the gray lot

rarely-thought-out strong takes on all DC sports, coming to you straight from the gravel parking lot of fedex field

[thegraylot-blog]

2014 Redskins Odds Pre-PreSeason Style

Checking in on the odds for the 2014 Redskins, we find them at 65-1 odds to win the Big Game At the End of the Season. This is down from 55-1 from before Training camp started. This probably has less to do with bettors losing faith in the Redskins than money coming in on the favorites, so unbunch those boxer briefs.

It appears The Market considers the Redskins a middle of the pack team, square in the middle of the middle 1/3 of the league. They share similar Super Bowl odds with the Falcons (60-1), Panthers (65-1), Texans (65-1), and Chiefs (65-1); all teams with recent success and talent but difficult divisions and largely woeful recent histories. I think that’s a fair assessment of the 2014 Redskins at this point as well.

We can learn even more about how the market feels about the Redskins by looking at teams with worse odds. This includes the Cowboys (70-1), Bills (75-1), Browns (75-1), Dolphins (75-1), Buccaneers (85-1), Titans (125-1), Raiders (130-1), Vikings (150-1), and Jaguars (250-1).

All these are teams that I would consider worse than the Redskins, and all teams that were probably ranked higher than the Redskins in many, many lazy NFL writers’ preseason power rankings that undoubtedly have the Steelers in the AFC Championship game for the 23rd straight season.

The only team that blows my mind for having better Super Bowl odds than the Redskins is the Giants at 45-1. That is an atrocious abortion of cataclysmic proportions. What money-hating occupy wall street nihilist would make that bet? They have an old QB, no tight ends or secondary and just an aging/disinterested locker room all around. They are running on the fumes of reputation alone at this point. The Eagles are 28-1 in case you’re curious, which I think is way longer than they deserve considering how easily it looks like they should march through this division.

Speaking of the terrible NFC East, the Eagles maintain their favorite status at +115. The Giants slipped from +320 to +350, which makes precisely zero sense considering their Super Bowl odds. The Redskins stayed at +400 and the Cowboys dropped to +500. Based on the recent movement, I’ll bet (get it) the season opens with the Eagles at even money to win the division and the Skins and Giants around +350 each, followed by the UFL Cowboys in the +550 range after you don’t see the quality of their defensive line play degrade between the 1st and 4th teams in their preseason games.

In case for some unfathomable reason you care about non-NFC East teams, the Broncos are favorites to win it all at 6.5-1 and the Seahawks have best odds in the NFC with 7-1.

all odds from Sportsbook.com

[thegraylot-blog]

This Week in Shitty Power Rankings: Shutdown Corner

The Shutdown Corner, part of the Yahoo! Sports blogosphere, recently posted their Pre-Pre-Season Rankings.  Like all power rankings that come out before week 4, they are mostly worthless.  But these have some extra homemade stanksauce on them, so I thought I'd share:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/shutdown-corner-nfl-power-rankings--pre-preseason-edition-152511587.html

Now, if you’ve been following the DC Sports Bog, like all good little Washington fans should do, you may have noticed a recent post that outlined the national media’s opinion of the Redskins for the 2014 season.  Well that trend continued today over at Yahoo! Sport’s NFL blog - the Shutdown Corner, who ranked the Redskins as the 29th best team in the NFL.  

His reasoning is in line with most other lazy NFL writers the last few months, so I guess you cannot complain too much, but here are some other fun tidbits:

The New York Giants will be “in good shape” if “half of their free agents hit.”  11 of their 15 FA from other teams are projected as back ups or worse.  The Giants free agent moves consisted mostly of hot garbage, so if I were you, I’d change that statement to “in good shape if all of their free agents play better than they ever have in their careers ever.”

For the Bengals he said “Andy Dalton could throw for 6,000 yards and it won’t matter to everyone if he doesn’t win a playoff game.” I’d like to think it would matter as he would have shattered the single season record for yardage by over 500 passing yards.  Also, if we want to be sticklers, it would probably never matter to “everyone” because that would include all of the people in the entire galaxy. #english #writing

On the Eagles, “Once the Eagles locked in on Chip Kelly’s schemes and Nick Foles was given the quarterback job, they went 7-1 in the second half. Expect more of the same.” That is national media speak for “some team won a bunch of games last year after they changed one major piece of the puzzle and because that guy is still there and he is young, well he has to get better because that's what players do year to year and man look at all those wins, they have to be good, look at that record! So, yeah, that team that won a lot they will win a lot again because they certainly wont a lot of games, right?”

