#election model

[redistrictgirl]

As of September 8th, 2024, Kamala Harris is slightly favored (64% chance) in the race for the presidency.

So first, let's talk about that topline.

Some other forecasts have become noticeably more bullish for former President Trump, and that's because they're looking at the polling margins decline and declaring that the convention bump is still declining. But that's not the important part of the picture. Here, my polling "bins" come in handy. Let's look at the week-by-week average of national polling:

Week of August 11th: 47.7 Harris, 45.8 Trump

Week of August 18th (week of DNC): 47.9 Harris, 43.8 Trump

Week of August 25th: 47.9 Harris, 45.0 Trump

Week of September 1st: 49.0 Harris, 46.4 Trump

Notice anything? Vice President Harris held steady through the DNC- the convention bump merely took the form of a dip in polling for Mr. Trump. My personal theory as to why that is rests in the tone of the convention - the organizers clearly attempted a big-tent strategy to reach out to disaffected Republicans. But that makes undecided voters, not new voters for Democrats. And now both candidates are snatching up undecided voters - we are officially in full gear.

Now, let's break down the closest states:

Arizona (51% chance of being won by Harris) - This state had the biggest swing this week thanks to continued gains for Mr. Trump. The fundamentals of this state are still strong for Ms. Harris, however.

Georgia (62% chance of being won by Trump) - Another Romney-Trump-Biden state, the Vice President is keeping this state close, but it may not be enough given that the Deep South isn't known for its abundance of persuadable voters. Fundamentals and polling line up well here.

North Carolina (64% chance of being won by Trump) - The polls have this state being neck-and-neck, but again, the model expects Mr. Trump to have an easier time picking up undecided voters here.

Pennsylvania (67% chance of being won by Harris) - This state has the closest polling average in our dataset, but the model seems to believe we're more likely to be looking at a polling miss like 2022's instead of 2020's.

Wisconsin (69% chance of being won by Harris) - If there's any state the polls could fumble, I personally think it's this one. I just can't buy this whiter, more rural Rust Belt state voting to the left of Michigan. But even just looking at fundamentals, Ms. Harris is still a very, very slim favorite in the Badger State.

Now for some other notable swings:

Nevada (77% chance of being won by Harris) - Another massive swing in the Southwest, but this time it's bad for the former President. The model is now pretty confident that he's locked out of around 48.5% of the state's voters, which... you know... gives a narrow path for victory. He better hope that Ms. Harris doesn't gain any further here.

Texas (96% chance of being won by Trump) - Texas has leaped back off the board for a similar reason to Nevada - all indicators suggest that Mr. Trump is approaching 50% of the vote in this state. It would probably take a genuine polling miss in the Vice President's favor to make the state winnable.

So where does this leave each candidate? The Rust Belt continues to get more important for Ms. Harris, and Mr. Trump still needs Georgia and North Carolina to come through for him. So on a macro level, outside of the Southwest getting weird, things have actually been fairly unsurprising, which you'd expect from a short week. Let's see if there's a shakeup after the debate and in the coming months.

[redistrictgirl]

Noticed people reblogging my presidential forecast two days after polls closed. I appreciate your faith in me even if it defies logic and chronology.

[redistrictgirl]

The way I see it, Republicans have three paths to ending our democracy:

SCOTUS (including Roberts and Gorsuch) straight-up saying “yeah you can be God-emperor, have fun.”

Trying to rig elections (when Democrats control almost every executive position in swing state governments)

Trump and/or Vance simply refusing to leave the White House

Only the latter feels highly plausible to me, and it’s just as likely to lead to a completely impotent Fed as a 10+ year regime if it succeeds without consequence.

I tell you this not as blind reassurance - the Trump/Vance admin will be brutal even in the best four-year-long case - but to tell you to keep your eye on the ball as we organize.

[redistrictgirl]

Early thoughts:

Looks like we’re hedging very closely to my model’s median outcome. This is gonna be incredibly close, but if there’s any bright spot for Ms. Harris, it’s Pennsylvania, and that’s the state she must outperform expectations in.

The Senate is very much gone for Democrats, relying on a moonshot in Montana.

[redistrictgirl]

As of November 4th, 2024, the race for the US Presidency is a dead heat (52% chance for Kamala Harris).

Dear God, this is close, but overall, the Vice President has remained at least a nominal favorite for the entire election cycle in this forecast. She did fall behind in Pennsylvania's polling average, a major blow to her chances overall, but Mr. Trump closed out relatively weakly in the Southeast and lost a little ground in Wisconsin. Here are the states without an overwhelming favorite, from right to left:

Alaska (93% for Trump)

Maine's Second Congressional District (80% for Trump)

Georgia (78% for Trump)

Arizona (76% for Trump)

North Carolina (64% for Trump)

Nevada (53% for Harris)

Pennsylvania (54% for Harris)

Wisconsin (58% for Harris)

Nebraska's Second Congressional District (72% for Harris)

Michigan (73% for Harris)

Maine (92% for Harris)

Minnesota (94% for Harris)

New Mexico (94% for Harris)

Thank you for joining this ride with me. Stay calm and relax for a day (except for voting, if you haven't yet).

[redistrictgirl]

I'm surprised, but this debate felt like a genuine draw to me, which probably means that JD Vance won it. As I said previously I don't think this changes the state of the race very much either way. Watch out for "I've become friends with school shooters" and "I'm focused on the future" to be used in attack ads.

[redistrictgirl]

As of September 22nd, 2024, Kamala Harris is moderately favored (74% chance) in the race for the presidency.

Never mind, something happened.

Not in Nebraska, mind you, where it seemed Republicans would get their wish of a winner-take-all system. The effort appears to have fallen short by just one vote.

