the first injury setback she has suffered and I have no doubt that she'll be back and more determined than ever, but it sadly ties back into my first initial statement about this year being a frustrating one for her and how bad luck is to blame for it more than anything else. All I can say here is that I wish Maria good luck with her recovery and hope that I'll see her back on court before long.

Victoria Azarenka: After her narrow victory over Serena in the Cincinnati final, she's definitely the player most capable of upsetting Serena. It should be noted, though, that Serena was clearly far from her best in that match (a fully rested Serena would almost certainly not have missed that sitter forehand while two points away from victory) and also that Azarenka's form was patchy at best throughout the tournament overall. For these reasons, I still wouldn't place Azarenka ahead of Serena as the top contender.

At the same time, I believe that it really is true that Azarenka is the second most likely player to hoist the US Open trophy. She still won't be able to beat Serena if the latter is playing at her very best, but she's the player who's the most poised to take advantage of a lapse in concentration or form from Serena, and she will come in with confidence from her recent win that Serena isn't as invincible as she might have seemed just after Roland Garros. Provided that no further injury mishaps occur (/anti-jinx), I would be very surprised if Azarenka doesn't defend her finalist points from last year at the very least regardless of the draw she gets.

Serena Williams: Ah, Serena. This Tennis.com article sums up the enigma and never-ending complexes that are Serena Williams better than I ever could, especially on how she tends to be more on edge at the US Open than at any other tournament because of the intense pressure she places on herself to do well at her home Slam. The US Open was a place of personal and competitive triumph for Serena last year, but it has also served as the place of some moments she'd rather forget like what transpired there in 2009 and 2011. It, in that sense, is much like Serena herself.

What do I think of Serena's prospects? I think that her aura has faded a bit after her early Wimbledon loss and recent loss to Azarenka and that the possibility of someone other than her winning a major title is easier to imagine now at this US Open than it was at any other point this year. I also think that she is still the de facto favorite for the US Open and that it will take a special combination of injuries, on-fire opponents, and/or errors on her part to take her down.

Above all, however, I think that Serena will be human. I think that she won't blaze effortlessly to the title without dropping a single set and that there will be moments when she feels the pressure hanging around her neck like a yoke and tightens up. Serena, so far, has had a pretty darn great year -- and it will still be a great year for her even if she doesn't win the US Open -- but it has also been a very human one at the same time. She has had long stretches in this season where she looks for all the world invincible, but she has also had memorable moments where she's reminded us that she's still capable of getting injured, beaten, letting opponents get into her head, and generally being a human being who gets nervous and upset. I suspect that we'll see a microcosm of all of this during her US Open run, and that she will have at least one tough battle after cruising through the first three or four rounds.

As to whether she survives that battle or not? It's anyone's call, including her opponent's and Serena's herself.

[kitsum]

US Open contenders (the women's wild cards)

For both the women and men, I'm going to make two posts: the first one will be about the US Open contenders outside the top 3 ranked players, and the second one will focus exclusively on the top 3 players.

For the women, though, I'm having a somewhat tough time settling on which players are most likely to contend for the US Open title if the top 3 of Serena, Azarenka, and Sharapova falter. (And just before I finished writing this up, I learn that Sharapova has pulled out of the US Open...) Part of this is because I don't follow the WTA quite as closely as I do with the ATP and hence don't have as clear an idea of which dark horses are the darkest.

Another part of this is because the players ranked outside of the WTA's Big 3 are typically either consistent performers who nonetheless lack the firepower that would make winning majors much easier or streaky headcases who can catch fire for two weeks just as easily as they can lose to qualifiers in the first round, which makes elevating any of them above the rest as an "obvious top contender" difficult. (I mean, even if you had been told beforehand that someone outside of the Big 3 would win Wimbledon, would you really have been able to predict that Marion Bartoli would turn out to be the top contender?)

With all of that said, though, here's my attempt at picking out some WTA names outside of the Big 3 (well, Big 2 now that Sharapova has withdrawn) who have the potential to make a splash at the US Open:

Sabine Lisicki: She's here mainly because she was a finalist at the last Grand Slam. I don't expect her to win the whole thing, given that she has yet to make it to the QFs of the US Open and that one deep run at a Slam does not automatically cure a player of their streakiness. But if she gets the right kind of draw and is in that mode where most of her shots land inside the lines, she could make life difficult for one or two higher-ranked players in her path.

Sloane Stephens: I hesitated at putting her here because she doesn't seem to handle the pressure of playing on home soil very well. But she did show signs of improvement in Cincinnati and she has a record of playing her best tennis at the Slams. If she gets a US Open draw similar to the kind of draw she's gotten at the last three Slams, she could very well make a run to the QFs.

Samantha Stosur: She's here not just because she won the 2011 US Open, but also because she backed that up with a decent QF showing at the next US Open and won this year's Carlsbad title over the same opponent (Azarenka) who just barely beat her in that 2012 US Open QF. A lot will depend on her draw and current form. But if I had to pick a non-top 10 player most capable of making a deep run, it'd probably be her.

Agnieszka Radwanska: The common word on her is that she's an admirably wily competitor who nonetheless gets hit off the court too often to be considered a true contender for Slam titles unless the 3 players in front of her all fall early. And even though the latter did happen at this Wimbledon, she still got outhit by Lisicki in the semis. Still...she's the World No. 4 for a reason, and stranger things have certainly happened this year than the 4th 3rd seed winning the US Open.

Petra Kvitova/Li Na: You know the drill with them: they spend one or two weeks every year reminding everyone why they're Grand Slam champions. Then they spend the rest of the year reminding everyone why they've won only one Slam each to date. If nothing else, they get an automatic spot on dark horse lists because they've actually proved in the past that they're capable of keeping it together long enough to win the biggest titles unlike so many other streaky players who don't even get that far.