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So You’re Saying There’s a Chance?!
With a walk off win against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars, a jubilant Josh Johnson and the Washington Redskins have extended their season’s relevance for another week, as they remain just a half game out of a wild card berth with two games to go.
While it was an ugly win against a struggling team with nothing to play for, it was their first win since losing Alex Smith, and came just week after all hope seemed to be lost. But will the win inspire enough confidence to give the team a legitimate shot at a playoff berth?
One thing is for sure, this defense never needed a confidence boost, as they have been amongst the leagues best aside from a couple bad outings. The defensive line is simply dominant, and the trio of Kerrigan, Allen, and Payne lived in the Jags backfield all day long. You can tell they have orchestrated stunts and blitzes that teams just don’t know how to handle.
But while the D-line leads the list of reasons they still have a shot, the O-line is the biggest reason they don’t. Their’s no one to blame here, you lose pro-bowlers and the line suffers. If you lose experienced backups, plugging the gaps becomes that much tougher.
As I’ve watched the offense struggle the past few weeks, and also at times with Alex Smith behind center, one strategic debate comes to mind. Should Jay Gruden have shrunk the playbook in terms of blocking schemes after losing Sheriff and Lavao?
He has always looked to pull guards, run intricate screens, and get his big guys out in space. It has honestly been one of his greatest strengths as an offensive-minded coach, and the reason the skins always ranked highly in rushing statistics.
But when you lose those star players, like Sheriff, Morgan Moses, or Trent Williams, you’re replacing them with players who simply aren’t as capable of getting to the block in the same time, with the same power. Not to mention the oft overlooked intellect and experience it takes to actually play the positions, pick up the blitz, pass off rushers and make the right block, ect.
As a result, AP, despite his career-long ability to fall forward for a few yards, has more negative rushing plays than any back in the league. It is also not unfair to say that asking reserve lineman to be so mobile against the Texans beastly defensive line is what cost Alex Smith his season, and maybe his career. Clowney and Watt are not players you want to get too fancy with, and they showed why.
Peterson’s leadership and pure desire last weak was evident, but even he can’t will this team to victory unless Josh Johnson can figure out a way to stretch the field. Johnson proved his gamesmanship against the Jags, finding ways to move the chains, and he actually made some really nice throws, but he didn’t show anything that would ever have a secondary on it’s heels, and that is the first step to opening up mid range throws across the middle of the field.
This will be a huge problem against the Tennessee Titans, who are riding a winning streak, have everything still to play for, with a running back that has all of a sudden become unstoppable. They also boast a defense that has better season statistics than the Redskins.
That said, the Skins D matches up well with the Titans, and is capable of containing a weak passing game solely with their secondary, allowing them to stack the box as well to neutralize Henry. The Titans best response may be to try and get Dion Lewis out in space to test the linebackers, and I fear he’ll be the one to spark some big plays.
The Titans have also struggled in the red zone overall this season, although not at all in recent weeks, and a balanced Redskins defense could keep the field goal kicker busy.
Unfortunately, that Titans D is really good too, and despite weak corners, the Redskins don’t have the talent out wide to make the big plays. Crowder could put together a nice yardage game, but it is hard to see the Redskins putting up many points, let alone getting into the end zone at all.
It will be interesting to see how many more RPOs Gruden is currently working into the game plan. The Ravens and Seahawks have both proven at times this year that a run-dominant scheme can still be effective in the NFL, but can be done by a beat up makeshift line?
Unfortunately, as far as predictions are concerned, it looks to be Tennessee’s day. The skins D will show up, but game script will simply require too much from them, as the Titans cruise to 20-6 win.
Left that Baltimore game out, but bengals 🔥, Carolina 🔥, and my skins swole them chickens ass up. 🔥🔥🔥 #httr4life #httr🏈 #httrnation #httr❤️💛❤️💛 #washingtonredskins #redskinsnation #redskins #redskins4life https://www.instagram.com/p/Bnh3RMKBsBo3ELCJClO3-vCpXx-e1qzwMHeT-00/?utm_source=ig_tumblr_share&igshid=u4ryj7kre8mi
Ranking the Redskins Top 5 Pickups
Another year of NFL football is upon us, and while we’ve had a few stagnant years as the Kirk Cousins era proved to be good, but not good enough, in comes Alex Smith, Derrius Guice and others to give the new look ‘Skins squad a real shot at winning the stacked NFC East. Let’s take a quick a look at the major offseason acquisitions.
1) QB Alex Smith
Alex Smith had the talent of the 1st pick in the NFL draft. Throughout the course of his career teams have decided he wasn’t good enough to keep. He battled TD for TD with Drew Brees in a thrilling 2011 NFC Championship game, and was shipped out two seasons later. Last year he threw for his first-ever 4,000-yard season and was a fluky last second playoff loss away from meeting the Patriots in the Divisional round, a team he dismantled on national television earlier in the year. And yet, off he went again.
