#draw analysis

[anotherescsite]

Where in the draw...

A very very long time ago on 28 January 2020, co-hosts Chantal, Jan and Edsilia pulled country names from a bowl in order to determine where each country will be performing in the semi finals. Once the entries were determined, the actual running order was determined.

When 2020 Eurovision did not occur, and the whole cycle of new songs, new performers etc.. where being determined, Rotterdam retained host city title and the hosts retained their positions for one more year. They also decided to retain the same positioning for who will sing when in the draw. Once all the songs were completed, the producers of Eurovision 2021 decided on this running order:

Now as I have no real life and needed to fill some time, I decided to see what history tells about the placings of these songs. To see what placing is luckier than others in the draw. 

Placings

There are three places in the draw that have been historically have been the most successful in placings; 13th, 14th and 15th. Fourteenth place is the most successful placing with three semi final winners (2005, 2012, 2014) and songs qualified 22 of 28 times. Thirteenth is the next most successful place with one winner (2015) and 19 of 28 qualifiers, then 15th is with 2 winners also (2007, 2017) and 21 of 28 qualifiers. They have also have last place finishes as well (13th and 14th - 1 each; 15th - 2).

It is always considered luckier to sing in the second half, but the next three places are in the first half; 1st, 6th and 7th. Opening the semi final has been quite lucky with 15 of 28 qualifiers from opening place. There has only been one victory, and two lasts though. Seventh in the draw has equally successful with 16 songs qualifying for the final and a winner in 2018; no last place. Sixth is another good spot in the first half with 2009 and 2014 victories and only 2010 coming last; 19 of 28 qualifiers. 

Quick note on singing last; only four songs (2005, 2006, 2009, 2013) have not qualified for the final from performing last. Oddly, singing in 16th place has not had much luck with the second lowest average of the 17 places available in the draw this year. They do have two winners there  as well as two last places. In contrast, 17th has the 7th highest average and 14 of 24 qualifiers.

There are two places in the draw that have the worst of the 17 places in the draw. Third has not had a good run in any stretch with six of the 28 songs sung at this spot coming last (2004, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2019) and a mere 8 qualifying songs. Eleventh is the other bottom of the pack. It has provided 11 qualifiers from 28 songs, and only one time that a song was last (2014). Their average would be worse if it wasn’t for a semi final winner by Euphoria.

Points

Having just read through placings, you’d assume that the points would be similar in format. It isn’t. The drawn place that has received the most votes is 13th (3161 points), 15th (3002 points), 9th (2959 points) and the 14th place (2780 points).  The high scoring ninth can be explained by the two semi final winners in 2016 (Sergey Lazarev) and 2017 (Salvador Sobral).  On the flipside, 2nd edges out 3rd for fewest points received in the semi finals my a mere 5 points. Previously mentioned 11th takes 3rd lowest place for votes.

Returning places

Some countries have visited their drawn semi final spots in the past, others are seeing them for the first time. In the case of Serbia, Moldova and Croatia, this will be their third visit and some have better memories than others. 

1. Lithuania - East European Funk 12th

2. Estonia - Et Uus Saaks Alguse 10th Sweden - Undo 2nd 

7. Ireland - Sunlight 15th Moldova - So Lucky 7th;   My Lucky Day 3rd

8. Iceland - Ég Á Líf 6th

9. Norway - Hold On Be Strong 4th Serbia - Beauty Never Lies 9th;   Kruna 7th

10. Croatia - Nebo - 12th;   The Dream - 14th Georgia -  For You 18th/last

11. Albania -  Hear My Plea 17th Belgium - Le Grand Soir 22nd

12. Israel -  Ding Dong 15th

13. Bulgaria - Angel Si Ti 15th

14. Azerbaijan - Miracle 6th

15. Ukraine - Show Me Your Love 7th

16. Malta - Vodka - 14th Switzerland - You And Me 13th

[anotherescsite]

Grand Final 2022 Draw Analysis.

[Sorry about the tiny font above- if you click on each spreadsheet, it will come up larger]

Co-incidences in the draw

While compiling the above, I noticed several countries placed in the same spot as a previous year.

