Alex Kokcharov: Russian invasion of Kazakhstan negates Moscow's "stability" narrative
Events in Kazakhstan in the past week have undermined Russian leader Vladimir Putin's argument that Russia has a right to a "sphere of influence" in the former Soviet space, Alex Kokcharov, Principal Country Risk Research Analyst at IHS Markit, tweets. Putin's notion of Russia's "area of privileged interest" is based on a narrative that Moscow acts as a "stabilising force" in the region, Kokcharov notes. If Russia is allowed to keep countries in its sphere of influence, they will be stable, with low levels of violence, Moscow argues. Yet, events in Kazakhstan have demonstrated that being in the Russian sphere of influence does not mean that internal stability is guaranteed. This negates Moscow's long-professed narrative of prioritising stability, Kokcharov points out. Putin's claim for a Russian sphere of influence looks very weak now, because it is evident that the promised "stability" can only be achieved by wholesale mass repression, as demonstrated in Belarus in 2021, Kokcharov concludes.