What he brings to Washington is a strong arm, nimble feet, and all the intangibles a coach can ask for. He commands the huddle, moves the chains, keeps the ball, and routinely sets his team up to put points on the board. He has a great snap count, and uses it when he needs it most, often to convert before an important third down, or to get a 3rd-and-long into a manageable distance.
If you remember week 3 of last season, we put together a great game, but gave him too much time in the end. I always felt as if we had a good chance with Kirk leading a game-winning drive, but with Alex Smith I see a good chance of us having the ball and the lead late. Although Kirk could have a huge year himself, I think we needed to end his chapter here in DC, and have found the man to do it right.
2.) RB Derrius Guice
Finally... a complete three down back. Rob Kelley was a bull, but not as nimble in the passing game. Chris Thompson is a burner, but can get much in the trenches, and now Guice, a proven star at LSU, comes in to connect the dots, and gives the Skins a chance to open up the playbook on first and second down. He showcases strength in the trenches, a Marshawn-like stiff arm at the second level, and break away speed to take it to the house. Alex Smith is vital to keeping us in the hunt, but Guice is the player who has the potential to put us over the top. If the fans take to him like the players have, he could very soon be a fan favorite in Washington.
3.) Da’Ron Payne
I haven’t seen many defensive players, with the exception of maybe Jadaveon Clowney and JJ Watt, enter the league as the most physically dominant guy on the team. To put it in perspective, he bench pressed 460 pounds in high school, and has been turning baby fat to muscle ever since. Fast forward to the combine a few months ago, when he ran a 4.9 40 at 312 pounds. Consider that he caught a touchdown pass, and scored multiple defensive touchdowns on both interceptions and fumbles, and you begin to realize that he’s not your average lineman. More impressive than any of this is that he dominated the national championship game against a daunting Georgia front. Linking up with Alabama teammate Jonathon Allen, these two will assert themselves early, and barring any bad injuries, Payne strikes me as a surefire Pro Bowler, perhaps before anyone else on this list.
4.) Paul Richardson
Like Alex Smith, I think his generic name, (think inverted Freakonomics) may have people thinking “who is he?” but let’s be clear, he’s and up-and-coming receiver in the league and a great addition to the receiving core.
He’s drawn comparisons to Desean Jackson, and although I think it exaggerates his speed a bit, it underestimates his great hands, his ability to run a more diverse route tree, and his ability to win balls in the air. My hope is that Gruden will use his speed in the same way, to sprint to the second level and make a move, while clearing room for Jordan Reed and Crowder underneath.
Alex Smith has quietly become one of the games best deep passers, (think Tyreke Hill) and will be able to consistently find Richardson for chunk gains. I’d still like to see the team add an all out burner, (the Aldrick Robinson role) but Richardson should come in and have a big impact right away.
5.) Pernell McPhee
He’s gotten lost in the shuffle of new players, perhaps because he is not likely to start, but he is the most proven acquisition of them all, having put in successful stints with the Ravens and the Bears. He can play traditional linebacker or put a hand in the dirt, and is able to play almost anywhere in the front seven. This not only protects the team from last year’s injury woes, but also gives them the ability to bulk up around the goal line and bring more exotic blitzes on the edge. The signing takes a page out of Tom Coughlin’s playbook, and you could see the Skins shuffle D-Line and edge rushers like the Jags. If the motto this year is to be the biggest baddest defense, McPhee is certainly a step in the right direction.
Johnathon Allen’s Injury Explained From Firsthand Experience
When Johnathon Allen has suffered a Lisfranc fracture in his foot, I knew his season was over. The Redskins organization surprisingly labeled him out for 3-4 weeks, which simply is not possible.
I suffered a Lisfranc fracture in 2004 and missed an entire calendar year, both soccer and basketball seasons in my first year at Emerson College. Like Allen, I had 2 pieces of metal hardware inserted through the bones of my foot. Unlike Allen, my initial X-rays did not show the break, and so I continued to play on the foot nearly a month with very little improvement, before finding a great Patriots physician to surgically repair the foot.
While most following Allen have now declared him out for the season) there seems to be some speculation from the Redskins organization that the rookie sensation will be back to finish the year.
Here is why that will not happen.
The Lisfranc fracture breaks a metatarsal in the middle of the foot away from the tarsus. With it often comes ligament damage, or in a worst-case-scenario, ligament tears that the pull pieces of the bone with them.
