May 12, 2025
Let's go gambling
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sTILL NO TPA EZREAL i got another trist skin and safari cait 6.2% chance of tpa ezreal now.......i no longer believe
A Season in Super Bowl Odds: Hope Spring Et...Never Mind
It’s been a while since we updated this graph because frankly it’s wildly depressing to see how many zeros are involved in the Redskins’ Super Bowl odds.
But, as we’re at a crossroads of sorts for the season with a few winnable games ahead of this team, I figured it was time to dig this up again and see how the numbers says the season has progressed. Let’s admit it, we all have in the back of our minds the 3-6 record from last year and have been quietly saying to ourselves “if we can just get to 3-6 again, who knows what can happen!”, so let’s see what the betting markets think of that little comically flawed idea.
As you can see the wheels started to fall off after the Cowboys game when the Skins’ Super Bowl odds jumped from 60-1 after the Raiders win to 200-1 after the special teams debacle in Dallas. 200-1 is where they sit now after the 2nd half meltdown in Denver. It’s not even worth thinking about, but this graph would look mighty interesting if the Skins had somehow held on. I’d expect the odds to have dropped back down to the 45-1 range after beating the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite at home. But Kyle had much grander plans for the offense in the 3rd quarter, so instead we’re sitting back at 200-1.
As for the division, it’s the Cowboys at -303 and everyone else sitting on the bus. Kind of surprising when you consider the Cowboys are decimated by injuries and only a game up on the division, but if people want to put their kid’s college fund on the Cowboys not collapsing, then who am I to criticize them? The Eagles have the next lowest division odds at +600, then the Redskins at +700, and finally the Giants at +1000. If I wasn’t convinced it would rot my soul, it might be worth throwing down a $20 bet on the Giants division odds.
Who knows, if the Skins can knock off the Chargers and beat History’s Greatest Quarterback Christian Ponder in Minnesota, maybe we’ll be staring at a chart that looks like a big triangle in a week.
Redskins Super Bowl Odds: Training Camp Edition
The Redskins' Super Bowl odds at Pinnacle dropped slightly this week, likely due to injuries/suspensions on the DLine (Carricker/Jenkins). The Skins, Bears, and Colts odds continue to move in lockstep together. That's decent enough company, especially considering last year the Skins were lumped in with the disgusting Bengals and Dolphins as preseason long-shots.
There was a favorable move in the Division odds at Sportsbook, where the Skins are now +220 (down from +240) and tied with the Giants for the best odds to win the East. Interestingly, the Cowboys' odds dropped to +280. Not sure exactly what news from Cowboys camp would prompt that drop other than the continuing circus it seems to be, but it makes the division odds look more sensible to me, but I'm obviously biased.
Everyone is an Idiot: A Season in Super Bowl Odds
The NFL is weird. You take a heaping steamer on the field and all of a sudden people stop believing in you. Who cares that the Redskins couldn't stop the Unemployed Man's Wes Welker and they are the least disciplined team in the NFL, someone's got to believe in them right? Wrong. Since the preseason, the Redskins' Brothers in Blowage have been the Panthers, Bengals, Seahawks, Bills, Cardinals and Dolphins. After "upsetting" the Saints in Week 1, the Skins' Super Bowl odds dropped to 40-1 and they were threatening to be an actual part of the divisional conversation Then came the Brainfart Heard 'Round the World and the Saints' piloted a defensive trainwreck against the Panthers, and it's evident that the Super Bowl odds market no longer believes in the Skins and a win over the Saints is no longer impressive, as the Saints have been discounted to 60-1. So entering Week 3 games, the Skins fell off pace of the Flat Pack of Carolina, Cincinnati, Seattle, Buffalo, and New Orleans, who all are sitting strong flailing at 60-1. The Skins and Cardinals now sit with the same odds at 70-1. Because we're dangerously close to having another lost season, Redskins fans may soon be in a position to need something other than the playoffs to root for, and we can get some good practice in this weekend by rooting for the Skins to beat the 60-1 Bengals to leapfrog them in the Super Bowl odds.
The Odds Must Be Crazy**
I'm far from a gambling genius. I try to figure out complicated football betting strategies but numbers make my brain bad. If you're looking for fantastic gambling analysis, you're better off at VegasWatch. Just don't taunt him on Twitter, because he'll win. But as bad as I am at guessing, I'm still called to gaze at the odds each week. When I looked this week, I found something curious: The 3-1 Redskins are 1.5 point underdogs to the 1-4 Eagles at home. Now the Redskins being home underdogs is far from a new development. I guess a decade of losing completely winnable games against inferior opponents can eventually sway the smart money around year six. But the Skins being a home dog is strange given the relative confidence Vegas seems to have in the Skins being a better overall team than the Eagles. Right now the Redskins are 20-1 to win the Super Bowl, and the Eagles sit at 40-1. Just to win the NFC East, the Redskins are +150, while the Steagles' loser kid brothers are +300. If the Redskins are the favorite to win the division, shouldn't that imply an ability to hold serve at home against a struggling opponent? The Redskins have no major injuries of note, while both Trent Cole and Jason Peters are doubtful for the Eagles. I suppose the line difference could be due to favorable Eagles matchups, but hasn't the Eagles' big problem thus far been in stopping the run, the Redskins' only offensive strength? All of this, plus the fact that the line opened at Redskins -1 leads me to believe that the betting public has been hammering the Eagles, and that the public's memory consists of this play on loop, along with a chorus of "the Dream Team can't be THIS bad, can they?" And the one thing I do know about gambling is that the betting public is almost always wrong. I'm not smart enough to never bet on football, but I am smart enough to know that no matter how hard I try, I can't accurately predict the outcome of football games (#cognitivedissonance). However, if I'm choosing sides on this one, I'll be behind the guys who wrote the opening line and banking on the Skins eking one out the only way they know how. Disappointingly. **Hehhehheh. Good one Aceman. Original. Funny. (David Brent straightens tie)
Me: Im never playing slots again.
Me: *sees a Princess Bride slot machine* Oh, it's pretty.
Me: *loses $40*