And my favorite, the Seahawks are listed at #2 overall because “defending a championship is really hard.”  You realize that statement has no bearing on the talent level of the team, which presumably is what you’d expect a ranking of the best teams to be based on?

Keep up that great hard nosed analysis Frank!

[thegraylot-blog]

How Did We Get Here?

The 2013 Redskins season has been one of the most ridiculous seasons I’ve ever encountered. The Shanahans are fighting with RGIII, Snyder is fighting with Mike Shanahan, and fans are fighting over who’s at fault for this shitty season. 

Well fans, everyone is to blame. RGIII has acted immature and has played terribly*. Mike Shanahan’s ego is so large that he refuses to take responsibility and has deflected blame at Snyder and RGIII through media leaks. Dan Snyder is to blame because he’s a maniac without friends so he hangs out with 23 year old quarterbacks who are contractually forced to be his friend. Bruce Allen is to blame because he hasn’t said anything publicly done anything ever, leaving Mike Shanahan to be the lone voice of the organization. There’s one thing that no one seems to blame though, the NFL and their absurd 36 million dollar cap penalty. 

RGIII, Shanny, Snyder, and Allen are the tinder on the dumpster fire that is the 2013 season, but the spark that built the fire happened on March 13th, 2012. The NFL took away 36 million in cap space, three days AFTER the Redskins mortgaged their future first rounders and a 2nd rounder on RGIII. The cap hit being issued after the trade, has handicapped the Redskins without the ability to sign impact free agents or the ability to draft impact players. 

The Redskins knew they could be bold with their draft picks to get the quarterback of the future in RGIII because they assumed they could fill needs via free agency with the huge amount of cap space gained during the uncapped year. Because of the cap penalty, their plan was as useful as a submarine with screen doors. 

Here is the joint quote from the Redskins and Rams after the trade was made from PFT on March 10th: 

“In order to execute each of our club’s plans for free agency and the upcoming draft, we have agreed to a trade between our two teams for the 2nd pick in the 2012 draft.  We will submit this trade to the NFL for approval.”

Sounds like the ability to sign players via free agency was a major factor in the trade.

What if the NFL decided to dock the Redskins on March 1st? Would the Redskins still have considered to bid for the 2nd pick in the draft, knowing they couldn’t sign free agents as planned? If you assume that Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen are semi-competent (a huge leap of faith, I know), I don’t believe they make the trade. They could have rolled out Rex Grossman one more season, and had Kirk Cousins as the quarterback in waiting. Plus, without the trade, the Redskins would have 3 first rounders and 1 second rounder on the roster for the 2014 season. They could have weathered the storm, built a core group, and hit free agency hard when the penalty ran out. Instead, the Redskins have a trade, and then a 36 million dollar penalty that has left them with a 3-11 roster, a team spiraling out of control, and a one legged quarterback being asked to carry the team.

If the Redskins didn’t make the trade for RGIII, they wouldn’t have had the 7 game winning streak and an NFC East title. RGIII’s talent, and some luck, created the perfect storm. Without those two things, the Redskins suck. I believe that RGIII can still be great, but he was put in an impossible situation by the expectations set by the 2012 season, and the NFL’s handicapping of the Redskins’ ability to acquire talent. The Redskins aren’t talented enough, or deep enough to compete. In the biggest screwjob since Montreal, the NFL boned the Redskins, not only with the cap hit, but with the timing of it. The Redskins set up to fail long before this season, the NFL made sure of that.  

*again, hes coming off of major surgery, but Griff has been plain bad.

[thegraylot-blog]

Bill Ladson's Inbox

   After a disappointing Nationals season, I stayed away from all things Nationals. My grieving is over. I'm ready to attack the new season and hot stove by making fun of Bill Ladson and his readers. Why? Because it's the only time I feel alive. / uncontrollable crying.  

Readers questions in bold, my hot takes are in italics. Enjoy:

How about Jayson Werth as player-manager next year? It worked for the Senators, after all, with Bucky Harris and Joe Cronin. -- Michael L., Washington

Great start! What an insane idea! Bucky Harris was a player/manager when the Senators won the World Series in 1924. Joe Cronin won the AL pennant in 1933. Very relevant. I hope Michael L is a doctor; "Hey, this worked one time, 89 years ago!" /pours gas down a crippled kids throat.

