U.S. Reactions to Failure of Juan Guaidò's Attempt To Take Over Control of Venezuela
U.S. Reactions to Failure of Juan Guaidò’s Attempt To Take Over Control of Venezuela
Last week saw the failure of an attempt to take over the Venezuelan government by the country’s opposition leader and president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, and U.S. reactions to this development.
Failed Take Over[1]
On Tuesday morning (April 30), Guaidó, with the support of his mentor (Leopoldo López), the director of the regime’s intelligence agency (Manuel Ricardo Cristopher Figuera…
Following the Obama administration’s implementation and expansion of targeted sanctions against seven Venezuelan officials, WOLA Senior Fellow David Smilde was contacted by various media outlets to provide commentary and analysis from on the ground in Caracas.
In an interview on Background Briefing with Ian Masters (posted above), Smilde offered his analysis of how the U.S. sanctions will play out in Venezuela’s polarized political landscape. As he remarked on the radio show, the White House announcement will likely spur a vigorous, confrontational response from the Venezuela government.
In remarks to Bloomberg, Smilde noted that while the fact that the sanctions target mid-level officials may make yesterday’s executive order “less provocative than it could’ve been,” the move still risks fueling more conflict between the two countries, especially because it was framed in the language of a U.S. “national emergency.” According to him, “[T]he declaration of the state of emergency with respect to Venezuela, makes the optics of it very negative.”
Smilde’s initial statement in response to President Obama’s executive order, in which he described the unilateral measure as counterproductive to regional efforts to engage constructively with Venezuela, was featured in reports in USA Today and The Miami Herald.
The coming months will bring major developments for Venezuela’s polarized political landscape.With Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s approval rating at an all-time low, and in the face of worsening scarcity of basic goods and upcoming legislative elections, 2015 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for the country.
On February 25, WOLA hosted a panel discussion, “Chavismo Under Pressure: Economic Crisis and Political Challenges in Venezuela,” to assess the country’s political and economic forecast. WOLA Senior Fellow David Smilde and Michael McCarthy of the American University Center for Latin American and Latino Studies (CLALS) gave their take on what the future holds for the country, in 2015 and beyond.
Highlights from David Smilde’s remarks:
On Venezuela's economic situation:
• Smilde argues that it is important to note that the roots of Venezuela’s economic challenges—which began when the price of oil was still above $100 per barrel—are about more than the decline of oil prices. The fundamental problem is a wildly overvalued exchange rate that causes an insatiable demand for dollars, corruption and scarcities.
• Maduro is paying more of a political price for scarcities than Chavismo has in the past because they are affecting the government’s base which is highly dependent on subsidized and price-controlled goods.
• According to Smilde, the recently announced economic reforms seem to be too little too late.
On President Nicolas Maduro and the future of Chavismo:
• To Smilde, President Maduro lacks the political capital needed to make unpopular but necessary economic changes.
• Maduro’s favorability rating is indeed low, but stands at a similar level to Chávez’s approval figures ten years ago. Chávez overcame this and won a subsequent recall referendum in August 2004, but it seems doubtful that Maduro will be able to muster a similar comeback.
• Smilde believes the ruling Socialist Party (PSUV) in Venezuela faces three potential paths forward: 1.) it can try to reform and stabilize the economy ahead of the election, 2.) it could see major losses to its National Assembly majority in legislative elections this fall, or 3.) it could become a significantly less democratic movement. There are signs of potential movement along each of these three paths, but only time will reveal which will predominate and where it will lead.
On regional engagement:
• The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) has emerged as the only multilateral agency Venezuela will listen to. However, Smilde argues that U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan officials is leading UNASUR to “circle the wagons” around Venezuela, prioritizing its sovereignty over the fundamental rights of its citizens.
Highlights from Michael McCarthy’s remarks
On the Maduro government and the nature of the current crisis:
• Maduro came to power in a political crisis and without ever answering questions about the influence of his leadership, a full-blown economic crisis emerged. The government’s biggest challenge is managing this two-front crisis and preventing the emergence of a new front, in the form of a social crisis.
On the opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) coalition:
• The MUD faces obstacles to becoming a real, working coalition and its national agenda appears to be “under construction,” according to McCarthy. The primary challenges for the MUD in 2015 will be emerging from this construction phase with a popular sector-based campaign that energizes its base and reaches new sectors.
• A repeat of last year, a ‘La Salida 2.0’ appears unlikely; it does not have the bandwidth to prioritize demonstrations and the upcoming legislative elections.
• For McCarthy, 2010 is an important point of comparison and the opposition’s successful campaign that year was one of its “high water marks.”
On Venezuela’s democratic institutions:
• Polls in Venezuela indicate decreasing “confianza” in the electoral management body in the country, the Consejo Nacional Electoral, while the international Electoral Integrity Project documented a decline in “electoral quality” from 2012 to 2013.
• The fact no date has yet been set for the 2015 legislative elections is not encouraging.
On international engagement and criticism of Venezuela:
• McCarthy also highlights the importance of new voices that have emerged as international critics of the ruling party in Venezuela, including some well-known international political figures like former U.S. President Bill Clinton, as well as figures on the Latin America left, like Juan Pablo Letelier and Isabella Allende in Chile.
Both experts agree that the coming months will see important political developments. The ruling party is at risk of losing control of the National Assembly in an upcoming legislative vote, which in turn could boost opposition momentum for a presidential recall referendum in 2016. But as the opposition remains fractious and distanced from average Venezuelans, its capacity to take advantage of Chavismo’s difficulties is very much in doubt.
