#chart set ups

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Forex Trading Best Trades EUR/USD EUR/JPY Analysis & P v EV The Key To FX Profits

welcome to FX hat Sunday 23rd of divine gonna be looking at a couple of trades set up Salem you look at Euro USD euro JPY moving to charts in a moment I'll be discussing not just the technical levels but also big fundamentals that will be driving the charts and also the sentiment of traders also using my favorite tool in forex trading particular euro JPY CFTC net trade decisions as you unfamiliar with it you can check out more about it on the video link beneath this video also the beginners when I finished with the charts I'm going to go through expected value of payouts okay and probability in relation to this a lot of traders who come in the markets don't understand expected payouts asymmetric risk etc you're serious about forex trading you need to understand why because it will make your trading a lot easier and make taking losers a lot easier as well we all know that most traders are risk averse don't like taking their losses now come a little bit later for beginners but let's move to the charts and let's start crystal with a euro USD o USD monthly charts very quickly forget the day chart to slight look at the bigger timeframe so really clearly see the trend and this nice bullish shiro uptrend there before we just forget some big levels on the charts on a draw your attention to this fact the top which is the US dollar four point five percent undervalued on yield differentials Yanks other major currencies that's from beginning of last week it's got worse big under valuations like this just historically don't ask but they come into place obviously because of investor sentiment and investor sentiment is a very bullish or bearish at the dollar our ECB obviously expected to cut stingless and raise rates by year-end i've actually denied they're going to do this and point it to the reasons why market simply isn't believing them push the euro up the other side the feather expects to hold rates but reduce the balance sheet the federal busy coming up this week now in terms of the Fed what can we expect from them well I think obviously no interest rate rise I would expect a very cautious Janet Yellen on interest rate rises I think she'll be dovish okay but they have said and yelling said this herself they want to reduce the balance sheet would you see quickly and this could be the trigger for a dollar rally not just some euro reducing the balance sheet is effectively quantitative tightening so it's basically like an interest rate rise the de'longhi column is sent don't see it as an interest rate rise to find kind of odd but it but it needs so I think yeah market very bullish of the euro very bearish of the dollar where the big levels let's go here and yeah we're heading for 117 okay can we get there yeah of course again we're pretty close now can we get above the level yeah I think so if we do get above the level though I think the Euro rallies on borrowed time a lot of people are saying it could go up to 121 and if you look from pure technical perspective okay these two bodies they are the next resistance level up of course anything's possible I think they will get their thing 118 could get there I just don't see too much more euro strength more now obviously alert for the euro too weak a little bit how far could we go down well it is a really nice ceramic market very very bullish of the euro sentiment so I think we're as a decent downside break I'll be kind of aiming for this breakout point here okay you can see yeah these candles sorry that kind of body tail tail tail body tail and then the break camp um so I would say down towards they're suburi about 109 sorry can't draw a straight line there we go down towards possibly 109 50 obviously we have to see how things pan out but let's just go over to the daily chart and look at some possible levels of entry on the shorter time frame the us the daily chart obviously was in the month chart versus the big levels and obviously at that level of support I picked out is a long way from the price then 109 50 level um plenty of levels of support in between that have to be taken out or we can target if you're a bearish but just go look at them in the moment the press'll nice rally app as we've seen sit below 117 key a monthly resistance goes through 117 13 let's say I'd sell it back through 116 70s look for the breakout to fail don't come you know to a lien just assume the 117 level will hold like I said we could even go up to 118 but if we do I'll do another video right if we don't rally where could we go that's the first level of support through this candle high here it's very close to the round number saluting it clear down with leave 30 bits so coming that one 1517 now in terms of where's the next step is for is the real key support you normally looking for the 20-day moving average to be really good support I don't think so I'm just going to snake up as if price comes down I don't think it's going to provide much support the real big level of support for us and you can see it if you look at the volumes of what institutions were doing is down at 114 sold off through the round number okay settled on it and then the next day what you get is big buying come in and push her up yeah also if you look at the 114 level you got a few pegs through here with the tails this tail here I think the low was one sixth sorry one 1371 so it's at 114 level it really really needs to be taken out in my view um if we do take a level I think that would turn things in favor of the euro bears but we have one thing yep I often get asked is yeah that's