Thoughts on the US Open draw (mostly for the men)
For some reason, I thought that the US Open draw ceremony would take place on Friday when I would already be on a plane to Thailand. It turns out that it actually happened today, which means that I could have waited until today to do some actual draw analysis for both the women and men. :/
Ah well, I probably wouldn't have had enough time to do a comprehensive analysis for both sides anyway, given that I have to wake up tomorrow at around 5 in the morning. And now that I've seen the draw, I can at least do a more in-depth analysis for the men. So I'm scrapping my initial plans to focus on the ATP players in the No. 4-7 range in one post and the top 3 in a second post, and doing just one post for general draw analysis here:
1) It turns out that Rafael Nadal nabbing the No. 2 spot just before the US Open was a great boon for him and the exact opposite for Andy Murray, as he gets a draw half that's considerably easier than the other one. Draws can unexpectedly fall apart and favorites can lose to unknowns, as we saw at this year's Wimbledon, and Nadal does have Isner/Monfils, Federer, and Janowicz/Gulbis as potential opponents. But anyone who claims that Nadal is not the clear US Open favorite, especially on the heels of his Canada-Cincinnati double, will have to do a lot of convincing.
2) That said, I don't think that this tournament will be a gimme for Nadal. Nadal has tended to struggle in the early rounds of Slams this season, even after tearing through all the Masters draws beforehand, and there's been a recent trend of the initially easier draw half turning out to be the tougher one by tournament's end. But if Nadal makes it to the second week, I don't really see anyone being able to stop his immense momentum unless one of Djokovic/Murray/del Potro manages to complete most of his matches in 3 sets and hence doesn't get too worn out before the final.
3) I genuinely have no idea who's going to emerge from the top half of the draw. Neither Djokovic or Murray were in stellar form in Canada or Cincinnati, but they have both been pretty good at saving their best tennis for the majors this season. Del Potro, as I pointed out before, has developed a trend of going deep in tournaments he was expected to lose early in and losing early in tournaments he was expected to go deep in. (That, and I do not want to jinx any of these players with my predictions.) I do think that all 3 of them should make it to the QFs, barring a major mishap, and that the QF and SF days for that half of the draw are going to be verrrry interesting regardless of who's actually playing on them.
4) The Ferrer-Gasquet quarter is, depending on who you ask, laughably weak or potentially the most fascinating quarter of the draw. I'm siding with the latter opinion as that quarter contains Janowicz and Gulbis, the two most dangerous floaters who have a great opportunity to make the semis here if the voices in their heads stay quiet for long enough. And I'm not willing to count out the top two seeds doing something worth of actual notice too, as Ferrer (in spite of his terrible form lately) has always played his best at the majors and Gasquet might have finally gotten a path to his first Slam QF in six (!) years that not even he can screw up.
5) For a long time, the men's draws at Grand Slams felt relatively routine and balanced with each quarter guaranteed to be anchored by a member of the Big Four and a member of the Medium Four. Lately, however, Federer's ranking drop and Ferrer and Gasquet's improved seedings have thrown off this balance and increased the probability of someone outside of the Big Four breaking through. We got the first new Slam semifinalist in 3 years at the last Slam and I actually think that if Nadal doesn't win this Slam, we'll have a surprise finalist on the men's side.
6) Also, I'm really regretting not waiting until today to do my analysis for the women because their draw was clearly made by someone with a sense of humor. Errani and Wozniacki being the top two seeds in a quarter! Venus having to face Kirsten Flipkens again! Azarenka and Kvitova being in the same quarter yet again! Serena and Sloane Stephens being in the same section! Radwanska and Lisicki being in the same section too! Alas...