The injury was common in old war days when men would be thrown from their horses, only to have their feet still caught in the stirrup. My injury occurred planting the foot to leap over a sliding goalkeeper only to have the foot crushed during takeoff.
In Allen’s case, they have determined the break was clean, which is surely good news long-term, but doesn’t reduce the time need to get back to full speed. The surgery requires metal screws to hold bones in place and allow the ligaments to heal. In my case, perhaps partially due to the extended time on the injured foot, I was unable to put any pressure on the screws, meaning I was on crutches for 6 months.
Fourteen years and many medical advancements later, it appears Allen wont have to endure that lengthy of a stint off of his foot, but a similar timetable should be allowed for those ligaments deep in the foot to heal.
It is also important to note that unlike any ankle or knee sprain, there is no way to target or strengthen these ligaments. It simply is a matter of time and rest.
The good news is that with a seemingly worse version of the injury, I was able to play two sports collegiately the following three years, at a level I would say was around 90% of what I had been prior. I noticed a small loss in sprinting speed and lateral agility, which should be keys to the final stages of Allen’s rehab.
Over the course of time, I have found it difficult to stay healthy. The initial feeling is the painful version of an unscratchable itch, that can make foot feel like a painfully clenched fist. It is hard not to compensate when walking, running, or even standing. After 6 months on crutches, one leg looked like belonged to Diego Maradona, the other like a dangling sock.
Allen will have all the medical experts there to aid in his recovery, but in order to preserve his career potential, the staff should look to lay him up for the full mending period, then slowly work back his entire leg to establish equal strength and balance.
The injury has potential to affect his burst off the line, his agility juking to get to the passer, and his ability to maintain balance against 300-pound offensive line thrust upwards into his upper body.
Knowing firsthand what it feels like to have an entire athletic career held hostage by tiny little bones in the foot, I will be wishing you a speedy recovery, and can attest that a strong return is very possible.
Chris Russell has a pretty... pretty wild theory.
The Timeout that Cost Jay Gruden the Chess Match
You have to feel for Jay after nearly calling a game-winning touchdown pass to Josh Doctson. He and Jordan Reed ran great routes and had the Chiefs on their heels.
The error occurred before the play, when Jay seems to panic a bit as the clock runs under a minute and calls timeout with 57 seconds left. I looked at the clock and it instantly gave me the feeling I get right before hastily making a costly endgame chess move. Let me explain.
Knowing the likelihood that you will pass the ball on your next play, you leave open a good possibility that an incompletion stops the clock and gives your opponent another possession. When the play call is a pass to the end zone, you 100% guarantee it.
Perhaps Jay went with a reverse psychology approach: call the timeout, make them think we will keep moving incrementally closer, and take the shot. Perhaps the extra time on the clock pulled the defense to the line of scrimmage and made room for Doctson to score.
The problem even then is that it isn’t a killshot if you the opponent can get up and try again. The score would have forced KC to score a touchdown at the other end, but with such a banged up defense, the Chiefs may have had time to go the distance anyways.
So what were the traditional options?
1) Let the play clock run down, then call time out. Take a shot to the end zone, and kick a field goal if unsuccessful. A safe play that at least ensures overtime barring a missed field goal.
2.) Get everyone back to the line of scrimmage quickly, run a draw or sneak to pick up the first then call timeout.
3.) Call Timeout. Choose a reliable short yardage play to get the first down and spike the ball after. Keep the drive alive with a chance still to win it with a touchdown
*Despite limited time on the field in the second half, the offense had been very efficient. It may have been worth leaving it in their hands with something safer than a jump ball.
A non-traditional, yet very interesting option to consider:
-Call the timeout. Take the shot on third, go for it on fourth.
This one occurred to me afterwards. On the road playing a team no one expects you to beat, and you want to gamble to win it in regulation. Why not double down and keep pushing for the win?
Is Hope Back in Washington? A Look at the Skins Three Weeks In
After watching two former Redskins offensive coordinators put up a combined 80 points on Thursday night football, and with a tough test against the Raiders looming, I assumed this piece would be asking questions of a team moving in reverse. That was before I saw the Redskins announce themselves on the national stage with a dominant 27-10 win at FedEx, shutting down one of the best offenses in the game.
There’s no question the offseason approach was to bolster the defense and rely on offensive depth, and after three weeks it all appears to be going as planned.
Chris Thompson has battled through his injuries to become one of the most electrifying players in the game (as can be statistically argued with an incredible 13 yards per touch). Ryan Grant has been a model of consistency, and Josh Doctson is starting to get his feet under him, as evident with a jump ball touchdown he made look ridiculously easy. Vernon Davis has been excellent, and is proving to be much more than just a way to keep Jordan Reed healthy. I also have a hunch that in the next few weeks you will see a star born in Mack Brown. He strikes me as a man driven by his destiny, and opportunity is knocking in our banged up backfield. He has incredible open field speed, and with the athleticism of our line, I could see him exploiting a couple holes for game-changing plays.