1978: Finland, France, Germany (Winner - Israel)

1981: Belgium, The Netherlands, Greece, Sweden (Winner - UK)

1997: Italy, Spain, Greece (Winner - UK)

2018: Norway, Moldova, Sweden (Winner - Israel)

[cnufederer]

Draws out for Australian Open 2015

Draws out for Australian Open 2015

2015 Australian open draws out today. We have Novak, Delpo, Wawrinka, Raonic and Nishikori in the first half. And Federer, Nadal, Murray, Berdych and Dimitrov stayed in the second half.

Top seed Novak Djokovic will begin his campaign against a qualifier. Australian Open is very special to him and he is more successful here than other Grand slam events.

Wawrinka, the defending champion of Aus Open…

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[mental-ephemera]

Nice breakdown. The French Open atmosphere is quite interesting to say the least. Went there a few years ago and had quite an interesting time.

[kitsum]

Thoughts on the US Open draw (mostly for the men)

For some reason, I thought that the US Open draw ceremony would take place on Friday when I would already be on a plane to Thailand. It turns out that it actually happened today, which means that I could have waited until today to do some actual draw analysis for both the women and men. :/

Ah well, I probably wouldn't have had enough time to do a comprehensive analysis for both sides anyway, given that I have to wake up tomorrow at around 5 in the morning. And now that I've seen the draw, I can at least do a more in-depth analysis for the men. So I'm scrapping my initial plans to focus on the ATP players in the No. 4-7 range in one post and the top 3 in a second post, and doing just one post for general draw analysis here:

1) It turns out that Rafael Nadal nabbing the No. 2 spot just before the US Open was a great boon for him and the exact opposite for Andy Murray, as he gets a draw half that's considerably easier than the other one. Draws can unexpectedly fall apart and favorites can lose to unknowns, as we saw at this year's Wimbledon, and Nadal does have Isner/Monfils, Federer, and Janowicz/Gulbis as potential opponents. But anyone who claims that Nadal is not the clear US Open favorite, especially on the heels of his Canada-Cincinnati double, will have to do a lot of convincing.

2) That said, I don't think that this tournament will be a gimme for Nadal. Nadal has tended to struggle in the early rounds of Slams this season, even after tearing through all the Masters draws beforehand, and there's been a recent trend of the initially easier draw half turning out to be the tougher one by tournament's end. But if Nadal makes it to the second week, I don't really see anyone being able to stop his immense momentum unless one of Djokovic/Murray/del Potro manages to complete most of his matches in 3 sets and hence doesn't get too worn out before the final.

3) I genuinely have no idea who's going to emerge from the top half of the draw. Neither Djokovic or Murray were in stellar form in Canada or Cincinnati, but they have both been pretty good at saving their best tennis for the majors this season. Del Potro, as I pointed out before, has developed a trend of going deep in tournaments he was expected to lose early in and losing early in tournaments he was expected to go deep in. (That, and I do not want to jinx any of these players with my predictions.) I do think that all 3 of them should make it to the QFs, barring a major mishap, and that the QF and SF days for that half of the draw are going to be verrrry interesting regardless of who's actually playing on them.

4) The Ferrer-Gasquet quarter is, depending on who you ask, laughably weak or potentially the most fascinating quarter of the draw. I'm siding with the latter opinion as that quarter contains Janowicz and Gulbis, the two most dangerous floaters who have a great opportunity to make the semis here if the voices in their heads stay quiet for long enough. And I'm not willing to count out the top two seeds doing something worth of actual notice too, as Ferrer (in spite of his terrible form lately) has always played his best at the majors and Gasquet might have finally gotten a path to his first Slam QF in six (!) years that not even he can screw up.

5) For a long time, the men's draws at Grand Slams felt relatively routine and balanced with each quarter guaranteed to be anchored by a member of the Big Four and a member of the Medium Four. Lately, however, Federer's ranking drop and Ferrer and Gasquet's improved seedings have thrown off this balance and increased the probability of someone outside of the Big Four breaking through. We got the first new Slam semifinalist in 3 years at the last Slam and I actually think that if Nadal doesn't win this Slam, we'll have a surprise finalist on the men's side.

