#hurricane forecast

[creativemedianews]

Hurricane Nadine's chances increased as Florida braces

Hurricane Nadine's chances increased as Florida braces #Atlanticstorms #Floridaweather #hurricaneforecast

Hurricane Nadine's chances increased as Florida braces

[rjzimmerman]

Scientists predict seventh straight above-average hurricane season

Researchers at Colorado State University are calling for 19 named Atlantic storms, including nine hurricanes.

Excerpt from this story from the Washington Post:

Researchers at Colorado State University are calling for the seventh consecutive above-average Atlantic hurricane season. The scientists, who study large-scale features of the atmosphere and the ocean, are already spotting signs that point to a season even busier than that of 2021. It’s their 39th year issuing preseason forecasts.

Their outlook, published Thursday morning, calls for 19 named storms, compared with a recent average of 14.4.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season produced 21 named storms, third most on record, exhausting all of the names of the National Hurricane Center’s conventional naming list. Although Colorado State is predicting two fewer storms this year, it is calling for a more active season in terms of metrics that take into account storm intensity and duration.

“The team predicts that 2022 hurricane activity will be about 130% of the average season from 1991-2020,” the outlook states. “By comparison, 2021’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season.”

The outlook also calls for a 71 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall somewhere on U.S. soil. Major hurricanes are those that reach Category 3 strength or greater, containing maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or more.

The risk of a major hurricane along the East and Gulf coasts and in the Caribbean is substantially elevated, compared with the 1990 to 2020 average, the outlook said.

Unusually warm sea surface temperatures and the lack of an El Niño pattern are among the factors influencing the university’s outlook. The team uses a statistical model based on 25 to 40 years’ worth of data.

Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are running a general 1 to 5 degrees above average, too, which translates to considerably more “ocean heat content” to fuel tropical systems. Of course, it remains to be seen whether waters remain that unusually warm in the months ahead.

Low wind shear and unusually warm waters could later prove a recipe for rapidly intensifying storms. Wood and her colleagues found high-end rapid intensification events, during which tropical cyclones increased by at least 57 mph (50 knots) in 24 hours, have increased significantly in frequency over the past three decades — probably caused in large part by human-induced climate change.

[ako142]

INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN 2PM: Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Irma is strengthened even more now with powerful winds of 185mph, and bursts of up to 230mph. It is located at latitude 16.9N, longitude 58.4O, moves west at the rate of 14mph and has a pressure of 926mb. Irma is about to become the strongest hurricane in the history of the Atlantic. Puerto Rico must finish preparations ...

[sm2024]

Hurricane Risk Areas: Understanding Vulnerability and Taking Precautions

Hurricane Risk Areas: Understanding Vulnerability and Taking Precautions

Certain geographic areas are more susceptible to hurricanes than others. Understanding which regions are at higher risk and taking appropriate precautions is crucial for safeguarding lives and property. Identify the Hurricane risk areas and plan accordingly.

Identifying High-Risk Areas

Several factors contribute to an area’s vulnerability to hurricanes:

Coastal Location: Coastal areas are directly exposed to storm surge, high winds, and heavy rainfall.

Low Elevation: Low-lying areas are more susceptible to flooding from storm surge and heavy rainfall.

Proximity to Major Storm Tracks: Regions located along the primary paths of hurricanes are at higher risk.

Specific High-Risk Regions

Some of the areas most vulnerable to hurricanes include:

The Gulf Coast: States along the Gulf Coast, such as Florida, Louisiana, and Texas, are frequently impacted by hurricanes.

The Atlantic Coast: States along the Atlantic Coast, from North Carolina to Maine, are also at risk.

The Caribbean: Islands in the Caribbean are highly vulnerable to hurricanes.

Factors Increasing Hurricane Risk

Rapid Development: Locations experiencing rapid population or infrastructure growth may have increased vulnerability if buildings, roads, and other infrastructure are not designed and built to withstand hurricane-force winds and potential flooding. This is especially concerning in low-lying coastal areas. Climate Change: Warmer sea surface temperatures and rising sea levels due to climate change could make coastal areas even more vulnerable to stronger storms and increased storm surge. Inadequate Preparedness: Underfunded local services or lack of awareness and preparedness among residents contribute to risk.

Taking Precautions in High-Risk Areas

If you live in a hurricane risk area, take the following steps:

Develop a Family Emergency Plan: Discuss evacuation routes, meeting points, and communication strategies.

Assemble a Disaster Kit: Include water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, and a first-aid kit.

Secure Your Home: Trim trees, clear gutters, and consider installing hurricane shutters.

Obtain Flood Insurance: Standard homeowners insurance typically does not cover flood damage.

Stay Informed: Monitor weather forecasts and heed warnings from local authorities.

Understanding the specific risks in your area and taking proactive precautions can significantly reduce your vulnerability during a hurricane. Stay vigilant, stay prepared, and stay safe.

[meteorologistaustenlonek]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Southwestern Gulf: A tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across eastern Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua and adjacent marine areas. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday with no significant increase in organization. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[meteorologistaustenlonek]

BULLETIN NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

…FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE… …LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY…

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning.

[imabug]

Hurricane season 2024

Fresh off the presses is the National Hurricane Center‘s forecast for the 2024 hurricane seasion. NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10%…

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[meteorologistaustenlonek]

"The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year's overall forecast for a near-normal season.

After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for #ElNino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity." @NOAA

NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

El Nino, above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage