« The U.S. has no cards because we’ve been giving them away. If we ever want to play them again, we will have to win them back: Arm Ukraine, expand sanctions, stop the lethal drone swarms, break the Russian economy, and win the war. Then there will be peace. »
— Historian and journalist Anne Applebaum at The Atlantic. (archived)
Not only does the US have no cards, but Russia is in a more precarious position than many people understand.
Ukraine has had to rely on its wits to survive and the country has been developing innovative weapons systems which have hampered Russia. The latest such weapon is the Flamingo missile.
Ukraine's new 'Flamingo' missile could significantly damage Russia's defense industry and economy, expert says
Ukraine’s homegrown “Flamingo” missile could significantly damage Russia’s economy and defense-industrial base, military analyst Pavlo Narozhnyi told Radio NV, arguing the system packs far more punch than the drones that have already harried Russian industry. In recent days, Ukraine unveiled the long-range “Flamingo” missile and said serial production is underway. The weapon is designed to strike targets up to 3,000 kilometers away. Whether it can systematically degrade Russia’s defense industry and apply broader economic pressure is the key question, Narozhnyi said.
Just a reminder that it was a Ukrainian weapon, the Нептун Р-360 (Neptune R-360) which sank the Moskva – the flagship of Putin's Black Sea Fleet.
The Flamingo apparently outclasses the US Tomahawk cruise missile.
By size and weight, the Flamingo is said to outclass many modern cruise missiles, including the Tomahawk, whose warhead weighs about 450 kilograms with a range of up to roughly 1,600 kilometers. That could make it not just an analogue of well-known Western systems but a potentially more powerful tool for striking deep rear-area targets. A one-ton payload opens the door to damaging large depots, factories, energy nodes and airfields deep inside enemy territory. Mobile launchers allow firing from varied locations, complicating any preemptive strikes by the opponent. Camouflaging launchers as civilian trucks or containerized systems adds an element of surprise.
I hope the Flamingo has many surprises in store for Putin.
A range of 3,000 km (1,864 miles) is quite deep. 3,000 is just slightly under the air distance from NYC to El Paso, Texas.
Ukraine could launch Flamingos even to hit deep into Siberia without flying over third countries. No part of European Russia (except maybe some Arctic islands) would be out of range of the Flamingo.
So Putin may be pressuring Trump all of a sudden because he understands that these Ukrainian missiles present a significant threat to his ability to wage war against Ukraine.
Of course, seeing is believing. So I hope Ukraine provides us with a successful demonstration of the Flamingo in action in the near future.