The new lines spell doom for Bob Turner.
I wrote a short post yesterday touching on Gary Ackerman's possibly-shrinking signifigance in the redistricting debate: republicans want him out, while democrats and Judge Mann have shrunk or eliminated his district, depending on how you look at it.
I focused on Ackerman because he's been in office since 1986, has faced little competition for the seat, is the 28th-ranked House member by seniority, was the chair on the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia and is now its ranking member. In other words, he's not a huge deal but he has some prominence and it's interesting to see how this redistricting process affects him.
But Ackerman's opposite in each of these scenarios has been Bob Turner. Turner, who replaced Anthony Weiner in a special election last year following the latter politician's "sexting" scandal, has had some brief prominence over the past year. Nationally, the election was framed as a referendum on President Obama (a dubious assertion, but one that was widely accepted.) Locally, he's tried everything he can to stay in his constituents' conscious. And in the Republican scenario, Turner would have at least had a fighting chance.
The newly-designed Mann maps, however, are a different story, and is passed, Turner would face an uphill battle in his bid for reelection. And on some level, this makes sense: Turner isn't just the newest representative, with the least experience; he has no prior experience in government whatsoever.
Republicans, though, were certainly hoping that redistricting would provide Turner a better shot. I wrote a slightly longer piece about how that election was a missed opportunity for Democrats, and how it could come back to bite them after redistricting. But it appears that with the new maps the loss might not be as severe. As the Daily Kos points out, Turner's district has been torn to pieces, with some of it going into David Weprin territory, and some if it absorbed by majority-black districts, who would be unlikely to vote for Turner or any other republican over a democratic candidate.
Turner says he's running, no matter what. The only hope he has, though, is if the current maps are not the final ones. Indeed, legislators have a shot at putting together their own districts: they must have maps ready and signed by March 12, three days before the three-judge panel in charge of approving maps in the event legislators can't get something done. And although Governor Cuomo has threatened to veto "hyper-partisan" maps, it is possible that he would deem acceptable slightly altered maps from the ones previously submitted by both the senate and assembly.
But it's likely that the current maps will be used. And if that's the case, both Ackerman and Turner are faced with a more precarious position than is desirable for either candidate.