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Forex Technical Analysis: Best Trading Techniques & indicator for Profit
welcome to the Soviet a habit for me a 20 second of January Sunday oh well Derby database doing some very simple chart analysis in association with the CFTC neck traders decisions as a backup tool well it's all pretty simple in terms of the way we're going to look at the charts now done a few videos on CFTC net traders this year fam main focus has been on us d JPY CFTC note traders indicated or warned at the top when we've reached 118 and the USD corrected to the downside really nice now it had a little bit of ironic so I'm just leave my updated view on usd/jpy I'm going to really focus today on a ed JP by which I think could offer a really good risk to reward trade again gonna be using CFTC next traders as back up their terms the charts we look at the map starting with usd/jpy and updating our view and then after after I've looked at the choice to make some points to do with yet forex market analysis but first of all let's take a look at the charts chart of the usd/jpy they did not discuss through the levels i've drawn in a month wild wrong why I have where I think prices could be going but first of all let's look at the latest cftc net traders report for new viewers i'm just going to give a quick overview of them if you're familiar with them you can basically wine forward for about about a minute and a half site in terms of decisions why do we consider an important well basically show fugitive itions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange sizable part of the forex markets is big enough to give us an idea if a currency is undervalued or overvalued by simply looking at two groups on the report and I've highlighted them you have the non commercials in red these are large XD funds hedge fund bench currency guns etc they tend to be heavily netlog historically at important market tops and heavily met short at important market bottoms they don't have a great performance of catching market terms now we want to compare their positions of the commercials in Greece there the smart money they are hey chose okay listen p hedging a cash position they're not making or losing any money in the market so they do have though it's a very objective view of forex markets and basically have a deep understanding of the fundamentals and they know when a currency is run 25 the downside of 25 the upside that's the only time they're going to move their hedges aggressively keep in mind they're not making or losing any money so what we won't do see how the two groups line up against each other so what do we got this week we've got non commercials bullish bets on the n20 8560 short bets on the japanese yen bearish bets 106,000 390 so basically they're nearly four to one in favor of bearish bets on the end so they're basically bullish USD commercials on the other side 160 4514 bullish bets on the end 50 7301 bearish bets on the yen so they have three two one bullish in terms of their ratio on the yen or basically wanted to be short usd/jpy and this is the latest reporters want to go back to the start of the month and compare the positions now with them now when we broke up strongly get above 180 these ratios were three two one then okay so what we did see was obviously sorry we trampled down a bit got back up tried to break out above 118 came back through the number that's where we decided to sell and then you have a really nice move to the downside and see this red candle here I've highlighted it it's the day this report was compiled I last Tuesday so you've got the commercials yo still bearish of the usd/jpy they're not aggressively moving their edges and the non commercials are bullish the usd/jpy okay now in terms of the running we've seen a nice rally last week ahsoka could get down to 111 but it could be a rally is there has been a rally unfortunately as what bear is shibu despair it should come up okay and what we've done is we've now got a resistance line here it's about 115 60 top the tail top of the table top sale two bodies tail two bodies a couple of bodies over here and almost in line with that body there and also the top of that candle there so you look good resistance here so in terms of our view of this paper it still remain bearish of it once you've got all this is this level of resistance here if it is broken I'm sure a lot of people have seen this is resistance we can easily run up to the round number that's where i think you know we would fail okay also got the 20-day moving average so good about 116 seller bank threw 116 if you're not in the pair in my view or take her through this low here she gets through 114 she'll move to the downside now in terms of the first level of some support that should we draw it in it's actually in our view the 111 level I did this off the longer-term charts in the previous videos I won't do it now she just is 111 if I could draw straight lines that's the first major level in our view doing another level here why because the Trump election break out in this blue candle reversal Aaron M if you take the view that the markets are moving from risk on the risk of which we do then we could easily come all the way down this step 111 is the first support level but a longer-term level target it which could be talking is this level here so yo argue is you have a bearish bias yeah it's been a good run down yeah it hasn't yet we have at a rally now but terms of non commercial commercial positions yeah we think there is a more downside to come sure we could pop are in the short term at the yen or usd/jpy can be a wild contract as we know but we have a bearish bias now in order to do is go and look at the aud against the JPY a monthly chart referred sorry i ed JP by just to look at the big levels before we go to the daily chart okay now in terms of thumb yah