There is no question that Werth has strong opinions and would make a great manager. However, I'm not sure if he wants that role. I'll ask Werth this weekend and let you know what he says in a notebook item.

I'm guessing he says "no", then acts like a dick

This past season, Adam LaRoche had a .403 slugging percentage, which might fly at shortstop, but not at first base. Do you think that Tyler Moore is good enough to be in a platoon with LaRoche, or should the Nats go after someone like James Loney to start most of the time? -- Jack G. , Kensington, N.Y.

LaRoche will be back as the everyday first baseman in 2014. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt in this case when it comes to the numbers he put up this past season. He has to figure out his medication for attention deficit disorder. The medication is the reason he lost 15 to 20 pounds and lost some of his home run power. 

Ok, can we call bullshit on this? What 33 year old baseball player switches his attention deficit disorder medication and ruins his season? Why switch? Maybe he is just aging like a normal 33 year old, and his skills diminished? His OPS+ was almost the same (106 to 102) as his last year in Arizona, right before the Nats signed him. I'd argue that he was the guy the Nats signed originally. Remember when Davey wanted to platoon him before 2012? Platoon him. He batted .198 against lefties last season.

How does Ross Ohlendorf fit in with the Nationals' future plans? I see him as a great No. 4 or 5 starter. -- Bill D., Cromwell, Conn.

"Great" followed by "4th or 5th starter" should never happen.

He is arbitration eligible and he should be back as a long man. I don't see him as a fourth or fifth starter next year. He had a tendency to run out of gas after five innings, according to former manager Davey Johnson.

Have you noticed how similar the home run swings of Wilson Ramos and Andres Galarraga are? Every time Ramos goes yard, he reminds me of The Big Cat. -- John B., Portland, Ore.

I can see similarities, especially the way they stand in the batter's box. If Ramos can stay healthy, he can put up similar numbers to The Big Cat

They both have giant thighs and are Hispanic? Look at The Big Cat stats. He peaked after 30. So full of steroids. The needle for his ass must have been 2 feet long. Biggest ass in history.

I think that left-hander David Price would be the ideal arm to add to the Nationals' rotation. If he is willing to agree to an extension, do you think that he would be a good fit for the Nationals? -- Greg M., Washington D.C.

A good fit? No way. Who needs a 28 year old, Cy Young winning, left-hander? No thanks.

Of course Price would be a great addition for the Nationals. However, the Rays still have two more years of control when it comes to Price. Keep in mind that the Rays are not loaded with pitching like they were a few years back. Let's see what happens during the offseason.

Bill loves saying, "Let's see what happens". The questions and answers are all speculation.What happens is going to happen. You don't have to say that. It's a waste of time. I realize the irony in me spending time writing about Bill wasting time, but it drives me nuts. 

I know the Nats insist the offense is set for next year, but do you see any possibility of the team pursuing a big name like Robinson Cano to help improve the offense? -- Ryan K., Mechanicsburg, Pa.

I'm not counting anything out. Going into last offseason, I didn't think there was a need in the bullpen and the team signed Rafael Soriano to a two-year deal. Of all the positions on the roster, second base is the one position they could improve upon. Do I see the Nationals giving Cano a 10-year, $300 million contract? No. Maybe a deal spanning five or six years. Don't forget that Brandon Phillips is available, according to a published report. Anything is possible.

Comparing a two year deal for a reliever to a 10 year, 300 million dollar deal is insane. One compromises your payroll for 10 years, the other is almost over as I write this. 

Bill loves Brandon Phillips. Which would you rather have (Shout out to hack writers everywhere with my "blind" comparison): 

Player A: 32 yrs old, .261/.310/.396, OPS+ 92, dWAR .4, 4 years- 50 million.

Player B: 23 yrs old, .265/.329/.396, OPS+ 99, dWAR -1, Rookie deal (FA in 2019)

Player A is Brandon Phillips. Player B is Anthony Rendon. Seems pretty clear who you'd want. Phillips is a worse hitter, and barely a better fielder, even though Rendon was new to the position. Your only argument for Phillips is that the Nats hate money and are moving Zimmerman to first, neither of those seem to be the case.

With Michael Morse available as a free agent next year, would the Nats consider bringing him back? -- Bob R., Washington

I don't see it happening. There isn't any room for him to become an everyday player. I don't think he would want to become a bench player again.

Is Michael Morse in any position to dictate his playing time? He was 1,198th in WAR last season (-1.8). Tied with BJ Upton, which is hilarious.

