The Timeout that Cost Jay Gruden the Chess Match
You have to feel for Jay after nearly calling a game-winning touchdown pass to Josh Doctson. He and Jordan Reed ran great routes and had the Chiefs on their heels.
The error occurred before the play, when Jay seems to panic a bit as the clock runs under a minute and calls timeout with 57 seconds left. I looked at the clock and it instantly gave me the feeling I get right before hastily making a costly endgame chess move. Let me explain.
Knowing the likelihood that you will pass the ball on your next play, you leave open a good possibility that an incompletion stops the clock and gives your opponent another possession. When the play call is a pass to the end zone, you 100% guarantee it.
Perhaps Jay went with a reverse psychology approach: call the timeout, make them think we will keep moving incrementally closer, and take the shot. Perhaps the extra time on the clock pulled the defense to the line of scrimmage and made room for Doctson to score.
The problem even then is that it isn’t a killshot if you the opponent can get up and try again. The score would have forced KC to score a touchdown at the other end, but with such a banged up defense, the Chiefs may have had time to go the distance anyways.
So what were the traditional options?
1) Let the play clock run down, then call time out. Take a shot to the end zone, and kick a field goal if unsuccessful. A safe play that at least ensures overtime barring a missed field goal.
2.) Get everyone back to the line of scrimmage quickly, run a draw or sneak to pick up the first then call timeout.
3.) Call Timeout. Choose a reliable short yardage play to get the first down and spike the ball after. Keep the drive alive with a chance still to win it with a touchdown
*Despite limited time on the field in the second half, the offense had been very efficient. It may have been worth leaving it in their hands with something safer than a jump ball.
A non-traditional, yet very interesting option to consider:
-Call the timeout. Take the shot on third, go for it on fourth.
This one occurred to me afterwards. On the road playing a team no one expects you to beat, and you want to gamble to win it in regulation. Why not double down and keep pushing for the win?