Discover Top Posts Tagged with #dubsforlife

Why the Warriors are going to be better than anyone gives them credit for in the playoffs

Okay, I don't claim to be any sort of expert on, well, pretty much anything, but I have been watching the NBA rather closely this year. Especially the Golden State Warriors. And they are an impressive bunch. Wins over the Heat, the Thunder, and 3 wins over the Clippers in 4 regular season games. Keep that in mind.

Those stats should be good enough to grab people's attention, but let's be honest, unless you're an "expert" or "analyst", you look at shooting percentage and the record. The Warriors have excelled in those areas, too. 30-18 on the year, 8th in field goal percentage (45.8%), and 1st in 3 point percentage (39.4%), thanks in large part to Curry's 45% from long range and the three key bigs (Lee, Bogut, Landry) all posting percentages above 51%. More importantly, opponents shoot 43.4% against them. Which is important. Good stats. Above average stats. But this was all done without the help of Bogut and Brandon Rush. And while Rush isn't exactly relevant because he is gone all season, Andrew Bogut is a game changer. We've all seen his impact already (skip to about 3:10). But stats wise, Ezeli's 2.6 points and 4 rebounds a game is getting a major upgrade in Bogut, and the team field goal percentage is just going to go up. In terms of rebounding, it probably won't affect the team stat, but what it will do is make it so that the Warriors won't need to gang rebound quite as much. This allows Thompson and Barnes to leak out more and, in turn, will lead to more transition/fast break points. The warriors play their best basketball running up and down the floor, up-tempo, shootout style. More of it will only help their cause.

Back to the point, which was to talk about why the Warriors are going to do much better in the playoffs than anyone expects. Look at some of the teams the Warriors have lost to. Memphis, Sacramento, Lakers, Orlando, Denver, Chicago. I'm leaving out losses to Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Miami, who can beat anybody on any given night. Every one of those teams mentioned have one thing in common is imposing big men. Specifically centers that can rebound and score. You know who fixes that? I'll give you a hint. His name starts with an "A" and ends with "ndrew Bogut." He won't get rid of all our matchup weaknesses, but he does help out in a dick ton of them.

So, I think everybody is in a general consensus that the Warriors will make the playoffs. At worst they'll be a 7 seed, and, being only 3 games behind the Clips, could even be a 3 seed. Do you realize the significance of that? HOME COURT ADVANTAGE. Sorry. Done fangirling. Realistically, the Warriors will probably be a 4 or 5 seed, although I wouldn't be surprised with the standings just the way they are, with the Warriors at a 6 seed. Home court advantage isn't necessarily a cause of death for a postseason run. At one point in the season they boasted leading the league in road wins and the best record against teams over .500.

First round matchups: pretty much the only teams the warriors need to worry about matching up with is San Antonio and Denver. Then again, I'm pretty sure most teams are trying to avoid those two. They're just tough, especially at home. We know we can beat Oklahoma City, and I think the reasons behind losing to Memphis (early season shooting slump in first game, lack of Bogut in the second) have been fixed. We'll find out soon.

Honestly, the ideal matchup in my opinion would be the Clippers. Everybody says that the Warriors wouldn't be able to hang in a 7 game series but they know how to beat the Clippers and they've done it quite a bit this season. They'd be one game away from moving on to the second round if it was a playoff series. If that's the first round matchup, Warriors move on. Actually, Warriors move on regardless. They can matchup with anyone.

So then there's the second round. I think we can pretty safely assume that San Antonio and Oklahoma City will move on. So it's gunna be one of them. Maybe they don't beat those teams, but it's a good series. At least 6 games. I'll consider it an upset if they beat those teams, but I won't be surprised. And if the Warriors win that series, who's to say they don't ride that momentum all the way into the FINALS. And if they get there, provided the team they face isn't Miami or Chicago, (which means the Knicks or possibly the Nets, because let's face it, most of the East sucks), don't count them out.

Obviously I'm getting a little ahead of myself to think the title will come back to the Bay this year. But why do I say these things? Because the Warriors frustrate teams. Most teams rely on either defense (Indiana) or shooting (Houston, as we saw tonight). The Warriors do both. They can out shoot defenses and, most of the time, shut down shooters. This is a team that kept San Antonio, Miami, OKC, and the Clippers under 100 points. They score, they rebound, they shoot well, they defend, and they now matchup well. They're deep. They can beat any team in the playoffs. The only thing that will work against them is their obvious lack of playoff experience. But Marc Jackson is no stranger to how things work in the playoffs, and I think that will do a lot to nullify that problem.

Don't sleep on the Warriors, kids. They're a team to watch out for.