What did you think about the Nationals hiring Williams as manager last week? -- Cameron G., Washington

It's too early to tell. Williams had a great news conference and talked a great game. He is very excited to start managing this team. Williams said the team is going to be aggressive. It sounds like we are going to see some small-ball action, as well as the team going for the three-run homer. 

I love the idea, "going for the three-run homer". Your objective should be not to get out. When a guy is bunting, opposing teams always say, "throw a strike, he's trying to make an out.". There's a reason for that. Outs are a good thing for the pitcher. Stop bunting. Stop loving small ball, Bill. Mickey Rivers isn't walking through that door.

What is Christian Garcia's status? Will he join the Nationals in 2014? He was a great late addition to the bullpen in 2012. -- Tom B., Farnham, Va.

Farnham is a small tow with nothing going on. Tom B sits on his porch thinking of things to worry about. Today, he thought to worry about what Christian Garcia is up to. Tom B remembers Christian Garcia's 12.2 innings in 2012 like they were yesterday. It was a magical 13 game stretch.

Christian Garcia is 28 years old and has only pitched 12.2 innings in the majors. He is an injury waiting to happen. Who the fuck cares?

Garcia was recently taken off the 60-day disabled list and is expected to be ready for Spring Training. I expect Garcia to compete for one of the bullpen spots, but the days of him becoming a starter are likely over. Johnson wanted him to be a starter, but I don't see that happening now that Williams is the manager.

Garcia has started 60 of his 135 games in the minors, and 0 of his 13 games in the majors. No shit he's not a starter, Bill.

Are Gold Glove Awards given with consideration to the offensive stats of a player? Otherwise, how could Denard Span miss out on the award this year? -- Alex C., Montreal

I agree! Span was so much better than Gomez!  Gomez looked so average in the three games I watched Gomez play! Go screw MLB! Give Span his deserved Gold Glove! Bill, hit them with the facts!

I was shocked that Span didn't win the Gold Glove. That makes three of us!

Besides not making an error, Span's range that reminded me of Paul Blair, when he played the Orioles in the 1970s. Errors are a weird stat when talking outfielders. Also, Denard Span reminding you of Paul Blair doesn't mean Span was better than Gomez this season....but I'm still angry as hell! 

 Whenever there was a ball hit in the gap, Span always found a way to grab it for a key out. I remember those too! I mean not specifically, but I remember being like, "oh man, nice catch" a couple times. By the way, Gomez is an asshole who never helped his team win.

I thought that Rick Ankiel was the best defensive center fielder in Nationals history, but I have to say that Span is right up there with him. Agree. Gold Glove= Better-than-pitcher-turned-outfielder Rick Ankiel.

I am hard pressed to think that Carlos Gomez's offensive numbers had a lot to do with him winning the Gold Glove. Wait, I don't understand. So the offensive numbers didn't help? That does happen in Gold Glove voting. Maybe you botched the saying and you think Gomez's offensive numbers did affect the Gold Glove vote. I'm so confused......but go on!

He is an excellent center fielder, but he's not better than Span.

Strong take, Bill. Let me remove my Nats colored glasses and look at the metrics. Oh my god! We were wrong. 

Carlos Gomez- Defensive Runs Saved: 38

Denard Span- Defensive Runs Saved: 3

Carlos Gomez was a better defender than Span in every advanced metric. Span did have less errors, which is a flawed way to evaluate defensive abilities, if not idiotic. I mean, what person would do that?

[thegraylot-blog]

Redskins Super Bowl Odds: A Turning Point? (Hint: No.)

Coming off a decent win in a week where division leaders also won resulted in changes to the odds that you’d expect.

The Redskins’ Super Bowl chances dropped to 1-125 from 1-200, back to the level they were after the win over the Bears.

Division odds stayed flat at +700, a number that surely would have been lower if the Cowboys didn’t come back in the final seconds vs. the Vikings. But alas, they did and now Tony Romo is a hero this week instead of the Least Clutch and Worst QB of All Time. Never change, Dallas fans from Virginia. The Cowboys lead on the division moved lower a bit to -222 from -303. If they lose to the Saints this week and either the Skins or Eagles win, we might be looking at a drop to even money there,, folks.

Elsewhere in the division, it looks like there are some believers in the Nick Foles Project and his NFL-record 7 TDs as the Eagles odds dropped to +400 from +600 after dismantling Oakland. Hey, it’s your money idiots. Do what you gotta do.