a key level whether you wait for it I rather have an aggressive entry to secure oh so over ball and you have to do a couple of traits I've got the opportunity to take one out maybe and the level sell the other side or even take both down I'll explain obviously yeah what I do when I do my daily charts in the member Center just wanna see how the price X obviously unfolds right now 114 gives way where are we going then ah well we should go back to there so really 112 is yeah obviously this big breakout here they would be the levels I've been looking Elba's Lee I'm looking for it to run down further longer-term but yeah I pick up to 112 I'd be more than happy terms of momentum I put it on the chart over bolts gastic but it is chopping it's a no other used to mean just to show however both the euro is sent the RSI flat above thumb yes 70 so just gives indication photography good downside what didn't mention earlier obviously you know you have got on the CFTC's yeah commercial selling coming in yeah big speculators buying done we just using that as a backup factor isn't the reason for me doing this trade you did not extremes at the moment this is a supporting factor Presley I think the big fundamentals that of the interest rate differentials and the fact we have got bullish sentiment should bring the euro down so we'll see that's my review of euro USD the Euro Japanese yen daily chart and just fraud rules and levels as well look at the CFTC net traders because they look interesting to us this week non-commercial sort of actually spelt that wrong had like a six point two two on terms of long as we shorts a British and they've added in twenty-two thousand contracts this week commercials on your side six point forward one terms of shorts over long so bearish they got in twenty four thousand contracts this week so speed up over last week divergence poof's between the groups to above ten we like directions is about ten to twelve point six now in terms of the chart last video we did said yeah we thought the breakout above 130 would fail you did but we saw we had to come out because we just didn't clear the 129 level and the day I have my own is the one that we've actually highlighted their report the Bo gee sorry Bo g b oj ec b candle because what we had was the Bank of Japan market seeing is very bearish interest rates and of course we saw the ECB yeah traders saw them as really bullish so we pushed off to the upside but when he got to 130 we've elected to come back in through the 130 level now from our perspective this candle here looks a really good reversal candle yeah we test it I don't think we're going to decisively take out the 131 levels so from our perspective it be a cell back to that level but weary now need to take out 129 well it's got 20 days sneaking up got some tails here yeah we just really really need to see that taken out I think give a little bit more room 128 65 I think that then we'll crank the trend in favor of the Bears they're simply coming short it's a ggressive entry again running two trades so we can yeah very our exposure into the level maybe take one tray down sell back in the other side bring our stock down or take both trades out again we'll see how we go but if this level breaks yeah I just feel we're going to be going down to 125 okay from our perspective that is the level that's the big breakout this is the level we should target by virginals between the groups Trust is really good and I like the fact they've speeded up and they speeded up into 2 1:29 non commercials in live you probably don't have enough power to take out 1:31 decisively and also what I like about trading the euro yen I prefer it to euro USD we stock markets been relatively strong um that should be really hurting the N it isn't on the Euro I think we've got the potential for some risk cost next week any correction stocks that's actually baked i think will help firm the yen so i really like the look of this chance setup so we shall see how it pans out welcome back off that view there – for experts that's my view as of right now obviously it can change in line with the market conditions if your awful forex course full trading techniques and course of Datatech can last as major forex base simply click on the link beneath this video now I want to talk about now is probability of trades expected payouts in relation to a trading edge and all experienced successful traders understand the concept okay most beginners don't even think about it you need to consider it if you haven't it's very important in terms of helping you become a successful trader now just in relation as well and those give you a quick summary of probability and expected payoffs and it comes from NASA seem to let one of my favorite traders fantastic books of course the Black Swan and fooled by randomness I'm just going to show it to you I take about a minute then I'm going to come back and discuss it in more detail so here is the summary you welcome back to a short summary from nessam today for the expected value and probability and also put a little bit of a conclusion in with prospect theory your beginning of coming in the markets go in the cut prospect theory it just shows how risk-averse we are as humans and basically how we hate taking loss and slash done a video on it which you can look up on our channel but I think one thing that separates out successful traders from amateurs is they this system was strategies edge in relation to probability and expected payers it's not the probability of the trade that matters it has to be seen in relation to the expected payout now when I say yeah I'm looking at high probability trade setups in my view that's in my view