6) Also, I'm really regretting not waiting until today to do my analysis for the women because their draw was clearly made by someone with a sense of humor. Errani and Wozniacki being the top two seeds in a quarter! Venus having to face Kirsten Flipkens again! Azarenka and Kvitova being in the same quarter yet again! Serena and Sloane Stephens being in the same section! Radwanska and Lisicki being in the same section too! Alas...

[kitsum]

Some belated thoughts on the Cincinnati draw (women's edition)

1) Serena Williams was competing at less than 50% of her best in her last two rounds in Toronto, and her wins still felt as inevitable as the sun rising in the east. I have a feeling that she's due for a loss here, though, since she looked worn out at times in Toronto. Just a feeling, mind you, and Serena has been extremely good at avoiding what used to be regular lapses in concentration at non-Slam tournaments this year.

2) One of the running gags in the WTA fan community is how the draws forever tease us with the possibility of an Azarenka-Kvitova rematch of their 2011 WTA Championships final, only for something to get in the way every single time. Usually it's Kvitova losing early, although in Toronto it was Azarenka pulling out instead. They're in the same quarter yet again here -- who else thinks that Kvitova is totally going to lose in the third round here?

3) Li Na battled her way to the SFs in Toronto (good) and then double-faulted away a winnable match against Sorana Cirstea (not so good). She now comes into Cincinnati having to defend title points. She could lose to Lauren Davis in her opening round. She could make the final. You know the drill with her.

4) Speaking of streaky WTA players who can beat anyone and lose to anyone in the same week...Sabine Lisicki is going to be playing for the first time since her Wimbledon runner-up appearance, so we're going to see if her run there has infused her with greater consistency or if she'll still be the same old Sabine Lisicki. My money's on the latter, and I'm honestly not expecting her to make it past the third round what with her being in the same quarter as Maria Sharapova. (If she proves me wrong, though, I'm not going to complain.)

5) Maria Sharapova also returns to the court for the first time since Wimbledon and she has an pretty interesting draw here with Sloane Stephens as her first opponent and Sabine Lisicki close by too (although she should beat Stephens barring an extreme case of rust, and Lisicki is Lisicki). Like with other players who suffered from injuries the last time they played (see: Federer and del Potro on the men's side), her main priority here will be on getting enough match play to confirm that she's fit enough to be ready for the US Open. The same could be said of Azarenka too, actually.

[kitsum]

Some belated thoughts on the Cincinnati draw (men's edition)

I sadly won't have much time to follow the Cincinnati tournament this week and I even missed posting about the finals in Canada (although a good summary would be: "Rafa and Serena kicked ass, and Milos and Sorana had a great week too, Netgate aside"), so I'll just whip up a quick analysis of the draw while I have a bit of spare time tonight:

1) Pretty much every recent article written about Roger Federer have focused on how his current No. 5 ranking is going to tumble even further if he fails to defend his title here, and the draw gods did not do him any favors by placing him in the same half as Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, and Tomas Berdych. The most important long-term factor for Federer right now, however, is not his ranking or title count but making sure that his back and new racket are good enough to hold up for the US Open. I think that his focus here will be more on getting some match play in preparation for the US Open without overtaxing himself and hoping that he gets a kinder draw in New York than on defending his title outright.

2) Novak Djokovic could not have asked for a better draw here, with poor Richard Gasquet being set up to be slaughtered by him yet again in the QFs. While this does not guarantee that he'll win the title -- keep in mind that he's made the Cincinnati final four times and lost every time to Andy Murray or Roger Federer there -- this is a great opportunity for him to regroup after his loss to Nadal in Montreal and keep Nadal within striking distance in the race for year-end No. 1. If he doesn't defend his finalist points from last year at the very least with *this* kind of draw, it will be a genuine disappointment for him.