The Giants managed not to lose this week* and their odds reflected this inactivity, sticking at +1000 which for my money is the best value on the board. The Giants have the Raiders and Rogers-less Packers up next at home, followed by division showdowns with the Cowboys and Redskins. They could easily go 3-1 and be 5-7 and no more than 2 games back** after that stretch. They could also drop all four. I’m just saying +1000 is the best value I see in the division.

Please, please beat the Vikings on National TV. Pretty Please?

*Good stuff Aceman

**And that’s if Dallas beats the Saints. As if.

[thegraylot-blog]

Here is the actual graph... 

[thegraylot-blog]

Track the Washington Redskins performance in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings from 2002 to present.

Here is the trend of your Washington Redskins over the last 11 years in ESPN's power rankings.  Sure this is not a perfect representation because the World Wide Leader is kind of the worst, but its a good way to show how people outside the beltway have felt about this team over the last decade plus.  And, not that you weren't already aware, but people think know the Redskins stink.

Here are some fun facts from the graph:

The highets the Redskins have been ranked was #3 in 2008.  That is Zorns first year, we started 6-2.  Hilarious.

The biggest drop in one year, you guessed it - 2008, from 3 all the way to our finish at #21.

ESPN loves to overrate the Redskins (#offseasonchamps), they finished below their preseason ranking every year except 2005, 2007, 2012 (the years we went to the playoffs) and 2011.  Thats 7/11, almost 75% of the time.

Redskins have been out of the top 10 rankings 92% of the time.  92%!!!  They have only been ranked 10 or higher in 17 of the 207 weeks.

The worst part of that stat, 7 of those 17 weeks came in 2008 when we were terrible but fooled the entire world somehow.  Jim Zorn you were something special.

[thegraylot-blog]

Mike Shanahan is one of the league's most experienced coaches, but he made a very curious challenge against the Chargers on Sunday. With 6:47 to go in the fourth quarter, Shanahan had enough faith that a seven-yard reception by Danny Woodhead on second-and-10, deep in San Diego territory, was worth a challenge. It wasn't; the play was low-reward, and Shanahan didn't even win his challenge. Using the challenge itself isn't quite as big of a deal with 4:47 of challengeable time left in the day, but that's a timeout that could very well have come in handy in such a close game.

Hey Bill Barnwell you moron, Shanahan challenged the play because he (and most people watching) thought Woodhead fumbled.  I think a fumble where you gain possession is a good challenge at any point of a football game.

[thegraylot-blog]

A Season in Super Bowl Odds: Hope Spring Et...Never Mind

It’s been a while since we updated this graph because frankly it’s wildly depressing to see how many zeros are involved in the Redskins’ Super Bowl odds.

But, as we’re at a crossroads of sorts for the season with a few winnable games ahead of this team, I figured it was time to dig this up again and see how the numbers says the season has progressed. Let’s admit it, we all have in the back of our minds the 3-6 record from last year and have been quietly saying to ourselves “if we can just get to 3-6 again, who knows what can happen!”, so let’s see what the betting markets think of that little comically flawed idea.

As you can see the wheels started to fall off after the Cowboys game when the Skins’ Super Bowl odds jumped from 60-1 after the Raiders win to 200-1 after the special teams debacle in Dallas. 200-1 is where they sit now after the 2nd half meltdown in Denver. It’s not even worth thinking about, but this graph would look mighty interesting if the Skins had somehow held on. I’d expect the odds to have dropped back down to the 45-1 range after beating the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite at home. But Kyle had much grander plans for the offense in the 3rd quarter, so instead we’re sitting back at 200-1.

As for the division, it’s the Cowboys at -303 and everyone else sitting on the bus. Kind of surprising when you consider the Cowboys are decimated by injuries and only a game up on the division, but if people want to put their kid’s college fund on the Cowboys not collapsing, then who am I to criticize them? The Eagles have the next lowest division odds at +600, then the Redskins at +700, and finally the Giants at +1000. If I wasn’t convinced it would rot my soul, it might be worth throwing down a $20 bet on the Giants division odds.

Who knows, if the Skins can knock off the Chargers and beat History’s Greatest Quarterback Christian Ponder in Minnesota, maybe we’ll be staring at a chart that looks like a big triangle in a week.

[thegraylot-blog]

I Kill Me: When Alf Carries, the Redskins Score

I think a large part of the blame for the Redskins’ slow start this year can be placed on the offensive playcalling. Maybe it’s because the team fell behind, maybe it’s because RGIII is/was still on the mend, maybe it was Kyle trying to mix it up from last year. Whatever it is, it appears to me that the team has gone away from the smashmouth style they played when they were winning last year, which means giving Alfred Morris the ball and watching him break tackles on his way to paydirt.

I have considered Alf to be the real engine behind the offense since the start of last year’s win streak, and that feeling was reinforced this Sunday when Doc Walker was screaming “FEED HIM THE BALL” during the radio broadcast. Doc knows great radio. Such a pro.

So it got me thinking what the numbers (aka the opposite of Doc Walker’s gut feelings) indicated about my hunch. So I donned my white labcoat, took a hit from my inhaler, and formed my hypothesis: The number of carries Alfred Morris gets in a game is directly correlated to how many points the Redskins score in that game.

I went to Football Reference to get my data on Alf’s career stats. I threw this in Excel and took out all the non-offensive scoring plays (which were all defensive TDs since shockingly the Skins have no special teams return TDs).

Then I graphed the data and ran a basic linear regression to determine the relationship between Morris’ carries and Redskins points:

What does this mean? Well you can see by the graph that it certainly appears there is a linear relationship between Morris' carries and Redskins points when you look at how close the dots are to the yellow line. That outlier point on the top there is the Dallas game where the Skins gave Alf the ball 33 times and all he did was score 3 TDs and gain 200 yards. But how strong is the relationship?

According to the numbers, pretty strong. See down below for nerd explanation*, but it’s pretty obvious that the more carries that Alfred Morris gets, the more points that the Redskins score. And this analysis even includes that atrocious toss play that never, ever, ever, ever works. Ever.

Obviously there are more factors at play here (falling behind early, yards per carry, success of the passing game, missed FGs, the fact that scoring is “lumpy”**, etc) but in general, Alfred Morris getting more than 20 carries means good things for the Redskins offense. In fact, the Redskins are 9-1 when Alf gets at least 20 carries, the one loss coming on the road to the Giants last year, which was courtesy of Madieu Williams.

Did you know that the Redskins are 2-4 this year? Did you also know that Alf has yet to carry the ball 20 times this year? Did you also also know that he had 19 on Sunday when the Redskins scored 45 points? Stats are fun.

If someone could send this to Kyle’s pager, I’d appreciate it. (He seems like a guy with a pager)

*Nerd Explanation: the Multiple R of .62 means that Alf’s carries is correlated with the number of points the Redskins score, and the R Square means that for every point the Redskins score, 39% of that can be explained by an Alfred Morris carry. The Significance means there is basically zero probability that these results are just a fluke. Boobies feel like a bag of sand.

**As in, you can’t score 4 points. Only 3 or 7.

[thegraylot-blog]

Redskins Super Bowl Odds: *sigh*

Here we are. 0-2, Skins odds down to 75-1 for the Super Bowl. Division odds up to +400.

Not much to comment on after this week. Things went pretty much as expected. A win today will cause some interesting moves in both odds, especially after the Eagles loss.

[thegraylot-blog]

Cleveland had the fourth pick; Washington had the sixth pick. Somehow, Washington put together a better offer. And yes, I know Griffin hasn't started off too well.

Bill Simmons...

I guess he at least talked about the Redskins?  

I had no idea that as a rookie breaking multiple records, leading your team to 7 straight wins and your first division title in almost 15 years isnt "starting off too well.

[thegraylot-blog]

Not all games up but through 2 weeks Redskins defense earned a -48.9 team grade. Next lowest? Buffalo at -22.8. [Skins have] already missed 30 tackles

Pro Football Focus (@PFF) on Twitter. There are JV teams with fewer missed tackles after two games.

[thegraylot-blog]

Redskins Super Bowl Odds: Ascending the Mountain

Unsurprisingly, the Redskins’ odds for Division and Super Bowl championships took a slight ding this past week. Turning the ball over on 43%  of your first seven plays of the season does not result in gamblers sprinting to the betting window. But how bad was it?

Well, the Skins are no longer the favorites to win the division, dropping to +350 (in line with the Giants) from +200. The Eagles jumped to co-favorites with the Cowboys at +200, after hovering around +500 all preseason. Super Bowl-wise, the Skins are now on the outside looking in, sitting around 62-1, down from 42-1. Indianapolis is now the Skins' brother in similar Super Bowl odds, which seems about right to me. The Giants are around 40-1, which is kind of surprising. While they didn’t looked great, I thought their turnover-laden performance was far from a harbinger of doom for their 2013 season.