the market view might be different okay and very often when I do this yeah I know I've got a high probability of being stopped out but if it goes in my favour the expected payout is fantastic to my risk trade our very own looks in our member Center you can see the trade I'm risking the most stop and you can see that the market is just generally against me in my view however my expected payout in my view of researches against my strategy but I get it right is probably about 3 to 1 or more so I don't really mind if I'm stopped out because yeah I'm looking at the expected pan as well as the probability okay so I think yeah do some research on it and yeah if you're a beginner you just see your losses in a different light yeah if you're trading in a probability based market you are always focused on the expected payout of your trade you not interested in being right the majority of the time we're just interested in the risk to reward the expected payout against what you're risking I think what's getting to that mode of thinking losses will never really bother you well that there was bother you no one likes losing but yeah you won't get frustrated you won't get angry at the markets a lot of traders do right that is my summary and that is that the end of the video thanks watching our usual take care have a good day you

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Best Forex Indicators - A Trading Tool for High Probability Trades the CFTC COT

welcome to this video Becca which is on Saturday 23rd July what can be doing is looking at a trade setup in the Australian dollar against the US dollar and we're looking at it from a technical perspective and how to use a very powerful tool to back up your chart analysis I can seem to be on those valuable tools any forex trader can use but hardly any traders use this tool it's the CFD see new traders for regular viewers of my co I think everyone knows how much I rate this tool now your regular view you can just go straight to the chart up at the timeline of where the chart analysis starts below but for those of you not familiar with CFTC neck traders just want to give you a little bit of an introduction now in terms of report it's totally free it's released each week and said in previous videos if I was asked to pay a few thousand dollars for it I'd do that cheerfully why because the reporters have been so important to me over the years and it's got me such great yeah entries at major turning points many reinforces what I see on the chart it effectively allows you to trade with a group of traders you have an outstanding track record of catching the big turning points for the yet the risk is low the reward is high next in terms of the traders that we like to follow they're called the commercial so who are the commercial as well oh it is I'm just going to do a little love story board of the groups that are on the CFTC net traders report and why I like to trade with the commercial so here is the storyboard back in a minute and a half and then we'll be looking at the chart you I'll be back after a short summary there have three groups that appear on the cftc net traders positions report now in terms of the commercials what I want to do now is just show you a chart of the Aussie dollar against the US dollar and have last week the commercials movements against the speculators indicated that a level of resistance was going to hold and just going to show you the chart and then what I'm going to do is come back with some more tips on how to read the report and get the most epic let's go through the chart first of all okay here we have a chart of the Aussie dollar ha daily and what I've done is I've drawn a level of resistance at around 7670 now that level actually is also a level of resistance on the bigger dar weekly and monthly charts there we want to know if it is going to hold or if it is going to break and cftc net traders indicate to us that it's going to hold now what you'll see on the safety cnet traders is non commercials are there speculators big hedge funds etc or basically long the Aussie by ratio of two to one they're also if you look adding in a lot of Long's fifteen thousand seven hundred and four long's that going in and they're taking out shorts they're taken out 1511 now if you look back to the chart you'll see four candles struggling to take out that level now one of the commercials doing urban speculators trying to push it higher that basically smart money hedges are selling the Aussie dollar if you look at the ratio of lulls the shorts they hold four times as many shorts as Long's they're doing the exact opposite of the speculators they've added in nine thousand four hundred ninety shorts and they've taken out 593 long so you take this is the week ending 19 to the sick you'll see on those four days where it's trying to press up it can't quite do it and then you get a nice red candle to the downside now we've slipped below the 20-day moving average and we'd be looking for a sell-off them to the 72 level now what we do know is if the Aussie breaks up the commercials are still going to be selling ok so I would say that it did rally it could get to the top of that candle by binding to the 6th maybe run all again test the highs but it's going to be a selling opportunity if it gets up there that now is a big level of resistance now obviously you can draw the levels of resistance on the charts they leave weekly monthly but when you know that you've got the commercials on your side on the CFTC's it really reinforces that that level of resistance is probably going to hold so that's just a quick review of the Aussie dollar our CFD cnet traders I will come back after that