On the other side of the ball, the defense looks tenacious, almost ravenous at times, from DJ Swearinger’s profanity-laced pregame condemnations of his opponents, to the menacing scowls of approval from defensive guru Jim Tomsula. But while many defenses take on this persona to prove their desire to dominate, the Redskins have the players to actually do it.
Ryan Kerrigan and Josh Norman lead the way with perennial Pro Bowl talent, and the team’s signal caller, Zach Brown, is the complete package, with the ball awareness and lateral speed the team will need to neutralize runners like Ezekiel Elliot and (knock on wood) Kareem Hunt. Swearinger gives the team that Taylor-esque presence in the secondary they have so desperately searched for since his passing (RIP). The two ‘Bama rooks are showing their pedigree right off the bat, and there is a whole crop of youthful talent competing for bigger roles week in and week out. The improved play of cornerbacks Breeland, Fuller, and Dunbar will also give defensive coordinator Greg Manusky versatility when matching up with his opponents. The former Colts DC had previously served two seasons a Redskins Linebackers coach (2001, 2016), and has proven thus far that he belongs in the coordinator role.
As for Jay, he never ceases to amaze me. I always use this blog to urge patience to ‘Skins fans who are rightfully running out of it, because for some reason I just believe in the guy, and that sure wasn’t the case when he first brought his goofy smirk to Washington. If you are like me, and believe that Kirk’s “fumble” in week 1 was actually an incomplete pass, this team could potentially still be undefeated.
ENTER KANSAS CITY
Washington would be foolish to celebrate Sunday’s glory for too long, as they now travel to Kansas City to take on one of only two undefeated teams left in the league. Vegas has the Chiefs as 9-point favorites, but I believe the strengths of each team will lead to a much closer contest. Here are matchups to watch on each side of the ball.
Redskins O-Line vs. Kansas City D-Line
Considered among the best in the league for their respective sides of the ball, this battle in the trenches will determine if Kirk can get going in Arrowhead. If he can, the Chief’s secondary has actually been more susceptible to big plays since losing Eric Berry in Week 1. If Jordan Reed can suit up, look for him to exploit Berry’s replacement.
Josh Norman vs. Tyreke Hill
This is an interesting matchup for Josh, who I think would prefer a receiver with the size/speed combination, like an Dez or OBJ, to a straight speed guy like Hill. If Norman can lock him up, it will allow Manusky to shift focus to stifling TE Travis Kelce. The problem is, all it takes is one mistake to send Hill to the house.
Game Prediction- KC -23-17
This is simply one of the best teams in the game, playing in a place they usually win. I think this game is an excellent chance to see what the Redskins can do in a playoff-like atmosphere, and the type of early test that will have them fully prepared for a playoff run. I think Hunt, Hill, and Kelce do just enough in this one, and that the opportunistic Chiefs defense and the safe play of Alex Smith allows them to win the turnover battle and narrowly squeak this one out.
For all the bettors out there, (not anything I condone or promote), an interesting play here would be to tease the lines by five points and take Washington with the new spread of +14 and the under with 54 total points. The less conservative could try just a two-point teaser to give the Redskins an 11-point cushion and 51 total points.
Season Prediction
If you had asked me after Week 2, I would have been confident that the home loss to Philly and a tough non-division schedule would mean an uphill battle to a playoff berth. Having since seen the Redskins knock off one of the toughest opponents on that schedule, both a division championship and a wildcard birth seem more plausible.
That said, the schedule and parity in the division makes it appear as if it will be another year that only the division winner will move on from the NFC East, and two key stretches will determine whether the Redskins can be that team.
The first is three week stretch after the bye week, in which they host the 49ers and Dallas, two home games a playoff team needs to win, and also travel to Philly, a game they have to win to stay on track. Assuming they lose in Kansas City, pulling off a run in these games would position them at 5-2, and likely give them the confidence to pull it off.
The second important stretch is the three non-division games week 14-16, in which they travel to L.A. to take on the Chargers, then host the Cardinals and Broncos. Skins fans can hope that the Chargers and Cardinals have lost relevancy by then, which would make 3-0 here much more likely.
MAKE A PREDICTION ALREADY!!
Although there is a good possibility that the Giants spoil the party again in the Meadowlands in Week 17, I actually have the Skins beating Denver week 16 to clinch a playoff berth. There’s something special going on with this team, and I’ll be the overly passionate homer that says this is not only the year we get back to the postseason, but it is the year we actually get a playoff win!!!