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Future of Robotics

by In-Jee Lee

October 16, 2014

During a morning session on the third day of the 15th annual World Knowledge Forum in Seoul, South Korea, leading roboticists discussed the future of robotics and potential consumer applications. The presentation included both video and live demonstrations by Ben Goertzel, chairman of OpenCog Foundation, and Mark Tilden, robotics physicist, industrialist, and design consultant.

Mr. Goertzel and Mr. Tilden are part of a design team operating out of Hong Kong, which develops robotic facial expressions, body movements, intelligence, interactions with humans, and consciousness.

“The fact is that there are methods for testing new technology and new marketplaces,” said Mr. Tilden, “and Hong Kong is the best place to make this happen.”

One of the main objectives that the team has been working to develop and improve is realism. With advances in perception, memory, and prediction in robots, the results have been astonishing.

Speaking on the uncanny resemblance of one robot to a real human, Mr. Goertzel said, “There’s one humanoid robot that David was working on, and when you walk past it, you think there’s really a guy there. And then you do a double take and realize, oh, that’s actually a robot.”

According to the panelists, robots are now able to burp, fart, sing in French, dance to Gangnam Style, and tell silly jokes. This leads to robots being viewed as a more commercially viable product.

“We found a robot that didn’t take itself seriously, and the customers loved it,” said Mr. Tilden.

However, according to Mr. Goertzel, there are still some obstacles that need to be addressed.

“It has elementary self awareness,” he said, while viewing a demonstration of Zoidstein, a miniature robot modeled after Albert Einstein. “It identifies toys as a young child would.”

Mr. Goertzel remarked on the difficulty of developing robot-human interaction.

“Will it obey the questions, will it give me nonsense, will it give me a lecture on the meaning of death,” he mused.  “We’re improving the intelligence of the dialogue.”

The evidence of this improvement was apparent during a video demonstration of Zoidstein’s capabilities. The robot was able to recognize emotions based on fluctuations in the human voice.

Despite these advances, robots are still elusive to the average consumer. Reducing costs, reducing complexities, and increasing public exposure are steps that Mr. Goertzel and Mr. Tilden are applying to their marketing campaign, making it more accessible to the average consumer.

“We knew it would be successful,” said Mr. Tilden, recalling a demonstration in front of an audience of children in Australia, “because kids were fighting over the remote controls.”

With an eye on the future, the potential commercial applications are endless. According to both panelists, possible industries which may incorporate robotics include healthcare and the service industry.

 “We will have robo-touring, robo-shopping, and robot executive assistants,” Mr. Tilden predicted.

Some applications are even available now, according to Mr. Goertzel. He discussed the work of his colleague, David Hansen.

“His Zeno robot, his little boy robot, is used to teach autistic children,” he said.

Ultimately, robots may even provide home nursing to elderly family members. Mr. Tilden looks forward to the future of robotics.

“It’s something everyone might actually appreciate. Something that comes out, cleans the house, organizes your pills, and puts itself away. You can basically stay at home, living comfortably and with dignity for the rest of your life."

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Korean Unification: Bonanza or Risk

by In-Jee Lee

October 15, 2014

Panelists:

Chenggang Xu, Quoin Professor in Economic Development, University of Hong Kong

Stefan Schaible, Deputy CEO, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, member of the GEC

Josef Brada, Professor of Economics Emeritus, Arizona State University

On the second day of the 15th annual World Knowledge Forum held in Seoul, South Korea, the potential for reunification of the Korean peninsula was discussed by a panel of experts from around the globe. The panelists, including Josef Brada, Professor of Economics Emeritus at Arizona State University, Stefan Schaible, Deputy CEO of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and member of the Global Executive Committee, and Chenggang Xu, Quoin Professor in Economic Development from the University of Hong Kong, offered different perspectives on reunification.

Mr. Schaible spoke from personal experience as a German citizen.

“Twenty-five years ago brought end to a regime of oppression and deprivation. For Korea, it is longer,” he said, adding that the political circumstances aren’t comparable. “The North,” he said, “is more complex.”

It was generally accepted, however, that a smooth transition would require the South Korea to take the reins. Another critical aspect the panelists addressed is the method of transitioning North Korea into a free market economy.

According to Mr. Brada, East Germany, like Southern Italy and the Southern United States, fell into the same trap of one side prospering while the other lagged behind after unification.

“East Germany got an early bump. The east is still heavily dependent on government  expenditures. Unemployment rates are high. Germans were willing to pay for this. Are Koreans willing to pay for it?” he asked.

Mr. Schaible suggested that North and South Korea might avoid these pitfalls.

“You in Korea are in a much better position than we were at that time. You are drawing from previous collapses of socialist countries,” he said.

Professor Xu, however, focused primarily on the economic transition necessary for North Korea. Using the contributions of Hong Kong to the development of the Chinese economy, he also highlighted differences in the situations.

Mr. Xu argued that South Korea, like Hong Kong, is quickly becoming a major financial center. This, he suggested, could play an important role in North Korea’s economic development following unification.

“South Korea has a GDP 110 times higher than the North,” said Mr. Xu. Reunification would also require the active participation of legal and financial institutions, with private enterprises doing much more than the government.

Mr. Brada discussed other potential difficulties in unifying Korea.

“North Korea is different from these other unifications in the sense that its a pretty militarized place, and not only do they have a military that’s big, you have a party and government apparatus that has a lot of people, too. What are you going to do with those people? Send them on vacation? Send them to an island?”

Mr. Brada continued in a somewhat negative tone by questioning whether there are any historical success stories of reunification.

“I didn’t mean to cool down anyone’s zeal for unification,” he said. “I meant to go in with eyes open. Don’t think we can’t make it.”

Despite the overall theme of the discussion centering around managing expectations, preparedness, and a slow economic transition for the North’s economy to join the South Korean economy, Mr. Schaible reminded everyone that unification is about more than just integrating economies - it’s integrating people.

When I was young,” Mr. Schaible recalled, “I could not really imagine a unified Germany. When I was sitting next to my daughter, she said she couldn’t imagine that Germany was ever divided. What a wonderful change in just one generation. I am convinced that this experience is not too far away from you in Korea, and that my grandchildren will not remember a divided Korea.”