short summary their hunger using cfd senior traders with your chance now in terms of when the groups do diverge aggressively against each other the commercials would normally come out on top now in terms of them coming out on top that one thing to keep in mind is they're not fussy about market time ok so they're not making or losing any money they're just hedges second was run on a little bit against them before coming back from our perspective we need to employ strict money management so we need to confirm a technical level as held it we need since we've just seen before getting in now from our perspective here I wouldn't just sell into that level of resistance we left it come down over a hundred pips are in at 75 80 and now we're down at about 70 450 so it's a decent profits so from to hoping it's going to roll down to 72 to make it a really good profit but what I do know is of a competence to hold this one because I know the commercials are going to sell any rallies back to the upside so just giving us a little bit of confidence in getting in the market and in holding the trade in terms of when you look at the CFD cnet traders if we currencies got a little bit of a different personality it takes a little bit of practice to read the report ok and get used to it but if you just focus on big divergences and then look at your charts you'll get some great hi old sentries I mean you're going to see anything in the positions every week for example sometimes you don't see anything in the positions whatsoever this week when i'm looking at the positions i can see a good few setups in addition to the aussie dollar with a cft scenic traders give me clues of what might happen on the chart CC loading it to the Member Center before the end of the weekend but in terms of cfd CNN traders when you can get at all for free okay which allows you to track smart money that has got to be a value to any trader I've always been surprised at how few traders look at CFTC net traders I strongly recommend are you go check them out if you haven't just a fantastic trading tool anyway that's the video for today thank you very much for watching me as usual with any questions or queries please feel free to email me you

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Forex Technical Analysis: Best Trading Techniques & indicator for Profit

welcome to the Soviet a habit for me a 20 second of January Sunday oh well Derby database doing some very simple chart analysis in association with the CFTC neck traders decisions as a backup tool well it's all pretty simple in terms of the way we're going to look at the charts now done a few videos on CFTC net traders this year fam main focus has been on us d JPY CFTC note traders indicated or warned at the top when we've reached 118 and the USD corrected to the downside really nice now it had a little bit of ironic so I'm just leave my updated view on usd/jpy I'm going to really focus today on a ed JP by which I think could offer a really good risk to reward trade again gonna be using CFTC next traders as back up their terms the charts we look at the map starting with usd/jpy and updating our view and then after after I've looked at the choice to make some points to do with yet forex market analysis but first of all let's take a look at the charts chart of the usd/jpy they did not discuss through the levels i've drawn in a month wild wrong why I have where I think prices could be going but first of all let's look at the latest cftc net traders report for new viewers i'm just going to give a quick overview of them if you're familiar with them you can basically wine forward for about about a minute and a half site in terms of decisions why do we consider an important well basically show fugitive itions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange sizable part of the forex markets is big enough to give us an idea if a currency is undervalued or overvalued by simply looking at two groups on the report and I've highlighted them you have the non commercials in red these are large XD funds hedge fund bench currency guns etc they tend to be heavily netlog historically at important market tops and heavily met short at important market bottoms they don't have a great performance of catching market terms now we want to compare their positions of the commercials in Greece there the smart money they are hey chose okay listen p hedging a cash position they're not making or losing any money in the market so they do have though it's a very objective view of forex markets and basically have a deep understanding of the fundamentals and they know when a currency is run 25 the downside of 25 the upside that's the only time they're going to move their hedges aggressively keep in mind they're not making or losing any money so what we won't do see how the two groups line up against each other so what do we got this week we've got non commercials bullish bets on the n20 8560 short bets on the japanese yen bearish bets 106,000 390 so basically they're nearly four to one in favor of bearish bets on the end so they're basically bullish USD commercials on the other side 160 4514 bullish bets on the end 50 7301 bearish bets on the yen so they have three two one bullish in terms of their ratio on the yen or basically wanted to be short usd/jpy and this is the latest reporters want to go back to the start of the month and compare the positions now with them now when we broke up strongly get above 180 these ratios were three two one then okay so what we did see was obviously sorry we trampled down a bit got back up tried to break out above 118 came back through the number that's where we decided to sell and then you have