March 2015: situation getting worse all over and better nowhere
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/crisiswatch/2015/139.aspx
CrisisWatch N°139 | (02 Mar 2015)
Conflict Risk Alerts
Bangladesh
Yemen
Conflict Resolution Opportunities
Libya
Myanmar
Niger
Nigeria
Syria
Ukraine
Venezuela
Yemen
In February, the political crisis worsened in Yemen, whose territorial disintegration is in danger of accelerating, while in Bangladesh political violence threatens to further destabilise the country; Venezuela’s downward spiral also continued amid deep political polarisation. Deadly violence rose in Libya, where the prospects of a diplomatic solution to the internal conflict receded further; in Syria, where the regime and its allies initiated a major campaign against rebels in the south; and in areas affected by the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria and Niger. Serious fighting in Myanmar’s Kokang region undermined the ongoing peace talks, while a new peace deal for Ukraine was followed by major military defeat for the government in the east.
Yemen’s political crisis deepened in early February when the Huthis created a “revolutionary council” and associated bodies in a move clearly outside the constitution. Issuing a statement from Aden after escaping his Sanaa house arrest, former President Hadi rescinded his January resignation and rejected Huthi actions as a coup, raising fears of an acceleration of the conflict and territorial disintegration. Despite the limited ability of external actors to influence events (see our latest Conflict Alert), the best way of preventing the start of serious hostilities may now be for the Gulf Cooperation Council and the UN to sponsor emergency talks outside of Yemen between core stakeholders.
In Bangladesh an anti-corruption court issued an arrest warrant for the leader of the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP), Khaleda Zia. If the warrant is executed, it could seriously escalate the political crisis that has seen over 100 killed in anti-government protests since early January. The crisis could gravely destabilise the country unless both the government and the BNP move urgently to reduce tensions (as explained in our new report). In Venezuela, Caracas mayor Antonio Ledezma was arrested after the government claimed to have foiled yet another U.S.-backed opposition plot to overthrow President Maduro. Six people including a fourteen-year-old boy were killed allegedly during or after anti-government protests, prompting criticism of security forces.
Libya’s crisis took another turn for the worse as the Tobruk-Based House of Representatives withdrew from UN-sponsored talks aimed at reaching a diplomatic solution. But Libya’s rival authorities are evenly matched: to halt the slide toward all-out civil war and state collapse they must work toward a political solution (as we explain in our new report). Deepening political divisions and the resultant military clashes have facilitated the growth of jihadi armed groups. On 15 February, an Islamic State-affiliated armed group issued a video in which militants beheaded 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians. In response, Egypt launched aerial attacks on Derna and Sirte, reportedly killing scores of people. President Assad’s regime initiated a major campaign against rebels in southern Syria, aided by Iranian and Hizbollah forces. Their participation was openly reported by pro-regime media, and represents a major escalation by non-Syrian, pro-regime forces in this part of the country. The regime and its allies also attacked rebel-held towns north of Aleppo, paired with smaller escalations inside the city where UN envoy Staffan de Mistura has been trying to broker a “freeze” of fighting.
The Boko Haram insurgency in northern Nigeria continued to spread. Following deadly Boko Haram attacks in Niger’s Diffa region, Niger’s government scaled up its response, and with military help from Chad launched several counter-attacks and airstrikes. On 10 February, Niger’s parliament authorised the army to fight Boko Haram on Nigerian territory. In Nigeria, armed forces working with troops from neighbouring Chad and Cameroon reclaimed several towns near Lake Chad. The insurgents meanwhile stepped up suicide bomb attacks on several northern cities. The Nigerian military’s claim that its operations against Boko Haram left no troops available for election security prompted the Electoral Commission to postpone national polls, aggravating tensions at a time when election-related violence is already high and on the rise (see our recent blog post).
In Myanmar fierce fighting broke out in Kokang region in Shan state in early February as the ethnic Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), apparently assisted by other groups, attempted to seize control of Kokang capital Laukkai. The fighting, the most serious in the country since 2009, prompted at least 30,000 and possibly up to 100,000 people to flee across the border to China. It has created further difficulties for the peace process, now unlikely to progress further before the November elections. Ukraine suffered one of its heaviest defeats yet with the fall of a major military garrison at the strategic railway town of Debaltseve to rebels just days after the signing of a new peace deal in Minsk. The defeat further weakened President Poroshenko’s administration, as the country comes under increasing pressure from Russia and slips deeper into economic crisis.
Deteriorated Situations
Libya, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen
Improved Situations
March 2015 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk Alert
Bangladesh, Yemen
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
