Exclusive: Experts decry lack of nationally determined contributions in negotiating document with weeks to go before UN-set deadline
EU member states are still wrangling over crucial commitments on the climate crisis with no sign of agreement, according to a leaked draft text seen by the Guardian.
With just weeks to go before a UN-set deadline, the European Commission and key member states remain at loggerheads over targets on greenhouse gas emissions, with the prospect of a strong outcome looking increasingly imperilled.
The negotiating document seen by the Guardian leaves blanks marked with square brackets, and placeholder text where the key numbers laying out new targets should be. Experts said the lack of any numbers, even of a provisional nature, or a range, was a poor sign at such a late stage of the process.
Niklas Höhne, a co-founder of the research organisation New Climate Institute, said: “It is disappointing to see that the internal discussions on the EU’s new climate target do not yet include target values. It is getting very late. It is now extremely urgent that the EU presents a new climate target to the international negotiations. So far, only 28 out of 196 countries have submitted a new target. Only the EU’s submission could unleash momentum and move other countries to follow suit.”
Member states and the commission have been working on an agreement for months to fulfil the bloc’s obligations under the 2015 Paris climate agreement to come up with commitments on carbon reductions for the next decade.
All countries must produce national plans on emissions, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), under the Paris agreement, but so far only about 30 have done so. The UN has called on all countries to submit their NDCs before a key meeting on the sidelines of the UN general assembly on 24 September, to give time for them to be assessed before the Cop30 climate summit in Brazil this November.
The EU’s current target is for reductions of 55% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared with 1990 levels, which the bloc should be able to meet if policies are strengthened.
The next NDC, for 2035, should set the EU on track to meet its goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, which would imply a reduction of 90% to 95% in emissions by 2040, and therefore a reduction of about 74% to 78% in emissions by 2035, depending on how it is calculated.
Michael Petroni, a climate policy analyst for Climate Analytics, said that to reach net zero emissions, more action was needed in the shorter term, rather than delaying action until closer to mid-century. He said: “The leaked document fails to state a 2035 target, but a graph implies a simple linear path from 2030 to 2040. Our analysis clearly shows that none of the resulting 2035 levels would be aligned with 1.5C. A straight-line approach delays critical near-term action, at a time when global leadership is most needed.”
The EU’s discussions are made more complicated by timelines. The EU’s internal plans call for a 2040 target, which was supposed to be set first, so that an NDC with a 2035 goal could be extrapolated from that. But some member states have raised the prospect of separating the discussions, so that an NDC could be set first and a 2040 target later.
Any separation would almost certainly imply a weaker NDC and 2040 target than experts are calling for, however, and any delay to the NDC would be seized on by those who wish Cop30 to fail.
Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has raised the prospect of a delay or dilution of the bloc’s commitments. Campaigners fear Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, may weaken despite his need for backing from the Greens, and Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister of Italy, has railed against EU green policies in the past. Viktor Orbán, the hard-right leader of Hungary, is also expected to push to weaken the target.
Any perception of a lack of commitment from the EU would cause problems at Cop30, a summit already troubled by US hostility and geopolitical headwinds. Donald Trump has, for a second time, announced the withdrawal of the US from the Paris agreement, and is dismantling climate policies and environmental institutions in the US.
Sieber warned that the EU must play a stronger role: “At a time when we should be collectively stewarding the Paris agreement, it is a bitter and dangerous irony that French president Macron is attempting to water down ambition. These games undermine Europe’s credibility at Cop30, stain the legacy of the Paris agreement, and shamefully betray the climate commitments the world is counting on.”