a really nice move to the downside and see this red candle here I've highlighted it it's the day this report was compiled I last Tuesday so you've got the commercials yo still bearish of the usd/jpy they're not aggressively moving their edges and the non commercials are bullish the usd/jpy okay now in terms of the running we've seen a nice rally last week ahsoka could get down to 111 but it could be a rally is there has been a rally unfortunately as what bear is shibu despair it should come up okay and what we've done is we've now got a resistance line here it's about 115 60 top the tail top of the table top sale two bodies tail two bodies a couple of bodies over here and almost in line with that body there and also the top of that candle there so you look good resistance here so in terms of our view of this paper it still remain bearish of it once you've got all this is this level of resistance here if it is broken I'm sure a lot of people have seen this is resistance we can easily run up to the round number that's where i think you know we would fail okay also got the 20-day moving average so good about 116 seller bank threw 116 if you're not in the pair in my view or take her through this low here she gets through 114 she'll move to the downside now in terms of the first level of some support that should we draw it in it's actually in our view the 111 level I did this off the longer-term charts in the previous videos I won't do it now she just is 111 if I could draw straight lines that's the first major level in our view doing another level here why because the Trump election break out in this blue candle reversal Aaron M if you take the view that the markets are moving from risk on the risk of which we do then we could easily come all the way down this step 111 is the first support level but a longer-term level target it which could be talking is this level here so yo argue is you have a bearish bias yeah it's been a good run down yeah it hasn't yet we have at a rally now but terms of non commercial commercial positions yeah we think there is a more downside to come sure we could pop are in the short term at the yen or usd/jpy can be a wild contract as we know but we have a bearish bias now in order to do is go and look at the aud against the JPY a monthly chart referred sorry i ed JP by just to look at the big levels before we go to the daily chart okay now in terms of thumb yah yah's a nice downtrend here and then we've made a rally okay now in terms of resistance we're going to shred council here we're at a big rejection okay hi is 87 52 blue candle coming back up to test the level so these sudden 52 is the level of resistance but you we know that obviously round numbers obviously tend to attract price I think you could say that the major resistance top this candle here 8888 arm for us is the line in the sand in terms of closed above that level that would negate our various thumbs in terms of some support where is it your three candles here we curtail their two bodies it's about 8620 near round numbers you could say 86 is at the key support level soap 88 key resistance 86 key support where is the near-term sporting say 84 however I've drawn our target down at 80 Reese I've done that is that's the breakout on the Trump rally and yeah I think I've said it in other videos i think that the trump rally has run too far we could see some risk off and that will mean a lower or z dollar net they're the big levels i see them on the monthly chart let's switch to daily chart look at the CFTC's as well okay here we are on the daily chart let's have a quick look at the CFTC net traders now what I've done is to put up the Aussie dollar against the US dollar to see the ratios then we need to cross them through the ratios of usd/jpy obviously to get the commercials views across right now in terms of non commercials 42,000 not long thirty-seven thousand dollars short that even commercials are 24,000 sure I was sorry norm 21,000 short bad even they both got slightly long bias what we do know from reading this report regularly though is the commercials will start to sell the Aussie dollar more an ounce rallied and you exceed it's already started they were made long the week before by nearly three two one they've actually liquidated 12,000 198 long positions okay so we got just the sake of easy calculation got evens on this report and we got three the ones on the other reports so across three two one with the commercials favoring the n over at the aud net we go to the chart um what we've got here There is obviously we can see this poke above 87 287 52 we can't see obviously going further back was done that already on the monthly Charlie brewery said 88 the round number we closed above that level that would negate our various stunts okay so if the Aussie dollar was going to bus 87 target this candle we would sell it back through 87 okay and stop will be back from 88 now that's if we break higher if we break Claire I've drawn the level of sport top of these two candles hears about 8620 a little bit more confirmation you come through the bodies come through SI 8580 broke that metal then stop I think just be behind 87 pretty about 8750 sometime well back from the round number okay now we do start to break lower you obviously have this support at 84 to noted on the monthly chart but yet this support level here 80 could be targeted there's the reversal on the Trump rally and off she goes the move to risk of you know this Trump Manny could be completely retrait so in terms of a zjp life yeah it goes higher we'd expect breakout sale for gostrey sport we've expected to go down to 84 and then possibly even 80 so that's what we think of aud JPY Sokka better flirt a short summary there now in terms of my view that's my view right now can obviously change in line with the market conditions yeah if you want are a chance analysis things simply click on the link beneath this video now in terms of just for new viewers in terms of CFD seeing the traders position you can't just follow the commercials okay they are not making or losing any money with this hedges they could be wrong in the short term doesn't really matter to them of course from our point of it we need to use our technicals and good stock protection that terms report takes that as well get nice reading it and you have the different groups move and get what ratios are irrelevant yeah in each currency subtly different but it's something you soon get used to gives you clues to where the chart might be gay and also I think yeah for me so it always focused Smee on the big levels on the chart and luckily I didn't see them draw many lines and your charts and you don't do anything really complicated at the answer is now I don't put for the illustration purposes in this video I haven't used any volatility or momentum to confirm moves which I would normally do however yep yep it's all personal preference you can do it just clear price action my view um yep in terms of levels on a chart you just want to focus on those and reading big levels that matter ok as you can get them by looking at a weekly chart or a monthly charge breaking the big levels then line them up with the daily charts ok there is yeah I've said it before in other videos a sort of some things beginners coming in the markets just do lots of lines on a chart yes what mr. second so true absolutely meaningless else you want the big levels that matter ok so you can have a nice clean Chuck obviously in terms of yet confirming through levels will do in different ways yeah I use like Sybil to be momentum yet the other people use price action but I would always say but if you're using stops you never happened to close to a firm number it always happen a little back yet from any level of resistance yeah just so you don't do yeah if Yuri believe in a position give it a bit wider of stock ok for me yeah it seemed that traders should be yeah a technique that yet traders that you should learn imagine because it's just so valuable of course the report is free as well just takes a little bit of time to get used supporting us time well spent in my view I think I've covered everything that has been covering the city SI that is to be a great day thank you very much for watching me as Peter take care have a good day

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Forex Chart Analysis - Technical Fundamental & Sentiment USD JPY Best FX Trades

oke of the sphere deck which is on Sunday the first of January 2017 so happy New Year to everyone watching the video now in terms of David on to just give my updated outlook for the usd/jpy we look at some charts in a moment now in terms of usd/jpy we did a video just before Christmas member saying we expected the usd/jpy how to correct to the downside it's come off its highs but it has been yet very very firm yeah we're still not too far away from the highs if you look at the media media generally is calling for a usd/jpy to go to 120 that obviously could go 220 my own view though is I think the odds of a break to the dam site are high and in terms of thumb yeah japanese i just think the bearish fundamentals are peaking now and i think after the sheer magnitude of the rise the correction should be pretty sizable now in terms of the big fundamentals behind the chancel I'll run through them in detail swirled I do my weekly forecast but yeah the yen yeah does not do well when you've got risk on okay you have had very firm stock markets there's been a very bullish view of what yeah the trump presidency will do for not just America but for the global economy seeing all the positives and none of the negatives now terms of the positives yeah I'm sure that Trump loves policies will create growth in us that doesn't mean higher interest rates though that can't be good for stocks long term and US stocks aside US interest rates going up is really bad news for emerging markets hundreds of trillions of dollars of debt denominated in dollars it's got very expensive to pay back now if you look at how the dollar has moved up on you have many emerging market currencies something to seek big defaults in emerging markets obviously over in China big problems the one still very soft over in Europe got a banking crisis the oldest bank in the world monte de pasión to the sentence happened to be bailed out Deutsche Bank shorts yet settled it's fine with us regulators its capital base is very very weak I see your banking crisis yeah emerging markets stocks generally overvalued I just see the correction coming their stocks were obviously pretty firm in December but we can see some weakness in the into the end of the year I don't want to focus on the S&P 500 charting just you know it's always good to look at stock indexes to get clues to where the yen might be going so what I want to do that is only go through some charts and stock the sp500 then we'll look at the Japanese yen see where we might be game next week got up the S&P 500 just want a quick look at it because yeah the S&P r is correlated with the end when stock markets that tend to be strongly intends to be weak when stock markets a week he intends to be strong so you should always keep your eye on stock indices I was the S&P it is the most important to look at in terms of the end sub quick look at this trump rally now break out here move nicely are a little bit of a retracement