#flawed data

[jayther]

Flawed Data

Subtext: "We trained it to produce data that looked convincing, and we have to admit the results look convincing!"

[aalt-ctrl-del]

so you want to vote third-party?

Im gonna go ahead and put it out there, and put it into file, for future reference. My predictions based on behavioral studies, herd theory, psychographics, mass Values, and environmental, geographic conditions, have been thus far exceptionally accurate. The science and mathematical estimations behind the pandemic is super basic, not hard at all, which is most frustrating of all.

If you get to vote come Election day - given that you are all still alive by that point with no medical complications - and you choose to vote Republican. Or worse, third party, if you do not vote Democratic.

There is a high probability that you or those of your close relations will contract Corona Virus.

This is not scare tactic or alarmist, this is a loose estimation based on our current political climate and rising trends. I made a post predicting June to be a hard hitting month, that comes from our behavior in May - specifically, the dates 13-17 range. I checked the calendar, those dates are high weekends for a lot of people. It is also Graduations for seniors of high school and college. Classes end for more, finals come to a close.

So, those days were not random. This is a very important time for people. It is also the most lethal. Thus, given the incubation time of the virus, or its capacity for dormancy, we will see results of this May 13-17 spike within 2 weeks, and in June. If, y’know, you disregard stuff that the CDC is cautioning us to do.

Back to voting. By the time elections roll around, and you decide who to vote for, let me reiterate, if you vote anything other than Democratic, you have taken a mediocre percentage I have calculate - lets say 30% possible encounter with the virus. And you do the thing like, vote third party - there is a Risk Factor which bumps your probable encounter with the virus up to 43%. By then, we should have shot past 100,000 deaths. It is estimated that yearly, at least a minimum of 12,000 people will die of the flu, and in the year 2017-2018, source at least 61,000 people died in that year. We have only been exposed to Corona Virus for 3 months, and already have watched a documented 70,000+ die. With quarantine measures in place and state-wide shut downs.

So what is the difference between the Republican and Democratic parties, which factor into my Risk Equation? Simply put, the Republican as of current is inadequate and a joke. They are actively expediting the spread of the Corona Virus. I mean, we have protesters outraged by Quarantine. Science deniers, anti-vaxxers. Sure, there is a high ratio of recovery compared to those who have died, but even the people who have suffered mild symptoms are developing post complications such as organ failure, scarring of the lung tissue, and my favorite, liver failure.

You can’t live without your liver. Its an essential organ. You have only one liver. Its not on the the same turf as the appendix. Your liver blows up, you die a pleasantly painful death source. I really didn’t read this article, I only know that we’re finding these things, like strokes, haunting people in the age bracket 30-40. I mean, you survive Corona Virus like a champ? Awesome. I hope that doesn’t dump a whole aneurysm on you.

Okay, back to voting once more. The Democrat party, is not much more better prepared than the Republican at this point. But, the Democrats and Joe Biden will listen to the scientists and doctors, like Dr. Fauci, and Dr. Birx. They will look into the process of stimulating the economy, while minimizing the trauma and destruction the inadequate and soft trump group is going through. Our chances of getting through this lay with the Democratic group, especially in the fall out from this pandemic. The economic strain businesses are so frightened by, will shatter with trump doing his usual thing of ignoring problems until the problem is way out of control. Which Corona Virus is right now. No exaggeration, its hit full momentum; you’re only options right now are rigorous sanitation practices.

Everybody protesting quarantine would’ve been the type to launch them self out a window when the Stock Market crashed. That’s the sort of people they are. If you want to get through this, you’re going to have to survive first. We can always pick up the pieces and rebuild from the wreckage, but if there’s no one to rebuild, then the tragedy remains a mystery.

And if you’re one of those Russian a-holes “But the sexual harassment allegations”. Omg, you absolute blunt tool. trump is a walking PSA of pedo-incest-creepy-uncle. “Grab her by the pussy,” - trump. “I can go in there and start kissing them, and no one can do anything” bragging trump, about walking into a dressing room for one of those American models programs - idek. trump is a misogynistic creepy bastard, that objectifies his daughter. You reason that thing is gonna be your salvation in these trying times?

And I do vibe with the #metoo movement. I don’t dismiss or discredit Tara Reade, about these sexual allegations, but I question a lot of what she’s doing and saying. For context, we’re in the middle of a pandemic, and Joe Biden has the clout and experience to wipe the floor with trump. And the Democratic party will be the only faction to get us through this crisis with minimal casualties. The infection is beyond controlling at this point, but we will be ruined financially and physically, our economic infrastructure is edging toward a collapse the likes we haven’t seen in 50 years. But this Tara lady, makes allegations at this point in time of this specific year, when it would’ve have been more pertinent to do so at the time Biden was elected Vice-President. EVEN BETTER, DURING THE #METOO movement. 