But state-level polling has reflected a post-debate bounce for Vice President Harris in a way that national polls just haven't, especially in the Rust Belt. As such, former President Trump's paths to victory seem to be getting narrower and narrower. The battlefield at large has also narrowed as about a tenth of last week's undecided voters have committed to a candidate, with states like Iowa, Florida, Virginia, and Maine showing over 19-in-20 odds for their favorite. With that said, let's go over the closest states:

Arizona (50% chance for Trump) - The Grand Canyon State is about as neck-and-neck as you'd expect from 2020, with both candidates leading polls here this week. Mr. Trump did hit 50% in an Emerson poll, which is enough to maintain an edge in that department, but the overall rating, once you factor in fundamentals, is a genuine coin flip.

North Carolina (51% chance for Trump) - Ms. Harris at this point holds a slim lead in polling in the Tar Heel State, but my model expects some reversion to the mean in a highly polarized southern state. Overall, the advantages each candidate holds here are actually opposite to Arizona, so I feel like the median outcome really is each party winning one of these coveted Sun Belt tossups.

Georgia (70% chance for Trump) - The narrowing window for upsets really puts an exclamation mark on this state, where the former president gets his first 50% and consistently leads in the polls. There's still a meaningful window for the Vice President - the southern trend of reversion to the mean actually helps her somewhat here.

Nevada (75% chance for Harris) - Now, we move onto vulnerable states for Democrats, though we remain in the Sun Belt. Ms. Harris hit 51% in a Morning Consult poll this week - genuinely impressive! - but my model isn't convinced that she's truly consolidated majority support here.

Wisconsin (79% chance for Harris) - The polls say that Mr. Trump is down by two points and that only about 3.5 percent of voters remain undecided for a head-to-head. Remember that not all undecideds will commit to a candidate (historically this number is about two-thirds), so... yes, he's in deep trouble here, though it's not insurmountable, especially if the polls actually miss. As always, the fundamentals point towards a substantially closer race.

Now, let's go over the elephants in the room... or perhaps the donkeys?

Pennsylvania (80% chance for Harris) - The Keystone State rocketed towards Democrats this week on the heels of an extremely robust polling sample. Only one out of ten polls showed Ms. Harris under 49% of the vote here or gave the Republican a lead. That's a very brutal combination. The polling still isn't as commanding for Democrats as it is in Wisconsin, but the fundamentals are a lot rosier for them.

Michigan (90% chance for Harris) - Good lord. If you're wondering why this number is so high, look at this week's polling. 52% for Harris, 52% for Harris, 50%, 51%. It seems clear at this point that she has the support of a majority of voters in the state.

Overall, this race has very much begun slipping away from the former President. At this point, he needs at least one genuine upset in the Blue Wall while holding onto two coin flips in the Sun Belt. That math is tricky, and unless the Vice President's numbers start coming back down to earth or a genuine polling error happens, it will be an incredibly difficult tightrope to walk. And things could still change - he still has one-in-four odds, after all - but all the pressure is clearly on him.

[redistrictgirl]

As of September 15th, 2024, Kamala Harris is slightly favored (66% chance) in the race for the presidency.

Repeat after me: Nothing Ever Happens.

In spite of a highly-watched and newsworthy debate that the Vice President is widely agreed to have won, there has barely been any budge in our topline and two of the three swing states with major probability shifts have actually moved towards Trump! There are two asterisks here in the lack of change, both of which are fairly minor in my opinion for the reasons below.

First, state-level polling has been scarce since the debate. What we have seen, ho-hum polls in the Rust Belt, don't inspire that much confidence that anything has changed. Second, our "bin" for this week does include some pre-debate polling! They don't affect the averages that much, though, only taking away three-tenths of a percentage point from Ms. Harris and one-tenth of a percentage point from Mr. Trump. That's meaningful in aggregate, but not seismic.

With that out of the way, let's take a look at the closest states:

Arizona (55% chance of being won by Trump) - Ms. Harris still has not led in a poll in this state for nearly three weeks. The asterisk here is that Mr. Trump still cannot break 50%, and there's a chance that his vote share is also declining (though we don't have enough polling to say for sure.) For now, this uncertainty as well as passable fundamentals for Democrats are enough to keep the state a tossup.

North Carolina (56% chance of being won by Trump) - This is one of the few instances where the fundamentals look rosier for Republicans than state-level polling. Shockingly, the Vice President is the first candidate to have hit 50% in about two weeks in this state, doing so in a Quinnipiac poll near the start of the week. There are plenty of fine polls for the former president, however, and I'd still expect some reversion to the mean in general, so he remains the favorite.

Georgia (66% chance of being won by Trump) - This week's Peach State polls have been very kind to Mr. Trump as he hovers around 49% decided, where Ms. Harris' share is more volatile. There haven't been many other interesting developments in the state.

Pennsylvania (69% chance of being won by Harris) - The perennial swing state continuing to hold strong for Democrats is a promising sign for them as the field of play slowly narrows. We don't have much data to work with, but the 49-46 Harris result from Morning Consult pre-debate is intriguing.

Nevada (70% chance of being won by Harris) - This state has seen positive developments for the former President alongside the rest of the Sun Belt this week, with polling from both Morning Consult and Redfield & Wilton (post-debate!) showing a neck-and-neck race. That said, there aren't too many undecided voters for either candidate to pick up in the state, so Harris will still be fairly comfortable here as long as she maintains an overall lead.

So do I think we're destined to spend the next few months in Lean D purgatory? Hardly. For one, as undecided voters make up their mind, we can expect more confidence in the model. Our sample size will also increase, which will make it easier for the model to pick up on smaller movement without outliers throwing things out of whack. That said, this is very much a close race, and even as Harris nears "Vegas favorite" territory of winning, upsets happen all the time!