Live event broadcast will be begin July 8 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
The street protests that erupted in Venezuela in February generated tensions and violence. The response of Venezuelan security forces has led to credible allegations of excessive use of force and violations of the human rights of demonstrators. The protests have largely subsided for the moment, but Venezuelan politics remain turbulent, and the talks between the government and opposition sectors that began in April—with support from UNASUR and the Vatican—have been frozen since May.
In the meantime, the U.S. Congress has taken up legislation that would impose U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan officials deemed to be responsible for human right abuses committed against protesters. In May, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved a targeted sanctions bill and the full House of Representatives passed a similar measure later the same month. Sponsors of the Senate measure have vowed to press for floor debate and a vote in the coming weeks. The Obama administration has opposed the sanctions bills, maintaining that legislation mandating U.S. sanctions would be counterproductive.
What impact would the approval of targeted sanctions legislation have in Venezuela? Please join us for a timely discussion on the likely impacts of U.S.-imposed sanctions, with insights from Marino Alvarado of PROVEA, Venezuela’s premier human rights organization; Datanálisis’ Luis Vicente León, one of Venezuela’s foremost pollsters; and David Smilde, who moderates WOLA’s Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights blog.
Marino Alvarado Betancourt is General Coordinator of the Venezuelan Program for Education and Action in Human Rights (PROVEA), Venezuela’s leading human rights organization, and a columnist for Venezuelan daily Tal Cual.
Luis Vicente León is President of Datanálisis, Venezuela’s most trusted polling firm. He is a professor at the Universidad Católica Ándres Bello and at the Instituto de Educación Superior en Administración.
David Smilde is a Senior Fellow at WOLA and the Charles A. and Leo M. Favrot Professor of Human Relations at Tulane University. In May, he published a Washington Post Op-Ed arguing against U.S. sanctions.
Protests in Venezuela led to the country’s government responding with force. In a period of just a few months, more than 40 people were killed and 800 injured. Most of the casualties were civilians. Some lawmakers in the United States floated a bill to impose sanctions on Venezuelan government officials.
However, almost as quickly as it began, the revolution fizzled out. CCTV’s John Holman explains what happened.
On Thursday, February 27, Venezuela Politics and Human Rights Blog Moderator David Smilde will discuss the current situation in Venezuela in the context of the one-year anniversary of Hugo Chávez's death.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
10:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
Washington Office on Latin America
1666 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 400
Washington, D.C. 20009
To view the event via livestream, click the video below
March 5 will mark the first anniversary of the death of Hugo Chávez, who succumbed to cancer after 14 years as president of Venezuela. Nicolás Maduro, Chávez’s hand-picked successor, won office in a contested election in April 2013. President Maduro received a boost from the strong showing of the government’s candidates in the December 2013 regional elections. But Maduro now faces significant street mobilization against his government. After nearly a year in power, how is Maduro managing the considerable challenges facing the country, including economic woes and violent crime, as well as recent street protests? After their setback in the December elections, what are the strategies and prospects of the political opposition? What does the continuing polarization of the country’s politics mean for ordinary Venezuelans? Please join David Smilde and the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) for a timely and in-depth discussion of Venezuela after Chávez.
Will Venezuela's Protests Spin out of Control? Q&A with David Smilde
In today's Latin America Advisor, David Smilde and other experts respond to questions about the ongoing protests in Venezuela. To read the article in its original context, please click here.
Latin America Advisor: Deadly protests, the largest since President Nicolás Maduro's election last year, have wracked Venezuela in recent weeks. The demonstrations were punctuated on Feb. 18 by the arrest of opposition leader Leopoldo López, who had been organizing the protests. Why did these protests erupt now, and why did they turn deadly this time? Does the situation pose a threat to Maduro's government? How will López's jailing affect the opposition?
David Smilde: Like any protest wave, the sources are multiple. The basic motor of these protests has been students, protesting against the criminalization of protest and in favor of freedom of expression. The movement was latched on to and fueled by radical elements of the opposition who were not in agreement with their coalition's more moderate line aimed at growing the opposition coalition and negotiating with the government. Leopoldo López and others pushed forward with street protests seeking Maduro's resignation. In a couple of the protests, larger swaths of the opposition base have hit the streets to raise their voices as well. Protests in Venezuela frequently involve violence. Protestors themselves engage in (usually non-lethal) violence. The National Guard, which works to control the protests, has inconsistent professional standards. Mix that in with pro-government but semi-autonomous armed collectives, and it is a perfect recipe for violence. I doubt it was ordered from the top, but suggestions made by Maduro and Chavista governors about the defense of the revolution can easily be interpreted by followers as a green light for violence. The government could control it by sending crystal-clear messages to its followers and making sure that security forces work protests without lethal weaponry. The protests seem to be dying down and are focusing on 'guarimba' tactics in which small groups of people block off streets to disrupt daily life. They likely will not end as long as the government and government supporters continue to repress them. At the present the protest movement is really leading the actions of opposition politicians rather than the other way around.
Venezuela: Opposition Protests Continue, President Maduro Supporters Come Out
From WBEZ Chicago's WorldView: Protests continued on Monday in Caracas, with opposition members blocking off parts of Caracas and erecting barriers on major roads. Over the weekend hundreds of thousands of people also came out in support of the government of Nicolas Maduro. We'll examine the demands of both sides with David Smilde, a senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America.