If those allegations are true and do exist, then she has been paid by someone named trump - or an affiliate to trumps clan - to speak up. Right now. “BECAUSE OF THE EMAILS” I mean, allegations. I’m not saying Democrats are saints, but the parties interests and motives align far better with your chances of survival, and this Tara lady is trying to convince you to tie a noose for you to hang from. I mean, she could have as easily come forward after Biden was elected, or when his election campaign had more steam - that would have been appropriate. But she chose now, because of the pandemic, because people are dying so fast. At an alarming exponential rate. Tara isn’t doing this to be nobEL or help people, she’s been paid, she’s on someone’s salary. You’re gonna die, because you didn’t think this through. Because you think trump, in all his infinite wisdom, and poor business choices, cares about you? He doesn’t. He’s petty, spiteful, he took the landing gear from the plane and he’s trying to sell it back to the highest bidder, which isn’t you.

Right at this time trump is digging graves, and he’s nailing the coffin lid down. Each and every one of us is a statistic in this mess - you are either uncontaminated, infected-asymptomatic, recovered, or dead. And when you recover, there is strong evidence to show that the virus can still infect you once more. trump doesn’t care. He’s tossing out the pandemic team, we’re gonna get a whole new set of people in to lead us through this; unqualified people. Beautiful people, the sort of people trump likes to surround himself with. Yes people. Group think. People dumber than a blender with a massage feature.

so in conclusion, if you think voting third party is a good idea. 43% higher chance of encountering that virus. The infected and carriers is spreading, corporate businesses and franchises are forcing their GMs not to report those that have been infected, and they sure as hell are not closing their doors to decontaminate. No contact tracing, we have no test kits. No idea the actual statistics. And best of all, no idea if you have truly recovered, if you survive an infection with Corona Virus.

Did I mention the 43% will exponentially increase as we come near the election date? Yeah, it has a variable ( .43y ), it will fluctuate. Unfortunately, it does not and cannot go down. It only goes up. And 100% chance of an encounter with Corona Virsu, is not the highest number. Because you can get the virus twice, and it can stack with the flu or pneumonia.

August will be interesting :)

[wordwender]

Mistakes Were Made

Chris Dornin, founder of Citizens for Criminal Justice Reform, sent a letter to sentinelsource.com paraphrasing lawyers challenging Ohio sex offender registration: “The shaming list perpetuates dangerous myths, creates a false sense of security, misuses police resources, harms and destabilizes former offenders and thus increases the risk of recidivism.”

These unintentional consequences of sex offender registries are well known, despite all the flawed information floating around about this particular crime and its perpetrators. But, like riding a tiger: as bad as it is, it is risky to get off. No one wants to appear soft on sex offenders.

Still, sooner or later, someone is going to have to have the courage to stand up and say, “These registries only make things worse.”

[john-watson--221b]

Watching 'Human Swarm'.

This documentary is utterly idiotic.

Data collection method is flawed, and they are merely interpreting the evidence to back up a preconceived conclusion. 

It's standard biology. Little, if nothing, to suggest humans function like herd animals.

Morons.

- SH.

[thecommongoodusa-blog]

Does the Texas Voter ID Law Discriminate Against Blacks, Hispanics?

Rosa Ramirez, The National Journal - [...] The Texas voter-identification law, which was signed by Republican Gov. Rick Perry, requires voters to show one of four types of accepted identifications to cast a ballot: a driver’s license, military identification card, U.S. citizenship certificate that contains a photograph, or a gun permit.

Those who lack a driver’s license, passport, or military identification can get a voter-identification card for free from the state’s Public Safety Department, according to the attorney general of Texas's website. But even if Texans can get the card for free, some of them would need to travel more than 100 miles, sometimes in extreme weather, each way. Martinez Fischer said that 70 counties have no DPS office. “These folks, very few of them have cars, have reliable cars, [or] can get off work,” state Sen. Carlos Uresti, a Democrat from San Antonio, said in his testimony.

Martinez Fischer, a leading critic of the law, said the state showed little evidence that rampant in-person voter fraud has taken place. Since the 2008 and 2010 elections, there have been two cases of voter impersonation. One of those cases, he said, raised a question about whether the person had themens rea, or her state of mind, to commit voter fraud. He charged legislators with passing the law based on one criminal prosecution at the expense of thousands.

Representatives for the states, however, insist that voter-identification requirements are needed to protect the integrity of the ballot. Republican state Rep. Jose Aliseda has said there’s a public perception of fraud. “They do not have confidence in the system. They take the position, 'Why vote if my vote’s going to be canceled out by a fraudulent vote?' " Aliseda told NPR last week. Sen. Tommy Williams, who supports the law, testified that his grandfather died in 1935, but ballots continued to be cast in his name. As to how many Texans will be affected, those numbers remain to be seen. Both sides have charged the other with presenting “flawed” data to gauge the extent of the impact.

The Justice Department argues the number involves about 1.5 million people. But Texas officials say that number is highly inflated, with the truer count closer to 795,000. “No matter whose side you want to believe … we can at least say there will be Texans impacted—we know that,” Martinez Fischer said.

Read the full story at The National Journal