So what is the market telling us about the Skins? Based on this drop, I think a loss to the Packers wouldn’t move the odds too much longer (70-1 perhaps) and barely make a dent in the Division odds. However, you walk into Lambeau and beat Green Bay, you’ll see the odds settle in to the much more palatable 25-1 range and quickly be the division favorites (depending on if the Eagles can hold off the Chargers).

One thing I’d like to point out: look at this chart. Think of all the articles you read between February and September. All the worrying you did about RGIII’s attitude and the draft and Kyle’s ability to keep the playcalling fresh. Look at how steady the odds were through all of that, and how just one game (one half, really) completely changes all of that as the odds spike drastically. The point I’m making is that the you and the media don’t know dick. All the information that matters for these odds happens on the field, and that only happens 16 times a year. This year, there are 15 more information-gathering sessions, and no one knows what is going to happen. Remember what last year’s graph looked like before you jump to any conclusions about the 2013 Redskins. I reserve the right to delete this paragraph if the Redskins crap the bed this week to fall to 0-2.

[thegraylot-blog]

9. The Eagles were unconventional at times, sending two defenders through the B gap for example. It was by design. They caught the Redskins on an inside zone with the perfect blitz to handle the play. They caught them on an outside zone with a call perfect for that run. “They did things that had it gone a different way we could have made them pay for being unsound sometimes,” Lichtensteiger said. “But we didn’t, so they look like geniuses and here we are.

From John Keim’s 10 observations after Monday’s game. Make no mistake, the Eagles destroyed the Redskins, and this isn’t an excuse, but before committing hari-kari, maybe we should acknowledge the Eagles benefitted from a little bit of playcalling luck.

Rest of the article here: http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=washington-redskins&id=480&src=desktop

[thegraylot-blog]

That team is going 6-10...

Bill Simmons on his BS Report writing off the Redskins already... Redskins fans can take solace in knowing that he has no idea what he's talking about when it comes to football.

[thegraylot-blog]

From the Parking Lot: Week 1 Preview

It’s finally here - week 1 versus the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.

We’re here, we’re queer, it’s time for the week 1 previews, live from spot B30 in the Green Lot. We are also buzzed on wine coolers and car fumes, so don’t hold us to them.

Jesus Shuttlesworth:

everyone acts like they have a clue what’s going to happen in this game, but the fact is 75% of the game is a huge unknown between Chip Kelly’s awesome taste in music, RG3’s hgh-repaired ligaments, and Philly’s Swiss cheese secondary.

Alls I know is that the #1 rushing offense in the NFL is playing at home on MNF against a new nfl head coach, which is a recipe for a woodsheddin’

Skinnies 34 Sheagles 21

Rich Tanguy:

one of the brilliant callers on sports talk radio this afternoon said we have to take it to the eagles, never let the foot off the gas, and stomp a mud hole in them. After hearing that call I realized that people that call into talk radio are autistic. But I appreciate his spirit. Griff is healthier today than he was when we beat the eagles twice last year. An ex-college coach that only left bc he was about to lose scholarships and a QB with the IQ of a 5th grader don’t scare me. After some first half rust, ‘Skins roll.

Redskins 33 Eagles 19.

Danny Lightfoot:

Chip Kelly’s beautiful mind is going to change the NFL. He’s going to act like the Patriots, but with a way worse quarterback. What a mind. I want to shake its hand.

In reality, they are a team with terrible defense trying to learn a new scheme. Everyone keeps wondering “How the Redskins will stop the Eagles?” I have a better question, how will the Eagles stop us? Alfred Morris is going to dominate.

RGIII running onto that field is going to be electric. The crowd will be nuts. I think the Eagles score a late TD to make it respectable.

Redskins 34 Eagles 23

And now a special guest post from our friend MisterPiss (you can find him on AIM):

FedEx provides the perfect setting for the second coming of Steve Spurrier. Mike Vick suffers two injuries before halftime and Matt Barkley brings back memories of Shane Matthews. This isn’t Oregon and Chip Kelly doesn’t even win the fashion battle. Check the AOL main page for MisterPiss chat room invitations.

Redskins 31 Eagles 13

We all have the Skins as winners. Happy RGIII Is Back Day!