Spiral of silence theory describes the process by which an moral opinion becomes dominant.
It is a dynamic process that works as follows:
As the majority become interested in minority opinions, the minority faces the threat and fear of isolation. As interest increases so does the threat. This continues until the minority no longer speaks out against the majority, establishes a new social norm or the status quo--the majority opinion.
Factors
The following factors leads to a process of formation, change and reinforcement of public opinion.
-- Threat of isolation:
In order to maintain social order (to guarantee agreement), society threatens to isolate those individuals who violate the consensus. (e.g. rejection by peers, publicity by the media)
-- Fear of isolation:
people fear becoming social isolates and thus take measures to avoid such a consequence. / People feel more comfortable agreeing with opinions they know are wrong instead of telling others their ideas.
-- Willingness to speak out
Individuals tend to publicly express their opinions when they perceive their view to be dominant or on the rise. And in the reverse, tend not to express their opinion when they perceive their view is falling out of favour.
-- Gauging/Sensing the dominant opinion
People gauge the dominant opinion based on the opinion of people in dominant positions, friends, family and people they trust and respect (Note: original content). Mass media also plays a major role. Based on these the individual may strengthen or alter the personal beliefs.
-- Pluralistic ignorance
Where a majority of group members privately reject a norm, but assume incorrectly that most others accept it.
people who are highly educated, or who have greater affluence, and the few other cavalier individuals who do not fear isolation, are likely to speak out regardless of public opinion.
Hardcore nonconformists:
"people who have already been rejected for their beliefs and have nothing to lose by speaking out."
The avant-garde:
"the intellectuals, artists, and reformers in the isolated minority who speak out because they are convinced they are ahead of the times."
Individualistic vs. collective society
Spiral of silence theory predicts that the United States, an "individualistic" society, would be more likely than Taiwan, a "collectivist" society, to speak out, put emphasis on their personal goals, put the "I" identity over the "we" identity, and strive for personal success. This was confirmed in a telephone survey conducted in the two countries.
Other factors, besides the fear of isolation, that could cause the spiral of silence.
people fear isolation in their small social circles (close family and friends) more than they do in the population at large. Within a large nation, one can always find a group of people who share one's opinions.
personal characteristics (e.g. a positive self-concept and lacks a sense of shame) also influence on whether a person will willingly speak out.
The culture that a person lives in greatly affects their willingness to speak out. “Not every culture holds freedom of speech in as high regard as the United States, and in some cultures, open expression of ideas is forbidden.“