yah's a nice downtrend here and then we've made a rally okay now in terms of resistance we're going to shred council here we're at a big rejection okay hi is 87 52 blue candle coming back up to test the level so these sudden 52 is the level of resistance but you we know that obviously round numbers obviously tend to attract price I think you could say that the major resistance top this candle here 8888 arm for us is the line in the sand in terms of closed above that level that would negate our various thumbs in terms of some support where is it your three candles here we curtail their two bodies it's about 8620 near round numbers you could say 86 is at the key support level soap 88 key resistance 86 key support where is the near-term sporting say 84 however I've drawn our target down at 80 Reese I've done that is that's the breakout on the Trump rally and yeah I think I've said it in other videos i think that the trump rally has run too far we could see some risk off and that will mean a lower or z dollar net they're the big levels i see them on the monthly chart let's switch to daily chart look at the CFTC's as well okay here we are on the daily chart let's have a quick look at the CFTC net traders now what I've done is to put up the Aussie dollar against the US dollar to see the ratios then we need to cross them through the ratios of usd/jpy obviously to get the commercials views across right now in terms of non commercials 42,000 not long thirty-seven thousand dollars short that even commercials are 24,000 sure I was sorry norm 21,000 short bad even they both got slightly long bias what we do know from reading this report regularly though is the commercials will start to sell the Aussie dollar more an ounce rallied and you exceed it's already started they were made long the week before by nearly three two one they've actually liquidated 12,000 198 long positions okay so we got just the sake of easy calculation got evens on this report and we got three the ones on the other reports so across three two one with the commercials favoring the n over at the aud net we go to the chart um what we've got here There is obviously we can see this poke above 87 287 52 we can't see obviously going further back was done that already on the monthly Charlie brewery said 88 the round number we closed above that level that would negate our various stunts okay so if the Aussie dollar was going to bus 87 target this candle we would sell it back through 87 okay and stop will be back from 88 now that's if we break higher if we break Claire I've drawn the level of sport top of these two candles hears about 8620 a little bit more confirmation you come through the bodies come through SI 8580 broke that metal then stop I think just be behind 87 pretty about 8750 sometime well back from the round number okay now we do start to break lower you obviously have this support at 84 to noted on the monthly chart but yet this support level here 80 could be targeted there's the reversal on the Trump rally and off she goes the move to risk of you know this Trump Manny could be completely retrait so in terms of a zjp life yeah it goes higher we'd expect breakout sale for gostrey sport we've expected to go down to 84 and then possibly even 80 so that's what we think of aud JPY Sokka better flirt a short summary there now in terms of my view that's my view right now can obviously change in line with the market conditions yeah if you want are a chance analysis things simply click on the link beneath this video now in terms of just for new viewers in terms of CFD seeing the traders position you can't just follow the commercials okay they are not making or losing any money with this hedges they could be wrong in the short term doesn't really matter to them of course from our point of it we need to use our technicals and good stock protection that terms report takes that as well get nice reading it and you have the different groups move and get what ratios are irrelevant yeah in each currency subtly different but it's something you soon get used to gives you clues to where the chart might be gay and also I think yeah for me so it always focused Smee on the big levels on the chart and luckily I didn't see them draw many lines and your charts and you don't do anything really complicated at the answer is now I don't put for the illustration purposes in this video I haven't used any volatility or momentum to confirm moves which I would normally do however yep yep it's all personal preference you can do it just clear price action my view um yep in terms of levels on a chart you just want to focus on those and reading big levels that matter ok as you can get them by looking at a weekly chart or a monthly charge breaking the big levels then line them up with the daily charts ok there is yeah I've said it before in other videos a sort of some things beginners coming in the markets just do lots of lines on a chart yes what mr. second so true absolutely meaningless else you want the big levels that matter ok so you can have a nice clean Chuck obviously in terms of yet confirming through levels will do in different ways yeah I use like Sybil to be momentum yet the other people use price action but I would always say but if you're using stops you never happened to close to a firm number it always happen a little back yet from any level of resistance yeah just so you don't do yeah if Yuri believe in a position give it a bit wider of stock ok for me yeah it seemed that traders should be yeah a technique that yet traders that you should learn imagine because it's just so valuable of course the report is free as well just takes a little bit of time to get used supporting us time well spent in my view I think I've covered everything that has been covering the city SI that is to be a great day thank you very much for watching me as Peter take care have a good day