dip here then we break out on this big blue candle then we go higher right up to new heights blue can bloom highlighting here then we attempt to break our cult do it basically travel sideways another attempts here we can't do it this in doubt terms is distribution and basically at the end of a strong trend either up or down you get sideways action very often and then that sideways action breaks and you get a decent direction and we've got the break now obvious red candle takes out support here um this red candle tries to get bank through resistance it can't do it holds 20 day moving average though then this bigger red candle tries again to get back up can't do it can't hold the 20-day moving average pinches it 2240 so a weakish close I think we should if we start selling off early next week target this level here which is the bottom this big blue candle now i would expect this level to be yo targeted but we could easily run on if we broke this level we could get down to 180 which is here really this cluster of candles over here so i'm looking for decent corrections market to help affirm the end it's always a good idea to keep your eye on stocks in relation to the end just because the high correlation between the two now let's go and have a look at the yen weekly chart ok so the yen weekly chart on some levels to explain why I've drawn the way that I have now in terms of the trump rally obviously all nice big blue bars up to above 118 and then we start to fail on these two red bars I've isolated this support level here which is basically the top of this body here bottom of that body bottom of those two bodies and there's a little bit of a battle around this level at the moment you can see we briefly dipped below it came back on that candle there this candle here again we came below it immediately bounce back above it ok now that level equates to about 1 16 18 ok so I think yeah if we get through that level decisively say through one 1670 we should see a decent correction to the downside and I've basically drawn a level of 112 ok so these candles here are you could say 114-114 is the obvious first step of support here so they want 14 is definitely going to be targeted but yeah because it's been such a big rally I'd be looking for 112 nay might be thinking why have I Nord the 116 level here um we could come threw 116 in my view however I just think early next week yeah we're just below 117 if we get below 1 1670 I think we should just carry on selling off to the downside but being early means yeah my stop isn't so far away because the stop in my view has got to be well back behind 118 now do I think we're going to get back above 118 or close above 118 seen a lot of people say you know yeah we're going to 120 I don't think we are the reason for this is at CFD cnet traders we looked at them in our last year report I've put them on the left I say to the two groups noncommercial speculators large funds etc and obviously the commercials who are the smart money now let's just look at the ratios that they've got in terms of longs to shorts then we have got the non-commercial speculators there long the end by 40,000 565 contracts and they're short by 127 574 so their ratios in terms of shorts alongs three to one in favor of yen weakness when we last looked at this report of course it was only two to one so the speculators are continuing to buy the dollar and sell the end what are the commercials doing they've got 160,000 533 longs against 40 6704 shorts so basically they put a ratio of three-to-one in terms of being bullish of the end bearish of the dollar they were two to one on the last report we looked at that's a couple of weeks ago obviously it coincides with the highs here really you know the commercials have come in to hit usd/jpy into the 118 level noncommercial speculators have come in to buy so I just think that this trend now is getting exhausted and we should see a decent direction like sit 114 is easily on the cards in my view and I've really got the level of 112 in my nurse just take a quick look at the daily chart okay its daily chart nasreen see obviously here I since we've got above the 118 level we started to lose momentum candles are getting smaller we drop below 117 trying to get bank through the level like I said dear from my reading of the weekly chart I think weakness threw 116 7k is a seller they wanna wait to come threw 116 for me it's too far away from I stopped my reading of the fundamentals and also the CFTC net traders is telling me that yo come in a little bit early which I'm going to do up isolated the levels of support which we had on the weekly chart 140 first level but I do think we are going to run on to the 112 level so we'll see what happens and that is my analysis of us think JPY you

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Best Forex Indicators the COT Indicator for Profitable Trading Signals AUD/USD Case Study

