Feinberg Forecast: Scott Updates Oscar Predictions After AFI Fest and Ahead of Halloween
As October wraps up, only a few major awards contenders remain unseen by industry insiders — or are still under press embargo: Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century), Ella McCay (20th Century), and Wicked: For Good (Universal).
Read in depth article here: Feinberg Forecast: Scott Updates Oscar Predictions After AFI Fest and Ahead of Halloween
Since the last update, Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (A24) screened for industry audiences on October 8, with Timothée Chalamet’s lead performance emerging as the standout. AFI Fest (October 22–26) brought the world premieres of Nuremberg (Sony Classics), starring Russell Crowe and Rami Malek, and Song Sung Blue (Focus), featuring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson. Both were warmly received at Hollywood’s TCL Chinese Theatre but will likely face tougher odds with critics.
2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions via Feinberg Forecast
A note from Scott: Now that the Venice, Telluride and Toronto film festivals are in the rearview mirror, and with the New York, Hamptons, Newport Beach and Savannah film festivals just around the corner, I’ve decided to update my charts to reflect recent developments — and to include five categories that weren’t in the prior version, best cinematography, costume design, film editing, original…
With the ultimate spherical of Emmys voting beginning on Thursday (Aug. 15) and working for the following 11 days (by means of Aug. 26), it’s possible you’ll be questioning how I believe the race is trying. Beneath is my newest evaluation of dozens of classes, a few of which I’ve not projected earlier than.
Please word: Consider Scott like a meteorologist — his purpose with the forecast is to…
The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg analyzes all 23 categories and believes the nomination leaders on Tuesday morning will be 'Dune' (11), 'The Power of the Dog' (10), 'Belfast' (9) and 'West Side Story' (8).
The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist offers his latest read of the race, now including the cinematography and original song categories.
Best Picture
FRONTRUNNERS
A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Green Book (Universal) TIFF
The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
Black Panther (Disney)
BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW
Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
MAJOR THREATS
Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW
If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
Ben Is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF
Beautiful Boy (Amazon) TIFF, LOND
The Wife (Sony Classics) TIFF ('17)
Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
Best Director
FRONTRUNNERS
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
MAJOR THREATS
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Steve McQueen (Widows)
Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
Paul Greengrass (22 July)
Best Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
Lucas Hedges (Ben Is Back)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
MAJOR THREATS
Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) — podcast
Best Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
MAJOR THREATS
Viola Davis (Widows)
Julia Roberts (Ben Is Back)
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
Charlize Theron (Tully)
These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
GLOSSARY The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.
