US Open contenders (the women's top 3)
And now for the Big 3's US Open prospects, in ascending ranking order:
Maria Sharapova: I had originally written here about how it must have been a pretty frustrating year for Sharapova so far because she had two golden opportunities to win a Slam without her nemesis Serena in the way and couldn't take advantage. I also wrote about how she felt like a distant third in the US Open favorites category behind Azarenka and Serena but how a fierce competitor like her should never be counted out at a major no matter how scratchy her form looks beforehand.
Now, though, the official news is that Sharapova is out of the US Open because of injuries. This is hardly the first injury setback she has suffered and I have no doubt that she'll be back and more determined than ever, but it sadly ties back into my first initial statement about this year being a frustrating one for her and how bad luck is to blame for it more than anything else. All I can say here is that I wish Maria good luck with her recovery and hope that I'll see her back on court before long.
Victoria Azarenka: After her narrow victory over Serena in the Cincinnati final, she's definitely the player most capable of upsetting Serena. It should be noted, though, that Serena was clearly far from her best in that match (a fully rested Serena would almost certainly not have missed that sitter forehand while two points away from victory) and also that Azarenka's form was patchy at best throughout the tournament overall. For these reasons, I still wouldn't place Azarenka ahead of Serena as the top contender.
At the same time, I believe that it really is true that Azarenka is the second most likely player to hoist the US Open trophy. She still won't be able to beat Serena if the latter is playing at her very best, but she's the player who's the most poised to take advantage of a lapse in concentration or form from Serena, and she will come in with confidence from her recent win that Serena isn't as invincible as she might have seemed just after Roland Garros. Provided that no further injury mishaps occur (/anti-jinx), I would be very surprised if Azarenka doesn't defend her finalist points from last year at the very least regardless of the draw she gets.
Serena Williams: Ah, Serena. This Tennis.com article sums up the enigma and never-ending complexes that are Serena Williams better than I ever could, especially on how she tends to be more on edge at the US Open than at any other tournament because of the intense pressure she places on herself to do well at her home Slam. The US Open was a place of personal and competitive triumph for Serena last year, but it has also served as the place of some moments she'd rather forget like what transpired there in 2009 and 2011. It, in that sense, is much like Serena herself.
What do I think of Serena's prospects? I think that her aura has faded a bit after her early Wimbledon loss and recent loss to Azarenka and that the possibility of someone other than her winning a major title is easier to imagine now at this US Open than it was at any other point this year. I also think that she is still the de facto favorite for the US Open and that it will take a special combination of injuries, on-fire opponents, and/or errors on her part to take her down.
Above all, however, I think that Serena will be human. I think that she won't blaze effortlessly to the title without dropping a single set and that there will be moments when she feels the pressure hanging around her neck like a yoke and tightens up. Serena, so far, has had a pretty darn great year -- and it will still be a great year for her even if she doesn't win the US Open -- but it has also been a very human one at the same time. She has had long stretches in this season where she looks for all the world invincible, but she has also had memorable moments where she's reminded us that she's still capable of getting injured, beaten, letting opponents get into her head, and generally being a human being who gets nervous and upset. I suspect that we'll see a microcosm of all of this during her US Open run, and that she will have at least one tough battle after cruising through the first three or four rounds.
As to whether she survives that battle or not? It's anyone's call, including her opponent's and Serena's herself.