welcome to this video Decker which is on Saturday 23rd of July what can be doing is looking at a trade setup in your stray lien dollar against the US dollar and we're looking at it from a technical perspective and how to use a very powerful tool to back up your chart analysis I can simply be on those valuable tools any Forex trader can use but hardly any traders use this tool it's the CFTC net traders for regular viewers of my Co I think everyone knows how much I rate this tool no curricular view you can just go straight to the Chart I put the timeline of where the chart analysis starts below but for those of you not familiar with CFTC neck traders I just want to give you a little bit of an introduction now in terms of report it's totally free it's released each week and said in previous videos if I was asked to pay a few thousand dollars for it I'd do that cheerfully why because the reporters have been so important to me over the years and it's got me such great entries at major turning points very reinforces what I see on the chart it effectively allows you to trade with a group of traders you have an outstanding track record of catching the big turning points for the yet the risk is low the reward is high next in terms of the traders that we like to follow they're called the commercial so who are the commercials well now it is I'm just going to do a little love story board at the groups that are on the CFTC net traders report and why I like to trade with the commercial so here is the story board back in a minute and a half and then we'll be looking at the chart you I'll be back after a short summary there have been three groups that appear on the CFTC net traders positions report now in terms of the commercials what I want to do now is just show you a chart of the Aussie dollar against the US dollar and had last week the commercials movements against the speculators indicated that a level of resistance was gonna hold understand show you the chart and then what I'm going to do is come back with some more tips on how to read the report and get the most out of it let's go through the chart first of all okay here we have a chart of the Aussie dollar daily and what I've done is I've drawn a level of resistance at around 76 70 now that level actually is also a level of resistance on the bigger Dhar weekly and monthly charts there we want to know if it is going to hold or if it is going to break and see if these senior traders indicate to us that it's going to hold now what you'll see on the safety cynic traders is NaN commercials they're speculators big hedge funds etc are basically long Leo C by ratio of two to one they're also if you look adding in a lot of Long's 15,000 704 Long's are going in and they're taking out shorts they're taken out 1511 now if you look back to the chart you'll see four candles struggling to take out that level now one of the commercials doing urban speculators trying to push it higher but basically smart money hedges are selling the Aussie dollar if you look at the ratio of loans the shorts they hold four times as many shorts as Long's they're doing the exact opposite of the speculators they've added in nine thousand four hundred and ninety shorts and they've taken out 593 long so you take this is the week ending nineteen to the six you'll see on those four days where it's trying to press up it can't quite do it and then you get a nice red candle to the downside now we've slipped below the 20-day moving average and we'd be looking for a sell-off damn to the 72 level now what we do know is if the Aussie breaks up the commercials are still going to be selling okay so I would say that it did rally it could get to the top of that candle by binding to the sixth may be run on again to test the highs but it's going to be a selling opportunity if it gets up there that now is a big level of resistance now obviously you can draw the levels of resistance on the charts that they lead weekly and monthly but when you know that you've got the commercials on your side on the CFTC's it really reinforces that that level of resistance is probably going to hold so that's just a quick review of the Aussie dollar our CFD CNET traders I will come back after that short summary there Honda using CFD senior traders with the chance now in terms of when the groups do diverge aggressively against each other the commercials would normally come out on top now in terms of them coming out on top that one thing to keep in mind is they're not fussy about market time okay so they're not making or losing any money they're just hedges second was run all the little bit against them before coming back from our perspective we need to employ strict money management so we need to confirm a technical level as held it we need since we've just seen before getting in now from our perspective here I wouldn't just sell into that level of resistance we left it come down over a hundred pips are in at 75 80 and now we're down at about 74 50 so it's a decent profits so functor hoping it's gonna roll down to 72 to make it a really good profit but what I do know is if a competence to hold this one cuz I know the commercials are gonna sell any rallies back to the upside so just giving us a little bit of confidence in getting in the market and in holding the trade down in terms of when you look at the CFD see net traders if we currencies got a little bit of a different personality it takes a little bit of practice to read the report okay and get used to it but if you just focus on big divergences and then look at your charts you get some great wild sentries I mean you're gonna see yeah anything in the positions every week for example sometimes you don't see anything in the positions whatsoever this week when I'm looking at the positions I can see a good few setups in addition to the Aussie dollar with the CFTC nat traders giving me clues of what my handle on the chart nobody will see loading it to the members center before the end of the weekend but in terms of um CFD scene traders when you can get at all for free okay which allows you to track smart money that has got to be of value to any trader I've always been surprised at how few traders look at CFTC net traders I strongly recommend I go and check them out if you haven't just a fantastic trading tool anyway that's the video for today thank you very much for watching me as usual with you any questions or queries please feel free to email me you