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Quatrains: Fergus Cullen, 'Wisdom of Working Men'
“One thing you must accept,” Said the butcher—”and I don’t intend this meanly: To live is to get divided up And to live well is to divide up cleanly.” “One thought that made sense of things,” Said the baker—“perhaps even solved life’s riddle: To live is to harden in the heat And to live well is to stay soft in the middle.” “One principle strikes me as ultimate,” Said the candlestick-maker—“if not…
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GOP observers warn of impending down ballot carnage for Granite State Republicans
(Photo: Michael Vadon/CC BY-SA 2.0)
The down ballot implications of having a deeply flawed candidate at the top of the ticket are beginning to hit New Hampshire Republicans. Those who are not on the ballot in November are warning of sweeping losses in November.
Former House speaker Bill O’Brien, a persistent critic of Donald Trump who nevertheless says he will be voting for him in November, reacted to a new poll showing Hillary Clinton with a 15 point lead in the Granite State by sounding the alarm.
“If you are a down ballot candidate from the same party as a presidential candidate losing by 15%,” O’Brien wrote on Facebook, “it is like having a 25 lbs. weight tied around your neck and then jumping into the deep end. You might not drown,” he concluded, “but you had better hope your deep end is only 4 feet deep.”
A ‘dramatic post-convention bump’
The survey, sponsored by WBUR and conducted by MassINC Polling Group at the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention, has Clinton leading Trump 47 percent to 32 percent. The survey of 609 likely New Hampshire voters gives Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson 8 percent with 3 percent expressing support for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
While these results are fairly consistent with early results from other battleground states, Clinton numbers are likely inflated by a temporary post-convention bounce (a phenomenon that may be the result of changing patterns of survey nonresponse rather than changes in voter intention).
In its "polls-plus forecast,” which factors in polls, the economy and historical data, FiveThirtyEight projects Clinton will win New Hampshire by just under three points, 47.5 percent to 44.8 percent, which translates to a 63 percent win probability. (FiveThirtyEight’s “polls only forecast” has Clinton winning by a larger 47.5 percent to 42.7 percent margin with a 72 percent win probability.
(Graphic: fivethirtyeight.com)
‘Let’s kill them all’
Nevertheless, Ed Mosca, the former House counsel under then-Speaker O’Brien, predicts the down ballot impact of the election will be catastrophic for Republicans. He believes It is “very unlikely” that the GOP will maintain control of the New Hampshire House where they currently hold 230 seats in the 400-seat chamber.
Mosca predicts big gains for Democrats in the lower chamber, tweeting that he sees Democrats winning back the House majority with “around 250 seats.”
Former state party chair Fergus Cullen reminds Republicans, who may believe these warnings are exaggerated, of the down ballot results in previous wave elections.
“In 2008 and 2010, voters did not draw distinctions [between the presidential candidate and down ballot candidates],” he told the New York Times, “It was not like Passover, where the door was marked, ‘This one should be spared.’ No, the Angel of Death came in and said no ‘Let’s kill them all.’ ”
VIDEO: GOP Gears Up for 2016 Campaign
VIDEO: GOP Gears Up for 2016 Campaign
Two weeks have elapsed in 2015, but it’s already 2016 for presidential hopefuls. Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, discusses the political landscape with Sara Murray. Photo: AP.
(more…)
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Be careful what you wish for: Invasive species
Image: zen / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
In 2007, then chair of the New Hampshire GOP Fergus Cullen sowed the seeds for the party takeover by the folks he now disparages as "Tea Partiers, Ron Paul apostles and fringe figures."
Hoping to put build a coalition to reverse Democratic gains in 2006, Cullen told Dave Weigel, "I'm excited by the fact that Ron Paul is turning on some libertarians and I hope they'll want to get active in the Republican Party or support our Republican candidates."
Fast forward to 2014 and Cullen now laments that the party has been overrun by an invasive species. In a Union Leader op-ed, he wrote, "Political parties have a responsibility to weed themselves of people who don’t represent their views, and primary season is the best time to do that."
"Take the free staters," he wrote.
Video: David Weigel
Will the real Republican please stand up?
Image: Everpool / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
Former New Hampshire Republican Party chair Fergus Cullen caused quite a stir among New Hampshire libertarians this week when he called out Free Staters for "masquerading" as Republicans:
In recent years a growing handful of free staters have managed to get elected to the New Hampshire legislature through, shall we say, false pretenses. Some have masqueraded as a conventional Republican or cross-dressed as a mainstream Democrat, keeping their true views hidden from voters. Mall security guards call this sort of thing willful concealment.
Free State Project chair Aaron Day, who is leading an attempt to purge the party of undesirables, responded in kind:
In recent years a growing handful of establishment Republicans have managed to get elected to the state legislature through false pretenses. Some have masqueraded as fiscally conservative — signing pledges not to raise taxes and then immediately voting for bloated government spending once elected. They have hidden their true views from voters long enough.
Brown: Tough questions for thee, but not for me
"I just think that if you're going to find out where people stand, you gotta ask them tough questions..." (Scott Brown,12/28/2011)
“We’re not going to be talking about the social issues. I’m sorry.” (Scott Brown, 3/28/2014)
In his 2012 Senate contest with Elizabeth Warren, then-Sen. Scott Brown blasted reporters for not asking Warren tough questions. "It's all fluff. It's all fluff. Gimme a break," he told a Boston Herald reporter. "I just think that if you're going to find out where people stand, you gotta ask them tough questions like you guys ask me every single day."
At a campaign stop in Rollinsford on Friday, Fergus Cullen reports Brown apparently decided Granite Staters will have to find out where he stands without the tough questions. "We’re not going to be talking about the social issues. I’m sorry,” he told the audience.
Fergus Cullen hopeful Scott Brown will save N.H. GOP from 'Free State-tainted' fringe candidates
Fergus Cullen, former chair of the New Hampshire GOP, is hopeful that having Scott Brown on the ticket will prevent "libertarian-oriented, sometimes Free State-tainted activists" (like 2012 state Senate candidate Josh Youssef) from winning Republican primaries this cycle:
In a low turnout primary, anything can happen. Two years ago, a guy whose definition of liberty extends to not paying his taxes or his child support got nominated by Republicans in the Laconia-Franklin district, handing a Republican seat to Democrat state Sen. Andrew Hosmer. Having Brown on the September ballot means there will be higher turnout and a somewhat more ideologically diverse electorate. This should make it harder for fringe candidates to upset mainstream conservatives in the primary.
Former NH GOP Chairman Saves $1000/mo. On Obamacare And Still Complains
Former NH GOP Chairman Saves $1000/mo. On Obamacare And Still Complains
New Hampshire former Republican chairman Fergus Cullen did what was best for his family and saved money using Obamacare. What is he complaining about? Image: E.Willies
Fergus Cullen saved $1000/mo.What’s there to complain about?
Fergus Cullen is former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party (2007-2008). He is a principal at Fergus Cullen Communications and a freelance writer.
Fergus Cullen
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