#half assed handicapping

[railraptor]

Happy Derby Day!!

Firstly, picks!

Humana Distaff: Paulassilverlining, Carina Mia

Churchill Distaff Turf Mile: Miss Temple City, Linda, Harmonize

Pat Day Mile: Uncontested, No Dozing

American Turf: Good Samaritan, Oscar Performance

Churchill Downs Stakes: Clearly Now, Masochistic

Woodford Reserve: Bal a Bali, Beach Patrol

Kentucky Derby: MCCRAKEN would be my top pick here. Also Classic Empire and Irish War Cry.

And I like Eminent and Churchill in the 2000 Guineas. And I’m looking forward to what Seventh Heaven ends up doing this year, after she beat up on the field of the Jockey Club Stakes. Presumably she’ll go for the longer races and Minding will keep to the 8-10 furlong races-I’ve heard that she could go either to the Queen Anne or the Prince of Wales. She’s a fun filly to watch, too.

But I’m getting distracted-Derby Day! Oh, and I just saw that Miss Temple City isn’t running after all. Drat. But yeah, let’s see if I can pick my third winner in the Derby this year. It’s my 20th year watching it-can’t believe that. I am so old XD

[railraptor]

Oaks Day Picks...

Super quick so as not to overthink....

La Troienne Stakes: Paid Up Subscriber, Streamline

Alysheba Stakes: Bird Song, Noble Bird

Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes: Pure Sensation, Green Mask

Eight Belles Stakes: Union Strike, Benner Island

Edgewood Stakes: Is La Coronel definitely scratched out of here? She doesn’t show as being so on twinspires, but if she is we’ll go with some long-ish shots, Journey Home, Proctor’s Ledge and Emphatically. Otherwise I doubt anything in this field could touch her.

Kentucky Oaks: Farrell, Paradise Woods (Vexatious and Lockdown underneath, though)

Should be a nice day of racing, even if I sometimes hate watching NBC’s coverage of racing. I don’t care about clothes, or hats, or celebrities that are there. I just want the racing and the horses and the people who KNOW what they’re talking about, please.

[railraptor]

Day Two of Breeders' Cup 2014

Meh, I give up. Closing my eyes, throwing darts and going with heart picks this year.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: Feathered/Majestic Presence/Take Charge Brandi

Breeders' Cup Filly/Mare Turf: Just the Judge/Dayatthespa/Abaco (I would like Dank more if she'd run since Royal Ascot, although Magician won last year's Turf after a similar layoff...I wouldn't be stunned to see her win, is my point).

Breeders' Cup Filly/Mare Sprint: Judy the Beauty/Sweet Reason

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint: No Nay Never/Casper Netscher

Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Carpe Diem

Breeders' Cup Turf: Main Sequence/Flintshire/Imagining (I'm intrigued by Chiquita, especially if the two week turnaround and flight don't do her in, if they can keep her in a straight line. But that's too many ifs for me).

Breeders' Cup Sprint: Rich Tapestry/Palace

Breeders' Cup Mile: Toronado

Breeders' Cup Classic: Shared Belief/Tonalist/Toast of New York

Yep, the only horse I feel really invested in is Toronado, who I've followed for over two years, and who I always root for. Everything else just seems so evenly matched and I feel so detached from the whole thing that I just can't seem to get too interested. As long as everyone makes it back to their stalls in one piece, that's kind of all I want today.

[railraptor]

Day One of Breeders' Cup 2014

I don't know why, but I'm not feeling it this year. Maybe it's all the defections, but I'm less enthused than I've been in years.

PICKS

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: OK, so I like the way Wet Sail looked galloping at Santa Anita, and I like that he's by Henrythenavigator. War Envoy looked very good when second in the Champagne at Doncaster, and of course you have to respect the O'Brien/Moore combination in this race, but I'm mostly torn between Hootenanny and Imperia.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: I've liked Fed Biz for a long time, which also makes me a little leery. He's been running well this year, though, so I'm giving him an edge over Goldencents and Tapiture.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: Two of Chad Brown's fillies, Sivoliere and Tammy the Torpedo have looked good, as do Sunset Glow and Conquest Harlanate. I guess for the sake of choosing just one (this really does seem to be a wide open race), I'm going to close my eyes and point at....Sivoliere (GO Gary Stevens, WHOO)

Breeders' Cup Distaff: Close Hatches over Untapable and Don't Tell Sophia. I don't know what to make of her last start, and I've seen the comparison to Royal Delta come up, but I'm jumping with just my heart here, and I really want to see Close Hatches win this. (This tendency is why I rarely gamble :P).

And for old time's sake, I like Irish Surf/Big Kick in the Las Vegas Marathon Stakes (basically the Breeders' Cup Marathon).