3) Rafael Nadal doesn't really have anything to prove here after his title run in Montreal. With that said...you know that he's not going to tank any matches here just to get more rest before the US Open, especially if he can keep building on his points lead over Djokovic in the Race to London. And even though he's never won -- or even made the final of -- this tournament, he's proven over and over again that one underestimates him at their own peril. I'm predicting at least a semifinal appearance for him. (Which naturally means that he's going to lose in his opening round now that I've jinxed him.)

4) If history is anything to judge by, Andy Murray doesn't necessarily need a deep run here to be in good enough shape for the US Open -- he lost early in both Canada and Cincinnati last year and then won the US Open anyway. Still, I really do want to see him make a deep run here, if only because I'd love to see a Murray-Nadal SF and if Murray's recent success will translate into better results against an opponent he has a lopsided losing record to. Of course, there's that tricky matter of him potentially facing Ernests Gulbis for the second time in a row in his opening round, so I'm not making any bets here. (Although I am inclined to think that Gulbis, being Gulbis, won't be able to replicate last week's feat against him.)

5) So far this year, Juan Martin del Potro has been following a trend of losing early in tournaments everyone expects him to do well in (Australian Open, Miami, Montreal) and doing well in tournaments everyone expects him to lose early in (Indian Wells, Wimbledon). If this trend continues, he's going to do very well here where he's defending SF points from last year. But much like with Federer, the main concern for him is ensuring that he's healthy enough for the US Open, the most important tournament of this part of the season.

[kitsum]

A few thoughts about the Rogers Cup draw (men's edition)

1) Many people are predicting a Djokovic-del Potro final here, and I'll admit that would be a dream final for me too. I can't help but think that people might be underestimating Andy Murray's prospects just a wee bit, though; Murray admittedly didn't do so well here in the last two years, but he's won here two times in the past and he's coming in on a Wimbledon high instead of a Wimbledon disappointment this time. He does have the trickiest quarter of the draw with Ernests Gulbis, Grigor Dimitrov and Fabio Fognini in it but these players are just as capable of sabotaging themselves as they are of sabotaging top players' chances, if not more.

If the much-anticipated Murray-del Potro QF does come to pass, I'd actually give Murray the (very slight) edge over del Potro because during del Potro's impressive 2008-09 US hardcourt seasons, Murray was actually the player who consistently gave him the most trouble -- he beat del Potro in a very tight QF at the 2008 US Open and an even tighter final at the 2009 Rogers Cup. And we all know that Murray can give Djokovic a run for his money on hard courts.

2) In general, the men's field doesn't feel as open to a surprise result as the women's, mainly because Djokovic and Murray managed to rise above the chaos at Wimbledon and del Potro seems to be maintaining his momentum from his Wimbledon semifinaist appearance.

Rafael Nadal does come into this tournament with quite a few Wimbledon-related question marks surrounding him, though. He's confirmed that he's not going to disappear for seven months like he did last year, which is awesome, and he proved in Indian Wells that his body can withstand hard courts with sufficient rest. It's not out of the question for him to win here, even with Djokovic in his path -- we are talking about the same player who can power entire civilizations with his sheer competitive will, after all.

With all that said...I do think that Wimbledon has left Nadal with more things to prove in the latter half of this season than he would have liked, and that they're not going to come as easily for him as they did when his body was still fresh and he could stick to mainly clay courts. Nadal is perfectly capable of winning here and in future tournaments, but he's probably going to have a lot more closer matches than he did in the first half of this season and he's going to need a bit more luck along the way too.

3) David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych enter this tournament as two very quiet top 8 seeds. They also happen to be in the same Big Four-less quarter with John Isner as the only real threat in it. Whatever occurs in that quarter will likely be overshadowed by the other 3 quarters, so I'll just use my remaining space here to remind everyone that David Ferrer is currently at a career-high No. 3 in the rankings and that even if Nadal overtakes him in the following weeks, he still deserves at least a bit of recognition for that achievement. And that Tomas Berdych continues to be awesome at Twitter.

(...So my posts didn't end up THAT short, after all. Whoops.)